Debt and the Local Economy: Problems in Benchmarking Local Government Debt Affordability

Debt creation imposes an obligation to repay borrowed funds from a wealth base that for most local governments is capitalized in property values. Therefore, the ability to afford debt is tied to the local economy, a factor often overlooked by localities in the analyses of their own position. However, debt levels are also relative, as the many debt affordability studies among governments and by bond rating agencies suggest. We argue here that economic concentration and interjurisdictional coordination fundamentally provide a broader analytical approach to the question a locality asks: can we afford more debt?     

The Impact of State Debt Management on Debt Activity

This article addresses the impact that state debt management has on the debt activity of a state debt program. A quantitative measure of state debt management is developed and used in analysis of state debt activity. The study finds that states with decentralized debt management issue more long-term debt as compared to states with other forms of debt management. The study also investigates the impact other institutional variables have on state debt activity and highlights the interaction effects of these variables with the institutional debt management variable. The study finds that the effects of previously tested variables such as the number of public authorities and constitutional debt limitations on debt activity are altered if the form of debt management is considered.     

Introduction to session 2: Magnitude of the crisis: The fiscal and human costs

Abstract

Many are looking to California and its state housing law for advice on how to deal with the affordability challenges affecting many metropolitan areas throughout the nation. It is thus critically important to go beyond the laws themselves and examine how state and municipal governance structure affects affordability, supply, and production. Some states give broad freedom to localities to develop policies that can potentially meet a range of goals and objectives. Others directly undermine those efforts by limiting local ability to pursue policy reforms while simultaneously failing to engage on the state level.

The redefinition of federalism on the national level, coupled with continued resistance to growth from some localities, establishes the state as at least an equal partner in dealing with housing supply and affordability issues. Understanding these distinctions is important, and the housing community needs to take them into account as it moves on the state front.     

Do Debt Levels Influence State Borrowing Costs?

This article reports on research into the possible interest cost penalties when state governments impose increasingly high debt levels on their citizens. The potential effect of debt levels on borrowing costs is a material one, given the large amounts of state debt outstanding. At the same time that government borrowing is heavy, the demand for government obligations also appears to be strong. The authors examine state debt levels and borrowing costs over a six‐year period (2001–2006) and find little evidence of such an effect, despite rapidly growing debt burdens. Those concerned about state debt levels, the authors say, must look to sources other than investors for pressure to reduce debt issuance.     

Debt Diligence: How States Manage the Borrowing Function

State-level indebtedness is large and persistent and bond issuance has become increasingly complex. In light of these conditions, professional standards have been proposed by some organizations (including the Government Finance Officers Association) seeking to persuade members to codify sets of desirable practices into policies for debt issuance. We surveyed state government debt managers to assess the comprehensiveness and prevalence of debt policies. We find little evidence of the adoption of comprehensive formal debt policies. Instead, states rely more heavily upon the guidance provided by their own sets of standard practices or "rules of thumb."     

Grant Levels and Debt Issuance: Is There a Relationship? Is There Symmetry?

Although previous work on fiscal federalism and grants has focused on the effects of grants on expenditures, no published research examines the impact of decreasing grants on state financing. This research addresses how decreasing levels of federal grant money to states affect states' long-term debt issuance, and whether the relationship is symmetric for increasing and decreasing grants. The model is tested with time series, cross-sectional data from 1984 to 1999. The results show that grants affect debt issuance, the effect is asymmetric, and direction of the effect differs for different types of debt issuance.     

Debt,Corruption, and State Identity: Lessons from Eighteenth-Century Political Thought

The subject of national debt raises serious questions concerning state identity. Should a state that has radically altered its constitution be responsible for decisions taken by the previous state? Much hangs on how we characterize the state as a continuous agent. This article explores debates over national debt, state integrity, and corruption in the eighteenth century, the era in which the modern financial-bureaucratic state was in its infancy. Many eighteenth-century writers treated national debt as corrupting; some advocated voluntary default as a manner of laying low the insidious “moneyed interests” usurping political power. But if public debt was attacked by some as the soul of corruption, others saw it as something that had been made possible by—and was a guarantor of—integrity. These controversies reveal a clash of visions of what constitutes state integrity. This same clash is alive in contemporary debates about national debts.     

