Is Populism Bad For Business? Assessing The Reputational Effect Of Populist Incumbents

This article seeks to assess whether populist incumbents affect their country’s perceived political stability and business climate. Existing evidence contends that populist governments in European democracies produce more moderate policy outcomes than their agendas would suggest. However, populist parties are still regarded as disruptive, as they are perceived to not conforming to the politics of negotiation and compromise that are central to liberal democracies. Therefore, their presence in government may generate political uncertainty and negatively affect the business climate. Drawing on a sample of 26 European democracies between 1996 and 2016, we find that populist incumbency initially generates market uncertainty, but after about two years in office, the negative effect on the business climate vanishes.     

Sovereignty–Security Nexus,Domestic Constraints,and the Taiwan Independence Policy (1988–2010)

Abstract

This article explains the rise and fall of the so-called Taiwan independence policy during the period of 1988–2010. It defines the Taiwan independence policy as an internal political move by the Taiwanese government to establish Taiwan as a separate and sovereign political entity on the world stage. It reviews two existing prevailing theses – electoral politics and shifting identity – and points out their weaknesses, the former's being its indeterminacy and unfalsifiability, and the latter's being its inadequacy to explain policy change. A new explanation focusing on relative power shift (military balance, alliance strength, and diplomatic standing) and domestic constraints (resource and political constraints) is then proposed to explain the rise and fall of the Taiwan independence policy. A brief examination of the 1988–2010 cross-strait history lends strong support to the theory.     

Resistance to Privatization: Why Protest Movements Succeed and Fail in Latin America

Why do some protest movements in Latin America succeed in rolling back privatizations while others fail? This article argues that protests against privatizations have tended to succeed under two conditions. First, privatization's opponents form linkages (or “brokerage”) across multiple sectors of society. Broad coalitions are more likely to achieve their goals, while groups acting alone, such as labor unions, are more easily defeated or ignored by governments. Second, civil rights are protected but political representation is weak. In that case, opponents have the legal right to protest, but are unlikely to have opportunities for communicating their concerns through formal institutions, which prompts them to channel their demands outside of existing political institutions. Using case examples and logistic regression, this study confirms these arguments and discusses the implications for democracy in the region.     

Tracing Foreign Policy Decisions: A Study of Citizens' Use of Heuristics

Public opinion researchers agree that citizens use simplifying heuristics to reach real, stable preferences. In domestic policy, the focus has been on citizens delegating judgement to opinion leaders, notably political parties. By contrast, citizens have been held to deduce foreign policy opinions from their own values or principles. Yet there is ample scope for delegation in the foreign policy sphere. In this exploratory study I use a 'process-tracing' method to test directly for delegation heuristic processing in university students' judgements on the Iranian nuclear issue. A substantial minority sought guidance on foreign policy decisions, either from parties, international actors or newspapers. This was not always simple delegation; some used such heuristics within more complex decision-making processes. However, others relied on simple delegation, raising questions about the 'effectiveness' of their processing.     

From the ruble zone to the euro zone: the political economy of Estonian macroeconomic policy

This article analyzes Estonian macroeconomic policy since the country regained independence in 1991. Estonia was the first post-communist country to introduce a currency board in 1992, and consecutive governments have systematically prioritized macroeconomic stability and fiscal prudence. Estonia implemented an internal devaluation in 2008–2009, which enabled it to become the first post-Soviet republic to adopt the euro in 2011. This article explores the origins of the currency board and shows how institutions, interests, and ideas have contributed to Estonian exceptionalism in macroeconomic policy and to euro adoption. It demonstrates that the Estonian experience can shed light on the political prerequisites of internal devaluations, which may be of great relevance both to current and future Central and Eastern European euro area members.     

Transnational Strategic Networks and Policymaking in Chile: CORFO's High Technology Investment Promotion Program

Once prey to government patrimonial practices, the Corporación de Fomento de la Producción (CORFO), Chile's economic development agency, overcame this problem in the early 1990s. In 2000 CORFO established a High Technology Investment Promotion Program to promote foreign direct investment in high technology and other nontraditional sectors. This article applies concepts of political survival and cooperation to explain how CORFO moved from patrimonialism to technocratic independence. Then it demonstrates that governments possessing technocratic independence but lacking other characteristics typically associated with successful investment promotion efforts can develop transnational strategic networks of individuals, business associations, and universities to facilitate their learning process in order to devise more effective strategies to promote nontraditional FDI.     

