American Terrorism and Extremist Crime Data Sources and Selectivity Bias: An Investigation Focusing on Homicide Events Committed by Far-Right Extremists

This paper examines the reliability of the methods used to capture homicide events committed by far-right extremists in a number of open source terrorism data sources. Although the number of research studies that use open source data to examine terrorism has grown dramatically in the last 10 years, there has yet to be a study that examines issues related to selectivity bias. After reviewing limitations of existing terrorism studies and the major sources of data on terrorism and violent extremist criminal activity, we compare the estimates of these homicide events from 10 sources used to create the United States Extremist Crime Database (ECDB). We document incidents that sources either incorrectly exclude or include based upon their inclusion criteria. We use a “catchment-re-catchment” analysis and find that the inclusion of additional sources result in decreasing numbers of target events not identified in previous sources and a steadily increasing number of events that were identified in any of the previous data sources. This finding indicates that collectively the sources are approaching capturing the universe of eligible events. Next, we assess the effects of procedural differences on these estimates. We find considerable variation in the number of events captured by sources. Sources include some events that are contrary to their inclusion criteria and exclude others that meet their criteria. Importantly, though, the attributes of victim, suspect, and incident characteristics are generally similar across data source. This finding supports the notion that scholars using open-source data are using data that is representative of the larger universe they are interested in. The implications for terrorism and open source research are discussed.     

Patterns of Onset and Decline Among Terrorist Organizations

Despite considerable speculation among terrorism researchers regarding the conditions leading to organizational desistance from terrorism, quantitative analysis of terrorism frequently focuses on terrorist attacks as the unit of analysis, resulting in a near complete absence of analyses of terrorist organizations themselves. Moreover, research on organizations that engage in terrorism has generally been limited to case studies of individual organizations. Toward a more general understanding of what conditions predict organizational desistance from terrorism, this study uses newly available data from the Global Terrorism Database to analyze the terrorist activity of 557 organizations that were active for at least 365 days between 1970 and 2008. Much like research on conventional crime, prior research on terrorism has focused almost exclusively on the onset of criminal behavior and has neglected determinants of declining activity. Here I use group-based trajectory models to investigate patterns of decline in organization-level terrorist activity. In particular I examine how patterns of onset relate to patterns of decline among these organizations. I first estimate the trajectory models for the organizations’ frequency of attacks, and then calculate the annual ratio of attacks to attacks-at-peak for each organization in order to isolate patterns of decline, independent of the magnitude of activity. I then repeat the trajectory analysis to determine if the relative shape of the organizational trajectory has significance beyond the overall frequency of attacks. I find that the speed and magnitude of an organization’s emergence are correlated with its longevity such that those organizations characterized by rapid onset are two to three times more likely than those characterized by moderate onset to reach moderate or high levels of attacks per year. Likewise, as the rate and overall volume of attacks at onset increase, so does the likelihood that the group will follow a persistent pattern of decline. I conclude with a discussion of the implications of patterns of decline among terrorist organizations for research and policy.     

Pathway to terrorist behaviors: The role of childhood experiences,personality traits,and ideological motivations in a sample of Iraqi prisoners

Radicalization to terrorism is a multifaceted process with no single theory or approach to explain it. Although research has focused on understanding the process, there is still a dearth of studies that examine an empirically driven pathway to terrorism behavior. This study examines a cross-sectional sample of incarcerated men convicted of terrorism in Iraq (N = 160). A questionnaire-guided interview included adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), conduct disorder (CD), antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), religious and political ideology, views about causes of terrorism, and the severity of terrorist acts. Path analysis was employed to examine the relationships between these factors and to identify the model with the best fit. After adjusting for age, employment, and location, results indicated that ACEs positively impacted CD, ASPD, religious guidance, and terrorism attitudes. ASPD positively affected political commitment and terrorism attitudes, but inversely affected current religious commitment. Political commitment inversely influenced terrorism attitudes. Religious commitment positively influenced the prioritization of religion in life, which subsequently impacted terrorism attitudes and behavior severity. Additionally, attitudes toward terrorism directly affected the severity of terrorism behavior. All paths in the final model were statistically significant at p < 0.05. Although these findings may be limited in generalizability due to the unique sample, results support the complex and interdependent nature of childhood and adult experiences on the development of both terrorism attitudes and the severity of terrorism behavior.     

