Forecasting the 2016 General Election in Jamaica

The objective of the article is to explain the methodologies and the findings of the 2016 Jamaican General Election forecasts. The Good Judgment Project’s CHAMPSKNOW system was applied using qualitative and quantitative methods. The research question was: what were the probabilities of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) or the People’s National Party (PNP) winning the 25 February 2016 General Election? The data were drawn from election results and macro-economic variables from 1962 to 2015; polls from 1976 to 2016; campaign ads; election newspaper stories; constituency fund disbursements and independent surveys in marginal seats. The results showed that the JLP had a greater number of ads with better and clearer policy contents than the PNP ads. The JLP also received more positive news coverage during the campaign. MPs who spent a large part of their constituency funds on welfare were more likely to win. The PNP had more garrison, traditional and marginal seats than the JLP so the PNP had the edge. Moreover, the data from the independent surveys and the macro-economic analyses indicated the likelihood of a PNP win. The national polls revealed a statistical dead heat but the forecasts started with the governing PNP having a slightly greater probability of winning because of its active political business cycle in which the PNP was rolling out programmes throughout the country in the election year. The forecasts were revised when the JLP narrowed the gap because the PNP refused to participate in the national debate, which generated negative news about the PNP. The final forecast said the election would be close with the PNP having the edge. However, the JLP’s tax plan was a wild card, which gave the party the edge with a one-seat victory.     

印尼、马来西亚大选后的政治与经济情况述评

印尼与马来西亚是同文同种并具有共同宗教信仰的国家,国情也有许多相似之处.2004年是两国的大选年,大选后马来西亚巴达维政权稳固发展,印尼苏西洛新政府加大反贪反恐和重建经济的力度,两国将步入稳定发展时期.     

民主不是万应灵丹--评菲律宾和印尼的总统直选

民主制度属于政治文明.在一个国家,政治文明的发展必须与物质文明和精神文明同步,如果太过超前,就有可能出问题.民主制度的建立和完善必须循序渐进,既不能超越历史发展阶段,也不能超越物质文明和精神文明,这是世界各国,尤其是许多发展中国家政治发展的历史所证明了的一个真理.     

General Election 2015 in Singapore: What Social Media Did and Did not Do

Abstract

The online buzz leading up to the 2015 Singapore general election (GE2015) favoured opposition parties and personalities, encouraging perceptions that the opposition would garner more votes than in 2011. Instead, the ruling People’s Action Party won and saw an increase in their vote share from 60.1% in 2011 to 69.9%. What role, then, did social media play in this election? This study shows that, against prevailing assumptions, GE2015 was not a social media election. Through an online survey of 2,000 respondents conducted after polling day, it was found that mainstream media and their online counterparts were used most frequently and were trusted more as sources of information about the election. Online and offline political participation was also low. However, social media users were more interested in election issues, were more likely to discuss politics with others and participated more in offline political activities than non-users.     

参议院选举后的日本政党政治

日本第22届参议院选举后,由于民主党与国民新党组成的执政联盟丧失了在参议院的多数席位,“扭曲国会”再次出现,致使日本政党政治的局面曼趋复杂。综合运用计量分析和实证描述方法,通过权力、制度、选民3个层面,以政权运营的状况、选举的非代表性缺陷、选民偏好和舆论影响为视角对参议院选举后的日本政党政治进行全面分析,将有助于深刻理解当前日本政党政治的生态环境及其发展路径。     

The territorial genealogies of Russia's political parties and the transferability of political machines

This article uses statistical analysis of aggregate electoral returns in order to establish continuities in the territorial patterns of support between four major political parties of contemporary Russia, on the one hand, and those parties that contested national legislative (Duma) elections from 1993 through 2007, on the other hand. It is hypothesized that such continuities, dubbed “territorial genealogies,” are largely rooted in the migration of region-based gubernatorial political machines from one national party to another, which constitutes a major flow of organizational continuity in the development of political parties. Statistical analysis confirms that the main hubs of machine politics in Russia's regions, originating from the intra-elite struggles of the 1990s, provide United Russia with the territorial core of its current support. Other political parties retain electoral salience in those regions where their electoral appeal is not mitigated by the presence of political machines, which underscores the importance of non-machine party organization for their electoral destinies.     

