TRAJECTORIES OF CRIME AT PLACES: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF STREET SEGMENTS IN THE CITY OF SEATTLE*

Studies of crime at micro places have generally relied on cross‐sectional data and reported the distributions of crime statistics over short periods of time. In this paper we use official crime data to examine the distribution of crime at street segments in Seattle, Washington, over a 14‐year period. We go beyond prior research in two ways. First, we view crime trends at places over a much longer period than other studies that have examined micro places. Second, we use group‐based trajectory analysis to uncover distinctive developmental trends in our data. Our findings support the view that micro places generally have stable concentrations of crime events over time. However, we also find that a relatively small proportion of places belong to groups with steeply rising or declining crime trajectories and that these places are primarily responsible for overall city trends in crime. These findings are particularly important given the more general decline in crime rates observed in Seattle and many other American cities in the 1990s. Our study suggests that the crime drop can be understood not as a general process that occurred across the city landscape but one that was generated in a relatively small group of micro places with strong declining crime trajectories over time.     

URBANNESS AND UNCONVENTIONAL BEHAVIOR: A PARTIAL TEST OF CLAUDE FISCHER'S SUBCULTURAL THEORY

Eleven hypotheses concerning individual behavior are derived from Claude Fischer's ecological subcultural theory linking size-of-place, subcultural development, and unconventional behavior. Data from a three-state survey are used to test the derived hypotheses. The findings are mixed, which suggests the theory has merit but that it is too general and should be refined to specify the conditions under which various effects are most likely. The results suggest that a refinement must confront the following realities: (1) the size of the population is not necessarily predictive of high probabilities of all kinds of deviance, (2) all deviance is not subculturally linked, and (3) subcultures and subcultural involvement are not necessarily concentrated in larger places. Nevertheless, (4) when subcultural involvement is strong, it exercises great influence on behavior. Approaches for refining the theory are suggested.     

Can Childhood Factors Predict Workplace Deviance?

Compared to the more common focus on street crime, empirical research on workplace deviance has been hampered by highly select samples, cross-sectional research designs, and limited inclusion of relevant predictor variables that bear on important theoretical debates. A key debate concerns the extent to which childhood conduct-problem trajectories influence crime over the life-course, including adults' workplace crime, whether childhood low self-control is a more important determinant than trajectories, and/or whether each or both of these childhood factors relate to later criminal activity. This paper provides evidence on this debate by examining two types of workplace deviance: production and property deviance separately for males and females. We use data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study, a birth cohort followed into adulthood, to examine how childhood factors (conduct-problem trajectories and low self-control) and then adult job characteristics predict workplace deviance at age 32. Analyses revealed that none of the childhood factors matter for predicting female deviance in the workplace but that conduct-problem trajectories did account for male workplace deviance.     

NEGOTIATING ORDER IN PATROL WORK: AN ECOLOGICAL THEORY OF POLICE RESPONSE TO DEVIANCE*

The recent renaissance of ecological research in criminology has brought with it a renewed interest in the relationship between crime and social control in local communities. While several researchers have noted that the police are a critical part of the community crime-control puzzle, there is very little research and no theory that addresses variation in police behavior across physical space. In an attempt to further understand police operations in local communities, this article offers a theory that explains how levels of crime and other forms of social deviance in communities affect police action. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of the theory for understanding how police behavior varies across physical space and how crime patterns develop and are sustained in local communities.     

IS DIFFERENTIAL ASSOCIATION/SOCIAL LEARNING CULTURAL DEVIANCE THEORY?*

Sutherland's differential association theory has long been criticized as a “cultural deviance” theory, and the critics have continued to apply this same designation to the theory's social-learning reformulation by Akers. According to this critique, differential association/social learning theory rests on the assumption that socialization is completely successful and that cultural variability is unlimited, cannot explain individual differences in deviance within the same group and applies only to group differences, has no way of explaining violation of norms to which the individual subscribes, and proposes culture as the single cause of crime. This article examines the basis and validity of this cultural deviance label. I conclude that the usual attribution of cultural deviance assumptions and explanations to differential association/ social learning theory is based on misinterpretations. Then, I offer a clarification of how cultural elements are incorporated into the theory.     

