China's Dilemma: Invest at Home or in US Stimulus

As the global financial crisis emanating from the United States shuts down world markets, can globalization survive? Will the resurgent intrusion of the state—and thus politics—into the market lead to protectionism and collapse, as was the case in the early 20th century? Or will the new interconnectivity of climate change and mutual economic dependence—especially between China and the US—deepen global links? The former mayor of Shanghai, legendary Nobel economist Paul Samuelson and Third Way guru Anthony Giddens ponder those questions in this section.     

Eulogy for the Dollar?

Globalization has indeed flattened the earth, paving the way for new beginnings and the resurgence of old cultures alike by levelling the playing field for all comers. While this new era of post‐globalization certainly heralds de‐Westernization by century's end, is it more likely to mean a revival of the old ways of the East or the new hybrid ways of the first global civilization? Some of Asia's most provocative voices, as well as the world's most renowned cellist and cross‐pollinating musician, offer their views.     

Descent of the Dollar and Rise of the Rest

Though another Great Depression seems to have been averted for the moment, great geo-economic shifts are in the works as a result of the global meltdown emanating from Wall Street. Four Nobel laureates in economics take a look at where we are headed.     

Political Symbolism and the Fall of the USSR

When Gorbachev came to power he inherited not simply a system in crisis, but a structure of symbols that was embedded within the broader political system and which was also in crisis. Given the ideocratic nature of the Soviet system, any change to that system would require symbolic change as well. This essay charts how Gorbachev sought to come to grips with this problem, investing some symbols with new meaning while rejecting others. It shows how ultimately he was unable to produce a new, coherent narrative.     

The Coming Battle of the Atlantic: Euro vs. the Dollar

American‐led globalization has enabled the third great powershift of the last five hundred years—the “rise of the rest” following on the rise of the West and then the rise of the US as the dominant power in the West. When China, India, Brazil, Turkey and the rest sit at the table of global power with the West what will the world order look like? Will it be post‐American? Will it be culturally non‐Western, but play by the same rules of an open international order laid down by the American's after World War II? In the following pages, leading American and Asian intellectuals ponder these questions.     

Recalling the Fall of the Berlin Wall

Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the triumphant celebrations of the West, a new chapter of history has opened featuring the rising powers of Asia, led by China. Though embracing free markets, China has looked to its Confucian traditions instead of liberal democracy as the best route to good governance. Will China manage to achieve high growth and a harmonious society through a strong state and long‐range planning that puts messy Western democracy and its short‐term mindset to shame? Or, in the end, will the weak rule of law and absence of political accountability in a one‐party state undermine its promise? Francis Fukuyama and Kishore Mahbubani, the Singaporean thinker who has become the apostle of non‐Western modernity, debate these issues. In this section we also republish a collective memoir by George H.W. Bush, Mikhail Gorbachev, Margaret Thatcher and François Mitterrand, recalling their fears and hopes two decades ago as they brought the Cold War to an end.     

The Rise and Fall of New Labour

The world is rapidly evolving on many fronts. Brazil, Turkey and other emerging powers are taking their own initiatives and building their own global links outside the old frameworks of the G‐8, the United Nations Security Council and NATO. The “third way” politics of Tony Blair that embraced globalization from the left of center in Britain has given way to the Tory party once again. Just as recovery from the financial crash seemed on the horizon, Europe's sovereign debt crisis has erupted. The historically unprecedented pace and scale of urbanization in China is transforming the politics of the Communist Party. President Lula of Brazil, former US treasury secretary Henry Paulson, Singapore's foreign minister George Yeo and others take stock of these manifold developments.     

The Fall of Wall Street

Globalization may not be coming apart at the seams—yet—but the seams are ever more apparent. Rising fuel prices challenge a model of global transportation based on cheap energy, reinforcing the possibility of decoupling through great regionaliza‐tion of trade. Already, 50 percent of trade among ASEAN plus China and Japan is among each other. The Wall Street meltdown has spread a lack of confidence in the American financial system and the model of deregulation which stimulated rapid globalization of capital flows. Along with other developments, all this raises the question of whether the United States is prepared to operate successfully in a world it no longer dominates. An anti‐globalization leader, a former US labor secretary, a top American intellectual and a Nobel laureate address these issues.     

苏联兴亡通鉴：十条主要历史经验

在20世纪世界历史与版图上有一个地跨欧亚两洲的大国苏维埃社会主义国家于1917年横空出世,灿然兴起。它在1918—1920年打败了国内外敌对势力的猖狂进攻后,只用了十几年时间就快速实现了国家工业化,消灭各种私有制,于1936年宣告基本上建成了人类四百多年来梦寐以求的理想的社会主义制度。     

The Rise and Fall of the Celtic Tiger: When Deal-Making Trumps Developmentalism

Over the last two decades, the Irish economy has experienced some of the most remarkable turnarounds in development history. Long one of the poorest countries of Western Europe, with a GDP p.c. of 62?% of the OECD average in 1990, Ireland closed and surpassed this income gap during the 1990s, giving rise to the Celtic Tiger. But by the late 2000s, the country was mired in deep economic crisis. Grounded in a capabilities-based approach, the analysis demonstrates the important role of proactive government policies in promoting social capabilities, advancing local firm capabilities, and supporting the movement of transnational corporations (TNCs) toward higher value-added activities in the host country. The analysis highlights that the presence of TNC production does not automatically translate into technology spillovers to local producers. It illustrates how some location- and time-specific contingencies contributed to successful economic outcomes while others made their achievement more difficult. And it shows how misguided microeconomic incentives and neglect of macroeconomic fundamentals can seriously derail an upgrading strategy and lead to economic crisis.     

印度国大党缘何由盛而衰

印度国大党在领导印度取得独立后,长期处于单独连续执政的地位,并使印度在相当长的时期内保持了政治和社会的稳定,经济也有很大的发展。但就是这个有百年历史的老党却在1996年的国会大选中一败涂地,最终沦为在野党。考察印度国大党由盛而衰的原因,对我国的执政党建设有重要的启示意义。     

中国和平崛起与东亚的未来

中国的和平崛起,是一个至关重要的命题.理解这个命题,需要将历史的视野放得更宽一些.从世界历史发展的角度来看,中国的崛起并不是突然出现的、全新的、暂时的现象,而是一个已经持续了至少160多年的历史进程的最新阶段.中国的崛起将预示着东亚的未来.