Merging content analysis and the policy sciences: A system to discern policy-specific trends from news media reports

In this article we set out to bridge a surprising methodological gap between two time-honored research traditions – news media content analysis and the policy sciences analytic framework. Lasswell, a recognized pioneer of both the method and the framework, discussed the mutual benefits of each decades ago. But few researchers, if any, have formally linked the two. To that end, in this article we (1) make the case for using news media content analysis to inform research studies using the policy sciences analytic framework; (2) introduce an original content analysis categorical system for that purpose; (3) demonstrate that system with a study of 90 national news articles about the stratospheric ozone hole; and (4) compare our system to others used to examine news content. We report that our system, used by human coders, is well geared to describing and mapping trends in the social process surrounding the development of the Montreal Protocol ozone treaty during the intelligence gathering and promotion phases encompassed by our data sample. We argue that other content analysis systems fall short – in structure and purpose – of meeting the promise ours holds to the policy scientist.     

The Downstream Benefits of Experimentation

The debate about the cost-effectiveness of randomized fieldexperimentation ignores one of the most important potentialuses of experimental data. This article defines and illustrates"downstream" experimental analysis—that is, analysis ofthe indirect effects of experimental interventions. We arguethat downstream analysis may be as valuable as conventionalanalysis, perhaps even more so in the case of laboratory experimentation.     

Comparing Group and Subgroup Cohesion Scores: A Nonparametric Method with an Application to Brazil

This article builds a nonparametric method for inference fromroll-call cohesion scores. Cohesion scores have been a stapleof legislative studies since the publication of Rice's 1924thesis. Unfortunately, little effort has been dedicated to understandingtheir statistical properties or relating them to existing modelsof legislative behavior. I show how a common use of cohesionscores, testing for distinct voting blocs, is severely biasedtoward Type I error, practically guaranteeing significant findingseven when the null hypothesis is correct. I offer a nonparametricmethod—permutation analysis—that solves the biasproblem and provides for simple and intuitive inference. I demonstratewith an examination of roll-call voting data from the BrazilianNational Congress.     

Iterative Approaches to R x C Ecological Inference Problems: Where They Can Go Wrong and One Quick Fix

This article argues that a key step in King's iterative approachto R x C ecological inference problems—the aggregationof groups into broad conglomerate categories—can introduceproblems of aggregation bias and multimodality into data, inducingmodel violations. As a result, iterative EI estimates can beconsiderably biased, even when the original data conform tothe assumptions of the model. I demonstrate this problem intuitivelyand through simulations, show the conditions under which itis likely to arise, and illustrate it with the example of Colouredvoting during the 1994 elections in South Africa. I then proposean easy fix to the problem, demonstrating the usefulness ofthe fix both through simulations and in the specific South Africancontext.     

Item Similarity in Scale Analysis

A statistic—the similarity coefficient—is developedfor assessing the property that a set of scale items measuresone and only one construct. This statistic is rooted in an explicitmeasurement model and is flexible enough to be used in exploratoryscale analyses, even in small samples. Methods for analyzingsimilarity coefficients are described and illustrated in analysesof Stimson's (1991) policy mood data and Markus' (1990) popularindividualism items. The Appendix discusses the statisticalproperties of similarity coefficients.     

The Fiscal Consequences of Changing Federal and State Revenue Policies: The Case of Small Oregon Cities

This article examines the fiscal consequences for twelve, smallOregon cities of recent changes in federal and state intergovernmentalrevenue policies. Many small local governments have experienceddouble revenue reverses in recent years—reductions inown-source revenues because of economic decline as well as decreasesin intergovernmental revenues, especially federal aid. The twelvesmall cities are compared with all 241 cities in Oregon andthe 136 Oregon cities in the 1,000 to 49,999 population range.Using aggregate and interview data, a major finding is thatalthough stabilization and/or decline in federal-state revenuesharing and entitlement program funds have accentuated difficultlocal revenue situations, economic decline has been the moreimportant contributor to the fiscal stress of the twelve smallmunicipalities. Most of the twelve cities had limited fiscalcapacity—as indicated by low assessed property valuations—makingit difficult to produce sufficient revenue to meet basic publicservice needs. These cities were also unable to get citizenapproval of increases in property taxes.     

Rational and Pluralistic Approaches to HAVA Implementation: The Cases of Georgia and California

The Help America Vote Act (HAVA) has created a new dynamic forthe oversight and implementation of federal elections, requiringstates to assume greater control of election processes vis-à-vistheir local governments than was previously the case in moststates. We consider how HAVA has changed the relationship betweenstates and localities, especially through the HAVA planningprocess. We examine two approaches that states have used inHAVA planning—a rational approach and a pluralistic approach—andhow each can shape the power relationship between states andlocalities. We then present case studies from Georgia and Californiato illustrate how these two approaches have functioned in practice.     

The Density of State Interest-Communities: Do Regional Variables Matter?

