Political generations in Northern Ireland

Since the late 1980s, Northern Ireland has seen a radical electoral shift away from the historically dominant parties in the Catholic and Protestant blocs – the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), respectively – towards the traditionally more ‘extreme’ parties – Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). This change in aggregate support has been accompanied by increasing differences between generations as older cohorts of UUP and SDLP supporters have been replaced by newer cohorts of DUP and Sinn Fein partisans. This is not a result of increased polarisation in values and attitudes (whether overtly political or simply communal intolerance) among younger cohorts who are, if anything, slightly more moderate than their forbears. Rather, this results from the changing political context in which new generations have been socialised – in particular the expanded choice sets facing voters as they have reached voting age. This in turn has positive implications for the consolidation of devolved democratic governance.     

Political Representation of Women in Northern Ireland

Increasing the political representation of women in Northern Ireland is part of fostering political pluralism. First, the political representation of women requires democratic participation and a justification of 'women' as a category. Second, specific factors of culture and the church unique to Ireland hinder women's participation in elected politics, and there are additional factors of class, violence, and nationalism that are peculiar to Northern Ireland. Third, gender quotas are successful elsewhere, but alone will not alter the powerful resistance to feminist change in Northern Ireland. Structures to encourage inclusionary politics must create spaces for political women to be transformative agents.     

Northern Ireland: At the Crossroads of Political and Administrative Reform

Northern Ireland is at a political and administrative cross-roads. Politically the Good Friday Agreement has paved the way for devolved government, and administratively the system of Direct Rule from Westminster will come to an end. This article examines the major problems of accountability linked to Direct Rule government and sets out a policy agenda for the new Northern Ireland Assembly.     

The Moral Minority: Evangelical Protestants in Northern Ireland and Their Political Behaviour

It has long been asserted that strong evangelical religious beliefs underpin strong unionist and loyalist political attitudes in Northern Ireland. Although recent literature has argued for a wide diversity of political attitudes amongst evangelicals, this has not been quantified. Based on analysis of the 1991 Northern Irish Social Attitudes Survey and the 1998 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey, this article argues that evangelicals are attitudinally different to other Protestants in Northern Ireland. However, their distinctiveness arises from their conservative moral attitudes and not, as widely claimed, from stronger unionist political values. Indeed, in terms of party identification, in 1991 evangelicals were less likely than other Protestants to support the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). And although there has been a small shift towards the DUP over the course of the 1990s, it is not due to any strengthening of the unionism of evangelicals, but rather the increasing importance of moral conservatism in predicting voters' party choice in Northern Ireland.     

Alternative Ulster? Political Parties and the Non-constitutional Policy Space in Northern Ireland

This article uses data from a survey of the candidates in the 2003 Northern Ireland Assembly election to measure the policy positions of the Northern Irish political parties on scales that are the usual measurements of party policy in Western Europe, such as on economic and social issues, the European Union, morality issues, environmental issues and minority groups. These data were then used to test whether the Northern Ireland party system was conducive to integration or consociationalism, which is the current debate on conflict resolution in Northern Ireland. It argues that this debate has been under-theorised and that empirical data can be used to test the likelihood of either scenario. It concludes that, in most aspects, the Northern Ireland party system tends towards the consociational scenario but there are, nevertheless, aspects which suggest that an integrationist scenario could be produced in the long term.     

Economic and Political Integration Between the North and South of Ireland

A significant coordination deficit exists between the two economies in Ireland, which, if reduced, could bring mutual economic benefits; however, this does not mean that deeper economic integration can be a conduit to the political unification of Ireland. To the extent that economic integration has a political dimension, it should be about reducing the decades of mistrust and even animosity between the two parts of the island.     

The Impact of Devolution on Women's Political Representation Levels in Northern Ireland

Historically, Northern Ireland women have been severely under-represented in the formal political arena. Despite the main parties having failed to address this issue, women have notably increased their presence in elected positions since the establishment of the Northern Ireland Assembly in 1998. In the absence of any initiatives undertaken specifically to improve women's political status, it appears that the opportunities of devolution have facilitated these recent achievements. Specifically, the new political landscape has become more open and conducive to promoting women into positions of political power, and it is the impact of these developments that this article explores.     

