Something Must be Done-Military Intervention

In the late twentieth century, the United States' federal government responded to the threat of terrorism by passing a wide range of counterterrorist laws. The vigor that accompanied these initiatives echoed at a state level where, virtually unnoticed, states passed similar legislation. This article examines state measures in three areas: the funding of foreign terrorist organizations, the use or threatened use of weapons of mass destruction, and definitions of terrorist activity. While these statutes, as a legal matter, may not violate any specific federal provisions or constitutional prohibitions, they raise important questions about federal supremacy in foreign affairs and the constitutional protections afforded citizens. More significantly, as a policy concern, these provisions threaten America's ability to speak in one voice, introducing divisions into the domestic realm and diminishing the ability of the federal government to negotiate with foreign states and organizations. They also mask an appropriate role for the states in fighting terrorism. Both the policy implications and legal considerations suggest that such measures may ultimately undermine America's ability to counter the terrorist threat.     

Rose,Orange, and Tulip: The failed post-Soviet revolutions

In 2003–2005, democratic revolutions overthrew the Georgian, Ukrainian, and Kyrgyz post-Soviet authoritarian regimes. However, disillusioned citizens witness today their new leaders creating a Bonapartist regime, entering into open conflict with former revolutionary allies or being forced to accept cohabitation with leaders of the previous regime. This article argues that despite internationally acclaimed civic mobilisation, civil society's weakness seriously affected the three revolutionary processes. These were in fact initiated, led, controlled, and finally subordinated by former members of the authoritarian regimes’ political elite. Finally, the supposedly democratic revolutions proved to be little more than a limited rotation of ruling elites within undemocratic political systems.     

It Comes with the Territory: Why States Negotiate with Ethno-Political Organizations

Given that minority ethno-political organizations are generally weaker than states yet seek to change their policies or remove the ruling regime from power, why would negotiation occur? States prefer to ignore or repress such organizations, which typically have little to offer in return amidst negotiations that can legitimize them while delegitimizing the state. When a challenging organization establishes governing structures and controls movement in part of a state's territory, however, it can easily inflict significant economic and political costs on the state while also possessing a valuable asset to exchange for concessions. An organization with territorial control cannot be ignored, while the state will have a strong incentive to negotiate before the state loses more face, the group gains more legitimacy, neighboring states are more likely to invade, and the international community is more likely to formally recognize any facts on the ground as a new status quo. Our analysis of 118 organizations in the Middle East and North Africa from 1980–2004 reveals that territorial control is the most important determinant of intrastate negotiation. In regards to existing scholarship, this suggests that a certain type of successful violence works—not all violence and not only nonviolence—while certain types of strong organizations—those that control territory—are more likely to reach negotiations with the state than weak ones.     

Militarization in Burma's ethnic states: causes and consequences

Despite a dramatic reduction in fighting in Burma's ethnic states, militarization has increased as the regime seeks to extend its sovereignty and capitalize on economic opportunities. Rather than ensuring civilians' safety, militarization has exposed more civilians to human security threats, with serious consequences for families and communities. Abuses are likely to continue as long as the regime under-finances its army, disregards disciplinary problems, and receives diplomatic cover from its foreign economic partners. While civilians have sought to manage these threats as best they can, their degree of agency is, in most cases, highly constrained, and women have been particularly affected. Nevertheless, the development of community-based organizations which make use of porous borders to expose abuses and provide assistance to distressed communities constitutes an important, if limited, development.     

Soviet Partisan Violence against Soviet Civilians: Targeting Their Own

Applying the ‘victory at all costs’ principle adopted during World War II, partisans—the long arm of the Soviet regime in the occupied territories—pressured civilians to resist the enemy. The thinking behind most of their coercive policies seemed rational within the framework of this concept; however, the passions produced by merciless fighting, communist dogma, Stalinist culture with its habitual witch-hunts, and the belief in collective guilt frequently escalated coercion far beyond rational limits. Partisans increased the polarisation of civilian society between supporters and enemies of the Soviet state, killing thousands of bystanders in the process.     