State Debt Limits: How Many Are Enough?

There is a growing concern among state policy makers that unrestrained debt may exceed politically acceptable or financially sustainable levels of debt. Many states have established limits to restrict debt, but many of these limits are circumvented through issuing more complex and specialized bonds. In this article, we focus on the use of debt limits as an instrument to manage a state's debt in context of two key questions: (1) under what circumstances should a state consider multiple debt limits and (2) if multiple limits are established, what factors should be considered in setting such multiple limits. In addressing these issues, we consider the theoretical and conceptual issues associated with setting debt limits, we highlight current state debt limit policies, and discuss factors that appear to be influencing decisions to establish and set multiple limits.     

Debt administration in Small Island‐States

Public debt management is an infrequent focus of public administration studies. Yet without appropriate debt management, administrators have few financial resources for public service provision. Island‐state administrators face an enhanced service provision challenge. The peculiarity of island‐state economies, the unpredictability of exogenous events and the state's endogenous choices increase debt administration's importance. Via its focus on debt management office location and the administrative constraints posed by brain drain, transparency and regionalization, this paper goes beyond typical debt management studies to engage debt administration spaces. The result is a framework for studies of debt administration in Small Island‐States.     

The Interest Cost Implications of the Financial Advisor Turned Underwriter

The Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB) does not prohibit municipal financial advisors from participating in the bidding process to serve as underwriter on issues for which they provided advisory services. Some municipalities prohibit the practice, viewing such an arrangement as a conflict of interest. Using data from nearly one thousand competitively sold municipal debt issues in the state of Texas from 1991 to 1995, I test whether or not competition alone in the bidding process is sufficient to protect the interests of the issuer. For general obligation debt and state-backed school district debt these data indicate that there are no interest cost implications for the practice. For municipal and special district revenue debt I find weak evidence of some additional interest (about six basis points) when the advisor serves as underwriter, but the effect is not consistent enough throughout the data to reach statistical significance at the p<0.001 level (see note 10). What I do find is that unrated issues are much more likely to be bid on and won by the advisor, indicating that cities should be concerned about the guidance of their advisor when that advice is to take an unrated issue to market.     

THE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGY OF THE VICTORIAN COALITION GOVERNMENT

Abstract: This article reviews the budget sector financial management strategy of the Victorian Coalition government in the crucial period from its election in October 1992 up to the 1993–94 budget. The twin goals set by the Coalition were the elimination of the current account deficit, and the reduction of debt levels. Given infrastructure pressures, the debt reduction goal will be a difficult one to achieve. More precisely, it will be a difficult one to achieve without relying upon instruments such as assets sales, which the Coalition has viewed as artificial debt reduction techniques. The capital expenditure plans embodied in the 1993–94 state budget were not consistent with the debt reduction plans specified only months earlier by the Coalition. Victoria's debt levels are quite moderate even by OECD standards. What makes debt levels a real issue for the state is the narrowness of the tax bases of the Australian states, and the fact that Victoria is taxing at something like its maximum levels (at least, without coordinated multi-state tax increases). It is argued that, if the states could be confident that their revenue positions would hold firm (concretely, that revenue and grants as a proportion of GSP would remain constant), the appropriate debt policy goal for Victoria would be stabilisation — rather than reduction — of its debt/GSP ratio. However, the foreshadowed trend reduction of real commonwealth grants, as part of the so-called national savings campaign, makes it appropriate for Victoria — given the circumstances in which it finds itself — to target the reduction of debt/GSP levels.     

State Debt Management Policy: A National Survey

The amount of outstanding, long-term, tax-exempt state debt has grown precipitously over the last decade, from $87 billion in 1977 to $264 billion in 1987. But there have been few attempts to carry out broad studies of basic state debt management policies, using comparative state data. As a result, policy-makers lack guidance as they attempt to adjust policies and procedures to meet the rapidly evolving requirements associated with public borrowing. This paper reports on a national survey of state debt manage ment policies - policies devoted to the planning, preparation, sale, and repayment of debt for which states consider themselves responsible.     

