A Longitudinal Study on Human Outdoor Decomposition in Central Texas

The development of a methodology that estimates the postmortem interval (PMI) from stages of decomposition is a goal for which forensic practitioners strive. A proposed equation (Megyesi et al. 2005) that utilizes total body score (TBS) and accumulated degree days (ADD) was tested using longitudinal data collected from human remains donated to the Forensic Anthropology Research Facility (FARF) at Texas State University‐San Marcos. Exact binomial tests examined the rate of the equation to successfully predict ADD. Statistically significant differences were found between ADD estimated by the equation and the observed value for decomposition stage. Differences remained significant after carnivore scavenged donations were removed from analysis. Low success rates for the equation to predict ADD from TBS and the wide standard errors demonstrate the need to re‐evaluate the use of this equation and methodology for PMI estimation in different environments; rather, multivariate methods and equations should be derived that are environmentally specific.     

Tripartite decomposition of labor productivity growth,FDI and human development: evidence from transition economies

This study investigates the relative contribution of technological change, technological catch-up and capital deepening as drivers of labor productivity growth in 14 transition economies during the period 2000–2012. In addition, the study extends the usual decomposition of labor productivity growth by encompassing the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on labor productivity growth in transition economies. To illustrate the relative contribution of FDI as a driver of labor productivity growth, we present a simple theoretical model that augments Kohli [Labour productivity vs. total factor productivity. IFC Bulletin 20 (April), Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics, International Statistical Institute, 2005] and Grosskopf et al. (Aggregation, efficiency, and measurement, Springer, New York, pp 97–116, 2007) decomposition of the labor productivity. The insights derived in this model provide an underpinning to the empirical analysis in this study. Using Blundell–Bond dynamic panel General Method of Moments estimators, the main finding of dynamic panel data regressions shows that technological catch-up, technological change, and human development level, trade and demographic of population ageing are the main factors that affect labor productivity growth in transition countries. Furthermore, the findings of dynamic panel data regressions show insignificant positive impact of FDI on productivity growth in transition economies. One explanation is that the 14 transition economies that are included in this study do not reach a minimum human development threshold level.     

A Typology of Tax Compliance in Developing Economies: Empirical Evidence from China's Shoe Industry

Drawing on fieldwork investigations of shoe manufacturers in southeastern China, this article provides empirical evidence for understanding these businesses’ taxpaying practices. We find that since business taxpayers largely regard tax law as illegitimate, instrumental considerations dominate these taxpayers’ decisions to pay or not pay taxes. We then incorporate “structural opportunities for evasion” and “perceived costs of evasion” to develop a two‐by‐two matrix to understand the following types of behavior: aggressive evasion, obliged compliance, strategic compliance, and reciprocal compliance. We argue that this matrix explains why value added tax fraud is widespread in China while voluntary compliance is rare. It also helps to illuminate compliance more generally in developing economies.     

Exploring the Impact of Agricultural Price and Trade Policy Reform under Transition in Albania

Agricultural policy decision making in economies undergoing transition to market is in need of empirical tools for assessing the impact of alternative policy options. The econometric means available for such exercise, however, are limited for lack of data and structural breaks in economic behaviour. Synthetic, partial equilibrium, multi-market models offer a potential alternative. Such models have been used extensively, even in advanced economies, to offer valuable insights on the impact of alternative policy options. This paper shows the use of such a partial equilibrium, multi-market, synthetic-type model as a tool for agricultural policy analysis in a country in transition. The model is applied for Albania, a predominantly agricultural country that, after a period of centralism and autarky, aims to re-join the international economic system. The model, albeit its many limitations, offers some useful insights on the impact of alternative options available for agricultural price and trade policy.     

Prisons and Crime, Backwards in High Heels

Objectives

Prisons reduce crime rates, but crime increases prison populations. OLS estimates of the effects of prisons on crime combine the two effects and are biased toward zero. The standard solution—to identify the crime equation by finding instruments for prison—is suspect, because most variables that predict prison populations can be expected to affect crime, as well. An alternative is to identify the prison equation by finding instruments for crime, allowing an unbiased estimate of the effect of crime on prisons. Because the two coefficients in a simultaneous system are related through simple algebra, we can then work backward to obtain an unbiased estimate of the effect of prisons on crime.

Methods

Potential instruments for crime are tested and used to identify the prison equation for the 50 U.S. states for the period 1978–2009. The effect of prisons on crime consistent with this relationship is obtained through algebra; standard errors are obtained through Monte Carlo simulation.

Results

Resulting estimates of the effect of prisons on crime are around ?0.25 ± 0.15. This is larger than biased OLS estimates, but similar in size to previous estimates based on standard instruments.

Conclusions

When estimating the effect of a public policy response on a public problem, it may be more productive to find instruments for the problem and work backward than to find instruments for the response and work forward.     

