Real and perceived effects of changing the grant system from specific to general grants

The paper is based on a study of the 1993 Finnish grant reform, changing from a system with earmarked matching grants to a system with general, non-matching grants. The analysis of cross-sectional data confirms the “fly-paper effect” and also that matching grants have a stronger stimulating effect than non-matching grants on local expenditure. The fly-paper effect is then modified to take account of the distribution of power inside local government. The change to general grants without central government supervision might mean more power to the central management in the local government and a diminished power for sector officers and groups dependent on the sector services. Perceptions of principal actors in the local government budget process were that the reform changed the distribution of power, in some municipalities to the disadvantage of locally small weak groups that could benefit under the old system of earmarked matching grants.     

International sources of environmental policy change in China: the case of genetically modified food

Abstract

China's agricultural biotechnology policy has undergone a profound transformation over the last decade, from a strongly promotional to a more precautionary approach. From the 1980s onwards, China invested heavily in biotechnology development and in the early 1990s emerged as the leading biotech country in the developing world. In the late 1990s, however, it halted the authorization of new genetically modified crops and introduced stringent safety regulations. This paper investigates this policy shift and argues that international factors have played a central role. Two trends, in particular, are identified as key sources of the move towards greater precaution: China's ongoing international socialization, particularly in the context of the international scientific debate on biosafety and the negotiations on a biosafety treaty; and the growing globalization of agriculture and trade, which has exposed China to international competitive forces and trade restrictions in food trade. As the case of genetically modified food in China shows, political integration and economic globalization can work together to promote a strengthening of the domestic environmental policy agenda.     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.     

Government turnover: Concepts, measures and applications

Abstract.  While government turnover is often thought of as an adverse source of instability, it may also be viewed as a favourable source of competition and institution-building. To articulate and test such hypotheses, this article describes two main concepts of government turnover: leadership turnover , or change in rulers, and ideological turnover , or change in the rulers' ideology. Refinements involve the mode, outcome and timing of turnover. The article discusses measurement issues that arise when there are multiple power institutions and when parliaments are controlled by changing majority coalitions. The measures of turnover are illustrated by examining the post-communist world. The article considers the possibility that higher cumulative post-transition turnover – in terms of leaderships or ideologies – has assisted in establishing the rule of law.     

From general training to projeetization: Implications for learning processes and the roles of trainers

A large component of development aid in the past has been in the form of scholarships for officials and managers to attend short and long training programmes in the west. However, it has increasingly been felt that the impact of such programmes is limited, and hence the donor community is placing increased emphasis on ‘projectized’ training programmes, i.e. training that is geared to specific development projects in a particular country. This shift has implications for the nature of the training, the learning processes involved and the roles of trainers. This article explores these issues, firstly reviewing the debate between ‘open’ and ‘projectized’ training, and then going on to report on a case study involving a ‘projectized’ learning event run for the Nigerian Civil Service as part of its Civil Service reform programme. The case study explores the main differences between ‘open’ and ‘projectized’ training, demonstrates some of the potential problems with ‘projectized’ learning and, where appropriate, suggests solutions and offers a number of practical suggestions for trainers to consider for operating in an increasingly ‘projectized’ training scene.     

Measuring re-election prospects across electoral systems: a general approach applied to Germany

This research note presents a general approach for measuring the electoral safety of individual MPs across electoral systems that is based on predicted re-election probabilities estimated from multilevel logistic regression models. In contrast to existing measures, this method yields estimates on an intuitive and readily comparable probability scale, captures the higher sensitivity of re-election prospects to electoral change in the range of close races, and can accommodate regional differences in context conditions such as volatility. The paper implements the approach for two archetypical electoral systems – first-past-the-post (FPTP) systems and closed-list proportional representation (PR) – and estimates re-election prospects for the FPTP and PR tiers of the German mixed electoral system in all Bundestag elections since 1957. While the empirical data presented here is mainly illustrative, the concluding section highlights various questions that future research can address with the new measure.     