HOT SPOTS OF PREDATORY CRIME: ROUTINE ACTIVITIES AND THE CRIMINOLOGY OF PLACE*

A leading sociological theory of crime is the “routine activities” approach (Cohen and Felson, 1979). The premise of this ecological theory is that criminal events result from likely offenders, suitable targets, and the absence of capable guardians against crime converging nonrandomly in time and space. Yet prior research has been unable to employ spatial data, relying instead on individual- and household-level data, to test that basic premise. This analysis supports the premise with spatial data on 323,979 calls to police over all 115,000 addresses and intersections in Minneapolis over 1 year. Relatively few “hot spots” produce most calls to Police (50% of calls in 3% of places) and calls reporting predatory crimes (all robberies at 2.2% of places, all rapes at 1.2% of places, and all auto thefts at 2.7% of places), because crime is both rare (only 3.6% of the city could have had a robbery with no repeat addresses) and concentrated, although the magnitude of concentration varies by offense type. These distributions all deviate significantly, and with ample magnitude, from the simple Poisson model of chance, which raises basic questions about the criminogenic nature of places, as distinct from neighborhoods or collectivities.     

DOES WHAT POLICE DO AT HOT SPOTS MATTER? THE PHILADELPHIA POLICING TACTICS EXPERIMENT*

Policing tactics that are proactive, focused on small places or groups of people in small places, and tailor specific solutions to problems using careful analysis of local conditions seem to be effective at reducing violent crime. But which tactics are most effective when applied at hot spots remains unknown. This article documents the design and implementation of a randomized controlled field experiment to test three policing tactics applied to small, high‐crime places: 1) foot patrol, 2) problem‐oriented policing, and 3) offender‐focused policing. A total of 81 experimental places were identified from the highest violent crime areas in Philadelphia (27 areas were judged amenable to each policing tactic). Within each group of 27 areas, 20 places were randomly assigned to receive treatment and 7 places acted as controls. Offender‐focused sites experienced a 42 percent reduction in all violent crime and a 50 percent reduction in violent felonies compared with their control places. Problem‐oriented policing and foot patrol did not significantly reduce violent crime or violent felonies. Potential explanations of these findings are discussed in the contexts of dosage, implementation, and hot spot stability over time.     

ESCALATION AND DESISTANCE OF WIFE ASSAULT IN MARRIAGE*

This article examines two widely held beliefs concerning the nature of “careers” of wife assault. Most researchers and members of the public believe that assaultive behavior in marriage, once begun, tends to continue for the life of the marriage. It is also commonly believed that minor violence (e.g., slapping, shoving, throwing things at a spouse) is unrelated to severe assaults (e.g., punching, kicking, using a weapon). These beliefs are based on the most severe cases of wife battering, as described by the media and by women in shelters. Despite these beliefs, we suggest that wife assault is similar to other forms of deviance and crime, in that desistance is common and engaging in minor forms of deviance is a risk factor for engaging in major forms of deviance and crime. The article reports a study using data on a sample of 380 married respondents who reported some violence in their marriage in 1985 and were reinterviewed in 1986. The findings indicate that most marital violence is transient, but even minor violence by a wife poses a risk of escalation to more dangerous assaults by a husband. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.     

ON THE CAUSES OF "WHITE-COLLAR" CRIME: AN ASSESSMENT OF HIRSCHI AND GOTTFREDSON'S CLAIMS

This article assesses Hirschi and Gottfredson claims about patterns and explanations of White-collar crime. It points out several flaws in their analysis and shows (1) that the UCR offense categories of fraud and forgery are not appropriate indicators of white-collar or occupational crime because the typical arrestee in these categories committed a nonoccupational crime; (2) that the demographic distribution (age, sex, race) of these "white-collar" crimes is not the same as it is for most ordinary crimes; and (3) that the occurrence of these "white-collar" crimes is not relatively rare. The implications of the findings for research and theory on crime are also discussed.     

