Beyond Crime Statistics: The Construction and Application of a Criminogenity Monitor in Amsterdam

Criminologists have devoted a great deal of attention to risk factors – also called criminogenic factors – leading to criminal offending. This paper presents a criminogenity monitor which includes 19 risk factors that underlie crime. These factors do not themselves cause criminal behaviour; rather, they must be seen as signals that crimes may be committed. After discussing how the criminogenity monitor was constructed, we apply the risk factors we examined to the situation in Amsterdam, capital city of the Netherlands. The monitor is intended to function particularly as an instrument to rationalise policy-makers’ work in targeting and preventing symptoms of crime at three geographical levels: the entire city, its boroughs and its neighbourhoods.     

Crime Statistics as Constructs: The Case of Swedish Rape Statistics

Using Swedish rape statistics as a focus, this article aims to empirically describe the way in which different factors affect official crime statistics produced at the national level. It is argued that cross-national comparisons of crime levels are extremely hazardous when based on official crime statistics, since the construction rules vary widely. International comparisons of crime levels should as a rule be confined to findings of international victim surveys. The example of rape statistics in Sweden - about three times higher when compared to other countries in the European Sourcebook - is used to explain what factors can influence statistics. Statistical, legal and substansive factors are to be taken into account. The author shows that changes in statistical routines, the legal definition of rape and changes over time all influence the statistics in a substansive way. This article indicates the great extent to which crime statistics are a construct, whose appearance is very sensitive to the rules applied in the process of construction. In order to employ statistics appropriately, a thorough knowledge of the principles guiding this process is therefore essential.     

Beyond Anomie: Alienation and Crime

This paper argues that anomie theories are aspects of the more comprehensive, but neglected theory of alienation. The dominant dimension of anomie theories (particularly Durkheim’s version) is normlessness, which is only one of five dimensions of alienation theory. A practical implication of this insight is that anomie theory relies heavily on a Durkheimian focus on the role of normlessness in guiding criminal justice policy, while the other dimensions of alienation theory-powerlessness, meaninglessness, isolation and self-estrangement—have been deemphasized or ignored. By including all dimensions of the alienation concept, an integrated theory of crime and more effective crime control strategies can be formulated.     

The Hate Crime Canon and Beyond: A Critical Assessment

Although it remains an empirical question whether the U.S. is experiencing greater levels of hate-motivated-conduct than in the past, it is beyond dispute that the concept of ‘hate crime’ has been institutionalized in social, political, and legal discourse in the U.S. From the introduction and politicization of the term hate crime in the late 1970s to the continued enforcement of hate crime law at the beginning of the twenty-first century, social movements have constructed the problem of bias-motivated violence in particular ways, while politicians at both the federal and state level have made legislation that defines the parameters of hate crime. Accordingly, this article identifies and examines the parameters of a hate crime canon in the U.S., which can first and foremost be described as a body of law that 1) provides anew state policy action, by either creating anew criminal category, altering an existing law, or enhancing penalties for select extant crimes when they are committed for bias reasons; 2) contains an intent standard, which refers to the subjective intention of the perpetrator rather than relying solely on the basis of objective behavior; and 3) specifies a list of protected social statuses, such as race, religion, ethnicity, sexual orientation, gender, disabilities, etc. Arguing that these features constitute the core parameters of the hate crime canon and attendant discourse in the U.S., this article offers a critical assessment of the emergence, institutionalization, and arguable consequences of ‘hate crime’ as a recently developed social fact - in the Durkheimian sense of the word - that is consequential for the politics of victimization in the modern era and the social control of violence against minorities more particularly. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Digital Analysis of Crime Statistics: Does Crime Conform to Benford’s Law?

Benford’s law suggests that the distribution of leading (leftmost) digits in data of an anomalous nature (i.e., without relationship) will conform to a formula of logarithmic intervals known as the Benford distribution. Forensic auditors have successfully used digital analysis vis-à-vis the Benford distribution to detect financial fraud, while government investigators have used a corollary of the distribution (focused on trailing digits) to detect scientific fraud in medical research. This study explored whether crime statistics are Benford distributed. We examined crime statistics at the National, State, and local level in order to test for conformity to the Benford distribution, and found that National- and State-level summary UCR data conform to Benford’s law. When National data were disaggregated by offense type we found varying degrees of conformity, with murder, rape, and robbery indicating less conformity than other offense types. Some tentative implications of these findings are discussed, as are areas for further research.     

