Support for Earmarked Public Spending on Culture: Evidence from a Referendum in Metropolitan Detroit

Using the precinct‐level voting results of a 2002 referendum in Metropolitan Detroit to increase property taxes, with the proceeds earmarked for cultural institutions, this paper inquires into the pattern of voting support for an increased public funding of culture. The estimation matches voting precincts to census tracts, and employs tract‐level economic and demographic data. Results are compared with public opinion survey data from the United States and a similar referendum in Switzerland.     

Microwards at postcode level

Much has been made of declining turnout in elections. This is due to a number of factors, and several remedies have been proposed. Voting behaviour seems to depend largely on socioeconomic factors. Partly due to the inordinate expense of household‐level statistics, however, little is known of the demographic breakdown of voting and non‐voting. An effective way of overcoming this would be to crudely estimate the demographics involved by allocating households to consistent voting groupings. Large geographic groups are unwieldy and probably not sufficiently accurate; however, postcode‐level definitions can allow similar but non‐adjacent households in the same general area to be treated as a unit for statistical purposes. This allows consistent trends in voting over the last four general elections in Scotland to be demonstrated. Copyright © 2004 Henry Stewart Publications     

Impacting the Political Landscape: Who Registers and Votes Among Naturalized Americans?

Little is known about the voting behavior of naturalized Americans, primarily due to a lack of good quality data on the national level. Using data from the Voting and Registration Supplement to the November 1996 Current Population Survey (CPS), we examine whether region of origin and length of time spent in the United States affect the likelihood of registering and voting among naturalized citizens, net of other socioeconomic and demographic factors already known to influence electoral behavior. We find that naturalized citizens who have a longer length of time at current residence and in the United States, and those who are older, with more education and higher income are more likely to register and vote. Region of origin is not a major explanatory variable, but there are differences in registering and voting by country of origin among naturalized citizens from Asia and Latin America. Finally, being registered is a necessary but not sufficient condition that predicts voting among naturalized citizens from Asia and from Latin America.     

Why chads? Determinants of voting equipment use in the United States

This paper provides an empirical study of the determinants of voting equipment choice in the United States. We document that, in contrast to widespread belief, voting machines of older types, such as lever and punchcard systems, are not used in counties with lower income – and newer machines, such as optical scanners and electronic machines, are not used in – richer counties. We provide an economic explanation for this and other regularities of voting equipment usage in the United States. In our economic framework (a) the adoption of a new technology is more likely in richer and larger counties, but (b) the adoption of a new technology is less likely the more advanced is the technology already adopted in the county. The adoption of more advanced optical and electronic machines in the 1980s and 1990s was less likely in richer and larger counties that had already mechanized and computerized in previous decades than in poorer and smaller – and hence not yet computerized counties. Estimates of historical determinants of voting equipment choice support our hypothesis. In particular, the probability of using punchcard machines in the 1990s is positively related to a county’s income in the 1960s, when punchcard machines were first introduced. When the effect of past income is controlled for, the effect of more recent levels of income on the probability of using punchcard machines becomes negative.     

Truth and Fiction: A Study of the Gender Gap in the US National Legislature

In the United States, women are generally perceived to vote more liberally than men. Analysing voting patterns from 12 US Congresses (the 94th to 105th Congress) on a range of political issues, I conduct an estimation explaining voting behaviour by gender, differences in party identification and affiliation with different geographical regions in the United States. My results indicate that women do generally vote more liberally than men, but this difference can be attributed to differences in party identification and regional representation more than to gender differences.     

Environmental Federalism at Decade's End: New Approaches and Strategies

This article examines several recent trends in environmentalpolicy that may have important effects over the next decadeon federal-state relations and on the nation's environmentalquality. It focuses on the Environmental Protection Agency'sefforts to "reinvent" environmental regulation and to encouragecommunity-based environmental protection as a more effectiveand acceptable approach to environmental policy. We considerthe extent to which these new directions are likely to improverelations between the federal government and states, localities,and the private sector, and to achieve desired levels of environmentalprotection in the United States. The new approaches are highlypromising; yet they also face significant barriers to implementation.Congressional reform of the key statutes could lend much-neededsupport to such efforts.     

Voter Disenfranchisement and Policy toward Election Reforms

How did poverty, race, population density, and other demographic characteristics affect disenfranchisement in the 2004 presidential election? I argue that there are two types of disenfranchisement: partisan disenfranchisement, which targets Democrats, and structural disenfranchisement, which targets members of low‐status groups. Drawing demographic data from the United States census in 2000, and voting data from the secretaries of state websites, I use a negative binomial regression to correlate these variables with the incidence of voter disenfranchisement as collected by the Election Incident Reporting System, for the three “swing” states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, with the “safe” states of California and Texas as controls. The results of this analysis indicate that disenfranchisement increases with population density, Black population, Democratic loyalty, and as the margin of victory decreases. Income and education also correlate with an increase in reported incidents of disenfranchisement, but that likely reflects the failings of self‐report data.     

