Budget Control in Virginia Public School Districts

This article examines the selection and use of a budget approval technique. Specifically, two research questions are addressed: (1) Does the use of a particular budget approval method by a governmental body impact the execution of the budget? (2) What characteristics of a local government are associated with its decision to use a particular budget approval method? Both research questions are addressed by analyzing data from public school systems in the Commonwealth of Virginia, specifically, whether using categorical budget approval differs in the accuracy of budgeting versus using a lump-sum approval method. Characteristics of Virginia school districts are also analyzed according to whether any of them are likely to be associated with school districts using a particular approval method. The remainder of this article is organized as follows: the next section describes the role of budgeting control in schools; subsequent sections review Virginia school district budgeting practices, develop the empirical model used to test the hypotheses, describe the sample, analyze the results of empirical tests and discuss implications of the findings.     

“Rally Round the Flag” Events for Presidential Approval Research

Since Mueller's [Mueller, J., 1970. Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson. The American Political Science Review 64 (1), 18–34.] pioneering study, students of presidential approval ratings have agreed that major events affect these ratings. Despite this consensus, there is wide divergence in the ways that scholars have selected events for inclusion in models of approval ratings. This inconsistency inhibits direct comparisons across studies and raises the possibility that results are contingent on those selection criteria. Thus, what we have learned about the impact of various factors that may affect approval may depend on the details of selection criteria. Practically, scholars analyzing presidential approval ratings for any theoretical purpose must construct a list of events themselves, which takes considerable time. We propose a set of selection criteria and construct a list of events from 1953 to 2006 that scholars can employ. We also demonstrate that the list of events generates empirical results that comport with extant findings in the presidential approval literature.     

Strong feelings: Emotional responses to presidents

Although rational models of political behavior prevail in research on public approval of presidents, an emotions model is proposed to consider whether it actually predicts approval as well as, if not better than, the existing rational models. The emotions model is tested for Presidents Carter and Reagan using the American National Election Studies from 1980 to 1986. The model is compared with two rational models: one, an events and conditions model, suggests that people's prospective and retrospective views of their own financial circumstances and the economy dictate their approval of presidential performance; a second, an issue proximity model, proposes that the closeness (or distance) people perceive between their views on key issues and those of the president affects their approval of the president's job. Across numerous tests, the results indicate that the emotions model outperforms either of the rational models. In addition, a multivariate analysis combining rational and emotional indicators shows the strength of the emotions variables. The study concludes that political science research must more fully consider rational and emotional explanations of political behavior.     

Congressional responsiveness to presidential popularity: The electoral context

A number of recent studies have reported that the influence of the president's public approval rating on congressional support is not substantial. We hypothesize that this unexpected finding might be the result of the inappropriate application of an approval-driven model of legislative voting to the entire Congress. Specifically, we argue that members from certain kinds of electoral contexts—constituencies where the president's, or their own, electoral standing is in doubt—should be especially likely to vary their support for the president with changes in his approval rating. Although the patterns of presidential support scores between 1977 and 1991 do not confirm our specific hypotheses, they do suggest that the electoral context from which a legislator emerges does shape his or her responsiveness to changes in national presidential approval.     

The impact of agency failure on executive approval: Evidence from the Bush and Obama presidencies

Over the past few decades, scholars have developed a rich research record on the causes and consequences of low presidential approval ratings. While this literature has provided valuable insight on presidential approval, little attention is paid to how agency failures also impact approval. In this article, I argue this understudied topic can provide additional leverage to help understand when public trust in the president is eroded. Using Markov Regime switching models of weekly approval ratings for the Bush and Obama presidencies, I demonstrate approval falls when agency failures make national headlines. In addition, findings also show that the impact of these events hinge on the number of failures and not the magnitude of any one breakdown in particular.     

The stock market and U.S. presidential approval

Since the 1970s research has demonstrated a strong relationship between national economic performance and presidential approval. Traditionally, these popularity models rely on macroeconomic conditions; however, other economic performance measures may more fully capture the direction of the economy. One such measure, the stock market index, captures elements of national and household economic well-being. Therefore, market performance should impact presidential ratings. Our presidential approval model, based on quarterly data covering 1960–2011, demonstrates that approval is highly sensitive to the stock market's acceleration or deceleration, even with strong controls in the model for the other economic and political determinants of popularity. A rapid fall in the stock market index reduces president approval, while a sharp acceleration in the index growth boosts U.S. presidential approval.     