The Mediated Effect of Contextual Risk Factors on Trajectories of Violence: Results from a Nationally Representative,Longitudinal Sample of Hispanic Adolescents

The current study sought to estimate trajectories of violent behavior and evaluate the direct and indirect effects of contextual factors among Hispanics, stratified by gender. Relying on data from 3,719 Hispanic adolescents surveyed as a part of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), violence trajectories were estimated using group-based trajectory modeling. The results identified three groups of violence trajectories for both males and females (non-violent, desistors, and escalators) and there were considerable gender differences in the direct and indirect effects of risk and protective factors on violent behavior. Study limitations and policy implications are also discussed.     

Social capital and crime: A cross-national multilevel study

Numerous studies have repeatedly supported the negative influence of social capital upon crime rates. Although the relationship between social capital and crime is theoretically persuasive and empirically robust, only a handful of studies have looked into its cross-national variation. Furthermore, no research in social capital has yet applied a multilevel approach to take into account both macro- and micro-level determinants of crime. In an attempt to fill in this research gap, we conducted multilevel analyses of country-level and individual-level factors of criminal victimization. Following the lead of previous studies, it was hypothesized that social capital—estimated as generalized trust, social norms, and civic engagement—reduces criminal victimization, net of individual-level determinants, and other well-established country-level factors. The results revealed that while a higher level of social capital was found to reduce the likelihood of robbery victimization, no significant impact was observed on burglary victimization. With regard to the three dimensions of social capital, generalized trust and social norms exerted significant effects on robbery victimization in the expected direction.     

Interviewing to Elicit Cues to Deception: Improving Strategic Use of Evidence with General-To-Specific Framing of Evidence

Previous research has demonstrated that the strategic use of evidence (SUE) approach of interviewing criminal suspects is effective at eliciting cues to deception. This study aims at expanding on the SUE approach by testing the technique of general-to-specific evidence framing. We conducted an experiment using a mock terrorism paradigm. Guilty participants took part in a simulated act of terrorism, while innocent participants performed a similar act involving no transgression. All participants (N?=?102) were then interviewed using one of four evidence disclosure styles (early disclosure, late disclosure, 2-step disclosure, or 4-step disclosure). We expected that disclosing evidence to the suspect gradually, with increasing specificity, would induce guilty suspects to alter their statements to a greater extent than innocent suspects. General-to-specific evidence framing effectively discriminated between guilty and innocent suspects, but results only partially supported the hypotheses.     

Cross-Classified Multilevel Models: An Application to the Criminal Case Processing of Indicted Terrorists

This study provides an application of cross-classified multilevel models to the study of early case processing outcomes for suspected terrorists in U.S. federal district courts. Because suspected terrorists are simultaneously nested within terrorist organizations and criminal court environments, they are characterized by overlapping data hierarchies that involve cross-nested ecological contexts. Cross-classified models provide a useful but underutilized approach for analyzing such data. Using the American Terrorism Study (ATS), this research examines case dismissals, trial adjudications and criminal convictions for a sample of 574 terrorist suspects. Findings indicate that diverse factors affect case processing outcomes, including legal factors such as the number of counts, number of co-defendants, and statute of indictment, extralegal factors such as the ethnicity of the offender, and incident characteristics such as the type of terrorism target. Case processing outcomes also vary significantly across both terrorist groups and criminal courts and are partially explained by select group and court characteristics including the type of terrorist organization and the terrorism trial rate of the court. Results are discussed vis-à-vis contemporary research on terrorism punishments and future directions are suggested for additional applications of cross-classified models in criminological research.     

