Strategic Ticket Splitting and the Personal Vote in Mixed‐Member Electoral Systems

This article examines ticket splitting in five different mixed‐member electoral systems—Germany, New Zealand, Japan, Lithuania, and RussiA—and indicates the shortcomings inherent in any analysis of such ticket splitting that does not take into account the presence of the personal vote. We find that the personal vote plays a central part in shaping ticket splitting in all of our cases except for Germany, a heavily party‐oriented system in which we find evidence of only a weak personal vote but evidence of substantial strategic voting.     

Electoral Influences on Legislative Behavior in Mixed‐Member Systems: Evidence from Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada

Abstract: This article addresses how mixed‐member systems that combine proportional representation (PR) and single‐member districts (SMD) into a single election can influence legislators' voting behavior. Scholars have generally extended standard expectations of behavior to mixed‐member systems by assuming that legislators occupying PR seats in mixed‐member parliaments should be more cohesive than those occupying SMD seats. I argue that controlling for seat type alone does not take into account the interaction between PR and SMD in mixed‐member systems. Using voting data from Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada, I show that controlling for dual candidacy and the “safety” of the deputy's district or list position increases our understanding of the factors motivating legislative cohesion.     

Partisan Turnout Bias in Midterm Legislative Elections

Abstract: Lower salience elections present greater opportunities for representational bias at the polls than do elections with higher levels of political interest. We hypothesize that turnout bias is most likely to occur during midterm congressional elections in which there are clear short‐term forces that exploit the low turnout setting. The effects of these forces are more likely to be observable among registered nonvoters than citizens who are not registered to vote because registrants have access to the polls and are likely to have voted in previous presidential contests. Using midterm National Election Study data from 1978 to 1998, we find that registered nonvoters are frequently more Democratic than midterm election voters, particularly in 1994 and 1998. The historic 1994 congressional election seat losses for Democrats may be partially explained by the finding that voters going to the polls were clearly more conservative than registered nonvoters.     

Constitutional‐Electoral Reforms and Politics in Singapore

Abstract The existence of a dominant one‐party system in Singapore makes legislative passage of constitutional and electoral system reforms easy. Such a system has enabled the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) government to formulate and implement sweeping reforms with little difficulty, however controversial they are. Since 1980, the Singapore government has instituted nonconstituency MPs, nominated MPs, group representation constituencies, and an elected presidency. Although not necessarily intended, one consequence of these reforms has been the consolidation of the government's power.     

Single‐Image Rectification Technique in Forensic Science

Many researchers have been working in Spain to document the communal graves of those assassinated during the Spanish Civil War. This article shows the results obtained with two low‐cost photogrammetric techniques for the basic documentation of forensic studies. These low‐cost techniques are based on single‐image rectification and the correction of the original photo displacement due to the projection and perspective distortions introduced by the lens of the camera. The capability of image rectification is tested in an excavation in the village of Loma de Montija (Burgos, Spain). The results of both techniques are compared with the more accurate data obtained from a laser scanner system RIEGL LMS‐Z390i to evaluate the error in the lengths. The first technique uses a camera situated on a triangle‐shaped pole at a height of 5 m and the second positions the camera over the grave using a linearly actuated device. The first technique shows measurement errors less than 6%, whereas the second shows greater errors (between 8% and 14%) owing to the positioning of the carbon‐fiber cross on an uneven surface.     

Selection and Incentives in the Electoral Security‐Constituency Communication Relationship

The relative importance of selection and incentives is essential for understanding how elections structure politicians’ behavior. I investigate the relative magnitudes of these two effects in the context of US House members’ constituency communication. Consistent with previous research, I find that there is a negative cross‐sectional relationship between electoral security and the intensity of constituency communication. The negative relationship holds in a panel‐data setting where only within‐legislator variation in electoral security is used to identify the effect of electoral security on legislator behavior. Due to the likely presence of myopic voters, the impact of electoral security increases as the election approaches. Point estimates suggest that the total effect is almost entirely driven by incentives, and I am able to reject the hypothesis that the incentive effect is zero at conventional levels of statistical significance.     

Candidates,Campaigns, or Partisan Conditions? Reevaluating Strategic‐Politicians Theory

According to strategic‐politicians theory, political elites help ensure electoral responsiveness even when the mass public is deficient. Testing this theory requires measuring the effects of candidate experience and campaign spending, but one must confront endogeneity problems, because the theory requires potential candidates and campaign contributors to be responsive to district partisan conditions and national partisan tides. By applying an instrumental‐variable method to control for selection bias, we found that challenger experience only matters indirectly, through its effect on campaign expenditures, but partisan context matters both directly and indirectly. We theorize that challenger experience is best understood as an informational shortcut: it signals incumbent vulnerability to potential campaign contributors.     

