Effect of foreign direct investment,remittances, and foreign aid on economic growth: Evidence from two emerging South Asian economies

This paper analyzes the effect of foreign direct investment, remittances, and official development assistance on economic growth in India and Sri Lanka. The study uses annual time series data of both countries for the period 1980–2016. In order to find the short‐run and long‐run relationship among the variables, we use Granger causality test and vector error correction model. We also carry out a vector decomposition analysis to predict the forecast variance error of the future periods and impulse response function to analyze the effect of shocks in the independent variables on that of the dependent variable. Our results indicate that foreign direct investment and remittances have a significant impact on economic growth in India, whereas in Sri Lanka, foreign aid and remittances play an important role in enhancing economic growth.     

Institutional quality and economic growth: Evidence from South-Asian countries

The current study investigates the relationship between institutional quality and economic growth, focusing on South-Asian countries entailing Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, from 2002 to 2018. The data are analysed using the dynamic heterogeneous panel (panel autoregressive distributed lag [ARDL] model) approach, specifically the dynamic fixed effect (DFE), mean group (MG), and pooled mean group (PMG). Based on the findings, the three governance indicators, namely corruption control, accountability, and the rule of law, positively and significantly affect economic growth. All the nations have consistent long-run estimates but varied short-run estimates and adjustment speed for the long-term equilibrium. This is due to governance volatility that is evident in all the nations. This article offers both practical and theoretical contributions. This article contributes to the institutional quality and economic growth literature from a theoretical perspective from the South-Asian perspective. From a practical perspective, the study findings are significant for policymakers, particularly those from the countries that demonstrate major fiscal and external imbalance due to war and terrorism, low oil prices and weak trade. Hence, there is a pressing need to address economic growth issues instigated by the policymakers' negligence to ensure appropriate governance and macroeconomic management. Regulators can improve economic growth through national and regional image building by developing a stable economic and political landscape and maintaining macroeconomic stability by improving the institutional quality indicators. There is evidence that institutional quality improvement leads to better economic growth.     

Federalism and Ethnic Conflict in Sri Lanka

A transfer of central governmental authority to regional governmentsis being tried in Sri Lanka in an attempt to resolve ethnicconflict. In November 1987, Sri Lanka established a system ofprovincial councils. This system will allow regional autonomyin the country's nine provinces. It is hoped that this councilsystem will resolve complaints by the nation's largest ethnicminority, the Sri Lanka Tamils. The system falls short of beinga true federal arrangement, however, because it leaves extensivepower in the hands of the president and the national legislature.In addition, the plan is opposed by important groups in thesociety. The more militant Sri Lanka Tamil leaders have opposedthe plan because it transfers too little power to the councils.Also, long-standing fears among the nation's largest ethnicgroup, the Sinhalese, have generated a violent response frommilitant members of this ethnic group. The government and moderateSri Lanka Tamil leaders are now seeking to implement the provincialcouncil system.     

Immigrant protests in Toronto: diaspora and Sri Lanka's civil war

As Sri Lanka's civil war escalated in the spring of 2009, protests led by the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora in Toronto appealed for an immediate ceasefire agreement between the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Held simultaneously in Chennai, London, and Oslo, the protests called for an end to the hostilities in Sri Lanka as well as recognition of the legitimacy of Tamil Eelam, a separate nation state for Tamils in Sri Lanka. Based on interviews and media coverage in Toronto, this article investigates how these ‘immigrant protests’ constituted ‘transnational acts of citizenship’. I examine the Toronto protests through three acts in the protest that challenged the exclusions of national citizenship by moving from Toronto's streets, statist discourses of Canadian citizenship, and the violence of war in Sri Lanka. Although these transnational acts of citizenship were rendered inaudible in public culture, the article concludes by exploring the possibilities of citizenship and belonging in the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora following the defeat of the LTTE.     