The Concentration and Stability of Drug Activity in Seattle,Washington Using Police and Emergency Medical Services Data

Objectives

Prior research demonstrates that crime is highly concentrated at place and that these concentrations are stable from year to year, highlighting the importance of place to crime control and prevention. A potential limitation is that most studies only use one data source to diagnose these patterns. The present study uses data from both police and emergency medical services (EMS) to explore the spatial concentration and stability of drug activity in Seattle, Washington from 2009 to 2014.

Methods

We use concentration graphs and group-based trajectory analysis to examine concentration and stability of calls related to drug activity in both data sources separately and combined. Additionally, we employ Andresen’s S-Index to determine the similarity of concentration within the SPD data, the EMS data and the combined data year to year as well as the degree of co-location between the SPD and EMS data during the study period.

Results

We find a high degree of concentration and group-based stability for both SPD and EMS drug calls across all street segments in Seattle. Conversely, we find only moderate local geographic stability of drug use across street segments as indicated by each of the data sources over the study period. Last, we find the spatial patterns in drug use as indicated by each data source are significantly different each year.

Conclusions

At the same time these findings provide support for the law of crime concentration, they also raise questions about local stability patterns. Additionally, they highlight the importance of expanding inquiries of crime and place research into new data sources. Our results serve to reinforce the importance of multiple data sets in quantifying, understanding, and responding to the drug problem in Seattle.

     

Looking at terrorism through left realist lenses

While terrorism has moved into the spotlight of criminological study, including critical criminology, it has yet to be thoroughly explored from a left realist perspective. Left realism addresses four aspects of crime: causes of offending, impact on the victims, and both official and public responses to crime. A left realist approach to terrorism would argue that similar to those who engage in street crimes, many terrorists are socially or economically disenfranchised young men who become involved in terrorism through connections with similarly situated members of the fringe population, and “get tough” policies on terrorism will backfire. Four propositions of left realist theory organized by DeKeseredy and colleagues are presented and addressed through the extant literature, which offers partial support for a left realist explanation of terrorism.     

CORRELATES OF VIOLENT POLITICAL EXTREMISM IN THE UNITED STATES*

Although research on terrorism has grown rapidly in recent years, few scholars have applied criminological theories to the analysis of individual‐level political extremism. Instead, researchers focused on radicalization have drawn primarily from political science and psychology and have overwhelmingly concentrated on violent extremists, leaving little variation in the dependent variable. With the use of a newly available data set, we test whether variables derived from prominent criminological theories are helpful in distinguishing between nonviolent and violent extremists. The results show that variables related to social control (lack of stable employment), social learning (radical peers), psychological perspectives (history of mental illness), and criminal record all have significant effects on participation in violent political extremism and are robust across multiple techniques for imputing missing data. At the same time, other common indicators of social control (e.g., education and marital status) and social learning perspectives (e.g., radical family members) were not significant in the multivariate models. We argue that terrorism research would benefit from including criminology insights and by considering political radicalization as a dynamic, evolving process, much as life‐course criminology treats more common forms of crime.     

Microscopical discrimination of human head hairs sharing a mitochondrial haplogroup

In forensic analyses, determining the level of consensus among examiners for hair comparison conclusions and ancestry identifications is important for assessing the scientific validity of microscopical hair examinations. Here, we present data from an interlaboratory study on the accuracy of microscopical hair comparisons among a subset of experienced hair examiners currently analyzing hair in forensic laboratories across the United States. We examined how well microscopical analysis of hair can reliably be used to differentiate hair samples, many of which were macroscopically similar. Using cut hair samples, many sharing similar macroscopic and microscopic features, collected from individuals who share the same mitochondrial haplogroup as an indication of genetic relatedness, we tested multiple aspects that could impact hair comparisons. This research tested the extent to which morphological features related to ancestry and hair length influence conclusions. Microscopical hair examinations yielded accurate assessments of inclusion/exclusion relative to the reference samples among 85% of the pairwise comparisons. We found shorter hairs had reduced levels of accuracy and hairs from populations examiners were not familiar with may have impacted their ability to resolve features. The reliability of ancestry determinations is not yet clear, but we found indications that the existing categories are only somewhat related to current ethnic and genetic variation. Our results provide support for the continued utility of microscopical comparison of hairs within forensic laboratories and to advocate for a combined analytical approach using both microscopical analysis and mtDNA data on all forensic analyses of hair.     

