Empirical Modeling of Policy Diffusion in Federal States: The Dyadic Approach

Policy diffusion is a common phenomenon in federal states: indeed, one of the normative justifications of decentralized policy making is that it permits the development and spread of best practices. Following Berry and Berry (1990), event‐history analysis has been the method of choice for the quantitative investigation of policy diffusion, but Volden (2006) has recently introduced a dyadic variant of this method in which units of analysis are not states but, instead, pairs of states. This article discusses the dyadic approach with a particular focus on the diffusion of policies in Switzerland. The goal is not to introduce a new method, but rather to provide a practical overview for researchers interested in using it. The article shows how the method has migrated from the international relations literature to the policy‐diffusion literature, describes the typical structure of a dyadic dataset in a diffusion context, and discusses several modeling issues. The usefulness of the dyadic approach is illustrated empirically with the example of health‐insurance subsidy policies in Swiss cantons.     

涉外公共政策:学科建设与教学实践

本文尝试论证建设"涉外公共政策"这一交叉学科的必要性,并认为国际关系与公共政策两门学科可以互为新的发展支撑.     

Explaining Policy Stability and Change in Swiss Health Care Reforms

The article investigates recent health reforms and reform attempts in Switzerland. A substantial reform, the revision of the health insurance law in 1994, is followed by a long period of refused reform proposals and incremental change. In order to explain policy change and policy stability in health policies, we apply veto‐player theory to partisan and parliamentary debates on reform proposals of the health insurance from the end of the 1980s until today. Shifts in ideological positions of parties, especially with regard to the objective of solidarity, allowed for a new win‐set in the 1990s that was at the base of the law revision. Since then, the win‐set is empty as parties did not change their preferences. New and substantial reforms will only be possible, it is concluded, if the pivot player, the Christian‐democratic party, changes its ideological positions to a significant extent.     

The Impact of Fiscal Decentralisation on Education and Other Types of Spending

Scholars have argued about the impact of fiscal decentralisation on public spending for a long time without coming to any firm theoretical and empirical conclusions. In contrast to earlier studies, this paper looks at the impact of fiscal decentralisation across different types of spending. The conventional wisdom of a “race to the bottom” in taxes and spending as a consequence of fiscal decentralization is juxtaposed to the recent literature on expenditure competition, which posits that expansive local competition results in higher spending in fiscally decentralized countries. We argue that the effects of fiscal decentralization should be seen most clearly for those types of policies which are provisioned mainly on the local/regional level. Empirically, we find a robust and positive association between fiscal decentralization and aggregate levels of education spending. However, when looking at public policies provided at the national level (e.g. pension policies), fiscal decentralisation is associated with lower levels of aggregate spending. The argument is tested empirically by means of cross‐sectional regressions as well as a pooled time series analysis of education, pension, social and total public spending in OECD countries from 1980 to 2001.     

Fiscal Federalism and International Capital: The Effects of Fiscal Federalism on Foreign Direct Investment and Sovereign Dept Ratings

Although the study of federalism has become one of the most intensely studied areas in economics and political science, no consensus has emerged on the impact of fiscal federalism on macroeconomic performance. I focus on one specific element of the debate‐ the role of fiscally federal institutions in allowing a country access to international capital markets. In an empirical analysis of 60 countries from 1975‐1995 I find fiscal federalism has no clear impact on inflows of foreign direct investment. In an examination of the impact of federalism on sovereign debt ratings for 40 countries from 1980‐1998, I find that fiscal federalism is associated with lower levels of sovereign debt risk.     

Europartis et politiques publiques: les sociaux‐démocrates et la quête d'une politique fiscale

La pertinence des Europartis dans la vie politique européenne constitue une préoccupation croissante auprès des praticiens et des chercheurs. Le rôle des Europartis dans le processus politique européen est un aspect important de cette préoccupation. Sur base des acquis de la littérature, le présent article proposera de nouvelles perspectives d‘analyse qui seront appliquées au cas du Parti des socialistes européens (PSE) et à sa quête d‘une politique fiscale. Nous défendrons la thèse que le PSE a contribué au succès de l‘agenda de l‘UE contre la compétition fiscale ‘dommageable’, et ce, malgré l‘échec de la mise en oeuvre de son programme fiscal. En outre, notre analyse théorique et empirique remettra en question les approches institutionnelle et cognitive de l‘intégration européenne.     

The New Europe: a Federal State or a Confederation of States?