Xi Jinping: the game changer of Chinese elite politics?

Amidst China’s emergence as a global power, Xi Jinping is pushing through a range of ambitious reform plans that are reconfiguring both Chinese domestic politics and foreign policy. A fierce anti-corruption campaign has led to the dismissal of a large number of powerful figures, while a major effort has begun to bring party, state, and military power within Xi’s control. Many observers have interpreted these moves as radically altering the rules of game of elite politics, if not creating a personalistic political system. Our analysis shows that Xi’s corruption fighting and power centralisation represent part of his state-building project, in order to enhance the party-state’s capacity for the pursuit of governance objectives. We identify three rules regarding the Party’s power succession that would provide a critical test regarding how radically Xi is prepared to alter the Party’s key norms. The outcome of the 19th party congress in late 2017 would make it clearer whether Xi is in an effort to further institutionalise Party politics or turning the regime into his one-man rule.     

The securitisation of life: Eastern Kurdistan under the rule of a Perso-Shi'i state

Abstract

Since the 1979 Revolution, the Iranian state has adopted a sophisticated set of policies to assimilate the Eastern Kurds. The Kurds are often the main target of the Iranian state’s military operations, its assimilatory strategies, and its regime of surveillance. After the ‘conquest’ (fath) of Eastern Kurdistan (Rojhelat) in 1979, the state tried to retain control over the region through systemic militarisation, the establishment of ‘revolutionary institutions’, and new religious and cultural centres, to transform the demographic, religious and cultural profile of Kurdistan. This paper is an attempt to illuminate the state’s religious nationalism and various forms of assimilatory strategies that the Islamic Republic of Iran has employed to transform Kurdish regions.     

When and How Do Militias Disband? Global Patterns of Pro-Government Militia Demobilization in Civil Wars

The research to date on pro-governm`ent militias demonstrates that numerous pro-regime militia groups were actively deployed in civil wars over the last half a century. As hundreds of militia groups emerged amid civil warfare, hundreds more were disbanded, integrated into regular military, or transformed into political forces. This study seeks to improve our understanding of global patterns of militia demobilization. In contrast to the growing body of literature that explores the emergence of militias or examines their relationship with the state, studies on the demise of pro-government militias are notable by their absence. Statistical analysis of 220 pro-government militias involved in seventy-five civil wars from 1981 to 2011, based on a recent database of pro-government militias, demonstrates that the disappearance of militias has little to do with the termination of armed conflict. This study is the first to investigate when and under which conditions militias created to assist governments in fighting civil wars disband.     

Service-Seeking Behavior,Perceptions of Armed Actors,and Preferences Regarding Governance: Evidence from the Palestinian Territories

Armed non-state actors, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, are visibly engaged in providing social welfare in addition to participating in violence. A number of scholars have suggested that there is a relationship between service provision by terrorist organizations and support from service recipients, and have indicated that terrorist organizations use service provision strategically for this purpose. However, few studies have examined the experiences and opinions of service recipients themselves to understand if services do indeed influence populations' political loyalties and opinions regarding violent activities. Using data from more than 1,000 low to moderate income individuals in Palestine, this study seeks to understand if and how receiving services from a specific organization engenders loyalty to the organization, passive acceptance and/or favorable approval of the organizations' violent activities, and the likelihood of participation in the organization's violent activities. This paper explores if and how provision of aid and “governance” services by armed non-state actors is correlated with various aspects of individuals' experiences of conflict, such as their opinions about the use of violence and various strategies for attaining peace, their fellow community members' likelihood to join armed groups and engage in fighting, and their preferences regarding state structure and legal system.     