The Limits of Electoral Control: Evidence from Last‐Term Politicians

In modern democracies, politicians' accountability is often linked to the disciplining mechanism of electoral control. For politicians in their final term, this mechanism is impaired. Using a novel data set covering 910 members of the UK House of Commons active within the period 1997–2010, we investigate how reduced electoral control affects last‐term MPs' trade‐off between work effort inside parliament, leisure, and outside interests. Our main contributions lie in providing the first explicit consideration of (1) MPs' final‐term intra‐/extraparliamentary work balance and (2) MPs' reasons for leaving parliament (i.e., retirement, career change, electoral defeat). These extensions provide important fresh insights concerning the boundaries of elections' disciplining power.     

Effectiveness of Single‐Nucleotide Polymorphisms to Investigate Cattle Rustling

Short tandem repeats (STR)s have been the eligible markers for forensic animal genetics, despite single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP)s became acceptable. The technology, the type, and amount of markers could limit the investigation in degraded forensic samples. The performance of a 32‐SNP panel genotyped through OpenArrays^TM (real‐time PCR based) was evaluated to resolve cattle‐specific forensic cases. DNA from different biological sources was used, including samples from an alleged instance of cattle rustling. SNPs and STRs performance and repeatability were compared. SNP call rate was variable among sample type (average = 80.18%), while forensic samples showed the lowest value (70.94%). The repeatability obtained (98.7%) supports the used technology. SNPs had better call rates than STRs in 12 of 20 casework samples, while forensic index values were similar for both panels. In conclusion, the 32‐SNPs used are as informative as the standard bovine STR battery and hence are suitable to resolve cattle rustling investigations.     

The Single‐Party Dictator's Dilemma: Information in Elections without Opposition

The literature on authoritarian institutions points to nationwide elections as a mechanism for learning about the preferences of citizens. In using elections in this way, however, authoritarians face a trade‐off between gathering reliable information and guaranteeing electoral victory. In this article, we explore how single‐party regimes manage this trade‐off and the particular types of information available to them. Using candidate‐level data from Vietnam, we demonstrate that single‐party regimes, in particular, forsake information on overall regime support and strength of opposition in favor of information on the popularity of local notables and the compliance of local officials with central mandates. In addition, we show that ex ante electioneering is less risky than ex post fraud at achieving these goals.     

Measuring Aggregate‐Level Ideological Heterogeneity

Ideological heterogeneity is a key variable for the study of legislative and electoral politics. Scholars have long recognized that members with more ideologically heterogeneous constituencies behave differently than members with more homogeneous ones. Empirical tests of these theories, however, have typically been stymied by a lack of appropriate measures. We corrected this shortcoming by developing a measurement model for ideological heterogeneity, and we used our method to generate estimates for the 50 U.S. states and 435 congressional districts. Beyond the specific results presented here, a key contribution of our model is its flexibility: our technique can be used to produce similar estimates in a variety of contexts.     

Choosing your own Boss: Variations of Representation Foci in Mixed Electoral Systems

Members of parliament are privileged agents. They can choose who to regard as their principal: the entire nation, a particular electoral district or a political party. Focusing on two countries with mixed electoral systems, Romania and Hungary, the article documents the dominance of the electoral logic of role-formation over the constraints of legislative organisation and the influence of socialisation. The focus of representation is found to be only modestly influenced by the degree of the embeddedness of MPs in political structures and hierarchies. The association of the seat with a particular territorial unit, on the other hand, has a robust effect even when this association originates in the political environment and not in formal rules. Finally, the psychological effect of losing a Single Member District is also found to influence how MPs perceive their representative role.     

Analysis and Discrimination of Single‐Layer White Architectural Paint Samples,

Comparative analyses of 50 single‐layer white architectural paints were conducted to determine the discrimination power using standard techniques and to provide a basis for assessing significance when paints with limited features are not discriminated. Utilizing Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), 68 undifferentiated pairs resulted, yielding a discrimination of 94.45%. Adding stereomicroscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) and backscatter electron (BSE) imaging, and pyrolysis‐gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (Py‐GC/MS), the overall discrimination was 99.35%. The study included blind verification replicates, which resulted in the only pairs without indications of physical or chemical differences. The remaining groups of undifferentiated samples contained subtle differences by at least one technique, but were considered undifferentiated for the discrimination power evaluations. This study demonstrates a high degree of discrimination of single‐layer white architectural paints using methods of analysis often encountered in forensic science laboratories.     

Measuring Disorder: Observer Bias in Systematic Social Observations at Streets and Neighborhoods

Objectives

The present study focuses on Systematic Social Observation (SSO) as a method to investigate physical and social disorder at different units of analysis. The study contributes to the aggregation bias debate and to the ‘social science of ecological assessment’ in two ways: first, by presenting a new model that directly controls for observer bias in ecological constructs and second, by attempting to identify systematic sources of bias in SSO that affect the valid and reliable measurement of physical and social disorder at both street segments and neighborhoods.

Methods

Data on physical disorder (e.g., litter, cigarette butts) and social disorder (e.g., loitering adults) from 1422 street segments in 253 different neighborhoods in a conurbation of the greater The Hague area (the Netherlands) are analyzed using cross-classified multilevel models.

Results

Neighborhood differences in disorder are overestimated when scholars fail to recognize the cross-classified data structure of an SSO study that is due to allocation of street segments to observers and neighborhoods. Not correcting for observer bias and observational conditions underestimates the disorder–crime association at street segment/grid cell level, but overestimates this association at the neighborhood level.