To better understand state interest-group politics, this studycompares two approaches to understanding the density of theirinterest communities. The first approach—Gray and Lowery'senergy, stability, area model of density—emphasizes asmall set of political and economic variables operative withineach state in accounting for density. The second, of which thereare several examples, emphasizes a regional level of analysis.The two approaches are evaluated as both independent and complementaryaccounts of state interest-community density using 1990 statelobby-registration data. Although some evidence of modest underspecificationin the Gray and Lowery model is found, regional or spatiallybased variables only have a small impact on the density of stateinterest-communities.     

Introduction: Gender, Citizenship and Participation: Opportunities and Obstacles in the Twenty-first Century Politics

THIS special half issue of Parliamentary Affairs brings togetherseveral pertinent themes that have been the source of debate—academicand broader—in recent years. We hear much about the ‘crisisof participation’ in which ‘traditional’ formsof political activity attract the participation of ever-decreasingnumbers, although the extent to which this is a ‘natural’development of social change or the result of political bankruptcyremains to be decided. While, for     

Publication Bias Reconsidered

In political science and many other disciplines, statisticallysignificant results—rejections of the null hypothesis—areachieved more frequently in published than in unpublished studies.Such "publication bias" is generally seen as the consequenceof a widespread prejudice against statistically nonsignificantresults. I argue that evidence of such a prejudice is in surprisinglyshort supply and that publication bias can occur even in theabsence of such a prejudice and even if the review process isfunctioning perfectly. More importantly, publication bias maystem from dutiful application of standards of scientific inquiryrather than from irrational prejudice.     

Political Culture and the Pattern of Congressional Politics Under the Articles of Confederation

This article brings a broad tradition of sociocultural analysis,commonly identified with Louis Hartz, Bernard Bailyn, SeymourMartin Lipset, and Daniel J. Elazar, to bear in understandingthe pattern and character of congressional politics in the firstAmerican national government. This approach, centering on thestudy of political culture and the role of ideas in shapingthe performance of institutions, attempts to place values, orconflicts between alternative value systems, at the heart ofdiscussions of political development and change in RevolutionaryAmerica. I deploy both traditional historical argument and quantitativeevidence to demonstrate that the three political subculturesdescribed by Elazar—moralistic in New England, individualisticin the Middle Atlantic states, and traditionalistic in the South—providethe basis for an explanation of factional divisions which appearedin the Congress of the Articles of Confederation.     

Modeling Duration Dependence

As applications of duration analysis have burgeoned in politicalscience, scholars have become increasingly aware of the potentialsubstantive importance of duration dependence: the extent towhich the conditional hazards of the events of interest arerising or falling over time. Here I discuss the issue of durationdependence, focusing on the distinction between "spurious" dependencedue to unobserved heterogeneity and "true" duration dependencedue to state dependence in the process of interest. I presenta simple extension of a commonly used parametric duration model—theWeibull model—which allows researchers to assess the influenceof causal variables on the nature and extent of duration dependencein their data. I then illustrate the application of this "generalizedWeibull" model using data on the duration of international alliances.     

Presidential Elections and the Stock Market: Comparing Markov-Switching and Fractionally Integrated GARCH Models of Volatility

Bumba Mukherjee Department of Political Science, Florida State University, 554 Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32306 e-mail: smukherj{at}mailer.fsu.edu Existing research on electoral politics and financial marketspredicts that when investors expect left parties—Democrats(US), Labor (UK)—to win elections, market volatility increases.In addition, current econometric research on stock market volatilitysuggests that Markov-switching models provide more accuratevolatility forecasts and fit stock price volatility data betterthan linear or nonlinear GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditionalheteroskedasticity) models. Contrary to the existing literature,we argue here that when traders anticipate that the Democraticcandidate will win the presidential election, stock market volatilitydecreases. Using two data sets from the 2000 U.S. presidentialelection, we test our claim by estimating several GARCH, exponentialGARCH (EGARCH), fractionally integrated exponential GARCH (FIEGARCH),and Markov-switching models. We also conduct extensive forecastingtests—including RMSE and MAE statistics as well as realizedvolatility regressions—to evaluate these competing statisticalmodels. Results from forecasting tests show, in contrast toprevailing claims, that GARCH and EGARCH models provide substantiallymore accurate forecasts than the Markov-switching models. Estimatesfrom all the statistical models support our key prediction thatstock market volatility decreases when traders anticipate aDemocratic victory.     

Confronting Political--Economic Theories of Voting with Evidence

This paper illustrates one strategy for testing a theory ofeconomic influences on voting. We use a competitive equilibriummodel of the economy to determine the impact of an individual'seconomic position on his or her economic interests and, ultimately,political interests. We then test whether this impact is observedin voting behavior, addressing the resulting specification andestimation problems in the context of U.S. presidential electiondata. Our empirical results suggest that, despite these formidableproblems, we can usefully connect political—economic modelsand discrete-choice (probit) models of voting.     