Controlling the unruly agents – linkages between accountability and corruption within the executive structures of Botswana

ABSTRACT

Representative democracy entails delegation of power to representatives and other actors within the political system. Oftentimes, the delegating party has little insight into the actions of the person(s) to whom power is delegated. Ensuring that the power-holder does not misuse his/her powers is, therefore, a challenge. This article analyses accountability mechanisms through which the delegating party can prevent and detect misuse of power in the form of corruption. The article argues that political institutions contribute towards such mechanisms being available/unavailable to the delegating party. The analysis focuses on the case of Botswana, where executive structures stipulate the accountability mechanisms available to principals. As shown by the analysis, principals have formal access to many such mechanisms. Oftentimes, however, these mechanisms are not applied. The analysis shows that accountability alone cannot explain levels of corruption within executive structures of Botswana but that informal rules also explain the presence/absence of corrupt practices.     

Civil-Military Affairs and Security Institutions in the Southern Cone: The Sources of Argentine-Brazilian Nuclear Cooperation

This paper analyzes the conditions in which the governments of Argentina and Brazil founded security institutions in the early 1990s, while they were democratizing. It advances the hypothesis that international cooperation in the security field is often linked to the evolution of civil-military relations. Civilian leaders in both countries established institutions and sought international participation deliberately to achieve civilian control and gain leverage over the military establishment, which they sorely distrusted. The need to stabilize civil-military relations at home was therefore the prime motivating force behind the emergence of security institutions in the Southern Cone. Three mechanisms were at work: omnibalancing, policy handling, and managing uncertainty. These mechanisms are derived from three different schools of thought: realism, organizational-bureaucratic models, and theories of domestic political institutions. Besides explaining the sources of nuclear bilateral cooperation, this argument also serves as a critique of two prominent theories in international relations that attempt to explain cooperation and peaceful relations among democracies: neoliberal insti-tutionalism and democratic peace theory.     

State Government,Political Competition and Education Reform: Comparative Lessons from Brazil

The article explores the connection between democratisation, decentralisation and sub‐national policy making. It seeks to explain variation in the policy choices that were made by Brazilian state governments in the definition of school governance structures following the return to democracy. Whereas some state governments decided to institute the election of school principals by parents, students and teachers, others decided on the maintenance of opaque and discretionary practices that secured the distribution of school posts according to political criteria. The research relies on primary comparative evidence from three states: Bahia, Ceará and Minas Gerais. The argument is that the institutional choices made by state governments depended on the structure of political competition and on the extent and intensity of elite divisions at the state level.     

Clientelism and the Utility of the Left‐Right Dimension in Latin America

This article analyzes the relationship between clientelism and citizens' political orientation in Latin America. Consistent political perceptions in the citizenry are central in traditional theories of political competition. This article argues that clientelism hinders the development of consistent political orientation by reducing the utility of information cues, such as left‐right labels. More specifically, clientelistic parties generate indifference among their supporters toward the left‐right divide by offering them an alternative voting rationale, and increase uncertainty in the political realm by making left‐right labels less meaningful. Both arguments are tested with multilevel regression analyses using cross‐sectional data covering 18 Latin American countries. The results indicate that clientelistic party supporters are more likely to show indifference toward the left‐right dimension and, to a lesser extent, that their left‐right orientation corresponds less with their political attitudes.     

试析二战后英国对缅政策的改变

二战结束后,英国政府的对缅政策发生了令人瞩目的改变.在国内和国际政治形势的推动下,英国政府开始与缅甸民族运动领导人通过谈判解决缅甸独立问题,加快了缅甸本部与山区少数民族的统一进程.英国对缅政策的改变深刻地影响了缅甸战后的政治格局.一方面,以昂山为代表的反法西斯人民自由同盟抓住机会,以和平手段争取缅甸的独立建国;另一方面,自由同盟与缅甸共产党、少数民族的裂痕加深,终于在独立后爆发了内战.     

