Democracy or autocracy on the march? The colored revolutions as normal dynamics of patronal presidentialism

What impact have Eurasia's 2003–2005 “colored revolutions” had on the state of democracy and autocracy in the region? The logic of patronal presidentialism, a set of institutions common to post-Soviet countries, suggests that the revolutions are at root succession struggles more than democratic breakthroughs generated by civic activists and foreign democratizing activity. This helps explain why Georgia is experiencing a new retreat from ideal-type democracy while only Ukraine, whose revolution weakened the patronal presidency, has sustained high political contestation after its revolution. This means that autocratic leaders clamping down on non-governmental organizations, free media, and their foreign supporters may have learned the wrong lessons, perhaps making their countries more susceptible to violent revolution than they were before.     

Catching the ‘Shanghai Spirit’: How the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Promotes Authoritarian Norms in Central Asia

This article examines how the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) seeks to undermine democratisation in Central Asia. Prior studies of the interplay between international organisations and democracy have tended to examine only one half of this relationship: whether, how, and under what circumstances do international organisations promote democracy? However, the opposite has been largely ignored: how do international organisations sustain autocracy? Authoritarian governments are increasingly adopting policies aimed at preserving their political power and the SCO represents an additional strategy in this regard: utilising multilateral cooperation to defend themselves against regional or global democratic trends. As such, the ‘Shanghai Spirit’ may be a sign of things to come as autocratic leaders become more bold in their rejection of democratic norms.     

Responding to fiscal stress: Fiscal institutions and fiscal adjustment in four Brazilian states

Despite similar external shocks and pressures, Brazilian state leaders varied in the timing and the manner in which they adjusted to fiscal stress. Some state leaders rapidly switched to market-oriented strategies that cut public intervention in the economy. Other state leaders delayed adjustment, and when they finally put their accounts in order it was through market-governing strategies that preserved government activism. In part, these different fiscal policy regimes were products of the decision-making process in which chief executives operated. In states where budgeting obeyed a more open and democratic pattern, chief executives lacked autonomy and were forced to build coalitions to adjust. This meant that they adjusted more slowly and their adjustment strategies included appeals to broad interests, including those seeking protection from market pressures. In states where budgeting was more autocratic, chief executives could act quickly and without building a coalition. The current project uses structured comparison to contrast adjustment patterns in two democratic-budgeting states and two autocratic-budgeting states. The link between budget institutions and adjustment strategy appears to hold regardless of the socioeconomic condition of the states and the political hue of the state leaders.     

Political incrementalism: Political lessons from China's 20 years of reform

The recent crackdown by the Chinese Communist Party government on the efforts of Chinese dissidents to organise the China New Democratic Party has raised a serious question among scholars: why has the Chinese leadership been so reluctant to initiate democratic reforms? But an equally important question is: how has the Chinese political system been able to accommodate drastic socioeconomic changes? Although Chinese leaders from Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Zemin have strongly opposed the Western style of democracy, they have continuously adjusted the country's political system to prevent socioeconomic chaos from occuring, chaos that has troubled many former communist states and Third World countries. This paper explores China's political incrementalism and explains how incremental political reforms have worked. It argues that, although Chinese leaders have so far been successful in accommodating social changes through incrementalism, they are still uncertain about how to cope with increasing social demands for political reform and democratisation.     

Democracy and the politics of power alternation in Africa

Namibia's Nujoma, Zambia's Chiluba, Algeria's Bouteflika, Togo's Eyadema, Cameroon's Biya, Nigeria's Obasanjo, Niger's Tandja and Uganda's Museveni have all to varying degrees attempted to subvert the democratization process in their respective countries. These however are only a small selection of an increasingly similar pattern of action by incumbents in Africa. What is most troubling to democratic transitionists is a concerted effort by these leaders to curtail their fledgling democracies in the name of their continued ‘service’ to the people. This paper seeks to examine what has enabled an increasing number of African leaders to negate power alternation in favour of open-ended tenures otherwise ‘presidential careerism’. The article argues that while most of these states have been cited for embarking on some semblance of democratic rule, their rulers have utilized their weak democratic institutional structures, co-opted the elite and rallied the ‘mob’ to commit democracy ‘infanticide’.     