The Limits of Liberal Peacebuilding? International Engagement in the Sri Lankan Peace Process

Abstract

This essay explores international engagement in the Sri Lankan peace process between 2002 and 2008. The internationalization of peacebuilding in Sri Lanka is analysed as part of a broader international shift towards a model of ‘liberal peacebuilding’, which involves the simultaneous pursuit of conflict resolution, liberal democracy and market sovereignty. The essay provides a detailed and disaggregated analysis of the various exporters, importers and resisters of liberal peacebuilding, with a particular focus on the contrasting ways in which the United National Front (UNF) and the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) regimes engaged with international actors. It is argued that an analysis of the Sri Lankan case provides a corrective to some of the core assumptions contained in much of the literature on liberal peacebuilding. Rather than viewing liberal peacebuilding as simply an hegemonic enterprise foisted upon countries emerging from conflict, the essay explores the ways in which peacebuilding is mediated through, and translated and instrumentalized by, multiple actors with competing interests – consequently liberal peacebuilding frequently looks different when it ‘hits the ground’ and may, as in the Sri Lanka case, lead to decidedly illiberal outcomes. The essay concludes by exploring the theoretical and policy implications of a more nuanced understanding of liberal peacebuilding. It is argued that rather than blaming the failure of the project on deficiencies in its execution and the recalcitrance of the people involved, there is a need to look at defects in the project itself and to explore alternatives to the current model of liberal peacebuilding.     

Administrative conflict and decentralization: The case of Sri Lanka

Decentralization involves changes in administrative structures which induce conflict as vested interests are affected. Such problems have occurred in Sri Lanka. The responses of the different interests involved in development administration to decentralization are examined. A number of propositions concerning group conflict are applied to the implementation of decentralized development policies in Sri Lanka. Decentralization has restructured power among the Kachcheri officials, Members of Parliament and departmental officers. Consequent conflicts within the administration have led to increased problems in the completion of projects. Power struggles could have been avoided by synchronizing political and administrative decentralization and by making the division of power within the bureaucracy explicit.     

War and other insecurities in East Asia: what the security studies field does and does not tell us

Abstract

Terrorism has become a challenge to which Southeast Asian studies need to respond. This article scrutinizes political and economic developments in regard to democracy and poverty in Southeast Asia, in particular the degree of change, and studies their influence on terrorism. The main question being asked here is whether external support for political and economic development could contribute to the Southeast Asian battle against terrorism. At the same time, this article seeks ways in which the international community, especially Europe, could support and participate in Southeast Asian efforts to address the root causes of terrorism. Finally, a global quantitative analysis of relevant factors is undertaken, and global conclusions are related to the developments and processes observed in Southeast Asia, especially in Indonesia. On the basis of the analysis, it can be established that some of the root causes of terrorism are indeed related to poverty and the lack of democracy. While it is clear that terrorist strategies to address these grievances by targeting innocent civilians are unacceptable, grievances related to poverty and the lack of democracy are perfectly legitimate. It seems that in order to inhibit individual terrorist motivations, democratization of political systems would do some good. However, the main economic and political grievances that are associated with the growth of terrorism are related to transnational communities. Thus, while Southeast Asian countries should continue to develop and democratize, they should also work together with the international community to democratize the international structures of governance.     

Risk Sensitivity and Terrorism

One enduring question about terrorism is why individuals choose to join terrorist groups. Past studies have shown that terrorists are not always poor, and they can in fact come from more privileged groups in society. Risk sensitivity and prospect theory are approaches that can help explain some of the anomalies. They suggest that two types of group are likely to supply members for terrorist organizations in disproportionate numbers. One group consists of those who face a loss of status or position due to ongoing changes in society. A second group consists of those who have an opportunity to gain a major advance in status or position. Both groups are thus more likely or more willing to take risks such as joining dissident terrorists – either to maintain their position or to improve it. An analysis of the situation of Palestinian nationalists, nationalists in Northern Ireland and the Tamils in Sri Lanka provides support for the idea that sensitivity to risk can be an important factor in explaining the willingness of individuals to join terrorist groups.     

What are the strategic and economic implications for South Asia of China's Maritime Silk Road initiative?

This article focuses on South Asia's role in China's Maritime Silk Road (MSR) initiative. Given the saliency of this MSR enterprise as part of ChinesePresident Xi Jinping’s “One-Belt-One-Road” strategy, how this ambitious scheme impacts China’s relations with South Asian states along the MSR’s route, i.e. India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh, merits investigation. The fate of the MSR will be determined by China’s relations with these states, since South Asia is in the middle of major sea-lanes between East/Southeast Asia and Middle East/Europe. The study examines the intentions and executions of China’s MSR projects in South Asia, evaluates the political and economic calculations of participating in the MSR for regional states, and identifies actions taken by them that can decide the initiative’s success. Politically, reactions of South Asian states to the MSR are explained as: fear of expanding Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean for India; and attempts by which Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh use China to counteract possible domination by India. Economically, two MSR pathways for South Asian states are analyzed: increases in Chinese infrastructure investments; and expansion in South Asia-China trade; both of which are reducible by loans owed to China, or “strings”/conditions attached.     