In its search for new forms of federal arrangements appropriate to its contemporary situation, Europe is again at the cutting edge in developing new political arrangements for the postmodern epoch. With the collapse of Westphalian statism, those new arrangements are perforce federal, but not in the manner of modern federations. Instead they are postmodern confederations and various kinds of confederal arrangements. The European Union is rapidly becoming the model post-modern confederation, while other arrangements linking the states of contemporary Europe represent other forms of confederal arrangements. All fit into the spirit and form of globalization and are helping to provide economic globalization with a political and constitutional anchor. Several questions remain, however. How can the European Union become or remain federal rather than hierarchical in orientation, given the pulls of traditional European statism? How will the new confederalism accommodate the various arenas in existing European national state federations?     

缅甸外交政策的新调整:从对华友好到大国平衡外交

1988年政变上台的缅甸新军人政权,遭到西方国家的制裁,不得不努力发展与中国的关系,以稳定国内局势。在统治得到巩固后,缅甸新军人政权开始奉行大国平衡的外交政策,即在继续发展对华关系的同时,努力改善与东盟、印度和日本的关系。本文还分析了缅甸奉行大国平衡外交政策的原因:内因是缅甸国内的民族主义情绪不断上升,外因是区域内外各有关国家对中国在缅甸及周边地区影响不断扩大存在恐惧心理。     

Policy Styles and the Swiss Executive Federalism: Comparing Diverging Styles of Cantonal Implementation of the Federal Law on Unemployment

This article focuses on the implementation of the federal law on unemployment insurance (LACI) by the Swiss cantons. Starting in the mid 90s, the second revision of the LACI reformed the Swiss labour market policy. Resulting from a political compromise at the federal parliament between left and right wing parties, this law juxtaposes instruments of reinsertion of the unemployed into the labour market with instruments of control of the unemployed. Thus, the implementation of this federal law varies not only by the degree of application but also by the orientation of application. Some cantons implement the reinsertion instruments and neglect the control instruments, others make intensive use of the control instruments and neglect the reinsertion instruments. Some cantons make an intensive use of both types of instruments while a last group of cantons implements the law in a very sketchy way. The second part of this article deals with the concept of policy style, operationalised around four variables, as an explanation of the diversity of LACI cantonal implementation modes. One quantitative variable—the scope of state intervention—is statistically tested in the entire range of Swiss cantons. The other variables—style of state intervention, co‐ordination and interaction modes of social actors and the main traits of the regional political culture—are examined in six cantonal case studies of the LACI implementation process.     

Salience‐Based Congruence Between Parties & their Voters: The Swiss Case

Policy congruence between parties and their voters is a prerequisite for the latter's representation. Related research typically focuses on the left‐right dimension. We contribute to this literature by conceiving the alignment between citizens and political elites as congruence on issues that individual citizens consider important (salience‐based congruence). Furthermore, we approach salience from the citizen's perspective and measure it at the individual level. Based on data from the Swiss Election Study (2007), we demonstrate that the assessment of party representation changes once we take salience into account. Policy congruence on salient issues is high and niche parties perform better than mainstream parties. Our arguments and findings about the role personal issue salience plays at the individual and party levels have important repercussions for contemporary debates on representation and policy congruence.     

The Silent Reform of Swiss Federalism: The New Constitutional Articles on Education

This article examines the decision‐making process leading to the new constitutional articles on education in Switzerland. It analyzes how actors from both state levels (Confederation and cantons) could reach consensus in a process that was prone to a “joint‐decision trap”. To that end, we hypothesize which factors may be conducive to a “problem‐solving” style of policy‐making in a compulsory negotiation system. Rich empirical material from various sources supports our theoretical arguments: We show that shared beliefs and a common frame of reference, the procedural separation between constitutional and distributional issues, neutral brokers, and informal structures were all beneficial to the success of the reform project.     

Intergovernmental Politics of Fiscal Balance in a Federal Democracy: The Experience of Brazil, 1996–2005

Irresponsible fiscal behavior by subnational units is a concern for federal or decentralized systems, especially in the developing world. States' expenditures in Brazil have been no different. Still, spending varies considerably among the Brazilian states, even after controlling for their financial resources. This article provides a political explanation for the variation in current spending, focusing on intergovernmental political relationships. It argues that credit claiming for pork distributed in a state plays a crucial role and that governors elevate state spending in order to make up for their loss in political credit from the pork distributed by the president. Analyzing data from the period 1996–2005, it finds that expenditures decrease as the relative number of federal deputies from the state governor's party increases compared to the number of deputies from the president's governing coalition when the national agenda encourages federal pork distribution in the states.     

20世纪90年代以来越南天然橡胶产业政策探析

越南的天然橡胶业近年来发展十分迅速。现今,越南已成为世界第五大橡胶生产国、第四大橡胶出口国。越南的天然橡胶业能有如此不俗的表现,离不开越南政府制定、实施的相关产业政策。总结越南政府天然橡胶产业政策的经验,对于身为世界第四大橡胶生产国与最大橡胶消费国的中国来说具有十分重要的研究和现实意义。     

Health Policy in Chile: The Return of the Public Sector?