从“太阳花学运”看台湾民主

台湾自视为民主化的“灯塔”,但“太阳花学运”暴露出台湾民主存在诸多问题,引发广泛争议。争议中的共识是台湾民主出了问题,但也存在分歧,即究竟该对近三十年来的台湾民主化持什么态度,肯定、否定,抑或其他？分歧的产生与民主质量理论运用到台湾民主研究有关,民主质量的概念特性导致不同学者对其内涵的理解有所不同。有将其理解为狭义的“民主”的质量,包括竞争性选举、政党轮替等;也有将其理解为中义的“民主政治”的质量,包括法治、宪政、分权、人权等其他政治范畴;还有将其理解为广义的“民主政体”的质量,包括政治绩效、经济绩效、社会绩效等政治、经济和社会范畴。通过民主质量理论可知,台湾基本实现了巩固的民主,但尚未实现优质的民主。     

Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan as Post-Soviet Rentier States: Resource Incomes and Autocracy as a Double ‘Curse’in Post-Soviet Regimes

This article presents an analysis of two post-Soviet states, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, which can be identified as post-Soviet rentier states. Both countries are characterised economically by enormous national resources of gas and oil and low economic diversification as well as politically by strong autocratic presidentialism with neopatrimonial structures. These two factors, combined with further post-Soviet legacies such as a low level of political interest in the respective societies and a basically hierarchical orientation of the population, lead to a specific post-Soviet variety of rentierism. From a political science perspective, this article reveals the impact of resource policies on these comparably new political systems and concludes with a summary of core features of these post-Soviet rentier states.     

Analyzing the Experiences of Female Leaders in Civil Service in Kazakhstan: Trapped between Economic Pressure to Earn and Traditional Family Role Expectations

This paper analyzes the experiences of female leaders in civil service in a rapidly changing political, socio-cultural, and economic context of Kazakhstan. The research presents an analysis of the views of female managers on advantages and disadvantages of having women-leaders in civil service; on challenges and opportunities they are facing; on strategies they use to advance to and succeed in leadership positions. The important finding of this research is that female leaders in Kazakhstan are challenged with a clash of western, neo-liberal values and traditional expectations of women in the society. The analysis is based on primary data with women holding managerial positions in civil service.     

What autocracies say (and what citizens hear): proposing four mechanisms of autocratic legitimation

ABSTRACT

Autocratic governments make claims about why they are entitled to rule. Some autocracies are more talkative than others, but all regimes say something about why they deserve power. This article takes seriously these efforts by introducing and interrogating the concept of autocratic legitimation. After engaging in a definitional discussion, it traces the development of autocratic legitimation in modern political science by identifying major turning points, key concepts, and patterns of inquiry over time. Ultimately, this introductory article aims to not only argue that studying autocratic legitimation is important, but also to propose contexts, concepts, and distinctions for doing so productively. To this end, the article proposes four mechanisms of autocratic legitimation that can facilitate comparative analysis: indoctrination, passivity, performance, and democratic-procedural. Finally, the essay briefly introduces the five original articles that comprise the remainder of this special issue on autocratic legitimation. The article identifies avenues for further research and identifies how each article in the issue advances down productive pathways of inquiry.     

Dissecting the Attitudes of Political Science Students Towards Democracy and the 2004 Elections in Indonesia

Students’ attitudes towards Indonesia's transition from an authoritarian era to democracy varied from strong support for the democratic transition to nostalgia for the authoritarian era's strong leadership and economic prosperity. A sample of 317 students from three Indonesian universities was asked to rate the importance of political, economic, legal and social democratic principles. In addition to concerns about corruption, economic decline and security, students differed significantly centring on the importance of legitimate elections, representation, tolerance, accountability, human rights and gender equality. The majority of students were pessimistic about the elections; paradoxically some students optimistic about the general elections rated democratic principles the least important. After discussing the implications, political attitudes about democracy and elections were related to cognitive consistency and dissonance theory.     

Successful and failed democratic transitions from military rule in majority Muslim societies: the cases of Indonesia and Egypt

As majority Muslim societies with significant minorities and dominant militaries, Indonesia and Egypt experienced strikingly similar political trajectories between the early 1950s and the late 1990s. Yet, their respective democratic transitions have seen vastly different outcomes: while Indonesia solidified its democracy by extracting the military from politics, Egypt's democratic experiment ended after only two years with the return of the armed forces to the apex of government. This article highlights the reasons for this divergence. Contrary to existing scholarship that exclusively focuses on different geographical or economic circumstances, this contribution emphasises dissimilarities in the patterns of authoritarian rule, military organisation, intra-civilian conflict and international support. Conceptually, the discussion locates the Indonesian and Egyptian cases within the broader debate on civilian control in post-authoritarian states, arguing that this discourse needs to pay more attention to the creation of intra-civilian agreements on fundamental issues of governance as the best strategy to establish strong democratic oversight over the armed forces.     