Waiting for privatization in developing countries: Towards the integration of economic and non-economic explanations

The intention of this paper is to examine the political and administrative limits on the effective implementation of privatization in developing countries and so to present a challenge to the view that slow progress is primarily attributable to economic constraints. After examining these economic aspects, the paper provides an explanatory framework which incorporates those political and administrative processes central to an understanding of what happens to state economic policies in practice. The significance of these processes is demonstrated by drawing on research material from India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Sri Lanka. The conclusion drawn is that responses to pressures for economic reform will be determined, not so much by economic criteria as by the political and bureaucratic resources available to decision makers. Since policy processes in developing countries show considerable variety it is likely that there will be substantial variations in the practical achievement of privatization objectives.     

The Myth of the Failed State and the War on Terror: A Challenge to the Conventional Wisdom

Abstract

A central hypothesis in the articulated rationale inspiring the war on terror suggests that failed states play a key role in the international terrorist nexus and require external intervention and guided democratization. This logic is based on two related premises; first that there is a direct link between failed states and international terrorism, second that democratic governance reduces the recourse to terrorism. This article suggests that there is no causal link between failed states and international terrorism and that the asserted ability of democratic governance to catalyze a reduction in terrorism is exaggerated if not wholly inaccurate.     

测量国债规模的模型阐释——基于国债功能的变迁

采用经济学规范研究方法,沿袭了模型阐释国债规模测量的主流研究路径--当前价值的借款约束模型和国债自然规模模型,从宏观和微观、供给与需求的角度,剖析了决定一国国债规模的关键要素.关注了不同模型下的均衡结果,获得了国债功能变迁下测量国债规模的组合模型.研究表明,在制度变迁等外部因素影响下,国债功能有显著的变化.国债功能的变迁是国债规模波动的主要原因之一.理论上,现今的国债规模测量存在短期均衡和长期均衡交替呈现的基本特征.而在动态分析框架下,国债规模的测量受到宏观和微观因素的共同影响.研究对理论模型结果进行了操作性解释,为实证研究搭建了必要的实施框架.研究认为,进一步地探寻测量国债规模组合模型的微观基础,是将来研究的主要方向.     

Electoral competition and minority alienation in a plurality system: Sri Lanka 1947–77

Till recently, Sri Lanka was distinctive amongst the less developed countries for having a parliamentary democracy based on regular and fair competitive elections. The present article analyses the long-term impact that the plurality system of elections had on the consolidation of political alignments and cleavages in Sri Lanka in its post-independence period. The study finds that the very success of the plurality system in encouraging popular participation, bi-polar competition, political cohesion and stability contributed to engendering their unacceptable extremes in Sri Lanka's resource-scarce context. In the longer run, the increasing radicalization of the electorate, acute party competition for control of the state, ethnic sectarianism, and absolute parliamentary majorities served to undermine the democratic aspects of the system.     

The Dismissal of Prime Ministers in the Asian Commonwealth: Comparing Democratic Deconsolidation in Malaysia and Sri Lanka

This article comparatively analyses processes of democratic deconsolidation in the Asian Commonwealth states of Malaysia and Sri Lanka by examining two recent constitutional crises in which the head of state dismissed, or attempted to dismiss, the serving prime minister during a parliamentary term. These episodes brought to a close fledgling reform movements that had obtained historic electoral mandates in both countries. The article discusses the Westminster-derived constitutional provisions concerning government formation as well as the distinctive features of political culture that animate those formal frameworks in the two countries. It is argued that while Malaysia and Sri Lanka possess the formal institutions of liberal democracy that notionally enable both pluralistic democracy and greater democratisation, their political cultures still have sufficient potency to be a counteracting force against the deeper consolidation of constitutional democracy. Democratisation therefore remains a work in progress in both countries.     

Misreading the Post-tsunami Political Landscape in Sri Lanka: The Myth of Humanitarian Space

The 2004 tsunami is one of several recent high profile natural disasters that raise important questions about ‘disaster geopolitics’ or the relationship between humanitarian assistance for victims of natural disasters and the stabilisation of political spaces. In Sri Lanka, it was thought that a ‘silver lining’ would result from the collaborative effort on behalf of victims of the tsunami by the government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, belligerents in a decades-old war. Ultimately, however, the contest over tsunami aid deepened the rift between the two sides. This paper considers this misreading of the post-tsunami political landscape in Sri Lanka by examining two key spatial assumptions contained in popular humanitarian discourses: that humanitarian space can be identified, represented and maintained separately from political space, and that humanitarian relations are confined to the places where a disaster has occurred and chiefly serve its victims. Several key events are highlighted in the paper including the curtailed visit of the UN Secretary General in January 2005 and the failure of the Post-tsunami Operational Management Structure, a mechanism designed to allow both parties to the conflict to distribute aid. The paper concludes with a discussion on the difficulties of setting politics aside even during times of humanitarian crisis.     

