The Presidential and Parliamentary Elections of the Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela: Change and Continuity (1998–2000)

The paper examines to what extent electoral behaviour in Venezuela, as it appeared in the elections of 1998 and 2000, is different from that observed between 1958 and 1988. The paper reaches the conclusion that given the decline in party identification (dealignment), the short-term variables specific to each election, in particular the attitude towards government performance and personalities, have grown in weight vis-à-vis the structural factors (party identification, institutions, long-standing political predispositions). However, the latter were still relevant and important in the 1998 and 2000 elections and it is very likely they will carry on as such for the future. It is also concluded that, even though the party system has become unstable due to the decline in identification with the traditional government parties, new stabilising factors seem to have appeared and should be taken into account. These are ideology and negative party identification.     

韩国的选举制度与政治体制

本文旨在分析韩国的选举制度如何加大了社会的不平等现象。1997年金融危机之后,韩国社会迅速走上两极化道路。本文分三个层次进行论述。一是简要介绍韩国的选举制度。这将作为支撑本文核心见解的框架。二是考察韩国选举制度导致的＂民心歪曲＂现象。三是探讨政治制度的党派特征。即使同为民主主义,但选择比例代表制还是多数制将决定其政策方向。最后,在结论部分中强调,若要使韩国的选举制度取得更加均衡的政治结果,就一定要取消现行多数制,采用比例代表制度。比例代表制将有助于实现得票和议席之间的均衡,并进一步创造平等的民主主义。     

Values and Votes: The Indirect Effect of Personal Values on Voting Behavior

Recent research from social psychology suggests that personal values predict political behavior, such as vote choice. In contrast to previous studies, it is hypothesized in this article that personal values influence voting behavior only indirectly through political value orientation. Drawing on the personal value concept of Shalom Schwartz, structural equation models based on Swiss electoral data (SELECTS 2007) are applied to test the hypothesis of indirect effects. The empirical analysis shows that the effects of personal values are indeed mediated by political values, but that their indirect impact on vote choice remains substantial. It is argued on a theoretical level that personal values need first to be translated (or transformed) into political values to become effective on voting behavior.     

从俄格冲突到国际金融危机的“危机政治经济学”——俄罗斯与大国关系的变迁及其对中国的启示

2008年发生的俄格军事冲突对俄罗斯与西方大国关系产生了重大影响.同一年金融危机的发生,也使得俄罗斯与西方关系受到巨大考验.这两场看似没有联系的重大危机都表现出俄罗斯在危机形势下不甘示弱的态度,也折射出俄罗斯与西方国家之间合作与竞争的复杂状况.所谓"危机政治经济学"强调的是,无论是摆脱军事冲突,还是金融海啸式的危机,大国间的合作将是一个决定性的因素.     

核武器对同盟的影响——以朝核问题与日美同盟的互动为例

核武器通过对威胁能力与威胁认知的修正对同盟建立产生影响。核武器及其拥有国的数量影响同盟的结构样式和结构变动。核武器拥有、部署及威慑功能的变动持续塑造同盟参与国对威胁的认知,从而影响同盟参与国的对外政策。同盟内核保护的明确性与可信性、核武器功能及部署的分享与分工、国际核安全机制的构建,都将影响同盟的内部互信。综观朝核问题对日美同盟的影响:日美同盟参与国对外政策的不协调为其表,日美同盟内互信的动摇为其中,日美同盟结构的进一步"平等化"为其里。