Organizational Failure in the Hollow State: Lessons from the Milwaukee Voucher Experience

In this conceptual article we use the experience of the longstanding Milwaukee private school voucher program to categorize different failure types within the hollow state. Specifically, we argue that the overall performance of the hollow state is dependent on the performance of organizations operating within the hollow state, that organizational failures are inevitable in hollow state activities, and that such failures can be categorized as marketplace failures, service failures, institutional failures, or customer service failures. We conclude that policy makers must plan for the reality of organizational failures in the hollow state if such arrangements are to be effective.     

Is more institutional coup-proofing better or worse for regime protection? Evidence from the Philippines, 1986–1987

Is more institutional coup-proofing (ICP) better or worse for leaders’ chances of political survival? Are coups less or more likely to occur and succeed as a state’s military structure becomes increasingly divided into rival branches, organizations, and factions? The article evaluates two competing perspectives on the effectiveness of counterbalancing as a regime protection measure. Seeing strength in numbers and the prospects for divide-and-conquer tactics, most scholars take a more-is-better view, suggesting that higher levels of ICP should increase the effectiveness of counterbalancing. Some scholars, however, advance a more-is-worse perspective, suggesting that collective action problems confronting larger numbers of military organizations decrease the effectiveness of counterbalancing. Through a qualitative analysis of eight coup events in the Philippines during 1986–1987, strong evidence is found in support of the causal mechanisms and predicted outcomes for the more-is-better view.     

Talking Cop: Discourses of Change and Policing Identities

This paper presents empirical and theoretical analysis of the enactment of New Public Management (NPM) within the UK police service. It draws on empirical material gathered in a two-year study that explores the ways in which individual policing professionals have responded to, and received, the NPM discourse. Theoretically informed by a discursive approach to organizational analysis, the paper focuses on the new subject positions promoted within NPM that serve to challenge traditional understandings of policing organization and identities. The paper examines the implications of this for policies that promote community orientated policing (COP) and increased inter-agency partnership. The paper argues that the promotion of a more progressive form of policing, based on community orientation and equality principles, may struggle to gain legitimacy within the current performance regime that legitimizes a competitive masculine subjectivity, with its emphasis on crime fighting.     

Continuity and change in Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution

Abstract

The aims and outcomes of the Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela are fiercely contested. A sympathetic view sees the possibility of Left revolutionary transformation as destabilised by aggressive US and domestic opposition actions. Detractors trace an authoritarian path from President Hugo Chávez’s election in 1998 to an inevitable socialist implosion under his successor Nicolás Maduro two decades later. This article emphasises continuities between the Bolivarian Fifth Republic and the Fourth Republic that the Revolution displaced. These account for the limitations of the transformative process. Historical institutionalism explains the reproduction of rentier practices and centralised state management and political organisation, culminating in cascading crisis across regime types.     

Post-liberation Politics in Africa: examining the political legacy of struggle

This article examines the politics of African states in which insurgencies or liberation movements have taken control of the government. It analyses the impact on governance of reforms introduced by these post-liberation regimes, their relations with traditional authorities and civil society and relationships within and between competing guerrilla movements. It interrogates the nature of the state that emerges from this process. The ‘post-liberation’ state label is argued to be both meaningful and useful, as part of a larger project of exploring and explaining the post-colonial African state, highlighting debates about representation, citizenship and nation building. While post-liberation regimes have advantages in implementing state building projects, they are also subject to contestation when the new state institutions and regime incumbents become too exclusivist or predatory.     

To What Extent Can the January 25 Revolution Be Seen as a “Bifurcation” in the Life Stories of Egyptian Migrants in France?

ABSTRACT

The revolutionary process initiated in Egypt in 2011 triggered a surge in Egyptian-led organizations in the public arena in Paris. This article examines the issue of the “biographical impacts of commitment” and applies the “life history approach” to these Egyptian activists. Our basic hypothesis is that the opening up of political perspectives in Egypt may be understood as a bifurcation process in such individual trajectories. It may have entailed a series of disruptions in everyday life to the extent of causing these Egyptian migrants to reconsider their positions within the French context.     