Policy popularity: The Arizona immigration law

As a maker of policy, a president or a governor invites public approval or disapproval for policy decisions. Public reaction is likely to occur for issues of great salience and clear candidate positions. We focus on immigration policy. Illegal immigration has become a hot issue in recent years, especially in Arizona. The state's governor took a clear stance in 2010 by signing a law that gives police sweeping powers to deal with illegal immigration (Arizona SB 1070). Using an aggregate time-series model, we find that this action affected gubernatorial approval ratings. Indeed the gain in approval proved enduring enough to turn a losing race for re-election into a victory for Governor Brewer. Using individual-level survey data, we find that presidential approval also was affected by reactions to the Arizona Law among residents of the state. When elected officials take clear stances on a salient issue - Governor Brewer for, President Obama against the law-policy moves approval.     

中国行政审批制度的结构与历史变迁——基于历史制度主义的分析范式

用历史制度主义的分析范式,检视中国行政审批制度的结构与历史变迁,是解读该项制度变迁全貌的一个新的视角.国家宏大制度背景决定行政审批制度的选择,国家制度背景的变迁也导致行政审批制度的不断变更与革新;各种相关政治变量,包括经济水平、利益关系以及意识形态等因素与行政审批制度之间存在一种序列结构,行政审批制度与其它政府政策或制度之间也存在类似的序列结构,这种政治变量序列结构使行政审批制度处于一个制度矩阵当中,影响并制约着行政审批制度的安排;制度与制度制定及执行者之行为的互动模式则推动行政审批制度的变迁.行政审批制度变迁具有路径依赖性,也存在"历史否决点",而制度激励和制度创新是打破"历史否决点",提升制度绩效的必要手段.为此,行政审批制度的进一步变迁需要重塑政府理念,打造治理型政府,并转变政府职能,推进行政体制改革.而且,行政审批制度的进一步变迁必须契合社会主义市场经济体制的客观需要,适应加入WTO新形势的迫切要求.     

Efficacy,power and equity under approval voting

Approval voting allows each voter to vote for as many candidates as he wishes in a multicandidate election. Previous studies show that approval voting compares favorably with other practicable election systems. The present study examines the extent to which votes for different numbers of candidates can affect the outcome. It also considers generic powers of voters and the extent to which approval voting treats voters equitably. If there are three candidates, votes for one or two candidates are equally efficacious in large electorates. For four or more candidates, votes for about half the candidates are most efficacious. Although inequities among voters can arise under approval voting, the common plurality voting system is considerably less equitable than approval voting.     

Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence?

Previous research has established that taxation may impose significant electoral costs on politicians. This literature, however, focuses exclusively on the effect of the tax burden. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that both the level of the tax burden and the change in the tax structure affect the US president’s approval ratings (over the 1959–2006 period). Our results support this proposition. Specifically, we find a negative impact from the magnitudes of the tax burden and the deficit as well as from changes in the tax structure on presidential approval ratings.     

我国行政审批范围的规范化

加入WTO，我国政府必须进行行政审批制度改革，以规范市场准入，优化投资环境。行政审批范围的设定是确定行政审批其他相关内容的基础。本文分析了我国行政审批范围设定存在的问题及其原因，探讨我国行政审批范围设定的原则，从而提出规范行政审批范围的对策。     

Dead Heat: The 2006 Public Choice Society Election

In 2006, the Public Choice Society chose a new president using approval voting. There were five candidates, and the election was extremely close. We indicate the sources of support of the different candidates, based in part on spectral analysis, by voters who cast between one and five votes. Using preference information that was also gathered, we show that two candidates different from the approval voting winner, including the apparent Condorcet winner, might have won under different voting systems. Because most voters did not indicate their complete preference rankings, however, these differences are hardly robust, especially since the outcome was essentially a dead heat.     

Presidential elections in Finland: A plea for approval voting

The Finnish President is elected by an indirect method-the people elect special electors who carry out the final election. A proposal for a reform aiming at direct elections is, however, presently being considered. This paper agrees with this proposal and suggests that approval voting is a proper method for direct elections. Several properties of the approval voting system are discussed and the method is demonstrated to be superior to the plurality runoff method in presidential elections. It is argued that the approval voting system chooses a candidate who has overall support in the electorate and that the system therefore promotes the position of the President as a neutral and moderating political force.     