Victoria's Unique Approach to Road Safety: A History of Government Regulation*

The Australian state of Victoria has a record of proactive and determined legislative action addressing road safety. Its processes and deliberations concerning the introduction of road safety laws serve as a noteworthy case study of political rationality and public policy development. Victoria has taken a unique and pioneering approach to traffic regulation. Using the seatbelt and handheld phone laws as examples, this article examines the political dynamics involved in, and the forms of political reasoning underpinning, the road safety policy decisions taken by Victorian governments. I argue that the different approaches taken by governments are partly due to the interaction of the political imperatives of state institutions imposing regulations for the public good and the protection of individual liberties.     

泰南四府民族分裂主义的由来、演变与出路

在当今世界上,民族与宗教问题往往是引发地区骚乱或局部战争的导火线,而且往往与政治、经济问题交织在一起.泰南四府马来族穆斯林民族分裂主义的性质也基本如此.近百年来它始终困扰着泰国政府,尤其是二战以后,泰南穆斯林地区由于宗教、民族矛盾的发展,政治上的不平等和经济上落后等因素,导致要求独立自决的运动一直延绵不断,并由政治斗争发展到武装斗争.特别是在2001年"9·11"事件发生后,泰南四府原来积存的矛盾被重新激活,民族分裂主义分子公开采取了暴力恐怖手段与政治对抗,企图谋求独立,且愈演愈烈,引起了世人的广泛关注. 综观泰国历届政府的政策,笔者认为,为了打击南部民族分裂主义势力,仅靠法律手段和政治措施是远远不够的,武装镇压或同化政策也是难以奏效的.为了实现民族团结,社会和谐,国家稳定,首先要承认民族文化、宗教信仰等社会发展的多元性,尊重和保护宗教信仰自由,用政治对话代替武力对抗,用改革政策取代同化政策,加快经济发展,缩小贫富差距,增加人民收入,提高生活水平,做到社会公平、分配公正.青年是国家的未来,要重视和加强对青少年的教育和培养.政府要通过诚意来逐步取得绝大多数穆斯林的理解与支持,不给少数顽固的穆斯林分裂主义者以可乘之机.只有这样,才能逐步铲除南部的民族分裂主义势力,真正实现民族和睦、社会和谐和国家的稳定.     

East Germany: another party landscape

Viewed from the heart of the EU in Brussels, German European policy has not been significantly altered by unification. A major reason for this policy continuity is the stability of the composition of German's foreign policy ‘establishment’ in the federal bureaucracy as well as in the political parties. For a combination of reasons, including the economic conjuncture, the enhanced European policy role of the Länder governments, and the lack of socialisation of east Germans into the European project after the Second World War, the political climate has, however, grown more hostile to closer integration. This may prove though to be a conjunctural phenomenon, which will change with an upturn of the German economy. There will be no ‘Britishisation’ of German European policy.     

Congresses versus caudillos: the untold history of democracy in Latin America,with special emphasis on New Granada (Colombia), 1830–60. A new research agenda

SUMMARY

Since their origins, congresses played significant roles in the emerging states of Latin America following independence from Spain. Yet their protagonism has been overshadowed by the so-called caudillos, the strongmen who seem to have dominated the politics of the region during most of the nineteenth century. This article argues that congresses were central political actors in Latin America during the century and it does so by examining their various functions. Congresses served to form governments, to define the legislative agenda and to limit the power of the executive. Congress was the institution around which political parties and their leaders were formed, while the practices of representative government developed.     

Evolution of subnational foreign economic relations in Nigeria

ABSTRACT

In the current dispensation of civilian rule in Nigeria (1999–present), her subnational governments (SNGs) have increasingly been engaging in economic activities which impact on how Nigeria conducts her international economic interactions. This emerging trend is at variance with the existing legal provisions under the 1999 Nigerian Constitution, which preclude SNGs from this policy space. This article examines the evolution of the constitutional framework for SNG involvement in Nigeria’s foreign economic relations since independence. It is the argument in this article that the exclusion of SNGs from foreign affairs under the 1999 Constitution is a departure from the original configuration at independence. It is further argued that the recent episodes of SNG involvement in international economic activities are occurring despite the constitutional restrictions owing to external factors such as globalisation and internal factors such the growing need among SNGs to find alternative ways to fund their economic development objectives.     