New Labour’s communitarianism,supporting families and the ‘rationality mistake’: Part II

In Part I of this study, we argued that New Labour is keen to use legislation to promote what it sees as desirable family forms and to discourage other, less-favoured family practices. The codification of this approach in the 1998 Green Paper Supporting Families - and, in particular, the 'New Deal for Lone Parents' - was compared with recent empirical research on how people make decisions about their moral economies. We concluded that the government's approach is subject to a 'rationality mistake' - people do not make decisions in the way the government assumes and hence legislation can be inefficient or even oppressive. Here, we examine this contention further, this time focusing on chapter 4 of the Green Paper, indicatively entitled 'Strengthening marriage'. Using recent empirical research on mothers' views on marriage and cohabitation, we find further evidence of the 'rationality mistake', where the government has misunderstood the ways in which people make decisions about partnering and hence misplaces the role of family law. We conclude that supportive and flexible legislative frameworks are needed that recognize the varying ways in which people take moral economic decisions.     

Social-cognitive skills training with a sexually abused and abusive child psychiatric inpatient: Training,generalization, and follow-up

This paper describes the clinical application of a social-cognitive skills training program for an 11 1/2-year-old child psychiatric inpatient with a history of sexual abuse and neglect who was referred for hospitalization after sexually molesting a neighborhood girl. The content and procedures of the program are outlined in detail to facilitate replication. Results indicated that improvements were found on analogue role-play scenarios administered during training-which then generalized to several specific and general measures of social adjustment/competence on the inpatient unit. A 1-year follow-up assessment revealed the maintenance of these therapeutic gains. The implications of this therapeutic approach with maltreated children and need for more rigorous empirical outcome studies are discussed.     

Cutoff Scores for the Morel Emotional Numbing Test for PTSD: Considerations for Use in VA Mental Health Examinations

The use of cutoff scores on symptom validity measures has been applied to determine the authenticity of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs compensation and pension examinations. This approach is controversial due to variations in the interpretation and application of cutoff scores from symptom validity testing. In response to the proposal that the cutoff score on the Morel Emotional Numbing Test for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (MENT) be increased, the diagnostic accuracy of the standard cutting score for identifying simulated symptoms of PTSD was compared to the proposed alternate cutoff score. The results of decision matrix tables (true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative) comparing the sensitivity and specificity and deriving confidence intervals for the standard cutoff score and proposed alternate cutoff score are presented. In addition, analyses using binomial probability theory to determine whether the outcome of increasing the cutoff score on the MENT meets reasonable standards for types I and II errors are presented.     

International integration and the determinants of regional development in China

Concerns about the duration of China??s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China??s high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced a more moderate development. To obtain broad continuos growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (1) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (2) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical model of regional development. Positive and significant coefficients for FDI and trade support the importance of international integration and technology imitation. A negative and significant lagged GDP per capita indicates a catching up, non steady state process across China??s provinces. Highly significant human and real capital identifies the importance of these domestic growth restricting factors. However, other potentially important factors like labor or government expenditures are (surprisingly) insignificant or even negative. Extending the model using an unbalanced panel leads to a positive effect of the quality of governance and institutions on development.     

Impact of Currency Boards on Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European Countries

The paper focuses on the impact of currency boards on fiscal policy in transition economies. Starting with an overview of theoretical and empirical studies in the related area, it tests for the interaction between monetary policy regimes and fiscal policy in Central and Eastern European countries who aim for the membership in the European Union. The theoretical background of this study lies in the model of Tornell and Velasco (1998). They demonstrate that fiscal transfers do not ultimately depend on the chosen exchange rate and monetary policy, but only on the world's real rate of interest and the rate of time preference of the fiscal authority. A sample of 10 accession candidates constitutes a group of countries which go through similar macroeconomic stabilisation processes but have chosen different nominal anchors. The paper investigates whether there are any systematic differences between those countries with a currency board arrangement and those without. The empirical evidence suggests that currency boards enhance fiscal discipline in Central and Eastern European countries.     

The price-wage inflationary spiral in Poland

In this paper the problem of price-wage relationship modelling in the case of a mixed economy is addressed. The empirical investigation was based on Polish annual data for the period of a centrally planned system (1964–1989) and on quarterly data for the period of transition towards a market economy (1990.1–1990.3). The traditional approach proved to be inappropriate because of the variables' nonstationarity. Identification of long-run behaviour was attempted by applying the two-step Engle-Granger's, or alternatively, Johansen's maximum likelihood (ML) procedures. The ML estimator provided better estimates of cointegration vectors and, even more important, allowed as many as three to be found. The main conclusion which can be drawn from the empirical findings is that three variables: price index, average wages and labour productivity, form a multi-dimensional equilibrium space. This property of the described phenomena needs to be taken into serious account when building macroeconometric models explaining the behaviour of the Polish economy. The existence of these three cointegration vectors is troublesome because of unusual problems of interpretation. However, if it is not as a result of misspecification and/or small sample bias, it proves that much remains to be learned about the price-wage mechanisms functioning in economies having a mixed character.     