The politics of economic adjustment policy in Argentina,Brazil, and Mexico: Experiences in the 1980s and challenges for the future

During the debt crisis of the 1980s, new democratic governments in Argentina and Brazil experimented with heterodox approaches to economic stabilization, whereas Mexico's dominant party regime adopted a far more orthodox line of adjustment. None of these approaches had led to a sustained recovery by the end of the decade. Difference in policy choices are attributable to goals and beliefs of top decisionmaking officials and to the way the institutional features of their respective political regimes structured time horizons and vulnerability to domestic distributive pressures. Converging economic outcomes are attributable to underlying structural problems that cut across these distinctions: political constraints on the management of fiscal deficits, and international power asymmetries impeding significant reductions in the external debt burden.     

Does public debt matter for human capital development? Evidence from Nigeria

An inquiry into the impact of external and domestic borrowings is considered timely for Nigeria, given the growing public debt profile amid deteriorating human capital development. Using data from 1990 to 2021, the study estimates the effects of domestic and external debts on Nigeria's human capital development. The study employed the fully modified ordinary least squares and canonical cointegration regression as the main estimation technique and the robustness check, respectively. The study discovered that domestic and external debt, economic growth and debt servicing exert positive and significant influence on human capital development in Nigeria while environmental pollution has an inverse and significant impact on human capital development in Nigeria. Premised on the outcomes, policy suggestions aimed at enhancing human capital development in Nigeria have been put forward.     

Young People's Everyday Politics in Post-conflict Sri Lanka

Since the civil war ended in 2009, political spaces in eastern Sri Lanka have remained restricted. The authors examine how young people in areas formerly controlled by or with the presence of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) engage in politics by making safe spaces. A framework for understanding youth politics is presented in order to explain how youths' political spaces are found at the interface of two axes: the axis between political presence and political involvement; and the axis between voiceless politics and vocal politics. Through locating young people's perspectives, practices and realities in relation to these axes, the authors find that war-affected youths in eastern Sri Lanka are stuck in their everyday politics, which prevents their full political presence and involvement. Repolitisation is needed to mobilise youths' political agency.     

Political institutions and debt crises

This paper shows that political institutions matter in explaining defaults on external and domestic debt obligations. We explore a large number of political and macroeconomic variables using a non-parametric technique to predict safety from default. The advantage of this technique is that it is able to identify patterns in the data that are not captured in standard probit analysis. We find that political factors matter, and do so in different ways for democratic and non-democratic regimes, and for domestic and external debt. In democracies, a parliamentary system or sufficient checks and balances almost guarantee the absence of default on external debt when economic fundamentals or liquidity are sufficiently strong. In dictatorships, high stability and tenure play a similar role for default on domestic debt.     

Democracy in crisis? The declining support for national democracy in European countries, 2007–2011

The Great Recession that started in 2007/2008 has been the worst economic downturn since the crisis of the 1930s in Europe. It led to a major sovereign debt crisis, which is arguably the biggest challenge for the European Union (EU) and its common currency. Not since the 1950s have advanced democracies experienced such a dramatic external imposition of austerity and structural reform policies through inter‐ or supranational organisations such as the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or as implicitly requested by international financial markets. Did this massive interference with the room for maneuver of parliaments and governments in many countries erode support for national democracy in the crisis since 2007? Did citizens realise that their national democratic institutions were no longer able to effectively decide on major economic and social policies, on economic and welfare state institutions? And did they react by concluding that this constrained democracy no longer merited further support? These are the questions guiding this article, which compares 26 EU countries in 2007–2011 and re‐analyses 78 national surveys. Aggregate data from these surveys is analysed in a time‐series cross‐section design to examine changes in democratic support at the country level. The hypotheses also are tested at the individual level by estimating a series of cross‐classified multilevel logistic regression models. Support for national democracy – operationalised as satisfaction with the way democracy works and as trust in parliament – declined dramatically during the crisis. This was caused both by international organisations and markets interfering with national democratic procedures and by the deteriorating situation of the national economy as perceived by individual citizens.