Looking Forward to Cuts: A Simulation Decision Tool for Cutback Management

This study addresses managerial strategies to adapt public spending in anticipation of fiscal stress. It simulates a cutback to a federal agency, providing a decision tool that applies normative recommendations from the cutback management literature. Using agency data, we develop a menu of options that illustrate how different distributions of budget reductions affect organizational goals. We show five alternatives that consider the political, legal, and fiscal implications of the agency's responses to anticipated budgetary pressure. This simulation demonstrates that public agencies can apply existing data to generate rational and viable strategic plans for weathering fiscal stress.     

Unified Service Planning and Budgeting: The Next Generation of Service Management

Like many large cities, Minneapolis faces the challenges of declining intergovernmental revenue, federal and state restriction on actions, and increased service demands. However, unlike most other places, Minneapolis does not suffer from severe fiscal stress. It has managed this feat by making changes in the organizational structure, planning, and budgeting process. This allowed the development of a comprehensive and coordinated approach to service delivery in the city.     

The Role of Slack in Local Government Finances

The research presented here adopts an organizational approach to develop three regression models that examine why local governments accumulate slack in the form of unreserved fund balances, and what is the impact of slack resources on local governments' short‐term fiscal conditions and decisions about spending and revenues. Using data on Chicago suburban municipalities and their governments, the first model estimates the effects of long‐term and short‐term conditions (fiscal and governing) on unreserved fund balances. The second and third models examine the impact of slack resources and other factors on year‐end deficits or surpluses and changes in spending and own‐source revenues. The results show that ending balances, expenditures (size), and long‐term fiscal conditions have the greatest effect on fund balances, and that slack and current fiscal conditions have the greatest effect on ending balances and changes in revenues and spending.     

Reexamining the Relationship Between Fiscal Stress and Outsourcing

The determinants of outsourcing in local government are widely studied from a variety of frameworks. One concept consistently used to explain local government outsourcing is fiscal condition, with many noting that outsourcing is more likely when a local government’s fiscal condition declines into fiscal stress. Despite the ubiquity of this expectation in the outsourcing literature, several articles reviewed suggest that the findings for this relationship remain uncertain. As a result, the research presented in this article sought to examine and extend what is known about the relationship between fiscal stress and outsourcing in U.S. municipalities. The research includes previous measures of fiscal stress and adds new measures. In addition, it tries to overcome the limited theoretical testing of the relationship between fiscal stress and outsourcing by examining both direct and indirect effects of fiscal stress on outsourcing. It finds that municipalities in the United States that are experiencing fiscal stress are more likely to engage in outsourcing, particularly municipalities that are experiencing fiscal stress and have a positive evaluation of the external market to provide services.     

Decentralization,local governance and ‘recentralization’ in Africa

Although Many African states have pursued substantial decentralization reforms in the previous twenty years, many of these reforms are still experiencing problems in bringing about effective local governance. Often these problems grow from the difficulty in translating general reform initiatives into specific working arrangements at the local level that are effective in several key processes and operations. Specifically these include planning and capital investment, budgeting and fiscal management, personnel systems and management, and finance and revenue. A combination of central reluctance to relinquish authority in these key areas and the complexity of organizational redesign to support decentralization seem to explain these problems. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tax Equity Under Conditions of Fiscal Stress: The Case of the Property Tax

This paper takes a preliminary step toward specifying the relationshipbetween tax equity and fiscal stress by examining property taxassessment uniformity under conditions of fiscal stress. Thedeterminants of assessment uniformity are discussed, leadingto the development of a model of uniformity under conditionsof fiscal strees. The model is tested via cross-sectional regressionanalysis of state data no stress and uniformity. Stress is foundto influence unifomity, but the direction of that influenceis found to depend on the structure of the assessing system.     

The Impact of State Rainy Day Funds in Easing State Fiscal Crises During the 1990–1991 Recession

This article examines the degree to which rainy day funds eased the fiscal stress experienced by states during the 1990–1991 recession. In the first section, a state fiscal policy of neutrality over the business cycle is used as a benchmark for evaluating the use of budget stabilization funds. The next section looks at data from the last three recessions to see how recessions have affected the taxes and expenditures of states. A measure of degree of fiscal stress experienced by each state during the 1990–1991 recession is then calculated. These results are used to empirically investigate the impact of explicit state rainy day funds in easing state fiscal stress. Next, the article examines whether states that had rainy day funds in 1989 were more likely to have less fiscal stress, and whether the specific deposit and withdrawal provisions of these funds made a difference.     

State Rainy Day Funds and Fiscal Crises: Rainy Day Funds and the 1990–1991 Recession Revisited

The recession of the early 1980s prompted many states to establish budget stabilization (rainy day) funds. Initial examinations of rainy day funds find a limited impact by the funds in alleviating fiscal stress. In this article, we propose an enhanced model of rainy day fund impact. Using data from 48 states for the 1990–1991 recession, our analysis indicates that the presence of a number of structural factors and the maintenance of generally large balances in other funds entering recession helps to alleviate fiscal stress when a state's economy is in recession.     

