Silence is not golden: U.S. government efforts to establish national information security strategies

A new threat to national security has been found: electronic information warfare (EIW). It is the hottest (and most overhyped) issue inside the Beltway and encompasses everything from encryption to technology transfer, including both legitimate battlefield applications and ominous defense measures to protect the U.S. economy and culture.     

Measuring U.S. innovative activity: business data at the U.S. Census Bureau

Innovation is seen as a source of strength and vitality in the U.S. economy. Better measures of innovative activity—including but not limited to innovation alone—could improve what we know about the sources of productivity and economic growth. The U.S. Census Bureau collects data on some measures of innovative activity that research shows affect economic performance. But understanding how the effects work requires more than just measures of innovative activity. It also requires solid statistical information about core measures of the economy so we can rule out the possibility that a measure of innovative activity merely proxies for something omitted from or measured poorly in the core data. Gaps in core measures can be filled by better integrating existing data and by more structured collections of new data. Versions of this paper were presented at the NSF/SRS Workshop, Advancing Measures of Innovation: Knowledge Flows, Business Metrics, and Measurement Strategies, Arlington VA, June 6–7, 2006, and circulated to the Advisory Committee on Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century Economy, Economics and Statistics Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. This paper is unofficial and thus has not undergone the review accorded to official Census Bureau publications. Lucia Foster, Ron Jarmin, Jeffrey Mayer, Thomas Mesenbourg, and Daniel Weinberg, and the editors made valuable comments. However, the views expressed in the paper are those of the author and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.     

New estimates of U.S. currency abroad,the domestic money supply and the unreported economy

Despite financial innovations that have created important new substitutes for cash usage, per capita holdings of U.S. currency amount to $2950. Yet American households and businesses admit to holding only 15% of the currency stock, leaving the whereabouts of 85% unknown. Some fraction of this unaccounted for currency is held abroad (the dollarization hypothesis) and some is held domestically undeclared, as a store of value and a medium of exchange for transactions involving the production and distribution of illegal goods and services, and for transactions earning income that is not reported to the IRS (the unreported economy hypothesis). We find that the percentage of U.S. currency currently held overseas is between 30 and 37% rather than the widely cited figure of 65%. This finding is based on the official Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is a proxy measure of the New York Federal Reserve’s (NYB) “confidential” data on wholesale currency shipments abroad. We recommend that the NYB data be aggregated so as to circumvent confidentiality concerns, and be made readily available to all researchers in order to shed greater light on the questions of how much U.S. currency is abroad and on the particular location of overseas U.S. dollars. The newly revised official estimates of overseas currency holdings are employed to determine the Federal Reserve’s seigniorage earnings from 1964–2010, which have provided a $2950. Yet American households and businesses admit to holding only 15% of the currency stock, leaving the whereabouts of 85% unknown. Some fraction of this unaccounted for currency is held abroad (the dollarization hypothesis) and some is held domestically undeclared, as a store of value and a medium of exchange for transactions involving the production and distribution of illegal goods and services, and for transactions earning income that is not reported to the IRS (the unreported economy hypothesis). We find that the percentage of U.S. currency currently held overseas is between 30 and 37% rather than the widely cited figure of 65%. This finding is based on the official Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is a proxy measure of the New York Federal Reserve’s (NYB) “confidential” data on wholesale currency shipments abroad. We recommend that the NYB data be aggregated so as to circumvent confidentiality concerns, and be made readily available to all researchers in order to shed greater light on the questions of how much U.S. currency is abroad and on the particular location of overseas U.S. dollars. The newly revised official estimates of overseas currency holdings are employed to determine the Federal Reserve’s seigniorage earnings from 1964–2010, which have provided a 287 billion windfall for U.S. taxpayers. Overseas currency stock data are also used to derive estimates of the domestically held stock of currency as well as narrow and broad measures of domestic monetary aggregates. These domestic monetary aggregates are believed to be better predictors of future economic activity than traditional monetary aggregates and are tested to determine their ability to predict fluctuations in real output and prices. Domestic cash holdings are finally used to estimate the size of the U.S. unreported economy as measured by the amount of income that is not properly reported to the IRS. By 2010, we estimate that legal and illegal source unreported income” is $1.9–$1.9–2.4 trillion, implying a “tax gap” in the range of $400–$400–540 billion. Currently, we estimate that 18–23% of total reportable income is not properly reported to the IRS.     