Politics and Constitutional Reform in Canada: A Study in Political Opposition

Political opposition in a federal system is particularly richand complex, involving not only political parties and pressuregroups, but constitutionally sovereign governments as well.This article examines political opposition in a federation througha case study of the mobilization of opposition to the CanadianConstitution Act. Introduced by the federal government in 1980,the Act proposed a series of important changes in the powersof Canada's ten provinces. The resistance offered by a numberof provinces, the two opposition parties holding seats in Parliament,and a handful of interest groups were sufficient to secure significantchanges in the Act. The analysis presented here demonstratesthe key role of provincial governments—and especiallyof provincial premiers—as oppositional actors, while indicatingthe importance of the courts and intergovernmental conferencesas sites where political opposition expresses itself in a federation.     

Quantitative Leverage Through Qualitative Knowledge: Augmenting the Statistical Analysis of Complex Causes

Social scientific theories frequently posit that multiple causalmechanisms may produce the same outcome. Unfortunately, it isnot always possible to observe which mechanism was responsible.For example, IMF scholars conjecture that nations enter IMFagreements both out of economic need and for discretionary domesticpolitical reasons. Typically, though, all we observe is thefact of agreement, not its cause. Partial observability probitmodels (Poirier 1980, Journal of Econometrics 12:209–217; Braumoeller2003, Political Analysis 11:209–233) provide one methodfor the statistical analysis of such phenomena. Unfortunately,they are often plagued by identification and labeling difficulties.Sometimes, however, qualitative studies of particular casesenlighten us about causes when quantitative studies cannot.We propose exploiting this information to lend additional structureto the partial observability approach. Monte Carlo simulationreveals that by anchoring "discernible" causes for a handfulof cases about which we possess qualitative information, weobtain greater efficiency. More important, our method provesreliable at recovering unbiased parameter estimates when thepartial observability model fails. The paper concludes withan analysis of the determinants of IMF agreements.

A member shall be entitled to purchase the currencies of othermembers from the Fund ...[provided] the member represents thatit has a need to make the purchase because of its balance ofpayments or its reserve position or developments in its reserves. —InternationalMonetary Fund Articles of Agreement [IMF] negotiations sometimesenable government leaders to do what they privately wish todo, but are powerless to do domestically. —Robert Putnam(1988, p. 457)

     

Non-Majoritarian Democracy: A Comparison of Federal and Consociational Theories

In an earlier attempt to compare federalism and consociationalism,I found that, both conceptually and empirically, they do notcoincide but that they do overlap to a significant extent. Inthis second comparison, my point of departure is that both conceptsentail a rejection of majoritarian democracy. Eight characteristicsof non-majoritarian democracy—or consensus democracy—canbe identified: (1) executive power sharing, (2) balanced executive-legislativerelations, (3) strong bicameralism, (4) multiparty system, (5)multi-dimensional party system, (6) proportional representation,(7) federalism and decentralization, and (8) a written constitutionand minority veto. Consociational theorists tend to emphasizethe non-majoritarian attributes of power sharing, proportionalrepresentation, and multi-partyism, whereas federal theoristsstress the non-majoritarian characteristics of strong bicameralismand rigid constitutions, in addition to federalism itself. Asimilar pattern is revealed by a factor analysis of these variablesin twenty-two democratic regimes. Although consociationalismand federalism are non-majoritarian in nature, they representclearly different dimensions of non-majoritarianism.     

The Federal Role in State Fiscal Stress

This article examines the extent to which the federal government'spolicies were responsible for the fiscal stress experiencedby most state governments in the early 1990s. Federal policieshave contributed considerably to recent state fiscal stress,particularly through the Medicaid program—the fastestgrowing part of state budgets—and the recession, whichdepressed revenue and increased welfare and Medicaid spending.Federal aid reductions have not been an important source ofrecent state fiscal stress. The real value of per capita federalaid other than for welfare programs fell considerably in the1980s, but the reductions were much greater for local governmentsthan for states. The largest reductions were in the early 1980s.Federal policies have affected state finances in several otherways—through tax policy, unfunded mandates, and the federalfailure to cope effectively with problems like health and poverty.Federal court rulings have also caused budget problems (as havestate court decisions). In some respects, state fiscal problemsare not a federal responsibility. Rising school enrollments,new corrections policies, and inelastic tax systems have createdfiscal stress for many states. Excessive state spending in the1980s has contributed to recent fiscal problems in some states,but not generally.     

The Farm Crisis and the Future of Rural Local Governments

America's farmers are facing difficult financial times, andtheir problems are spilling over to rural local governments.Declining farm incomes and farm property values erode the localtax base. At the same time, demand for publicly provided servicesmay increase, creating a squeeze between falling revenues andhigher costs. This article documents the impact the farm crisishas had on local government tax bases in eight multi-countyregions in the Midwest. The impacts found, while severe, wouldgenerally be manageable in the absence of other shocks. However,when changes in the intergovernmental aid system–suchas the elimination of General Revenue Sharing and other cutsin federal aid—are factored in, local governments in agriculturallydependent areas can encounter financial stress. Higher taxesand lower service levels may permanently change the qualityof life in rural America.