Governing Small‐Town America Today: The Promise and Dilemma of Dense Networks

This essay examines the governance of small towns in the United States. Small towns have received little attention in the public administration literature to date, yet 1 in 10 Americans still lives in one, representing roughly 75 percent of all municipalities in the United States and some 33 million people. Small towns are characterized as dense, multiplex networks that lend unique dynamics to local politics. However, they face significant social, economic, technological, and demographic trends that compromise towns’ prevailing frame of reference, fracture their networks, and alter the traditional setting of small‐town governance. In the face of these issues, “thicker,” more active ways of engaging the public are needed to reknit community bonds and build civic capacity. Service learning for master of public administration students is proposed as a way to develop the emotional intelligence necessary to make sense of the complex social dynamics of small towns and to facilitate the hard work of building enabling relationships.     

Hispanics, Social Security, and Supplemental Security Income

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that Hispanics are the country's largest and fastest growing minority, representing about 14.4 percent of the population in 2005 (Census Bureau 2006b). By 2050, Hispanics will account for an estimated 24.4 percent of the population--or 1 in every 4 persons in the United States (Census Bureau 2004, Table 1 a). The Hispanic population tends to be younger than the overall population and currently represents a relatively small but growing fraction of the Social Security beneficiary population. The representation of Hispanics in the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program, however, approximates that of their representation in the overall population. This article compares the Hispanic population with the overall population along several dimensions, with a particular focus on the Social Security beneficiary and SSI recipient populations. Data are drawn mainly from the 2005 Public Use Microdata Sample of the American Community Survey (ACS PUMS), a relatively new data source with a rich set of economic and demographic variables. Fully implemented nationwide for the first time in 2005, the ACS became the largest household survey in the United States with a sample of almost 3 million addresses. The analysis using the ACS finds that the Hispanic population is significantly different from the general population, particularly in the areas of age distribution, educational attainment, and economic well-being. Compared with the general population, the Hispanic segment is younger and is characterized by lower levels of educational attainment and a higher rate of poverty. The Hispanic Social Security beneficiary population also differs significantly from the general beneficiary population in the same areas. In contrast, the Hispanic and general SSI populations are more comparable with regard to age and economic status and differ significantly only with regard to education.     

Current preferences and future demand for denser residential environments

Abstract

This article assesses the future demand for denser, more walkable residential environments in the United States as a whole. A review of survey evidence on preferences is coupled with demographic projections and other trends to construct a demand projection for the period 2000 to 2010 and compare it with 1990 to 2000.

It is possible to foresee a turnabout already under way. Households older than 45 show particular interest in more densely configured homes in more central locations. Passage of the massive baby boom generation into this age range focuses the growth of housing demand in sharp contrast to stagnant numbers at younger ages. Home buyers aged 45 and older who prefer denser, more compact housing alternatives will account for 31 percent of total homeowner growth during the 2000—10 period, double the same segment's market share in the 1990s.     

Expressions of Distrust: Third-Party Voting and Cynicism in Government

Voter distrust of the national government is an ongoing theoretical concern for scholars who study voting behavior in the United States. Previous research demonstrates that distrustful voters are less likely to vote for major party candidates than their more trusting counterparts. Using the American National Election Survey, we explore the relationship between citizen distrust and voting for three major third-party challengers (Wallace, Anderson, and Perot) and the use of trust levels as predictors of third- party voting. We find citizen trust levels are significant and strong predictors of third-party voting, independent of other common explanatory variables of vote choice. We also find trust levels are stable over time, and we find little evidence to support the argument that trust levels measure trust of incumbent political figures.     

Personal Income Tax Policy in China and the United States: A Comparative Analysis

Personal income tax has grown in importance in China's revenue system. Revenue from personal income tax was more than 2 trillion RMB yuan for the first half of 2008, a 27 percent increase from the previous year. And while similarities exist between China and the United States, distinctive features separate the two. Hua Xu of Auburn University at Montgomery and Huiyu Cui of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics underscore the need for equitable personal income tax reform in China. Using lessons from the United States, an agenda for future research on tax policy is outlined.     

From the ranch of the Tia Juana to Tijuana: a brief history of development and population on the northern border of Mexico

"Tijuana has been the most extraordinary example of the modern demographic history of the [Mexican] northern border. This article is an essay on the economic, social, and demographic development of this important urban center during this century. Its purpose is two fold. On the one hand, to understand Tijuana's general population change in light of a unique socioeconomic development in the country, which has been characterized by a close dependence on the United States as well as by the creation of several federal programs aimed [at integrating] the natural economies. On the other hand, to introduce the discussion of the Mexico-United States border region to the non-specialist in this field." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The new demographics of housing

Abstract

During the 1990s, minorities played an increasing role in population growth throughout the United States. Fueled by international migration and by high natural increase, Asians and Hispanics have joined with blacks to greatly elevate minority contributions to population and household growth at almost every geographic level. In addition to racial and ethnic turnover, households have been changing compositionally because of the aging of the population and because of the increase in the number of unmarried adults.