Political Indigestion: Germany Confronts Genetically Modified Foods

Why has German policy toward agricultural biotechnology been notably unsupportive, compared to other countries with large biotechnology industries, despite its economic significance and the senior governing party's initial support across both the SPD–Green and Grand Coalition governments? I argue that German policy is the result of the interlocking dynamics in the economic and political arenas. In both realms, the GMO issue led to ‘business conflict’ by dividing economic sectors into pro-GMO and anti-GMO blocs. This enhanced the anti-GMO movement's ‘opportunity structures’ in both the economic and the political arena. It also affected the relative strength of contending political coalitions on both sides of the GMO issue, which in turn affected policy outcomes. Finally, I argue that the partisan composition of Germany's coalition governments also contributed to the outcome.     

The Spanish Parliament and legislative delegation (1844–1849)1

A study of executive power and the legislative elaboration process during the reign of Isabel II leads to an understanding of one of the government's distinctive features. During the rule of the Moderate Party (1844–1854), and despite the fact that according to the Constitution of 1845 the legislative initiative lay with the king and the parliament, the ministerial initiatives prevailed over parliamentary proposals by means of legislative delegation. The lack of constitutional regulation brought about the existence of several types of delegation. Contemporaries noted their excessive use arising from the fact that it was very easy to govern with this system and, above all, because they were granted to all governments without political distinction. A paradigmatic illustration of the use of delegation is the Spanish Penal Code of 1848. This was because of the scope of its contents (the code put an end to the Ancien Regime in Spain) and because it had a structure and a scientific orientation which were going to exert a recognised influence, not only on Spain's subsequent Spanish Penal Codes until reaching the one in force from 1995, but also in Latin America. The Penal Code was equally important, because it clearly shows how the chambers themselves were not only unable to limit the government's capacity to introduce law, but even enlarged it by conferring upon the latter extraordinary powers for its future reform, limited by the only condition that the government had to inform the chambers once the reforms had been completed. An analysis of parliamentary debates allows us to understand the position of the moderate and progressive parties towards this practice.     

Postretrenchment Politics: Policy Feedback in Chile's Health and Pension Reforms

Through a comparison of three periods of health and pension reform in Chile, this article develops an explanation for the incremental form of social policy change that some Latin American nations have witnessed in recent years, despite the dramatic rise of left governments. It describes “postretrenchment politics,” which constitutes a realignment in the way politics plays out in countries that have undergone social policy retrenchment. In postretrenchment politics, the strengthened position of private business interests, combined with political learning legacies and lock‐in effects generated by reforms, results in incremental political change, despite renewed efforts by left parties to address inequality. Global capital also plays an important contextual role, and may influence postretrenchment politics. In postretrenchment politics, newly reformed systems may achieve greater equity, but they do so in fragmented form.     

Ambitious Goals,Deficient Output: Tax and Fiscal Policies of the Conservative–Liberal Government, 2009–13

Tax policy was at the heart of the Merkel II government's reform agenda. The CDU/CSU and FDP promised significant tax cuts and simplifications of the tax system. During their term, however, they remained the least active of all German governments of the last four decades. Why? This article argues that a combination of factors relating to the dynamics of electoral competition and structural problem pressure can explain this outcome: The new constitutional debt brake and the Euro Crisis foreclosed the traditional ‘solution’ of glossing over the conflict within the coalition between its economically liberal constituency (FDP and parts of CDU/CSU) and pro-welfare state constituency (other parts of CDU/CSU) by combining tax reductions with continued high spending. The result was a devastating loss for the FDP in the 2013 elections, and a victory for the CDU/CSU which profited from positioning itself as a moderate and stabilising political force in uncertain times of crisis.