Sowing Dragon's Teeth: Public Support for Political Violence and Paramilitarism in Northern Ireland

While much attention has been devoted to political efforts to solve the Northern Ireland problem, less attention has been given to the role of political violence in sustaining the conflict. We argue that one of the reasons for the intractability of the conflict is widespread exposure to political violence among the civil population. By 1998, thirty years after the conflict started, one in seven of the population reported being a victim of violence; one in five had a family member killed or injured; and one in four had been caught up in an explosion. Such widespread exposure to violence exists alongside latent support for paramilitarism among a significant minority of both communities. Using 1998 survey data, we show that exposure to violence serves to enhance public support for paramilitary groups, as well as to reduce support for the decommissioning of para-military weapons. Overall, the results suggest that only a lengthy period without political violence will undermine support for paramilitarism and result in the decommissioning of weapons.     

Bicommunalism in Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland is a bicommunal society in which Protestantsare numerically dominant; Roman Catholics constitute virtuallyall of the remaining population. On the island as a whole, Protestantsare heavily outnumbered; the Republic of Ireland (the "South")has a population that is about 96 percent Catholic. Social segregationof the two northern communities is relatively distinct, andthere is little crosscutting between groups that might lessenbicommunal conflict. A reciprocal relationship exists betweenthe social system and political structures. Northern Irish politicalinstitutions followed the Westminster model, which facilitatedthe political exclusion of Catholics and impeded social as wellas political integration. The bicommunal social structure hasimpeded the development of more accommodating political structures.Geographic issues and external linkages compound the politicalproblem. Northern Irish politics can be viewed as a "dual dyad"in which the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland arecritical components. Psychological dimensions of Northern Irishbicommunalism further exacerbate the conflict.     

Brexit,the Belfast Agreement and Northern Ireland: Imperilling a Fragile Political Bargain

The major impact of the Belfast Agreement was to engineer a peaceful coexistence between nationalism and unionism that involved each bloc recognising it had sufficient power to thwart the political ambitions of the other side, but not enough to push through its own agenda. This paper argues that Brexit seriously damages this peaceful coexistence and could trigger what is termed an Ulster war of attrition in which Northern Ireland becomes entrapped in a political stalemate where each side strives to triumph without having sufficient power to do so. It also argues that to restore internal political stability in Northern Ireland, and to indemnify against the risk of disorderly relationships between the British and Irish governments in the future, the strategic importance of Strand 3 of the Belfast Agreement requires strengthening.     

Political Skills or Lying and Manipulation? The Choreography of the Northern Ireland Peace Process

The 'real war' and 'propaganda war' fought over Northern Ireland for thirty years polarised party and public opinion. The key dilemma faced by politicians during the recent peace process has been how to wind down the 'war' and win sufficient party and public support for an accommodation between unionists and nationalists which falls so far short of previous expectations. Scripts telling contrasting stories have been prepared to convince rival republican and unionist audiences to support the peace process. In addition, the pro-Agreement parties have attempted to shift opinion towards accommodation through a range of political skills and choreography. Key competing parties and governments have sometimes co-operated back stage while front stage they have on occasion 'play acted' conflict between each other. The political skills, or lying and manipulation, by which the peace process has been driven forward have been uncovered creating public distrust in the political process. Realists see such political deception as an inevitable part of politics and permissible on the grounds that the ends justify the means. Absolutists attack the 'spin, lying and manipulation' of the peace process as an assault on democracy. A third democratic realist position argues that sometimes moral leadership requires doing wrong to do right but the gap between 'truth' and 'spin' should be narrowed. A more open and honest politics would not only be more accountable and democratic but also effective in advancing the peace process.     

Ideology,reconciliation and nationalism in Northern Ireland

This article explores the conceptualization of ‘reconciliation’ within modern Northern Irish nationalist discourse. I argue that the case of Northern Irish nationalism adds a new dimension to those understandings that remain currently underappreciated within the literature. The article charts how reconciliation becomes operationalized as a restrictive politics both despite and because of it being framed in a language of pluralism, restoration and openness. While this process points towards the constitution of a political and ideological community, the concept of reconciliation also precipitates contestation and competition – not simply over memory but over a moral vision of the (violent) past. As such, I argue that reconciliation is not so much about the past but about ideological reframing(s). The case of Northern Irish nationalism, then, suggests that those reframings – a closing down and an opening up of debate – take place simultaneously within the rhetoric of reconciliation.