Shifting Logics: The Discourses of Turkish Political Elites on EU Accession

Abstract

The article compares the EU accession discourses, during the 2002, 2007 and 2011 elections, of Turkey’s governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) with those of the two main opposition parties, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), tracking the continuities and shifts in their discourses. In the light of Habermas’s distinction between pragmatic, ethical and moral justifications, the discourses are analysed on the basis of three explanatory logics – interests, rights and identity – by means of a theoretically guided qualitative content analysis of the election manifestos of these three political parties. These logics, emerging and shifting in line with periodical dynamics, have been instrumental to varying degrees in the discourses of Turkey’s political elites.     

Contested Forests: An Analysis of the Highlander Response to Logging,Ratanakiri Province,Northeast Cambodia

This article examines in detail the influence of the global on state-local relationships in the particular context of Ratanakiri Province, Northeast Cambodia. It is argued that modern state power in Cambodia is based on Western concepts of nation-building, including territorialization, assimilation, economic development, and the commercial exploitation of resources and has led to the incorporation of the remote forested areas of the periphery into the net of the state. Since the 1993 election, the plunder of the northeast has been justified in the name of “development.” The author shows that the response of forest-dependent highlanders to this state intervention cannot be understood as either simple opposition or acquiescence. Rather it has been a contradictory and fragmentary response, emerging from the conflicting desires for autonomy over land and forests and for the benefits to be gained from “development” and inclusion within the hypothesized “nation-state.”     

Towards political integration in Europe: the involvement of national parliaments in European Union politics and policy-making

This article provides an overview of the life of the European Union over a period that has witnessed a number of historical international and institutional developments, and provides a politico-juridico-historical perspective on its growth. The article aims to examine the role of national parliaments in relation to increasing European legislative powers. The European Union is using these powers to ensure that non-European-Union states accept its rules as universal standards. At the same time, European foreign policy has expanded remarkably, reflecting its more prominent international role. The European Parliament is the world's first directly elected transnational parliament. In recent decades, the principles of human rights, peace, and democracy have reflected the deeply embedded values at the core of European integration since its inception, determining the evolution of the European Union from international actor to a model of democratization: a model promoting not only respect for human rights, but also democracy and peace, which have become concrete goals steering the European Union foreign policy.     

当代俄罗斯政党财政及其对选举的影响——以第七届国家杜马选举为例

《俄罗斯联邦联邦会议国家杜马代表选举法》对选举基金有专门规定:政党参加选举一定要建立政党选举基金.政党选举基金全部经费支出最高不超过7亿卢布.政党的自有资金不可超过选举基金限额的50％,即3.5亿卢布,对公民和法人捐赠的条件和金额也有相应限制.通过对参加第七届俄罗斯国家杜马选举的全部14个政党的选举财政情况进行研究可得出以下结论:选举基金的支出与第七届俄罗斯国家杜马选举结果没有直接的因果关系;意识形态因素对杜马选举发挥着重要作用,"统一俄罗斯"党和俄罗斯联邦共产党这两个党具有更多的选举竞争力;在第七届国家杜马选举中,最终获得进入俄国家杜马资格的4个主要政党除俄罗斯联邦共产党之外,都有募集到直接的政治献金,这些政治献金在俄罗斯是合法的;进入国家杜马中的政党在印刷宣传品方面的选举支出所发挥的作用要比其在电视宣传方面的选举支出发挥的作用大.     