Democracy and economic development

This discussion explains why democracy as is generally understood may not be suitable to meet the challenges of a developing economy and how democratic institutions generally fail to respond to the immediate demands of a population impatient to raise its level of living. It defines the terms economic development and democracy, reviews some theoretical models of democracy which have been proposed in economic theory, proposes an approach to the process of economic development, and considers problems of development. Economic development is a process which calls for huge investments in personnel and material. Such investment programs imply cuts in current consumption that would be painful at the low levels of living that exist in almost all developing societies. Governments need to resort to strong measures, and they must enforce them vigorously in order to marshal the surpluses required for investment. If such measures were put to a popular vote, they would certainly be defeated. Mainstream economic theory assumes the virtues of a market system and the decisions arrived at by the interaction of market forces. This is the economic equivalent of democracy. Yet, mainstream economic theory devotes little attention to the conditions under which a market system generates a just solution. The democratic developing countries have all inherited a class society, with a highly skewed distribution of income. The wealthy minority often seeks to preserve its privileged position and to enjoy the benefits of development. It even seeks the help of the judiciary to preserve the sanctity of private property and to assure that its patterns of conspicuous consumption can continue. This is done in the name of democratic rights. Many developing societies are burdened with outmoded traditions and value systems that are incompatible with the production relations of the new society they hope to achieve. The international exchange of resources is believed by some to be an attempt to control the pace and character of development so that the economic colonization will survive. To end such unfavorable conditions for development, 3rd world governments must demand greater sacrifices from their citizens, and this cannot be achieved by normal democratic means. Recent events in several developing nations illustrate this point.     

Moderate Islam and secularist opposition in Turkey: implications for the world,Muslims and secular democracy

Developing an argument based in theories of democratic consolidation and religious competition, and discussing the reasons for the secularist opposition to the government, this article analyses how government by a party rooted in moderate Islamism may affect Turkey's peculiar secular democracy, development and external relations and how Muslims in the world relate to modernization and democracy. Arguing that secularism in advanced democracies may be a product of democracy as much as it is the other way around, the article maintains that democratic consolidation may secure further consolidation of Turkish secularism and sustainable moderation of Turkish political Islam. Besides democratic Islamic – conservative actors and other factors, democratic consolidation requires strong democratic – secularist political parties so that secularist and moderate Islamist civilian actors check and balance each other. Otherwise, middle class value divisions and mistrust in areas like education and social regulation may jeopardise democratisation and economic modernisation and continuing reconciliation of Islamism with secular democracy and modernity.     

Is Mexican democracy consolidated?

In the wake of Mexico's electoral watershed of 2 July 2000, many scholars are willing to classify the country as an electoral democracy, yet debate persists over whether Mexican democracy is consolidated. This article seeks to advance this debate by clarifying the meaning of the term democratic ‘consolidation’ and how it should be operationalised. It argues that the concept should refer exclusively to a regime with a low probability of democratic breakdown. This avoids the conceptual confusion created by viewing consolidation as any change that improves the quality of democracy. In terms of measuring consolidation, it maintains the importance of placing greater weight on the proximate cause of regime instability, anti‐democratic behaviour, and discounting more remote causes of democratic breakdown, including economic performance, institution building, and attitudinal support. Based on this understanding, the article explains why Mexican democracy is fully consolidated.     

Lost in transition,found in recession? Satisfaction with democracy in Central Europe before and after economic crises

For decades, research on democracy has produced evidence that the peoples of countries in Central Europe are less satisfied with the way democracy works in their countries than people in Western Europe. Using the data from the European Social Survey (ESS) I explore, how satisfaction with the way democracy works (SWD) changed in these countries between 2004 and 2014 and test the impact of satisfaction with the present state of the economy and trust in parliament on SWD. Results of the analysis reveal that people in Central Europe are still less satisfied with the democratic performance on average than people in Western Europe, but their satisfaction is on the rise especially in countries where the economy performs well, economic performance brings better standard of living, and people share a sense of economic optimism. Results also suggest that in countries where economic optimism is low, political evaluations of “crises in democracy” may play a larger role in explaining satisfaction with democratic performance.     

