Bad History

If history is a sort of radar for the ship of state, then the machine has broken down, just at the point where Gordon Brown, trained as a historian, takes over control. Caught up in the best-seller business, popularised on TV, it has come to reflect metropolitan commercial drives, the obsessions of The Hitler Channel or the 'publish or be damned' ethos of the Research Assessment Exercise. Fashionable discourses about identity and postmodern consumerism, and the palsied traditions of Fogeydomboth remote from the basic business of getting, spending and governing-may offer a niche-marketing future, but are more likely to speed the vessel towards the rocks.     

No Accounting for Tax Avoidance

In the 2010–15 Parliaments, the UK House of Commons Committee of Public Accounts held hearings and investigated some of the operations of the tax avoidance industry. Its reports have been highly critical of the role of big accountancy firms in designing, marketing and implementing tax avoidance schemes which have enabled their clients to avoid taxes. The Committee's recommendations set a reform agenda but drew a lukewarm response from the government. An examination of the Committee's reports provides an indication of the trajectories of future debates and policies.     

Bad for Men,Better for Women: The Impact of Stereotypes During Negative Campaigns

In this paper, we examine whether the impact of negative advertising on citizens’ evaluations of candidates depends on the gender of the candidates. Given common gender stereotypes, we expect negative campaigning aimed at women candidates will affect citizens differently than negative campaigning against male candidates. The results of our study, derived from a survey experiment conducted on a nationwide sample of more than 700 citizens, demonstrate that negative commercials are less effective at depressing evaluations of woman candidates, compared to male candidates. The findings are consistent and strong, across a range of forces that people use to assess competing candidates (i.e., affect and trait evaluations, people’s beliefs about issues, anticipated vote choice). The tight control of the experimental design, including randomization of respondents into different conditions that vary in only one way, demonstrates that the gender of the candidate influences people’s reactions to different types of negative commercials.

No Country for Old Men?

The 2008 election may be all about “change,” but which candidate benefits when both claim the same mantle? The author investigates the question with the help of one of the greatest architects of change in American politics, Abraham Lincoln. As a young man, Lincoln detailed the attractiveness of change to youthful candidates and voters alike.     

国债市场的发展急需恢复国债期货交易

1992— 1995年我国国债期货交易试点的失败是因为当时的市场经济体制不健全。在广大投资者风险意识有了很大提高 ,市场急需套期保值工具 ,国内外投资者苦于我国金融市场投资工具不足的今天 ,国家应尽快恢复国债期货交易 ,以搞活金融流通领域 ,发展金融期货市场。     

Good Cuts,Bad Cuts: The Need for Expenditure Analysis in Decremental Budgeting*

Quantitative targets are widely used in decremental budgeting. On the macro-level, governments set global limits for the growth of public expenditures, government deficits, or the ratio of government spending to GNP. On the micro-level, reduction targets are frequently assigned to spending ministries or agencies on a selective basis or across-the-board. While this kind of targetry appears to be indispensable to achieve cutbacks, it is also very deficient in that it treats public expenditures as a fungible commodity, consisting of interchangeable units of account. As austerity policies are coming of age, the inherent weaknesses in the targets approach attract increasing attention, and there is growing concern about the quality of austerity measures. To make sound decisions on such measures, governments must develop a better understanding of the characteristics and properties of various public expenditures. This paper outlines four varieties of expenditure analysis that may contribute to ‘the leap from quantity to quality’ in decremental budgeting.     

Big Data for Policy Analysis: The Good,The Bad,and The Ugly

Big data holds tremendous potential for public policy analysis. At the same time, its use prompts a number of issues related to statistical bias, privacy, equity, and governance, among others. Accordingly, there is a need to formulate, evaluate, and implement policies that not only mitigate the risks, but also maximize the benefits of using big data for policy analysis. This poses a number of challenges, which are highlighted in this essay.     

Breaking Bad News: Penal Populism,Tabloid Adversarialism and Brexit

This article analyses the role that British conservative tabloid newspapers play in promoting penal populism and delegitimising liberal prison reform initiatives. Principally, we consider how different sections of the British press reacted to the then Prime Minister David Cameron's prison reform speech of 8 February 2016. The analysis illustrates how different newspapers cohered around two diametrically opposing interpretations of the scandalous state of the prison system, reflecting distinctive penal philosophies and moral positions. In the context of penal populism and the populist furies unleashed by the Brexit campaign, the central research finding is that the comparatively passive and equivocal support offered by the broadsheets was no match for the vitriolic attack mounted by the conservative tabloids on the ‘soft justice’ parts of Cameron's prison reform agenda. We conclude by arguing that the stark lesson to be learned is that the scandal‐ridden prison is a particularly toxic issue marked by serial policy failure. Consequently, in a febrile, intermediatised penal populist context, why would any political leader take on the manifest risks associated with embarking on liberal prison reform?