Quantifying the Exposure of Street Segments to Drinking Places Nearby

Objectives

Introduce and test the relative efficacy of two methods for modeling the impact of cumulative ‘exposure’ to drinking facilities on violent crime at street segments.

Methods

One method, simple count, sums the number of drinking places within a distance threshold. The other method, inverse distance weighted count, weights each drinking place within a threshold based on its distance from the street segment. Closer places are weighted higher than more distant places. Distance is measured as the street length from a street segment to a drinking place along the street network. Seven distance thresholds of 400, 800, 1,200, 1,600, 2,000, 2,400 and 2,800 feet are tested. A negative binomial regression model controlling for socio-economic characteristics, opportunity factors and spatial autocorrelation is used to evaluate which of the measure/threshold combinations produce a better fit as compared to a model with no exposure measures.

Results

Exposure measured as an inverse distance weighted count produces the best fitting model and is significantly related to violent crime at longer distances than simple count (from 400 to 2,800 feet). Exposure to drinking places using a simple count is significantly related to violent crime up to 2,000 feet. Both models indicate the influence of drinking places is highest at shorter distance thresholds.

Conclusions

Both researchers and practitioners can more precisely quantify the influence of drinking places in multivariate models of street segment level violent crime by incorporating proximity in the development of a cumulative exposure measure. The efficacy of using exposure measures to quantify the influence of other types of facilities on crime patterns across street segments should be explored.     

Routine Activity Theory and Sexual Deviance Among Male College Students

Much research on sexual deviance on university and college campuses is limited by its narrow focus on group affiliation. In this study, it is argued that prior deviance and opportunity serve as more robust predictor variables of sexual deviance. Using a sample of 304 male college students from four universities within the Ohio Valley Conference, this paper utilizes Analytic moment structures (AMOS) analyses to examine the relationship between prior deviance and sexual deviance. Results support the assumption that sexual aggression is significantly (β=.17) mediated or accounted for by opportunity. Overall, the relationships among variables lend support to the argument that alternative explanations of sexual deviance may provide a better understanding of such a complex societal problem.

Ethnic minorities,culture conflicts and crime

Since the mid-sixties debate among German criminologists has centered around the impact of cultural conflict on deviance and crime. Research in this area is restricted to individual level explanations of behavior. There is, however, another avenue provided by culture conflict theories. This paper describes the contemporary German situation and suggests that shared values and collective morals are no longer the nucleus of stability in modern industrial societies; they have been replaced by a material culture. When large proportions of the population are denied access to this material culture, the potential for a collective reaction increases. Violent behavior is then justified by the assertion that culture or national identities are being defended. Thus, collective reactions might lead to cultural conflicts between groups and go beyond individual violent acts or other types of deviance.     

CORPORATIONS,ORGANIZED CRIME,AND THE DISPOSAL OF HAZARDOUS WASTE: AN EXAMINATION OF THE MAKING OF A CRIMINOGENIC REGULATORY STRUCTURE*

This paper explores the relationship between legitimate corporations that generate hazardous waste and elements of organized crime with whom they contract for the removal, treatment, or disposition of those wastes. The scope and importance of hazardous waste as a social problem is first described and the variety of organized crime participation in waste handling is summarized. The paper then explores the factors that enabled organized crime to become active in this sector of the economy. Lax implementation and en forcement, the most common explanations, are discussed. The formation of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 is analyzed to show that there was a prior and more fundamental factor: large corporate generators of hazardous waste fought for a regulatory structure that would prove to be highly vulnerable to organized crime intrusion. This fact is then used to discuss and critique two current explanations of the relationship of corporate generators to organized crime waste handlers: “ignorance” and “powerlessness.” Finally, it is argued that although generators did not consciously intend to facilitate organized crime entry into hazardous waste hauling, they did subsequently enjoy tangible benefits from that entry.     