Revisiting the (lack of) association between objective and subjective measures of local fiscal condition

Recent fiscal condition literature has been attentive to the consistency between subjective measures of local fiscal condition based on public officials' perceptions and their objective counterparts measured using financial data. Studies have found little evidence of a relationship between them, leading scholars to speculate flaws in measurement or intentional lack of association. This study reevaluates the issue by investigating intervening explanations for the absence of connection. Analyzing survey and audited financial data from 185 municipalities across 31 states, we identify various individual and organizational attributes that help clarify the association between the two types of fiscal condition measures.     

Conditional political budget cycles: a review of recent evidence

Until recently, most research on political budget cycles was based on the (often implicit) presumption that these cycles do not differ across countries. However, more recent studies focus on heterogeneity. This paper surveys studies examining the factors conditioning the occurrence and strength of manipulation of fiscal policy for electoral purposes, at the aggregate level or at the level of a particular type of government expenditure. Conditioning factors discussed include: the level of development, institutional quality, age and level of democracy, electoral rules and form of government, transparency of the political process, the presence of checks and balances, and fiscal rules.     

Organizational Strategy and the Outcomes of Fiscal Retrenchment in Major Cities in the United States

This study examines if organizational strategy—specifically strategy formulation and strategic stance—influences the outcomes of fiscal retrenchment in city governments. Fiscal retrenchment is defined here as the process of responding to a budget crisis. Analysis of data from a 2015 national survey of municipalities in the United States with a population of 50,000 or more indicates that a rational planning process is associated with fiscal recovery, whereas a defender strategy stance, which emphasizes organizational stability and efficiency, correlates with continuing fiscal difficulties. Examining the complex interactions between strategy formulation, strategic stance, and environmental turbulence, the empirical analysis indicates that a rational planning process that results in a defending stance is associated with slower fiscal recovery, but there is limited evidence that the relationship between strategy and fiscal recovery is dependent on external economic conditions.     

Implementing Fiscal Decentralization: A Case Study of a Regional Tax Agency in Italy

As a measure to enhance the fiscal autonomy of the region, in 2006 the Regional Government of Sardinia in Italy decided to establish a tax agency for managing regional taxes on holiday houses and boat and aircraft transit. Based on interviews conducted with the tax agency director and staff, this article traces the trajectory and outcome of events included in the implementation of this part of the regional government's fiscal policy. Drawing from this case, this article theorizes the process of implementing fiscal decentralization by addressing the issue of how fiscal policy decisions affect the management of tax agencies in the start‐up stage. Social mechanisms of learning, brokerage, and actor certification provide important linkages between fiscal policy choices and organizational change. On the whole, the research argument made in this article further contributes to institutionalist and processualist research trends in current research on organization studies and public management.     

Local Government Responses to Fiscal Stress: Evidence from the Public Education Sector

This article investigates local government responses to fiscal stress through the lens of the K–12 public education sector, examining two major policy options available to school districts for managing fiscal hardship: (1) cutting costs, especially through layoffs, and (2) raising revenues locally through voter referenda. The article employs district‐level administrative and survey data from California and Indiana to examine whether school districts exhibit features of a rational or natural system—in which their behaviors largely reflect fiscal pressures only—or whether they exhibit features of an open system in which nonfinancial factors also shape responses. In Indiana, district fiscal characteristics explain differences in cost‐cutting and revenue‐raising behaviors; there is little empirical evidence that school districts exhibit features of an open system. In California, both fiscal and environmental attributes, including poverty characteristics, average student achievement levels, and the enrollment of English learner students, explain school district behaviors.     

Ready to Bargain: The Effect of Fiscal Stress on Supermajority Requirements to Raise Taxes

This paper analyzes the interaction effect between fiscal stress and supermajority requirements to raise taxes. I hypothesize that fiscal stress nullifies the effects of supermajority requirements, making states with and without supermajority requirements equally likely to raise taxes during these periods. This conclusion was drawn from a theory on how fiscal stress affects the legislative bargaining environment. The hypothesis was tested using data from 49 states from 1980 to 2010, and the results confirmed expectations. This research contributes to a growing literature that suggests that the effect of institutions cannot be analyzed without considering the context of the political environment.     

转移支付对地方财政收入稳定效应的实证分析——基于中国省市县三级面板数据

从理论上讲,政府间转移支付可以作为稳定政策工具发挥作用。尤其自1994年以来,中央对地方的转移支付已成为地方各级政府重要的财政收入来源,然而,对于转移支付在财政收入稳定性方面发挥的作用,无论是政策制定者和学术研究者均没有注意到。为此,本文利用1993-2005年中国7个省861个县（区）的财政面板数据,把偏离趋势值变动的比率作为因变量,运用固定效应模型和Prais-Winsten模型或者Cochrane-Oreutt模型,实证分析了转移支付对省、市、县（区）财政收入稳定效应。实证结果表明转移支付对省、市、县（区）财政收入有较大的拉动作用,而且当财政收入处于下降阶段时,转移支付的稳定效应更加明显。所以,有必要重新反思政府间转移支付的目标,将其稳定作用纳入政策制订目标和实施效果的考虑范围,并考虑把转移支付作为稳定地方财政的一种政策工具。     