Conclusion

Findings indicate that SSO can be used for measuring disorder at both street segment level and neighborhood level. Future studies should pay attention to observer bias prior to their data collection by selecting a minimum number of observers, offering extensive training, and collecting information on the urban background of the observers.

     

Individual Identification of Racehorses from Urine Samples Using a 26‐Plex Single‐Nucleotide Polymorphism Assay

To construct a system for identifying individual horses from urine samples that are submitted for postracing doping tests, we developed a genotyping assay based on 26‐plex single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). DNA was isolated from urine using a commercially available DNA/RNA extraction kit, and SNP genotyping was achieved with a SNaPshot^? technique. DNA profiles including 26 SNPs were acquired from urine samples and blood/hair samples. Within the studied Thoroughbred population, the 26‐plex assay showed a probability of identity of 5.80 × 10^?11. Compared to the conventional short tandem repeat assay, the SNP assay used less DNA, and the rate of successful genotyping was improved to 97% using aliquots of horse urine as small as 140 μL. The urinary DNA could be successfully genotyped under proper storage concerning refrigeration or freeze–thawing. This SNP assay can be used for individual identification when suspicious results are obtained from horse doping tests.     

The Impact of District Magnitude on Voter Drop‐Off and Roll‐Off in American Elections

This study demonstrates that multimember districts (MMDs) complicate ballots, reduce voter information, and increase incentives for strategic voting in ways that reduce voter participation. Using data from three states that elect members of at least one legislative chamber from both single‐member districts (SMDs) and MMDs, we test hypotheses about the impact on MMDs on ballot drop‐off (selecting fewer candidates for an office than permissible) and roll‐off (not voting in down‐ballot races). We find support for both sets of hypotheses, with the strongest results related to ballot drop‐off. The results have broad implications for voter participation, representation, and election administration in the many states and localities that use MMDs to elect public officials.     

The Cost of Majority‐Party Bias: Amending Activity under Structured Rules

All major legislation in the House necessitates a special rule from the Rules Committee before it can be brought to the chamber floor. These rules often strictly limit floor amendments to bills considered by the House. Scholars of political parties have argued that the House majority party can bias policy output away from the floor median through its usage of restrictive rules. In this article, we argue that in order to secure the passage of restrictive rules, the majority often makes concessions to centrist legislators through the amending process. We examine this theory using a newly collected data set that includes all amendments considered by the Rules Committee during the construction of structured rules in the 109th, 110th, and 111th Congresses (2005–2010). Our results are mixed, but they do suggest that moderate members of the majority party often receive concessions via amendments for their support of the majority party's agenda‐setting regime.     

“Bending” Evidence for a Cause: Scholar‐Advocacy Bias in Family Law

There are a number of salient public policy issues in the family law field that have invoked impassioned policy debates on a recurrent basis. In the absence of a body of research to address these critical concerns, advocates under the guise of social science scholarship have exacerbated the confusion and controversy by construing the scant available research evidence to justify their own ends, without regard to the relevance, quality, utility, and limitations of the studies. This is one of two articles on this problem that we have named “scholar‐advocacy bias.” In this article, we discuss the difference between truth in social science and truth in law. We identify common ways in which social science researchers and reviewers of research—wittingly or unwittingly—can become advocates for ideological positions and social policies at the expense of being balanced reporters of research evidence as illustrated by recent debates about overnight parenting of infants and toddlers. We also consider how adherence to established scientific principles and methods prevents the misuse of research in this way.     

Self‐selection or Socialization? A Dynamic Analysis of Committee Member Preferences

Theories on committee power assert that legislators self‐select to committees and therefore have preferences regarding the policy issues under the committees' jurisdictions that differ from the preferences of noncommittee members. I argue that preference outliers may be shaped both by processes of self‐selection and by endogenous processes within committees. Contrary to previous examinations of committee member preferences, the study utilizes a dynamic approach to examine the development of preferences over time in order to separate self‐selection from endogenous processes. Analyzing the development in the spending preferences of 859 Danish local politicians over three different election periods, I find that politicians increasingly prefer spending on their committees' jurisdictions over time, but their preferences do not change to the same extent on policy issues beyond their committees' jurisdictions. The findings point to the importance of endogenous processes in committees. Hence, committees may be outliers for very different reasons than those proposed by mainstream theory.     

Candidates,Votes, Outcomes: A Method for Evaluating Nomination Strategies in MMD/SNTV Electoral Systems

While characterized by disagreement, all scholarly work on multimember district electoral systems in which each voter casts a single, nontransferable vote (MMD/SNTV) is alike in one way: it evaluates party nominations under the assumption that votes are invariant under alternative strategies. But party votes may, in fact, vary with different nomination strategies. Moreover, depending on how much party votes vary under alternative nomination strategies, a method that considers such changes may evaluate nominations differently than previous studies in the literature have. In this article, I address party‐vote variance, proposing a method that estimates how much a party's obtained votes change under alternative nomination strategies and using this method to reevaluate the nominating behavior of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party.