Now You See It, Now You Don't: The Mysterious Case of the Vanishing Split Bond Rating in States

Bond ratings on state-issued debt provide a signal to credit markets that help them charge an appropriate interest rate, based on the risk of payment default. Though actual default may occur only in extreme circumstances, observed differences in ratings and interest costs across states and time demonstrate that a sound economy, strong financials, and stable policies matter. When data on the factors that presumably affect ratings is public and easily accessible, making sense of differences of opinion between bond rating agencies is difficult. We suggest that such differences—observed as so-called split bond ratings—are often ephemeral. Utilizing a simulation method to uncover the latent credit risk presented by each state, we show that split ratings on state bonds are often due to the fact that presumed category overlap between rating agencies is absent when evaluated on a common latent scale. Most observed state bond rating splits from 1997 through 2006 can be explained by this category mismatch. Our approach has broad implications for pricing state debt, as well as pricing rated debt in other capital market sectors.     

Decentralization and Fiscal Discipline in Sub-national Governments: Evidence from the Swiss Federal System

This article analyses the relationship between decentralizationand the extent of fiscal discipline in the Swiss cantons between1984 and 2000. From a theoretical point of view, decentralizationand federalism can be associated with both an expansive anda dampening effect on government debt. On the one hand, decentralizedstructures have been argued to lead to a reduction of debt dueto inherent competition between the member states and the multitudeof veto positions which restrict public intervention. On theother hand, decentralization has been claimed to contributeto an increase of public debt as it involves expensive functionaland organizational duplications as well as cost-intensive, oftendebt-financed, compromise solutions between a large number ofactors that operate in an uncoordinated and contradictory way.Our empirical results show that in periods of prosperous economicdevelopment, the architecture of state structure has no impacton debt. However, the degree of decentralization influencesdebt in economically poor times: In phases of economic recession,administratively decentralized cantons implement a more economicalbudgetary policy than centralized Swiss member states.     

Neighborhood Opportunity and Location Affordability for Low-Income Renter Families

Abstract

We use the Location Affordability Index (LAI) and the newly developed Child Opportunity Index (COI) to assess, for the first time, the tradeoff between neighborhood opportunity and housing/transportation affordability facing low-income renter families in the 100 largest metropolitan areas. In addition to describing the opportunity/affordability relationship, we explore the level of balance between neighborhoods’ relative cost burden and their corresponding opportunity levels to determine whether children of different racial/ethnic groups are more (or less) likely to experience cost-opportunity imbalance. Our multilevel analyses show that housing affordability is largely accounted for by the neighborhood opportunity structure within each metropolitan area. The metropolitan characteristics examined account for only a small proportion of the between-metro variance in the opportunity/affordability gradient for housing, presumably because the neighborhood opportunity structure already reflects metro area factors such as fragmentation and segregation. On the other hand, transportation affordability shows a weaker association with neighborhood opportunity. The COI/LAI association is much weaker for transportation than for housing, and a large part of the variation in the transportation gradient occurs at the metropolitan area level, not the neighborhood level. Sprawl is particularly associated with transportation affordability, with lower sprawl areas having lower transportation-cost burden. We discuss the implications of the empirical findings for defining affordability in housing assistance programs. We recommend that housing policy for low-income renter families adopt an expanded notion of affordability (housing, transportation, and opportunity) and explicitly consider equity (e.g. cost-opportunity imbalance) in the implementation of this expanded affordability definition.     