Strategic Human Resource Practices: Introducing Alternatives for Organizational Performance Improvement in the Public Sector

Can public sector organizations increase productivity through competition in spite of inherent limitations, such as budget constraints? This study addresses that question by examining the impact of four factors that contribute to employees’ expectations regarding competitive work environments on organizational performance in terms of overall quality of work and client satisfaction. The four factors measured include rewards for merit such as salary and benefits, opportunities, organizational rules, and the capacity to deal with risks as perceived by employees. Using data on public and nonprofit sector employees, expectations for merit rewards were positively related to employees’ perception of organizational performance when the conditions of performance‐based organizational rules and risk‐taking behaviors were also satisfied. Moreover, employees’ perceptions of organizational performance tended to increase when they felt that organizational rules were oriented toward performance plus organizational members and top leaders exhibited greater risk‐taking behaviors. However, no correlation was evident between employees’ expectations of opportunities and perceived organizational performance.     

The intelligence of fear

Intelligence agencies long have brought unwelcome news to civilian political and military masters – and sometimes suffered severely for it. Even in Western democracies, insecurities and outright fear produce behavioral responses by individuals and defensive institutional reactions that distort normal intelligence activities and affect the overall performance of intelligence agencies. Causes of fear include: political leaders, overseers, agency managers, and the security elements of their organizations. This article highlights the importance of institutional factors, especially organizational cultures and incentives, on the activities and overall performance of intelligence agencies and suggests that motivated biases, caused by personal and organizational self-interest and fears, are more significant causes of intelligence failures than are commonly believed.     

Does fiscal pressure constrain policy responsiveness? Evidence from Germany

Political responsiveness is highly unequal along class lines, which has triggered a lively debate about potential causes of this political inequality. What has remained largely unexplored in this debate are the structural economic conditions under which policymakers operate. In this contribution, we hypothesize that budgetary pressures affect both the level and the equality of political responsiveness. Using a dataset containing public opinion data on around 450 fiscal policy proposals in Germany between 1980 and 2016, we investigate whether policymakers are more responsive on issues with budgetary consequences under conditions of low fiscal pressure than under conditions of high fiscal pressure. We find that responsiveness indeed varies systematically with the degree of fiscal pressure and that policymakers are less responsive on fiscal issues when fiscal pressure is high. This holds for both left-wing and right-wing governments. In contrast, we do not find strong effects of fiscal pressure on political inequality: responsiveness is not more equal in fiscally more permissive times. However, since different types of policy proposals are adopted in times of high fiscal stress, unequal responsiveness has different policy implications in times of high and low fiscal pressure.     

Intergovernmental Structure and Fiscal Management Strategies: A Crossnational Analysis

Does intergovernmental structure have a systematic effect on the impacts of local governments' fiscal policy responses? Using empirical data from more than 800 local governments in five countries, the article concludes that intergovernmental structure is associated with the impact attributed to various fiscal management strategies. Such strategies have generally had greater impact in local governments in federal systems than those in unitary state systems. There are similarities between federal and unitary local governments regarding the fiscal management strategies that have least impact, and both types stress the importance of productivity gains via technology. But the differences in relative importance and level of impact are more striking than the similarities. In particular, fiscal management strategies involving the relations of the local government with other governments, such as obtaining intergovernmental revenue and shifting service provision to other governments, have greater impact in significantly more federal systems than in unitary state systems. These federal local governments also experience greater impacts from increasing user charges and raising local taxes. In contrast, local governments in unitary state systems place greater reliance on the more politically expeditious strategy of across–the–board expenditure reductions and on reductions of capital spending. These findings suggest that local governments in more decentralized systems have greater flexibility to manipulate relations with other governments in order to enhance their own fiscal situation. The data also suggest that the government's level of fiscal stress is not systematically associated with the level of impact from most fiscal management strategies, especially in the unitary state systems.     

The Federal Role in State Fiscal Stress

This article examines the extent to which the federal government'spolicies were responsible for the fiscal stress experiencedby most state governments in the early 1990s. Federal policieshave contributed considerably to recent state fiscal stress,particularly through the Medicaid program—the fastestgrowing part of state budgets—and the recession, whichdepressed revenue and increased welfare and Medicaid spending.Federal aid reductions have not been an important source ofrecent state fiscal stress. The real value of per capita federalaid other than for welfare programs fell considerably in the1980s, but the reductions were much greater for local governmentsthan for states. The largest reductions were in the early 1980s.Federal policies have affected state finances in several otherways—through tax policy, unfunded mandates, and the federalfailure to cope effectively with problems like health and poverty.Federal court rulings have also caused budget problems (as havestate court decisions). In some respects, state fiscal problemsare not a federal responsibility. Rising school enrollments,new corrections policies, and inelastic tax systems have createdfiscal stress for many states. Excessive state spending in the1980s has contributed to recent fiscal problems in some states,but not generally.