THE INFLUENCE OF TESTOSTERONE ON DEVIANCE IN ADULTHOOD: ASSESSING AND EXPLAINING THE RELATIONSHIP*

Using a large sample of men, we examine alternative models of the way in which testosterone may influence adult deviant behavior. The results indicate a significant and moderately strong relationship between testosterone and adult deviance, and this relationship between testosterone and adult deviance is largely mediated by the influence of testosterone on social integration and on prior involvement in juvenile delinquency. In addition, testosterone level moderates the relationship of social integration to adult deviance: The restraining influence of social integration is less necessary for men with lower levels of testosterone. Further, prior delinquency interacts with social integration in the same fashion, accounting for much of the moderating effect of testosterone. This pattern of results supports the conclusions that (1) testosterone is one of a larger constellation of factors contributing to a general latent propensity toward deviance and (2) the influence of testosterone on adult deviance is closely tied to social factors. Our findings show that there is considerable promise in a biosocial approach that integrates social and biological explanations, rather than playing them off against one another.     

Exposure to Property Crime as a Consequence of Poverty

This paper investigates whether and why the poor are more exposed to property crime than are the non‐poor, despite the reasonable assumption that poor people lack or have little valuable property that can be stolen. If poor people are more exposed to property crime than those who are not poor, there are needs for explanations. The paper investigates two plausible reasons: the significance of the neighbourhood character and routine activities. The results in the paper indicates that poor people are more exposed to property crimes related to the residence, independent of neighbourhood character and routine activities, while exposure to property crimes related to vehicles depends more on the family situation and age than on poverty per se. When it comes to other kinds of property crime, poor people do not seem to be more exposed than do the nonpoor. That poor people are more exposed to property crime related to their residence, and that there are problem areas explaining why, is worrisome. Those who are poor are often vulnerable to other social problems that tend to exclude them from ordinary living patterns. To find out the relation between poverty and exposure to property crimes related to residence is of importance for crime prevention and probably an important step to prevent those who are poor from being further excluded from society.     

Instittutional attachments and self-control: Understanding deviance among Hispanic adolescents

This study tested the ability of the general theory of crime and social control theory to account for self-reported deviance among a sample of 298 Puerto Rican high school students. The following hypotheses were examined: (1) Low attachment levels (to parents, religion, school, and friends) will positively and significantly predict deviance, (2) Individual with low levels of self-control will be more likely to report involvement in deviance, and (3) Low self-control will mediate the relationship between attachments (parents, religion, school, and friends) and deviance. Results indicated support for social control theory and did not support the general theory of crime. Self-control was not significantly predictive of deviance whereas many of the institutional attachment variables were important predictors of deviance among Hispanic high school students (attachment to parents, school, and friends). Theoretical and policy implications of the findings supportive of social control theory are discussed.     

More Places than Crimes: Implications for Evaluating the Law of Crime Concentration at Place

Objectives

The crime and place literature lacks a standard methodology for measuring and reporting crime concentration. We suggest that crime concentration be reported with the Lorenz curve and summarized with the Gini coefficient, and we propose generalized versions of the Lorenz curve and the Gini coefficient to correct for bias when crime data are sparse (i.e., fewer crimes than places).

Methods

The proposed generalizations are based on the principle that the observed crime concentration should not be compared with perfect equality, but with maximal equality given the data. The generalizations asymptotically approach the original Lorenz curve and the original Gini coefficient as the number of crimes approaches the number of spatial units.

Results

Using geocoded crime data on two types of crime in the city of The Hague, we show the differences between the original Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient and the generalized versions. We demonstrate that the generalizations provide a better representation of crime concentration in situations of sparse crime data, and that they improve comparisons of crime concentration if they are sparse.