Ideals Without Institutions: Understandings of Democracy and Democratic Participation Among Ecuadorian Youth

Many scholars of democratization have identified citizen support for democracy as an important determinant of democratic consolidation and deepening. Fewer have explored in depth what everyday citizens actually understand democracy to mean. If mass values shape democratic prospects, what specific notion of “democracy” are the masses inclined to support? This study addresses this question through focus groups conducted with 186 young people in Ecuador, a country that has epitomized challenges of democratic discontent and instability in Latin America. As compared to the dominant survey-based literature, interactive focus group conversations offer a more complex and complete picture of youth democratic perspectives, thus sharpening our analysis of the link between citizen attitudes and democratic performance. Findings have relevance for contemporary debates about “authoritarian drift” in the region, showing youth as strongly invested in democratic freedoms, though highly skeptical of the institutions that allegedly guarantee them. More broadly, the analysis provides a window into how youth conceive of and practice democracy in contexts of unstable democratization.     

Economic Evaluations,Economic Freedom,and Democratic Satisfaction in Africa

This article assesses the relationship between democratic satisfaction and micro and macroeconomic factors in Africa. Studies have shown that economic factors represent a cornerstone of the democratic process. However, research has rarely accounted for the effect of economic freedom on satisfaction with democracy, and its conditional role on the effect of citizens’ economic evaluations, particularly in the context of Africa where democracy is still developing. Using various rounds of the Afrobarometer, the article analyses the link between citizens’ evaluations of the economy and economic freedom with their satisfaction with democracy in 32 African countries between 2002 and 2013. First, the findings show that the openness of the economic context and positive economic evaluations are associated with an increase in democratic satisfaction. Second, economic freedom and economic evaluations appear to have a conditional association with democratic satisfaction. In fact, positive economic evaluations are a less important factor for democratic satisfaction in contexts that have a freer economy.     

Civil Society’s Claims to Political Representation in Brazil

Civil society is laying claim to political representation in contemporary democracies, destabilizing long-standing ideas about democratic legitimacy. The participatory governance structures that have emerged alongside classic institutions of representative democracy encompass not only direct citizen participation but also political representation by civil society actors. Using original data from São Paulo, Brazil, we show that most of civil society actors that work for the urban poor claim political representation of their “constituency.” Theirs is more often than not an “assumed representation,” we suggest, because our data show that most lack formal members and do not select leaders through elections. Civil society actors (in contrast to political parties and labor unions) lack historically settled and politically sanctioned mechanisms to authorize and hold accountable their representation. This new layer of political representatives therefore faces a historic challenge—constructing novel notions of democratic legitimacy that can support their forms of representation. We examine what new notions of representations are emerging and trace the historic roots of the most widespread and promising that focus on remedying inequality in access to the state.     

Democratic ‘freedom’ in Myanmar

In Robert Dahl’s work on ‘polyarchy’, democratic ‘freedom’ is liberty from the abuses of the state and freedom for citizens to formulate and express their preferences. This meaning of freedom is central to contemporary scholarship on democratization. At the same time, freedom has also been a key concept for activists and leaders involved in Myanmar’s long democratic struggles. Yet, when freedom is referred to by Burmese activists and democratic leaders, does this entail support for liberty or freedom of the type outlined by Dahl? This article argues that Berlin’s distinction between ‘negative’ and ‘positive’ freedoms can help to clarify overlaps and divergence in notions of freedom. When exploring ‘negative’ democratic freedoms, such as freedom from government restrictions on speech or association, there is considerable overlap between the visions of Burmese activists and democratic leaders and the key elements of Dahl’s democratic freedom. In considering ‘positive’ freedoms, however, there is more divergence. Amongst activists and democratic leaders in Myanmar, there is a focus not on freedom as the exercising of own entitlements but rather on freedom for moral conduct; freedom to bear to the responsibilities and discipline of democracy.     

Democracy promotion and ODA: a comparative analysis

Scholars of democracy promotion foreign aid often claim it has substantially increased, yet they shy away from explaining by how much, nor investigate comparative trends in giving. This paper attempts to fill this void by addressing the following: (1) Has democracy promotion aid increased since the end of the Cold War? (2) Has the ‘assumed’ trend of increasing aid persevered through the difficulties encountered in democratizing Iraq? (3) Did aid increase from states that supported the invasion of Iraq compared to states that did not? The author's analysis purports that the answer is yes to the first two, yet it is harder to draw conclusions regarding Iraq. Another finding, contrary to claims in the scholarly literature, in terms of percentage and overall spending, the USA gives more democracy promotion aid than the EU. The author hopes this work stimulates research into the role of democracy promotion in the Arab Spring to consider historical trends in giving.