我国国有商业银行表外业务发展的新思考——基于范围经济的分析框架

范围经济是对经济组织业务多元化选择与判断的衡量标准.商业银行作为金融企业,其范围经济的大小决定了它实行多元化经营以节约成本、提高效益的空间与机会.对我国国有商业银行表外业务范围经济的实证结果表明,我国四大国有商业银行在近年来大多数年份存在较为明显的范围经济,表外业务的开展对传统业务具有巨大的促进作用,有利于银行总体收入的增长.因此,国有商业银行应该大力开展表外业务,以充分发挥其范围经济的最大效益.     

The benefit and cost of prison in the UK. The results of a model of lifetime re-offending

With prisons in the UK reaching full capacity, and with similar trends in other European countries and the USA, there is much political debate about the efficacy of prison and community sentences. This paper aims to inform this debate by testing the hypothesis that prisons are an effective and efficient way of reducing re-offending. A rapid review of effectiveness studies was performed to determine the relative impact of prison and community sentences on re-offending. An economic analysis was undertaken to transform the estimates of effect into estimates of the economic efficiency of alternative sentencing options in the context of the UK. When compared with standard prison sentences, a number of community-based interventions and enhancements of standard prison sentences were found to save money, both for the public sector and for society more broadly. Diverting adult offenders from standard prison sentences to alternative interventions saves the UK public sector between ￡19,000 and ￡88,000 per offender. When victim costs are considered, diverting offenders from standard prison sentences saves UK society between ￡17,500 and ￡203,000 per offender. It was concluded that standard prison sentences are not an economically efficient means for reducing re-offending.

Estimation of output loss from allocative inefficiency: A comparison of the Soviet Union and the U.S.

This paper presents two different estimates of the output loss resulting from allocative inefficiency in the Soviet Union and the United States. Surprisingly, the evidence from our examination of nine industrial sectors during the period 1960–1984 shows only small differences in measured allocative inefficiency between the United States and Soviet economies. Instead of immediately rejecting this result as the product of unreliable data and insurmountable methodological difficulties, we present a plausible explanation for the unexpectedly strong performance of Soviet-type economies in the allocation of labor and capital across sectors. If true, the finding of relatively low levels of resource misallocation implies that the source of poor economic performance in Soviet-type economies must be due to technical inefficiency, slow technological change, and/or production of the wrong mix of outputs.     

The challenge of economic integration in the MENA region: from GAFTA and EU-MFTA to small scale Arab Unions

After a 30 years period of trials and errors in creating an Arab economic space for just independent countries and an insufficient implementation of the Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Agreement (EU-MFTA), the economies of the MENA region have recently relied back on sub-regional trading blocks (Arab Unions) to succeed in opening and developing their economies. From a theoretical point of view this tendency is rising a debate on the possibility, for the Arab countries, to enjoy the dynamic effects that emerge from the internationalization process (like an increasing rate of investment, a higher intra-industry trade and reduced balance of payments distortions), given the structure and the performance of their economies. The aim of the paper is to present the contemporary trends of the economic integration process among the countries of the MENA Region in connection with the wider perspective adopted in the debate on this topic. A closer look at the intra-Arab flows of goods and services will thus enable us to appraise some facts concerning the process of internationalization of MENA economies, revealing an unexpected dynamism in the lights of “deep integration” perspective. On this base an account of the renewed bilateralism in economic relations will be provided.     

Contrasting simulated and empirical experiments in crime prevention

This paper argues that simulated experiments of crime prevention interventions are an important class of research methods that compare favorably with empirical experiments. It draws on Popper’s demarcation between science and non-science (Conjectures and refutations: the growth of scientific knowledge. Routledge, London, 1992) and Epstein’s principle of generative explanation (Generative social science: studies in agent-based computational modeling. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2006) to show how simulated experiments can falsify theory. The paper compares simulated and empirical experiments and shows that simulations have strengths that empirical methods lack, but they also have important relative weaknesses. We identify three threats to internal validity and two forms of external validity peculiar to simulated experiments. The paper also looks at the problem of validating simulations with crime data and suggests that simulations need to mimic the error production processes involved in the creation of empirical data. It concludes by listing ways simulations can be used to improve empirical experiments and discussing the differing operating assumption of empirical and simulation experimentalists.

Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares.     

The analysis of case-control studies in criminology

Case-control designs, in which subjects are selected conditionally on the value of a dependent variable, are well suited for research in criminology. For many research issues, case-control studies should be preferred over cohort studies because they can provide estimates of the same parameters, with equal standard errors, for less cost. This paper describes the case-control design and some of the problems that arise in interpreting them. An approach to analysis and interpretation that has developed in epidemiology is presented.     

Technology Transfer: An Opportunity for Small Open Economies

In this paper, crucial aspects of technology transfer are considered from the perspective of a small open economy with a predominantly small and medium-sized enterprise structure. The paper uses empirical data from an investigation which prepared the ground for developing a model for the active support of technology transfer in Austria. Experience from technology transfer strategies in other European countries was introduced and integrated in the formulation of policy proposals. These proposals are valid for a broad range of different technologies, while taking into account the possibilities and limitations of technology transfer policy in small open economies.