中美关系中的军事交流述评

本文在回顾中美军事交流历史的基础上分析了这一交流的特点和动因,并试图揭示它在两国关系中的地位与作用.笔者认为,两军交流取决于不同战略背景下两国关系的本质."9·11"事件并未改变冷战结束以来两国关系的本质,维持和推动这种交流对于两国关系以及地区乃至世界和平来说仍然是不可或缺的有利因素.     

Politics and Threat Perception: Explaining Pakistani Military Strategy on the North West Frontier

Abstract

Analysts and policymakers agree that the Pakistani military has engaged in selective repression of and collusion with armed groups. Yet beyond this general observation, fine-grained theory and evidence do not exist to systematically explain patterns of military strategy across groups and over time. This paper provides a theoretical framework for explaining regime perceptions of armed groups and the strategies state security managers pursue toward different types of groups. It then probes this framework using a combination of new medium-N data on military offensives, peace deals, and state–group alliances in Pakistan’s North West and four comparative case studies from North and South Waziristan. We argue that the Pakistani military—the key state institution in this context—has assigned armed groups to different political roles reflecting both their ideological affinity with the military and the operational benefits they can provide to the army. This mixture of instrumental and ideological motivations has created a complex blend of regime threat perceptions and state–group interactions across space and time. A clearer understanding of how the military views Pakistan’s armed political landscape can inform policy debates about the nature of Pakistani counterinsurgency, as well as broader theoretical debates about order and violence.     

Innovation or Inertia: The U.S. Military and the Learning of Counterinsurgency

Following its encounter with insurgent violence in Iraq, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has sought to improve the U.S. military's ability to conduct counterinsurgency. This effort suggests a potential turning-point in the history of the U.S. military, which has traditionally devoted its attention and resources to “high-intensity” or “conventional” combat. Given this institutional culture, what are now the prospects of the U.S. military ‘learning counterinsurgency’? In many ways, the ongoing reorientation is promising and targeted, informed directly by the U.S. campaign in Iraq. At the same time, Pentagon priorities still reveal a remarkable resistance to change, and this in spite of the radically altered strategic environment of the War on Terror. Given this intransigence - and the eventual fall-out from the troubled Iraq campaign - the ongoing learning of counterinsurgency might very well fail to produce the type of deep-rooted change needed to truly transform the U.S. military.     

利益边疆:国家主权的发展性内涵

全球化给人类社会带来了全方位的冲击。在自然经济条件下 ,国家和人类社会对于自身利益的认识是建立在地理概念基础之上的。只有当人类大范围频繁交往逐渐形成一种制度和潮流时 ,当人类的利益不仅仅在自己所属范围内存在时 ,利益边疆才会产生。在全球化时代 ,维护领土边疆是生存意义上的主权利益 ,而维护国家的利益边疆则是发展意义上的国家主权利益。我们需要认清这一历史性的重大变化 ,以确立一种具有发展性内涵的国家主权观。     

中俄边境地区铁路合作与东北亚区域经济发展

中俄边境铁路在中俄两国的经济贸易发展中发挥着至关重要的作用。近年来,中俄两国在边境铁路建设方面成绩显著,双方铁路运输领域的合作也为两国经济贸易的发展做出了突出贡献,铁路口岸运量持续大幅度增长,在促进中国东北及俄罗斯远东地区经济发展的同时,也对东北亚区域一体化进程起了积极的推动作用,促进了东北亚地区整体经济的发展。建立以中俄边境铁路为中心的东北亚铁路交通合作体制,是东北亚区域经济发展的必然要求,这必将有助于打破区域交通运输体系中存在的“瓶颈”,从而推动东北亚国家和地区的共同繁荣。     

黑瞎子岛建设自由贸易区的构想与对策

发展对外贸易、促进跨境区域合作是现阶段东北亚区域经济合作的关键拉动因素。为了切实推进黑瞎子岛保税区建设规划,中央政府应给予更加优惠的政策支持,实施境内关外监管模式,从而降低贸易壁垒,提高贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应,进一步推动中俄国际经贸发展,并在远期将黑瞎子岛建成为商品自由流通、资本自由流动、货币自由兑换、人员自由进出的自由贸易区,加速东北亚国际区域经济合作与发展。     

从黑龙江省对俄边贸谈推进对俄边贸科技合作

黑龙江省是我国对俄边贸大省。对俄边贸在全省乃至全国都占有举足轻重的地位。我省对俄边贸在取得突破、快速发展的同时,也有一些亟待解决的问题。我们应立足于黑龙江省对俄经贸科技合作的优势与基础,采取措施,抢抓机遇,促进我省对俄边贸科技合作更快发展。     

“俄罗斯东部发展与中国、蒙古边境合作”会议探析

2009年5月21日,俄总统梅德韦杰夫召开了“俄罗斯东部发展与中国、蒙古边境合作”会议,专门研究和部署了俄罗斯东部地区进一步发展与中国边境地区合作的任务。他在开幕式上发表了重要讲话,全面阐述了俄罗斯东部发展与中国边境地区经贸合作的优势、潜力、基本方向和前景。为保障和推进边境地区的合作,俄罗斯有关方面还制定了《边境地区合作法》,提出了今后发展与中国边境合作的25条对策建议。     

中俄边境贸易制约因素浅析

中俄边境贸易是中俄经贸合作的重要方式之一。中俄边境贸易经过改革开放以来近三十年的发展,规模扩大,层次升级,拉动了两国边境地区的经济发展。中俄边境贸易历经了一些曲折,但总体发展平稳。中俄边境贸易中长期存在一些制度性、结构性制约因素。中方应该整合各种有利条件,克服阻碍,推动中俄边境贸易迈上新台阶。     

从俄新版《军事学说》看其军事理论的新变化

军事学说作为俄罗斯军事思想的集中体现,代表着俄最高当局最新的军事政策的动向。俄新版《军事学说》的出台,标志着俄军事理论发生了新的重大变化。从发展看,在短期内俄军事理论总体框架难有大的变化。