中国崛起与东亚地区秩序演变

冷战结束后,东亚地区秩序的变化显而易见,但如何界定当今的东亚地区秩序却一直存有争论。本文试图从地区秩序的界定和分类入手,结合冷战后有关东亚地区秩序的争论,分析中国崛起对东亚地区秩序的影响,以辨析和把握东亚地区秩序的发展方向。作者发现,冷战后有关东亚秩序的争论说明,东亚地区尚未形成得到普遍认可的秩序安排,但决定其未来发展走向的两个核心因素已愈发明确,即美国的东亚同盟体系的延续和中国经济实力的崛起。东亚地区秩序演变趋势是,美国依托其东亚同盟体系与经济崛起的中国协调,共同塑造地区规则,维护地区稳定安全。其具体特征是:美国依靠其地区同盟发挥作用;中国与美国及其盟国通过多边或双边协调解决地区安全问题;中国自我克制缓解地区安全问题。决定东亚地区秩序未来的关键是既有的美国东亚同盟体系如何应对中国崛起。要巩固、深化地区协调共治秩序,需要美国及其东亚同盟体系对中国的自我克制政策做出善意的战略回应。     

2014年印尼总统大选出现的新变化及其影响

竞争激烈、备受关注的2014年印尼总统大选最终以政治新星佐科维获胜而落下帷幕。与2004年和2009年两次总统大选相比,2014年印尼总统大选出现了很多新变化,这些新变化使得2014年的总统大选具有划时代意义,载入印尼政治发展史册。不过,印尼首位平民总统佐科维及其政党联盟没有赢得国会多数席位,这为他今后执政带来很大的挑战,他是否有政治魄力克服政治、经济上的挑战,落实他的竞选政纲,还需要拭目以待。     

欧洲国家劳动收入占比下降的成因及对中国的启示

本文借助生产函数的分析框架和一个分解方法,尝试从多个角度对欧洲劳动收入占比下降进行经济学解释。过去30年以来,欧洲出现了向劳动收入占比较低的产业转化的趋势,对整个经济的劳动收入占比产生了负向冲击。20世纪70年代的石油危机之后,僵硬的劳动力市场诱发了资本增强型的技术进步,在资本和劳动替代弹性大于1的情况下,技术进步和资本深化从两个层面对劳动收入占比形成打压。过度的劳动保护并非改善劳动收入占比的良性力量,相反,它成了资本增强型技术进步的诱因。全球化并非欧洲劳动收入占比下降的显著因素,但是在劳动力市场较为僵硬的欧洲大陆国家,它更有机会成为劳动收入占比下降的推手。     

中欧主权观分歧及其影响

历史上,主权是欧洲人发明,中国人被迫接受的概念;今天,主权是欧洲人试图埋葬,中国人极力捍卫的原则。中欧在主权概念上存在明显的认知分歧。主权观分歧对于中欧关系的影响总体上是消极的,使中欧之间容易孳生误解和争端,使中欧更难在很多双边问题上达成一致,并使中欧在第三方问题上的多边国际合作复杂化。但主权观分歧并未妨碍中欧建立战略伙伴关系。鉴于强化还是弱化国家主权对于中国和欧洲来说具有完全不同的意义,双方应积极携手管理在主权问题上的认知分歧,通过相互避免、相互保证和相互适应,打破中欧关系中的主权僵局。     

East Asian Economic Growth and its Implications for Regional Security

Rapid economic growth in East Asia is changing the nature of international relations in the region. In the economic sphere, mercantilist policies of promoting exports and limiting imports contributed to economic tensions between rapidly growing economies in the region and the region's major trading partner, the United States. These tensions over bilateral trade issues began between Japan and United States, moved on next to South Korea and Taiwan, and have now moved from there to China. In the security field, economic growth in China is leading to a major shift in the balance of power in the region. China's steadily increasing GDP is being accompanied by a comparable rise in its military expenditures despite the fact that China faces no obvious external threats at the present time. China's long term desire to be able to defend against any outside power probably means that this increase in defense expenditures will continue for the next decade or two. North Korea continues to be a threat to stability in the region but only because of its capacity to do enormous damage in one last suicidal attack. The one area where China's rising military expenditures could lead to major confrontation on terms very different from those that would occur today is Taiwan.     

尼泊尔反政府武装的兴起及其对中国安全的影响

本文对尼泊尔反政府武装兴起的原因和现状做了描述,分析了美国插手尼泊尔事务的目的和尼泊尔反政府武装的活动对中国安全的影响.     

俄罗斯经济增长与发展

俄罗斯经济会出现奇迹吗?这种可能只有在制度和文化发生变化的基础上,建立起有利的投资、创新和个人发展的环境,只有把大批自由主义的经济和政治改革文件真正实施才能实现。     

日本主导东南亚反海盗合作机制对地区海洋安全事务的影响

冷战结束以后,日本重视东亚海洋安全问题,倡议建立亚洲反海盗多边合作机制,在筹建地区海洋安全合作机制进程中取得主导地位。日本借此介入并主导马六甲—新加坡海峡地区反海盗执法联合行动,在地区国际政治舞台上发挥作用,并对地区关系产生影响。日本的主动行动隐含排斥美国、牵制中国的意图,为日本未来在亚洲海上安全领域发挥作用打下基础。     

中产阶级的崛起与东亚政治转型

本文对当代东亚新兴工业化国家的社会阶层变革及民主政治转型的关系进行了论证分析。从权威政治走向民主政治,不仅要靠高度发达的经济实力来支撑,而且需要中产阶级作为其社会基础条件。中产阶级的崛起、公民社会的形成和非政府组织的发展都是东亚民主政治转型的重要推动力。     

The Rise of the Parliamentary Counsel

SUMMARY

In this article Sir George Engle has traced the early development of the use of official Parliamentary Counsel for the drafting of government legislation. The origins are traced to a series of individual legal experts employed informally by government in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries until the formal appointment of a Parliamentary Counsel to the Treasury in 1769. Following that, other major departments engaged their own Counsel until Peel decided to rationalize the system in 1841 and J.E.D. Bethune was appointed Counsel for fourteen government departments. The work of Henry Thring in developing the principles of parliamentary drafting is discussed and then the appointment of Thring to the ‘Office of Parliamentary Counsel’ in 1869, with one assistant. The institution was made permanent in 1871. The work of Thring's two successors, Henry Jenkyns and Courtnay libert and the working practices they developed arc analysed. Finally the artide summarizes the principle achievements of the Parliamentary Counsel Office over its 126 years of activity.