Health policy in Chile has mirrored the main changes in economic policy in recent times. The 1950s and 1960s witnessed centralisation of public health care into a National Health Service. Neoliberal policies in the 1970s and 1980s refocused health policy onto extending the scope for private insurance and provision in health care. The return to democracy in 1990 has produced a reappraisal of health policy, with the emphasis on strengthening and improving public health insurance and care. This paper examines the extent to which recent changes in health policy signal a reappraisal of the private-public mix in the provision of basic services, and argues that a model for health care and financing built around a strong, modern, and efficient, public health care sector is more likely to succeed in addressing the health needs of the population in Chile and Latin America.     

Explaining Policy Outcomes in Federal Contexts: The Politics of Reproductive Rights in Argentina and Mexico

This article explains the political and institutional factors that affect reproductive rights policies in Argentina and Mexico. Consistent with the comparative literature on gender, politics and institutions, the article reveals that federal arrangements define the arenas in which advocates can challenge governments. The comparative analysis suggests that the content and variations of policy outcomes are not only determined by the legal distribution of such rights. Women's positions towards abortion and contraception was greatly shaped by partisanship and ideology, and this was critical to legislative outcomes, while the number of women legislators was only important to introduce the issues. Important for further research are the effects of institutional and party instability on women's organising in legislatures, and the relevance of links between women's groups outside legislature and political parties for the success of gender equality policies.     

中央-地区-地方自治:当代俄罗斯的中央再集权政策

俄罗斯中央再集权政策的源头、基本观念和利益是什么?这些因素又是如何影响了它的进程和结果?中央再集权对俄罗斯政治发展的意义到底有多大,前景如何?本文旨在探寻这些问题的答案.本文首先纵览俄罗斯1990-2000年变革背景下的地区化趋势;接着考察2000年以来中央再集权进程中各政治力量的理念和利益所在,及其对俄罗斯联邦改革政策的影响,该政策可以称之为"新中央集权"(区别于苏联时期的"旧"中央集权).接下来分析"新中央集权"政策的基本特征及其对俄罗斯国家改革进程的影响.在总结部分,就中央再集权对俄罗斯政治制度的意义加以总结.     

Strength through Weakness: State Executive Power and Federal Reform in Austria

Due to the absence of a strong constitutional veto player, comparative research uses to classify Austria as country with weak federal structures, occasionally even as a “federation without federalism”. From an institutional perspective, the assessment is definitely correct, in particular with regard to the nearly insignificant status of the second chamber Bundesrat. Apart from constitutional provisions, however, there are informal forces at work in decision‐making processes. Our thesis is that any approach ignoring the fact that the nominal constitution is paralleled by a real one falls short. Instead, we focus on the Conference of State Governors which, though not established by law, is a strong player in Austria's multi‐layered system qualifying the picture of “weak” federalism. The paper gives on overview of origin and function of the conference and its ambivalent role in making up for the shortcomings of the federal structures. Taking recent attempts of reorganizing fiscal equalization between states and federation as an example, the need of reforming the allocation of rights and duties between the different levels and, at the same time, the obstacles blocking the reform is outlined and analyzed.     

20世纪90年代以来日本财政政策失效成因

二战后,日本通过实施凯恩斯的积极财政政策,实现了经济的高速增长。然而,伴随着20世纪90年代经济的长期萧条,传统的财政政策失效。本文通过巴罗模型检验了日本各项财政支出对经济增长的影响。实证分析结果表明：公共投资效果不佳成为日本财政政策失效的主要原因,而优化公共投资结构、提高公共投资乘数、调整财政支出结构,防范财政风险可以提高日本财政政策效应。     

Institutional Change in Swiss Cantons: A Contribution to Describing and Explaining Institutional Reforms

Most accounts of Swiss federal institutions are unable to explain institutional change. In this contribution the authors trace change in Cantonal reforms and then use multivariate explanation models to account for institutional reforms such as New Public Management reforms. The multivariate analyses used rely on an “event count model” to explain the frequency of institutional reforms and a “binary response model” to explain why Cantons adopt New Public Management reforms. This research demonstrates that policy research as well as innovation and diffusion theories can contribute to explaining institutional reform.     

论晚清政府对东南亚华侨的保护政策

1860年以后,清政府对东南亚华侨开始实施全面的保护政策,并采取了在华侨居住国设立使领馆、与有关国家签订双边条约及规定等措施。清政府之所以采取这种政策,其主要原因在于当时国际国内形势的变化。这种政策的实施,在一定程度上保护了东南亚华侨的利益,应予肯定。