The Overrepresentation of Juvenile Crime Proportions in Robbery Clearance Statistics

Many, especially casual observers, interpret juvenile arrest statistics to bea measure of crime committed by juveniles. Others argue that clearancestatistics are a more representative index of the relative responsibility ofjuveniles. Using data from the FBI's National Incident-Based ReportingSystem, this paper explores the likelihoods of arrests for juvenile andadult robbery offenders. The findings show that juvenile robbery suspectsare 23% more likely to be arrested than adults, and 32% more likely aftercontrolling for other incident characteristics. Analyses also found anincreased likelihood of arrest in robbery incidents in which (1) the victimwas a juvenile, a female, or white; (2) the offender was white or female;and (3) the victim was injured. The presence of a weapon was not relatedto the likelihood of arrest. The differential influences of specificincident characteristics on the likelihood of arrest for juveniles andadults highlight the underlying biases of law enforcement statistics inassessing the juvenile component of crime.     

矫正犯罪统计策略研究

犯罪统计是研究犯罪手段、特征和原因,预测未来犯罪,制定刑事政策的重要方法和依据.受到各种因素影响,犯罪统计不实是长期存在的问题.由于犯罪统计数据和资料的不实影响了犯罪统计的功能.通过利用数理统计学原理对犯罪统计不实进行分析和矫正,从统计分析方法角度发现问题和解决问题.     

The European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics: A New Tool in Assessing Crime and Policy Issues in Comparative and Empirical Perspective

Theories which suggest a relationship between crime or criminal justice variables on the one hand, and variables related to criminal justice policies on the other hand, cannot be tested without reference to historic or comparative data. Since international comparisons offer the most powerful test of such theories, policy-related research in Europe has suffered, so far, from a lack of valid comparative data. Whether crime data from different countries are comparable, has always been subject to controversies. In the case of the European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice, a network of specialists was established under the auspices of the Council of Europe in order to assess the validity of the data. Although some problems in cross-country level comparisons could not be settled, the European Sourcebook offers comparative data on 36 Member States of the Council of Europe on a variety of subjects (offences and offenders known to the police; prosecution, convictions, sentences, and corrections; survey data; and indications on manpower and budgets of police forces, prosecutors, and corrections).     

HDR技术在现场摄影中的应用研究

运用HDR技术可以获得被拍景物从最亮区域到最暗区域更多的细节。在现场摄影中运用HDR技术能够使现场照片和部分物证获得比通常的数字成像技术或摄影方法更大的动态范围,从而更好地再现高光或阴影部分的细节,获得更多的影像信息。     

Conviction Statistics as an Indicator of Crime Trends in Europe from 1990 to 2006

Convictions statistics were the first criminal statistics available in Europe during the nineteenth century. Their main weaknesses as crime measures and for comparative purposes were identified by Alphonse de Candolle in the 1830s. Currently, they are seldom used by comparative criminologists, although they provide a less valid but more reliable measure of crime and formal social control than police statistics. This article uses conviction statistics, compiled from the four editions of the European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics, to study the evolution of persons convicted in European countries from 1990 to 2006. Trends in persons convicted for six offences –intentional homicide, assault, rape, robbery, theft, and drug offences– and up to 26 European countries are analysed. These trends are established for the whole of Europe as well as for a cluster of Western European countries and a cluster of Central and Eastern European countries. The analyses show similarities between both regions of Europe at the beginning and at the end of the period under study. After a general increase of the rate of persons convicted in the early 1990s in the whole of Europe, trends followed different directions in Western and in Central and Eastern Europe. However, during the 2000s, it can be observed, throughout Europe, a certain stability of the rates of persons convicted for intentional homicides, accompanied by a general decrease of the rate of persons convicted for property offences, and an increase of the rate of those convicted for drug offences. The latter goes together with an increase of the rate of persons convicted for non lethal violent offences, which only reached some stability at the end of the time series. These trends show that there is no general crime drop in Europe. After a discussion of possible theoretical explanations, a multifactor model, inspired by opportunity-based theories, is proposed to explain the trends observed.     

Subprime Lending Foreclosures,Crime, and Neighborhood Disorganization: Beyond Internal Dynamics

Research and theorizing about communities and crime has largely focused on internal neighborhood dynamics, to the neglect of factors external to the community that may be important processes in shaping community crime rates. We argue that subprime lending practices and the foreclosures that result may result in higher crime rates. We utilize data from the Summit County Lending Study, the Akron Police Department, and the 2000 U.S. Census to test the hypothesis that subprime lending foreclosures increase crime in urban neighborhoods. We find that subprime lending foreclosures have substantial impact on crime counts, net of controls. We conclude that additional research and theorizing about the role of external factors in the disorganization model is required.     

From Betrayal to Violence: Dante's Inferno and the Social Construction of Crime

This essay reflects on contemporary justifications for the grading of crimes, especially the conception that the gravity of crimes is rooted in "desert," understood to depend particularly on the offender's state of mind and to a lesser extent on the harm done or threatened to society.
Drawing on Dante's Inferno, the essay shows how the gravity of crimes is socially constructed. For reasons rooted in the sociopolitical forces, as well as the philosophy and law of his day, Dante found the crimes most deserving of punishment to be those of betrayal of trust. He conceived such crimes to be the most deliberate and to do the most damage to the social fabric. Contemporary law has found that crimes of betrayal are generally less deserving of punishment than crimes of violence; the essay shows how social and historical forces, including even the traditions upon which Dante drew, have shaped this choice. In the course of grading crimes in this way, the law has altered its conceptions of "intent" as well as of harm to society so radically that the notion of "desert" has lost much of its coherence. The importance of trust in modern society, moreover, has been misunderstood in the contemporary grading of crimes.     