Conclusions

Researchers are advised to use the generalized versions of the Lorenz curve and the Gini coefficient when reporting and summarizing crime concentration at places. When places outnumber crimes, the generalized versions better represent the underlying processes of crime concentration than the original versions. The generalized Lorenz curve, the Gini coefficient and its variance are easy to compute.

     

DOES CRIME JUST MOVE AROUND THE CORNER? A CONTROLLED STUDY OF SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT AND DIFFUSION OF CRIME CONTROL BENEFITS*

Recent studies point to the potential theoretical and practical benefits of focusing police resources on crime hot spots. However, many scholars have noted that such approaches risk displacing crime or disorder to other places where programs are not in place. Although much attention has been paid to the idea of displacement, methodological problems associated with measuring it have often been overlooked. We try to fill these gaps in measurement and understanding of displacement and the related phenomenon of diffusion of crime control benefits. Our main focus is on immediate spatial displacement or diffusion of crime to areas near the targeted sites of an intervention. Do focused crime prevention efforts at places simply result in a movement of offenders to areas nearby targeted sites—“do they simply move crime around the corner”? Or, conversely, will a crime prevention effort focusing on specific places lead to improvement in areas nearby—what has come to be termed a diffusion of crime control benefits? Our data are drawn from a controlled study of displacement and diffusion in Jersey City, New Jersey. Two sites with substantial street‐level crime and disorder were targeted and carefully monitored during an experimental period. Two neighboring areas were selected as “catchment areas” from which to assess immediate spatial displacement or diffusion. Intensive police interventions were applied to each target site but not to the catchment areas. More than 6,000 20‐minute social observations were conducted in the target and catchment areas. They were supplemented by interviews and ethnographic field observations. Our findings indicate that, at least for crime markets involving drugs and prostitution, crime does not simply move around the corner. Indeed, this study supports the position that the most likely outcome of such focused crime prevention efforts is a diffusion of crime control benefits to nearby areas.     

The ecological context of interpersonal violence: from culture to collective efficacy

This brief essay outlines the progression over the last 20 years of ecological theories of interpersonal violence. The period between the present and the early 1980s began with a revival of cultural explanations of violence that paralleled the introduction of the neo-conservative social science and then witnessed a rediscovery of deficits based structural explanations of interpersonal violence under the broad rubric of social disorganization theory. The essay concludes with a more optimistic appraisal of recent refinements of social disorganization theory that consider the mediating effects of collective efficacy on urban crime and interpersonal violence.     

What do Alternative Measures of Peer Behavior Tell Us? Examining the Discriminant Validity of Multiple Methods of Measuring Peer Deviance and the Implications for Etiological Models

Deviant behavior tends to be more strongly correlated with respondents’ perceptions of peer deviance than with actual peer deviance. However, research has yet to discern between two interpretations of this finding. On one hand, respondent perceptions of peer deviance may simply be “biased” indicators of actual peer behavior or alternative measures of one’s own deviance. On the other, respondent perceptions and actual peer deviance may reflect fundamentally separate constructs. The present study uses two separate statistical methods to discern the empirical validity of each interpretation. It then illustrates the importance of the measurement results with a series of cross-lagged panel analyses assessing how a researcher’s operationalization of peer deviance impinges upon conclusions about the bidirectional relationship between personal and peer deviance. Measurement results across two separate behavioral domains (property crime and substance use) suggest that actual peer deviance items reflect a construct fundamentally separate from both personal and perceived peer deviance. Likewise, results fail to support the claim that peer deviance items are simply alternative measures of one’s own deviance. Cross-lagged structural equation results are consistent with the notion that personal deviance affects both later perceptions of peer deviance and actual peer deviance. Yet, null or very weak effects of either peer deviance measure on personal deviance are observed. In light of our findings, we discuss the necessity for new theorizing concerning the complex relations among personal behavior, perceived peer behavior, and actual peer behavior.