大国关系及美国大选对全球局势的影响:俄罗斯智库与媒体看法

俄罗斯智库与媒体肯定当前世界秩序处于重大变革时期,特朗普外交政策以及新冠肺炎疫情都给世界带来了巨大改变,同时俄罗斯自身还面临着经济社会发展和周边国家关系等问题,需要以“新思维”来看待和解决。不过,俄罗斯官方不完全认可“新冷战”说法。俄罗斯智库与媒体看到,至少在中短期内,中美矛盾将是世界主要矛盾,俄罗斯可以利用中美竞争谋求发展。如果面临两极格局必须做出选择,对俄罗斯而言更优选择是与中国结盟。从美国民主党对俄罗斯的传统政策以及拜登对普京及俄罗斯的态度看,美国大选结果对俄罗斯不是很有利,但无论特朗普当选还是拜登当选,美国外交政策的总体方向都不会有原则性改变。对于世界格局,俄罗斯智库判断有多种发展趋向,俄力主多极世界,并将努力推动这一局面的形成。     

Paradoxes of electoral authoritarianism: the 2015 Ethiopian elections as hegemonic performance

The 2015 elections in Ethiopia had a predictable outcome, showing an entrenched system of one-party dominance that self-referentially enacts the political order created by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) since 1991. EPRDF spokespersons continued to defend the party’s hegemony as inevitable, grounded in a logic of technocratic authority and with reference to ‘stability’ and ‘development’. This paper describes the electoral process not in the light of democracy theory but of hegemonic governance theory. Elections seem to have lost relevance in Ethiopia as a means of political expression and are only important as a performance of hegemonic governance and as ‘global impression management’ – showing state skills in securing a smooth electoral process as a major organisational feat in itself. Contradictions that the political process creates between the Ethiopian party-state and domestic constituencies, and between the attitudes/policies of certain donor countries, are downplayed or avoided, but problematic in the long run.     

The power of proximity: A concept of political party strategies applied to Burkina Faso

Recent publications suggest that exclusively ethno-regional parties are as rare in sub-Saharan Africa as elsewhere. At the same time, the idea that ethnicity is a very special feature of African party politics persists. This article acknowledges the general relevance of ethnicity in party competition but emphasises the level at which it becomes important. It develops a micro-behavioural approach that pays particular attention to the strategic choices of party elites in order to supplement the dominant structuralist thinking in party research on Africa. An in-depth evaluation of detailed election data from Burkina Faso shows strategies that rely on personal proximity between the voter and the candidates influence the parties' success to a great extent. Parties maximise their chances of winning seats if they concentrate their limited resources on the home localities of leading party members. Hence, African party politics are less dependent on ethnic demography than is often implied but more open to change through elite behaviour.     

Singapore General Election 2015 and the Role of Citizenship Education

Abstract

This article explores the role of education, in particular citizenship education, in shaping the Singapore electorate. An understanding of the history of citizenship education helps to shed light on the contemporary political culture in Singapore. The extent to which democratic citizenship education has been taught in schools since 1958 is explored. Singapore’s citizenship education has consistently stressed the duties and responsibilities of citizenship, patriotism, national identity and moral values—with the goal of nation-building and legitimising the People’s Action Party state. This reflective historical piece on Singapore’s educational history adds a relatively unexplored facet to the discussions on the general election 2015 results as well as Singapore’s subsequent political development. The results of the 2015 general election in Singapore, seen in this light, are not so surprising, as they reflect the success of the state’s citizenship education in shaping the current political culture.     

Nothing personal: explaining the rise and decline of political machines in Ukraine

This article is the first to explore and compare the dynamics of party-building between the three main political forces that competed for power during the last decade in Ukraine – Viktor Yushchenko's Nasha Ukrayina (Our Ukraine), Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna (Fatherland), and Viktor Yanukovych's Partiya Rehioniv (Party of Regions). We show that their political trajectories can be explained by differences in their organizational structure and distribution of resources within the party's leadership. When a party depends on resources linked primarily to one individual, it will develop a personalized decision-making structure advantaging its leader, and the party's fortunes will be tied to the popularity (or lack of same) of the leader. By contrast, when a party relies equally on resources from several groups, a more consociational style of decision-making is likely to emerge. Using Ukraine as a case study, the article shows that personality-led parties will be more vulnerable to defections and less capable of absorbing potential competitors. On the other hand, coalition-led parties are better capable of surviving defeats, maintaining internal cohesion, and merging with like-minded parties.     