批捕权配置问题研究

随着我国司法改革的逐步深入,审查批捕权的归属成为争论的焦点,究其原因主要是对批捕权性质的认识不同。对批捕权归属的分析应在诉讼结构完善的基础上进行,并在此前提下,针对我国批捕权存在的问题,提出相应的配置思路。     

Government approval in Italy: Political cycle,economic expectations and TV coverage

This paper analyses government approval in Italy – which has become a key aspect for electoral support in the new party system of the Second Republic – exploring the influence that TV coverage exerts on approval net of traditional accounts of government support. Relying on both aggregate time series and pooled individual-level surveys analyses, it is shown that communication has a sizable impact on government approval. The popularity of Centre-Left and Centre-Right governments is affected evenly by the economy but differently by the news coverage of their activity. People with lower political interest are the most reactive to news coverage of government performance.     

The Dynamics of Partisan Conflict on Congressional Approval

Partisan divisions in American politics have been increasing since the 1970s following a period where scholars thought parties were in decline. This polarization is observed most frequently within the debates and deliberation across issues within Congress. Given that most studies of public opinion place the behavior of elites at the center of public attitudes, surprisingly little research examines the effect of partisan conflict on the mass public. This research examines quarterly congressional approval data from 1974 to 2000 to determine the consequences, if any, of party conflict on the dynamics of congressional approval. The findings indicate that over-time changes in partisan conflict within Congress have a direct and lasting effect on how citizens think about Congress.     

A stochastic model of the 2007 Russian Duma election

In this paper we consider the nature of local Nash equilibrium (LNE) for a model of the 2007 Duma election in Russia, using estimates of valence obtained from sociodemographic variables. We then extend this sociodemographic valence model by including institutional valences, the approval by voters of the various institutions, including the President, the Prime Minister, the State Duma and the Federation Council. We show by simulation that the vote maximizing LNE of this general stochastic model were not at the electoral origin. The dominant feature of the election was the influence of approval or disapproval of President Putin on each voter’s political choice.     

Guns 'N jobs: The FDR legacy

The intrusion of war is likely to alter the standard economic voting calculus. A wartime economy is not expected to deliver the same political benefits or costs, in terms of presidential approval or votes in an election, as does a peacetime economy. The Roosevelt presidency presents a perfect target to examine economic voting in wartime. Using monthly polling data on presidential approval from late 1937 to 1945, we demonstrate that the American public suspended standard economic-voting logic during World War II. One explanation for this suspension is the enormous size of U.S. military spending. Using data on government spending from 1929 to 1950, we show that military spending had a huge effect on unemployment while the effect of non-military spending proves negligible and non-significant. It was military spending triggered by war, not the New Deal, that vanquished the Great Depression.     

Approval and plurality voting with uncertainty: Info-gap analysis of robustness

Voting algorithms are used to choose candidates by an electorate. However, voter participation is variable and uncertain, and projections from polls or past elections are uncertain because voter preferences may change. Furthermore, electoral victory margins are often slim. Variable voter participation or preferences, and slim margins of decision, have implications for choosing a voting algorithm. We focus on approval voting (AV) and compare it to plurality voting (PV), regarding their robustness to uncertainty in voting outcomes. We ask: by how much can voting outcomes change without altering the election outcomes? We see fairly consistent empirical differences between AV and PV. In single-winner elections, PV tends to be more robust to vote uncertainty than AV in races with large victory margins, while AV tends to be more robust at low victory margins. Two conflicting concepts—approval flattening and approval magnification—explain this tendency for reversal of robust dominance between PV and AV. We also examine the robustness to vote uncertainty of PV in elections for proportional representation of parties.

     

Eliciting preferences for land use alternatives: A structured value referendum with approval voting

This article discusses an experimental application of the Structured Value Referendum (SVR) with approval voting. The decision context is selecting the best land use for an undeveloped area of publicly owned suburban land in Richmond, British Columbia. Subjects were a random sample of 200 registered voters, selected in a "mall‐intercept" format. Subjects reviewed relevant information, completed a ballot, and then completed a survey about their satisfaction with the approval voting format. The results are of substantive interest for the land use decision, and show a high preference for an approval voting format. The results show ease in understanding the task and information provided, as well as a belief that this approach could be useful in guiding public policy. © 1999 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.