The role of teacher quality in retention and hiring: Using applications to transfer to uncover preferences of teachers and schools

Many large urban school districts are rethinking their personnel management strategies, often giving increased control to schools in the hiring of teachers, reducing, for example, the importance of seniority. If school hiring authorities are able to make good decisions about whom to hire, these reforms have the potential to benefit schools and students. Prior research on teacher transfers uses career history data, identifying the school in which a teacher teaches in each year. When such data are used to see which teachers transfer, it is unclear the extent to which the patterns are driven by teacher preferences or school preferences, because the matching of teachers to schools is a two‐sided choice. This study uses applications‐to‐transfer data to examine separately which teachers apply for transfer and which get hired and, in so doing, differentiates teacher from school preferences. Holding all else equal, we find that teachers with better pre‐service qualifications (certification exam scores, college competitiveness) are more likely to apply for transfer, while teachers whose students demonstrate higher achievement growth are less likely. On the other hand, schools prefer to hire “higher quality” teachers across measures that signal quality. The results suggest that not only do more effective teachers prefer to stay in their schools but that schools are able to identify and hire the best candidates when given the opportunity © 2010 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Theories of legislation: some Austrian evidence and general conclusions

Abstract. After defining legislation as an extended process which includes initiation, preparation, legislation proper as well as implementation, an empirically derived threefold typology of laws differentiating them according to the groups most active in the initiation phase is proposed. Taking into consideration the official and unofficial policy theories of these groups, predictions can be made about the degree of effectiveness of laws. Some empirical evidence supports these assumptions. In this way a better understanding of the extended lawmaking process and the conditions for the successful implementation of laws may be achieved.     

Going beyond technocratic and democratic principles: stakeholder acceptance of instruments in Swiss energy policy

Policy Sciences - This paper is about stakeholders’ acceptance regarding regulatory instruments in energy policy. We expect that today’s introduced instruments not only correspond most...     

Muffling the swing: STV and the Irish general election of 1981

This article explores alternative hypotheses for variation in the political salience of unemployment. The differences between the political opinions of employed and unemployed people are used as a proxy for the qualitative importance of unemployment. Unemployment is not found to be more politically salient when government support of the unemployed is more generous or when jobless spells are shorter. Far more important is the character of employment. Unemployment is more politically salient in countries where employment guarantees a basic livelihood. The data also suggest that unemployment has greater salience in countries where the unemployed are more likely to use state employment exchanges in searching for work. Two conclusions are suggested. First, public toleration of high unemployment in recent decades may be partly the result of the rise of atypical work arrangements. Second, while it is debatable whether social‐democratic protections of employment standards increase unemployment rates, such efforts may inadvertently increase the political costs of high unemployment.     

信息化视域下思政教育有效性提升的基本原则

信息化视域下,信息技术的发展与应用要求高校思想政治教育工作者在深入分析和把握高等教育对象、高等教育生态等发展变化的基础上,牢固把握高校思想政治教育的主动权和主导权,遵循高校思想政治教育活动的基本原则,不断创新高校思想政治教育理念、改进方式方法,不断提升高校思想政治教育的针对性和有效性。     

Strategic voting and effective representation thresholds: Evidence from three Spanish general elections

The extent of strategic voting in the Spanish general elections of 2000, 2004 and 2008 is estimated using a new measure of strategic incentives suitable for proportional representation systems that avoids some of the problems associated with lagged variables. Strategic behaviour increased from 12 to 33 per cent of the electoral base of the United Left Party, the major victim of strategic defection. This estimate is a conservative one as elite mobilisation is controlled for in the constituencies, which is unusual in the literature on strategic voting that uses regression‐based methods.     

Political change and stability of the popularity function: The French general election of 1981

France experienced in May, 1981, a drastic political change, the influence of which on stability of the popularity function, from V. Giscard d'Estaing to F. Mitterrand, is examined here. First, a survey of existing estimates of French popularity functions is presented, and the main problems they raise are briefly discussed. The theoretical effects of government change are then analyzed, with a distinction between global effects (honeymoon and others) and distribution effects; these effects are then linked to the moves of ideologically motivated voters. Finally, new estimates are presented on French data for two periods, the first corresponding to Giscard's tenure only and the second including Mitterrand's tenure. The main conclusion is that the popularity function remained fairly stable, except for a move in the intercept when the Socialists came to power. This move is, in large part, the result of attitudinal changes in the more ideologically oriented electors, as results on disaggregated data indirectly confirm.     