Explaining the Rise of Class Politics in Venezuela

The sudden rise to power of leftist former coup leader Hugo Chávez and the subsequent politicisation of social class raises a number of interesting questions about the sources of class politics and political change in Venezuela. Using nationally representative survey data over time, this article considers different explanations for the rise of class politics. It argues that explanations for the politicisation of class can best be understood in terms of 'top-down' approaches that emphasise the role of political agency in reshaping and re-crafting political identities, rather than more 'bottom-up' factors that emphasise the demands that originate within the electorate. The economic crises during the 1990s undermined support for the existing parties, but it did not create a politically salient class-based response. Rather, it created the electoral space that facilitated new actors to enter the political stage and articulate new issue dimensions.     

Neutralising Punitive Asylum Seeker Policies: An Analysis of Australian News Media During the 2013 Federal Election Campaign

ABSTRACT

For almost two decades, negative portrayals of asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat have been dominant within political and media discourses. In particular, asylum seekers have been portrayed as a “dangerous other”—as an illegal group that the public ought to fear and from which they require protection—rather than as a vulnerable group who require protection themselves. This article examines some of the ways in which these discourses make possible public support for punitive policies relating to the treatment of asylum seekers (particularly boat arrivals)—policies that violate many of the human rights instruments to which Australia is a signatory. Specifically, this paper uses Sykes and Matza’s (1957) work on “Techniques of Neutralisation”, which considers the way in which those who knowingly commit illegal, immoral, or harmful acts neutralise their behaviour and disavow its harmful effects, to analyse these dynamics. In particular, it focuses on the political and media discourses regarding asylum seeking produced during the 2013 Australian federal election campaign. The paper argues that these theoretical tools can be effectively applied to this case study and provide some insight into the ongoing punitive treatment of asylum seekers in Australia.     

The Monetisation of Consent and its Limits: Explaining Political Dominance and Decline in Malaysia

ABSTRACT

Malaysia’s 14th General Election in 2018 toppled the Barisan Nasional government after six decades in power. Barisan Nasional’s longevity was due to its performance legitimacy and a capacity to manipulate electoral mechanisms. However, it was the use of money in eliciting consent that led to a political change. This article traces how sustaining the dominance of the Barisan Nasional under Najib Razak used a strategy which we term the monetisation of consent. However, when monetising consent loses its efficacy, political dominance is challenged. We discuss why and how manufacturing consent through the use of money has its limits when regime legitimacy is challenged. Intense political competition on the electoral terrain from 2008 and the multiplication of Malay-Muslim political parties induced Najib’s greater personal grip on state funds to gain political support. This resulted in the Najib regime’s kleptocratic turn. Beyond the disbursement of largesse to political power brokers and business elites, his government monetised consent as a populist strategy. The reduced efficacy of electoral manipulation made the monetisation of consent imperative for regime survival but the use of money and unpopular fiscal policies, which deprived citizens of disposable income, led to a legitimacy crisis and the Barisan Nasional’s defeat.     

Avoiding another Brexit: the subsidiarity principle,the European Convention on Human Rights and the United Kingdom

ABSTRACT

Following a number of controversial judgments, the British government has been pushing for some time for a limitation of the supervisory powers of the Human Rights Court in Strasbourg. On a British proposal, the member states of the Council of Europe agreed in 2012 to include a reference to the subsidiarity principle into the Preamble of the European Convention on Human Rights. This paper describes these developments and explores the possible role of subsidiarity considerations in the context of international human rights protection.     

The evolution of the New Patriotic Party in Ghana

This paper examines the emergence and development of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) government in the context of a broader examination of the roles of political parties within the Ghanaian political landscape. After describing the political architecture as well as some significant constitutional issues of Ghana's democracy and the roles played by other societal stakeholders, the paper examines the rationale for the formation of the NPP, its manifesto, structure, constituency, power brokers. It then analyses various aspects of the implementation (or not) of the NPP's political and economic objectives since it came to power in 2000 with a message of ‘positive change’. The electoral politics of the campaigns against its major opposition, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), and issues of regionalism, ethnicity and other factors are considered in detail. The paper concludes with some lessons learned and generic recommendations for emerging African political parties in relatively young democracies.