How Location Efficient Is LIHTC? Measuring and Explaining State-Level Achievement

A growing recognition that the cost of transportation should be included in calculations of housing affordability has led to efforts to promote location efficiency (LE) in affordable housing policy. Because the program is responsible for most new affordable housing in the United States, the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program has the potential to be a link between housing affordability and LE. This research analyzes the extent to which LIHTC units built between 2007 and 2011 were in location-efficient places. Ordinary least squares regression analysis was used to test the role of market, policy, developer, and urban form factors in determining state-level LIHTC LE. We find that for the nation as a whole, from a quarter to half of LIHTC units added during this period were in location-efficient places, depending on the LE criteria applied. State-by-state comparisons showed wide variation in both our absolute measures of LIHTC LE and our relative measures of LIHTC LE compared with overall housing in each state. State policy and nonprofit developers were associated with higher LIHTC LE and had a positive effect on a state’s ability to outperform its underlying urban form.     

THE IMPLICATIONS OF HIGH LEVELS OF PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT FOR ECONOMIC POLICY-MAKING: THE CASE OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Abstract: The relatively small and open South Australian economy has been facing the difficulties associated with the structural adjustment of its industry for over 15 years. In addition, the South Australian public sector has been contending with financial difficulties largely as a result of a reduction in grants from the commonwealth before the failure of the State Bank of South Australia. This paper reviews the growth and current level of government indebtedness in South Australia and discusses which group(s) is likely to bear the main burden of such debt. The main consequences of high levels of state public sector debt, including budgetary inflexibility, are also examined. The paper suggests that it will be necessary for relative wages and prices to adjust more freely if the negative impacts of an inevitable state government budgetary consolidation are to be minimised. If wages and prices are not free to adjust then unemployment will continue to take the brunt of the adjustment process. In addition, out-migration of businesses and people from South Australia will accelerate, leading to a further erosion of the taxation base. The State Bank indemnity arrangements and consequent levels of public sector debt incurred will require the state government to reduce the level and quality of services provided by the state public sector, sell state public sector assets and further improve efficiency and effectiveness. However, there are a number of important arguments why taxation should be an important means by which the South Australian government moves to retire public sector debt as soon as practicable. Not the least important of these arguments is the need to ensure accountability by elected representatives of government for their expenditure decisions.     

Debt intolerance and the 90 per cent debt threshold: two impossibility theorems

Abstract

Two propositions underpin the retreat from post-crisis fiscal expansion instituted by several G7 governments in the summer of 2010. One is that the threat of debt intolerance is general: the reasoning is that the sharp rise in government debt levels caused by post-crisis fiscal expansion will force investors to abandon government bonds in favour of some other asset class. The other proposition is that there is a one-size debt threshold: the reasoning is that no government, those of the G7 countries included, can escape the serious consequences of debt intolerance and the threat of exit should its debt to GDP ratio reach 90 per cent. This paper argues that neither of these propositions can have credibility at a time of continuing global economic slowdown and consequent contraction in the global supplies of investable assets. At such a time investors cannot possibly hold up the threat of intolerance to core economy governments because they have no choice but to store substantial portions of their wealth in the latter's bonds, a fact which in turn means that the debt thresholds for core economy governments cannot possibly be the same as the average for other governments.     

Evaluating the Concept of Location Affordability: Recent Data on the Relationship Between Transportation,Housing, and Urban Form

The concept of location affordability holds that housing affordability should be augmented to include transportation cost as a related and substantial household cost burden. The recent United States foreclosure crisis of 2006–2008 offers an opportunity to evaluate location affordability as a concept for policy and practice by investigating the relationship between transportation cost burdens and negative housing outcomes. This article contributes to the growing literature on location affordability and the recent crisis with an analysis of default and foreclosure data for 70 metropolitan areas. The analysis includes transportation and housing cost burdens and demographic data, as well as multidimensional measures of urban form. High rates of automobility are associated with increased foreclosure. The urban form variables yield mixed results, suggesting the relationship between urban sprawl and affordability is complex. However, across a range of specifications, high levels of development intensity are associated with increased foreclosure rates. The results have implications for both the housing and transportation sectors and lend support for the notion of location affordability.     

The Impact of State Policies to Limit Debt Financing

State policies intended to limit debt financing, either by requiringa balanced budget or by establishing constitutional limitationson debt, have been adopted in many states. A nalysis revealsthat stricter constitutional debt limitations are associatedwith lower levels of full faith and credit debt but show littlerelationship to overall state debt.