Modeling Micro-Level Crime Location Choice: Application of the Discrete Choice Framework to Crime at Places

Discrete choice recently emerged as a new framework for analyzing criminal location decisions, but has thus far only been used to study the choice amongst large areas like census tracts. Because offenders also make target selection decisions at much lower levels of spatial aggregation, the present study analyzes the location choices of offenders at detailed spatial resolutions: the average unit of analysis is an area of only 18 residential units and 40 residents. This article reviews the discrete choice and spatial choice literature, justifies the use of geographic units this small, and argues that because small spatial units depend strongly on their environment, models are needed that take into account spatial interdependence. To illustrate these points, burglary location choice data from the Netherlands are analyzed with discrete choice models, including the spatial competition model.     

Crime and Reactions to Crime in Scandinavia

This short overview of available statistical data on crime and penal systems in Scandinavia indicates that the level of traditional forms of crime in Scandinavia is on a par with or lower than that found in many other European countries. As elsewhere in western Europe, Scandinavia experienced a substantial increase in crime rates during the post‐war period—indicating that these recorded increases may have common structural roots. The 1990s witnessed a stabilization of theft rates, albeit at a high level. Increasing equality between women and men may have contributed to an increase in the reporting of violent and sexual offences against women (and children), making these offences more visible. The system of formal control in the Scandinavian countries is characterized by relatively low police density; a clear‐up rate that has declined; above‐average conviction rates; the imposition of fines in a high proportion of criminal cases; and relatively low prison populations. The implications for crime policies are discussed.     

少年刑事案件的刑法适用

对少年正确认定刑事责任,对少年犯罪人准确定罪与适用刑罚,是少年刑法制度中的重要问题。我国《刑法》第17条第2款的规定及刑罚在少年刑事案件适用过程中经常出现争议。对其中的主要争议的问题,笔者的看法是:已满14周岁不满16周岁的人,在绑架行为中杀害被绑架人应当负故意杀人的刑事责任,对其奸淫幼女行为的刑事责任应按案件的实际情况具体分析,此年龄阶段的少年不应成为转化型抢劫罪的主体。对少年犯罪从宽处罚原则应结合少年个别化的情况进行适用,无期徒刑应限制适用,财产刑的适用则应综合考虑其适用条件,并坚持“教育为主,惩罚为辅”的原则。     

Understanding Victim Support as Crime Prevention Work: The Construction of Young Victims and Villains in the Dominant Crime Victim Discourse in Sweden

Starting from the observation that a new victim category has emerged in the form of the ‘young crime victim’, this article explores the notion of support to young crime victims as crime prevention work, considering it as an important constituent of the dominant crime victim discourse among support professionals. In the context of the support work, the (young) ‘victim’ and the (young) ‘villain’ provide mutually necessary counterparts constructed in relation to each other. Corresponding to this division, two approaches in criminal and crime prevention policy and practice are then analysed using Garland's notions of ‘the criminology of the self’ and ‘the criminology of the other’. The first of these strategies is generally associated with rehabilitative measures (with the resulting normalization of the crime, its victims, and villains), while in the second punitive measures remain the norm (with the crime, its victims, and villains becoming ‘Otherized’). Yet, as shown within the context of rehabilitation organized as support to young crime victims, both of these (at first glance mutually contradictory) discourses are drawn upon and operationalized by the professional support staff constructing images of young victims and villains in their daily work. Help-seeking youths resistant to identifying as victims remain represented as (possible future) villains.     

The Moral Mirror Image of Crime: A Comparison of Recorded Crime and Crime Recorded in Fiction

Moral and ethical aspects of crime are often ignored in most criminological research. In order to probe these two dimensions, crime recorded in fiction was compared with statistically recorded crime. Two hypotheses were tested: the first suggested that crime fiction portrayed the “reality” of actual statistics, while the second suggested that crime fiction was totally unrelated to crime statistics. Comparing data obtained from a North American literary journal and crime statistics obtained from a Canadian province, the results of the study supported the second hypothesis and indicated that crime fiction was totally unrelated to recorded statistics. Crime fiction seemed to represent a moral pacemaker of the perceived fears of the public, while crime statistics seem to represent the criminal pulse of society.

The negative correlation between fiction and recorded statistics is a significant find in that it indicates the reading public's preoccupation and fascination with a very small segment of criminal activity in society—an unrealistic fear of serious injury or death due to violent crime, far out of proportion with reality especially when impending doom is much more probable on the highways in automobile accidents.