The undecided voters and the economy: Campaign heterogeneity in the 2005 British general election

Research and conventional wisdom suggest that undecided voters are especially prone to campaign persuasion. Little has been done, however, in the way of uncovering the decision pathways followed by these voters. In this paper we seek to assess the undecided voters’ alleged campaign susceptibility and, most importantly, to explore which campaign considerations inform their final voting decisions. Our central finding is that their behaviour is driven to a larger extent by economic performance and less by leadership or other valence evaluations. This finding has important implications for parties’ campaign strategies in an era where the ranks of undecided voters are steadily expanding from one election to the other.     

Small winners and big losers: strategic party behaviour in the 2017 Dutch general election

Abstract

This article analyses party strategies during the campaign for the Dutch general election of March 2017, making use of issue-yield theory. It investigates whether parties strategically emphasise high-yield issues, by juxtaposing the issue opportunities provided by voters with parties’ issue emphasis during the campaign. More specifically, it asks whether parties strategically emphasised issues that were expected to reward them electorally. Analysing voter preferences and party campaign data, it is found that parties and most of their constituencies show high ideological consistency, that parties emphasise mostly positional issues and thus choose a conflict-mobilising strategy, and that most parties emphasise high-yield issues rather than following the general political agenda. Four small parties that won significantly behaved strategically while the social democrats – who severely lost – hardly did. The findings imply that the issue-yield framework can help to explain the election result in the fragmented Dutch multi-party context.     

Education and economic growth in the United States: cross-national applications for an intra-national path analysis

Do the leading predictors of economic growth found in the cross-national research have a capacity to predict economic growth at the state level in the United States (US)? Are the effects of education spending on economic growth underestimated because research fails to examine the indirect effects of spending on economic growth? This article presents the findings from a study investigating the relationship between education and economic growth in US states while controlling for the effects of the leading predictors of economic growth from the cross-national research. It also utilizes a path model to examine direct and indirect relationships between education spending and economic growth measured as per capita income growth. The results indicate that spending on higher education and highway expenditures demonstrate a positive association with growth in per capita income, while K12 (kindergarten through 12th grade) spending and K12 pupil–teacher ratios demonstrate a negative association with income growth from 1988 to 2005. Moreover, K12 spending and population growth indirectly affect income growth through their relationship with K12 pupil–teacher ratios, and spending on higher education indirectly affects income growth through college attainment rates. Overall, all but one variable from the cross-national research demonstrates a significant direct or indirect relationship with income growth during at least one time-period investigated. Treating K12 pupil–teacher ratios and college attainment as mediating variables also enhances our understanding of the dynamics that explain growth in per capita income at the sub-national level in the US. However, some unexpected findings emerge when the data are analyzed on the basis of two eight-year sub-periods.     

Belief systems concerning the environment: The general public,attentive publics,and state legislators

This paper examines multiple characteristics of belief systems among people at different levels in the policy process using the same measures in the same time period. More specifically, it analyzes belief systems concerning the environment among the general public, several attentive publics, and state legislators in Idaho. The following belief system characteristics are probed: horizontal constraint among specific issue beliefs, and between general environmental orientations and party and ideology; vertical constraint between the general environmental orientation and specific issue beliefs; and the role of general orientations in screening incoming information. Legislators are more likely to connect their environmental beliefs to partisan and ideological orientations. However, attentive and general public respondents do exhibit substantial constraintwithin the environmental issue domain; individual self-placement on a preservationist-developmentalist dimension appears to provide a cohering force in orientations to the environment. While legislators exhibit greater belief connections with general political orientations, the results also suggest an order in the public's beliefs about the environment and in the nature of conflict over the environment.