International Political Terrorism A Challenge for Comparative Research

International political terrorism poses special problems for researchers because of the kind of phenomenon it is. Being international, it occurs in many different sociopolitical and cultural contexts; and, being political, it has direct relevance to practical issues, most notably prevention and control. Comparative, interdisciplinary research which can bridge the gap between theory and practice is essential in dealing with the phenomenon. This paper looks at the special problems which international political terrorism poses for research. Problems related to defining the research problem, conducting the research, and applying the research findings are discussed in turn. Issues discussed include the role of the researcher, the definition of terrorism, data collection and information exchange, self-fulfilling prophecies, and generalizability of results.

A list of specific research strategies and topics pertinent to the study of international political terrorism is given to show the kinds of methods and models which researchers can be expected to encounter. Finally, in recognition of the fact that many research projects on international political terrorism will be funded by agencies interested in prevention and control, a specific section is devoted to analyzing different prevention and control strategies. Three conceptual models are examined: the war model, the criminal justice model, and the communications model. While all three generate fruitful avenues for research, the war model has been the most successful and the most widely applied, the criminal justice model has been the least successful, and the communications model has been the least applied. This condition reflects a narrow focus on short-term, incident-oriented, reactive strategies as opposed to long-term, preventive strategies focused on root causes. It is suggested that a comparative, interdisciplinary approach could generate fruitful new avenues within the communications model and a broader and potentially more profound understanding of the phenomenon of international political terrorism.     

The future of terrorism research: a review essay

This essay sets forth a research agenda to begin filling some key gaps in terrorism studies. Since the September 2001 Al Qaeda attacks against the World Trade Center towers and the Pentagon that claimed over 3000 lives, interest in terrorism research has increased. After these attacks, the United States and other governments prioritized the scientific study of the causes of and responses to terrorism. Importantly though, our review of the terrorism literature demonstrates that despite this progress, intriguing questions remain underexplored or altogether unexplored. This essay identifies four gaps in terrorism studies: (1) employing non-terrorist comparison groups, (2) broadening the dependent variable (focus of study), (3) exploring exceptions/anomalies to “established” findings, and (4) engaging measurement issues. We discuss these issues and outline a research agenda that could begin to fill these gaps.     

Gender Differences in Worry About a Terrorist Attack: A Cross-National Examination of Individual- and National-Level Factors

Prior research has found gender to be associated with worry about crime and terrorism. We used World Values Survey data to assess gender differences in worry about terrorism across 54 nations. Analyses also examined the influence of individual- and national-level factors. Women were significantly more worried about terrorism in 22 of the 54 nations. Men in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and New Zealand were significantly more worried about terrorism than women. Individuals were more likely to worry about terrorism as the nation’s average mortality count in terrorist incidents increased. Policy implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

Terrorism Risk Forecasting by Ideology

The purpose of the present study is to produce foresights on terrorism. For the first time in the literature, we test the predictive validity of risk terrain modeling to forecast terrorism. Because the relevant literature suggests that target selection and the places where terrorist attacks occur are related to a group’s strategies, we also investigate whether and how violent terrorist acts vary with respect to their surroundings in the same jurisdiction when the ideology is the point of comparison. Separatist and leftist terrorist groups committed 1152 violent terrorist acts between 2008 and 2012 in Istanbul, Turkey. Our analysis begins with a comparison of targets and risk factors by the ideology of the perpetrators for 857 separatist and 295 leftist terrorist incidents. After identifying high-risk locations, we test the predictive validity of risk terrain modeling. The study results showed that context and spatial influence—the risky areas of terrorism—vary by the nature of the ideology in the jurisdiction. Practical implications also are discussed.     