Fighting for the right to play: women’s football and regime-loyal resistance in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

This paper seeks to contribute to the scholarship on women and social change in Saudi Arabia through the case of female football players in Riyadh. Officially, there has been no women’s football in the kingdom, but beneath the surface women have been playing for more than a decade. The women are actively promoting and engaging in change and women’s opportunities to practise sport by building organisations, creating awareness, and negotiating norms and regulations. They are not in opposition to the regime, but supportive of reforms in favour of increased rights for women, while seeing conservative elements in the society as their opponents and the royal family as their allies. They are thus engaging in what O’Brian and Li termed ‘rightful resistance’, by deploying the language of the rulers to express their perspectives and aims, and are engaged in a three-party game with the rulers and conservatives, where divisions within the state and elite allies matter greatly.     

What factors increase the probability of Chinese interventions in intrastate wars?

This study examines the question: What are the factors that increase the probability of Chinese interference in intrastate wars? Chinese behaviour concerning intrastate wars was examined using multivariate logistic regressions. The analyses included the general behaviour of China regarding interference in intrastate wars, Chinese support of violent non-governmental organizations and of state governments. Both were also studied separately for the Cold War and the post-Cold War eras. Among the covariates that were examined, several emerged as possible explanations for China's behaviour: geographic contiguity, adversary regime type, and China's relative military capabilities. Furthermore, differences were found between Chinese support of violent non-governmental organizations and of governments in intrastate wars. Different results were also obtained for Cold War and post-Cold War eras.     

Geography and the outcomes of civil resistance and civil war

This paper reports the results of the first cross-national examination of the impact of the geography of nonviolent contention on regime transitions. Nonviolent tactics ‘work’ in part by signalling the preferences of non-participants through the symbolism of participants, unlike violent tactics. This opens the way for nonviolent campaigns to exploit variations in social-spatial meaning to enhance the informativeness of dissent. Capital cities are one such symbolic place and the main prediction of this study is a positive relationship between large protests and regime transitions in the capital, but not elsewhere. I also predict a strong direct relationship between the proximity to the capital of fighting in civil wars, and regime transitions; no relationship to the proximity of nonviolent contention; and that the intensity of violent conflict impacts regime transitions in a way that is largely independent of location. Results from an analysis of episodes of violent and nonviolent conflict from 1990 to 2014 generally support these contentions.     

The End of the Libyan Dictatorship: The Uncertain Transition

The 42-year dictatorship in Libya finally collapsed in October 2011; it took the Western-backed armed uprising seven months of intensive fighting to defeat Qaddafi's loyalist forces. The fall of the Qaddafi regime is a welcome development in the Middle East and North Africa region. But, unlike Tunisia or Egypt, Libya does not have a standing army or a reliable potential force that can bring the necessary stability for a political transition. The tribal nature of the country and the difficulty of disarming the rebels and other groups pose serious challenges to the new authorities in Tripoli. Unless these issues are handled effectively, Libya will undergo a long period of unpredictability.     

Terrorist Organization Typologies and the Probability of a Boomerang Effect

Since the 1970s, many researchers have proposed typologies to sort the phenomenon of terror into different categories and to divide terror organizations into groups based on various characteristics of their activities. These typologies were designed to facilitate understanding of the phenomenon of terror and of terror organizations’ processes, structures and operative methods. They relied on a variety of diagnostic criteria such as: motives for using terror, targets of the attacks, terrorists’ demands, organizational structure; arenas of operation; and more. This article surveys major typologies of terror, notes the differences between them, presents a model to combine the different classifications of the typologies into a single typology, and proposes a new typology that sorts terror organizations by the variables that limit their activities. The proposed typology makes it possible to analyze terror organizations’ behavior and even to forecast their reactions to a situation in which they are attacked by the enemy state—the boomerang effect.