This article surveys these and other demographic changes and examines their implications for household growth and housing consumption. A clearer understanding of both white and minority roles in owner and renter housing trends is developed through tracking changing consumption patterns. Distinct patterns of cohort turnover have taken place in different vintage housing stock. These trends, which have led to large net gains for minorities, are expected to continue over the next decade and beyond.     

The rise of negative partisanship and the nationalization of U.S. elections in the 21st century

One of the most important developments affecting electoral competition in the United States has been the increasingly partisan behavior of the American electorate. Yet more voters than ever claim to be independents. We argue that the explanation for these seemingly contradictory trends is the rise of negative partisanship. Using data from the American National Election Studies, we show that as partisan identities have become more closely aligned with social, cultural and ideological divisions in American society, party supporters including leaning independents have developed increasingly negative feelings about the opposing party and its candidates. This has led to dramatic increases in party loyalty and straight-ticket voting, a steep decline in the advantage of incumbency and growing consistency between the results of presidential elections and the results of House, Senate and even state legislative elections. The rise of negative partisanship has had profound consequences for electoral competition, democratic representation and governance.     

Politics of Environmental Law: Political Ideology, Elitism or Urban-Rural Interests?

This paper examines a number of demographic aspects in congressional districts and states that played important roles in a series of Congressional votes on environmental issues in 2000. These characteristics include urbanization or population density, education, income, race, and employment. Our findings are mixed. While we find some evidence (at least in Senate votes) that population density is a positive predictor of “pro-environment” votes, we also find that things commensurate with the Environmental Kuznets Curve such as income, education, and lifestyle also play an important role in environmental voting.     

Issue cross-pressures and time of voting decision

Undecided voters are often regarded by political parties and candidates as the group that determines the outcome of an election. This paper discusses the concept and measurement of issue cross-pressures and explores to what extent they influence the time of voting decision in different political systems. Using survey data from national election studies in the Netherlands (1994–2012), Germany (1994–2013) and the United Kingdom (1992–2010), this study finds that issue cross-pressures do influence the time of voting decision regardless of voters' personal consideration set size, demographic background and political attribute. The effect of issue cross-pressures in the Netherlands is most pronounced. In the United Kingdom it is more moderate, while it is least prevalent in Germany. This partially demonstrates that party systems may constrain the role of issue cross-pressures.     

Environmental Policy As Learning: A New View of an Old Landscape

Environmental policy in the United States has always been characterized by high levels of political conflict. At the same time, however, policy makers have shown a capacity to learn from their own and others' experience. This article examines U.S. environmental policy since 1970 as a learning process and, more specifically, as an effort to develop three kinds of capacities for policy learning. The first decade and a half may be seen in terms of technical learning, characterized by a high degree of technical and legal proficiency, but also narrow problem definitions, institutional fragmentation, and adversarial relations among actors. In the 1980s, growing recognition of deficiencies in technical learning led to a search for new goals, strategies, and policy instruments, in what may be termed conceptual learning . By the early 1990s, policy makers also recognized a need for a new set of capacities at social learning, reflecting trends in European environmental policy, international interest in the concept of sustainability, and dissatisfaction with the U.S. experience. Social learning stresses communication and interaction among actors. Most industrial nations, including the United States, are working to develop and integrate capacities for all three kinds of learning. Efforts to integrate capacities for conceptual and social learning in the United States have had mixed success, however, because the institutional and legal framework for environmental policy still is founded on technical learning.     

The campaign dynamics of economic voting

This paper considers the relationship between election campaigns and the impact of economic evaluations on vote choice. The motivation is the standard expectation that the campaign generally serves to amplify the significance of economic considerations in the voter's calculus—to focus his/her attention on this “fundamental” element of the electoral decision. Drawing on survey data from ten national elections across four countries (Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States) and applying both parametric and semi-parametric statistical techniques, the paper finds no support for this proposition. The paper reflects on the significance of this conclusion for work on political learning during election campaigns, the literature on economic voting, and the study of electoral behaviour more generally.     

Correcting mistakes: cognitive dissonance and political attitudes in Sweden and the United States

Cognitive dissonance theory predicts that the act of voting makes people more positive toward the party or candidate they have voted for. Following Mullainathan and Washington (Am. Econ. J. Appl. Econ. 1:86–111, 2009), I test this prediction by using exogenous variation in turnout provided by the voting age restriction. I improve on previous studies by investigating political attitudes, measured just before elections, when they are highly predictive of voting. In contrast to earlier studies I find no effect of voting on political attitudes. This result holds for both Sweden and the United States.