Exploring officer views of community policing in counterterrorism

Abstract

Recently there has been increased emphasis on actionable intelligence in counterterrorism. Building from the process-based model of regulation, police chiefs and scholars generally agree that community policing has promise in this regard. Yet, it is not clear the extent to which police officers concur. Since officers are in a position to implement community policing practices, it is important to understand variants in officer-level support. Using data collected from 741 officers in three departments, this project explores officer-level views of community policing’s utility to address terrorism and more common crimes. Overall, officers view community policing as appropriate to address both common crimes and terrorism. Results suggest that department-level policy itself is not the key driver of support. Rather, an officer’s own experience with community policing and support for the practice in general determine views on community policing in counterterrorism. Results also highlight the importance of comparative research across departments.     

LGBTQ-Affirming Policing: Tactics Generated by Law Enforcement Personnel

Law enforcement personnel (LEP) use a variety of tactics to perform their job duties. Although LEP often receive specialized training to work with ethnocultural minorities and are sometimes trained to work with lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) citizens, a clear articulation of LGBTQ-affirming police tactics has not yet been established. Using qualitative content analysis and a multiple case study approach, this project identified a variety of tactics generated by LEP in written surveys and group discussion of scenarios involving LGBTQ citizens. Results showed that across all scenarios, LEP were able to generate LGBTQ-affirming tactics, including both typical police procedures, as well as approaches specific to LGBTQ citizens. Non LGBTQ-affirming tactics typically reflected reluctance to adapt general procedures to meet the needs of LGBTQ citizens. The results of this study support the use of group-based scenario training to help LEP identify and adopt LGBTQ-affirming approaches. This study is significant because it represents a first step toward identifying best practices for LGBTQ-affirming police tactics.     

Analyzing Criminal Trajectory Profiles: Bridging Multilevel and Group-based Approaches Using Growth Mixture Modeling

Over the last 25 years, a life-course perspective on criminal behavior has assumed increasing prominence in the literature. This theoretical development has been accompanied by changes in the statistical models used to analyze criminological data. There are two main statistical modeling techniques currently used to model longitudinal data. These are growth curve models and latent class growth models, also known as group-based trajectory models. Using the well known Cambridge data and the Philadelphia cohort study, this article compares the two “classical” models—conventional growth curve model and group-based trajectory models. In addition, two growth mixture models are introduced that bridge the gap between conventional growth models and group-based trajectory models. For the Cambridge data, the different mixture models yield quite consistent inferences regarding the nature of the underlying trajectories of convictions. For the Philadelphia cohort study, the statistical indicators give stronger guidance on relative model fit. The main goals of this article are to contribute to the discussion about different modeling techniques for analyzing data from a life-course perspective and to provide a concrete step-by-step illustration of such an analysis and model checking.

Mapping an agenda for the study of youth sexual aggression in Europe: assessment,principles of good practice,and the multilevel analysis of risk factors

ABSTRACT

Sexual aggression is a serious threat to young people's sexual health in Europe, but establishing the exact scale of the problem has been hampered by a variety of conceptual and methodological problems. This article presents a framework for studying youth sexual aggression that addresses both prevalence and risk factors of victimisation and perpetration. It proposes a research tool to comprehensively assess the perpetration of, and victimisation by, sexual aggression that captures different coercive strategies, sexual acts, victim–perpetrator relations, and gender constellations. The instrument is rooted in a clear conceptual definition of sexual aggression and was pilot-tested in 10 countries of the European Union (EU). Furthermore, a list of good practice criteria is proposed to promote the quality and comparability of research on youth sexual aggression in Europe. A multilevel approach combining individual-level and country-level predictors of sexual aggression is outlined and illustrated with data from the pilot study in 10 countries.