The problem of human trafficking in the U.S.: Public frames and policy responses

Nine years after the passage of federal anti-trafficking legislation in the United States, fewer incidents of trafficking have been identified than original estimates of the problem predicted. Some scholars and commentators suggest that changes in the public framing of the trafficking problem aimed at advancing particular agendas are to blame. Yet no studies to date had measured such a reframing process and its attendant consequences. Using a natural history of social problems model (Spector & Kitsuse, 1973) as the theoretical framework to examine the framing of trafficking, this study analyzed text from U.S. newspaper articles about human trafficking from 1990 to 2006. Findings suggest the public framing of human trafficking has changed over time corresponding with the adoption of policies focused on national security and the identification, apprehension, and criminal prosecution of trafficking perpetrators. Challenges following such definitional shifts are discussed.     

Human trafficking revisited: legal,enforcement and ethnographic narratives on sex trafficking to Western Europe

In this paper we focus on the ways ‘victims’ and ‘perpetrators’ are imagined in the narratives on women who have been trafficked to West Europe for sexual exploitation. Three specific domains: international/national law, local law enforcement and ethnographic academic perspective are particularly important as they strongly influence political reaction to trafficking and describe the phenomenon from the perspective of the individuals concerned. In our analysis, an explanation of the diversity of the perceptions in these three domains is provided.     

Justice Without Borders: Human Rights Cases in U.S. Courts

In 1980 the Second Circuit Court of Appeals broke with years of legal tradition and ruled that human rights victims could sue their oppressors in federal court—even if the alleged violations occurred outside the country. This court based the extension of its authority on a provision of the 1789 Judiciary Act now referred to as the Alien Tort Claims Act (ATCA). ATCA cases present a unique opportunity to study judicial behavior in the face of separation of powers interests, traditions of judicial restraint, sovereign immunity defenses, and an active internationalist movement to extend human rights guarantees worldwide. Combining legal analysis with quantitative methodology, I find that U.S. federal courts are slowly accepting an internationalist approach to human rights, and that interest groups are largely driving this transformation. Sovereignty concerns and judicial ideology are not conditioning case outcomes, but party resources and separation of powers issues are.     

Parricide: an empirical analysis of 24 years of U.S. data

Empirical analysis of homicides in which children have killed parents has been limited. The most comprehensive statistical analysis involving parents as victims was undertaken by Heide and used Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR) data for the 10-year period 1977 to 1986. This article provides an updated examination of characteristics of victims, offenders, and offenses in parricide incidents using SHR data for the 24-year period 1976 to 1999. The analysis proceeds in two stages. First, offense (homicide circumstances), victim (age, race), and offender (age, race, sex) correlates are reported. Second, juvenile involvement in incidents in which parents were killed is examined and a determination is made whether changes in youth involvement in parricide offenses are discernible over the 24-year period. The article concludes with a comparison of findings that emerged from 24 years of data with those from the earlier 10-year period and the discussion of the significance of these findings.     

Male and female child murderers: an empirical analysis of U.S. arrest data

Recent U.S. cases of murders by children below age 11 have captured national headlines. A review of the literature reveals that little is known about this population of juvenile homicide offenders (JHOs). Most studies on juvenile murderers have used small clinical samples, focused on adolescents, and concentrated on male offenders. Studies that have used Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR) data have found significant gender differences among juveniles below 18 years arrested for murder. This study investigated gender differences among 226 juvenile murderers ages 6 through 10 involved in single-victim incidents using bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques. Consistent with previous research, bivariate analyses revealed gender differences with respect to the type of weapon used, age of the victim, relationship to the victim, and circumstances of the crime. Logistic regression analysis identified female JHOs as more likely to use a knife, kill a family member, and kill a victim below age 5, when compared with male JHOs. From these findings, profiles of young male and female JHOs can be drawn. The article concludes with a discussion of the study's implications for prevention and treatment. The authors recommend that future research in gender differences among young children focus on examining psychological, neurological, and sociological variables not included in the SHR data set.     

Medical device reporting: manufacturer reporting, importer reporting, user facility reporting, distributor reporting. Food and Drug Administration, HHS. Final rule

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is amending its regulations governing reporting by manufacturers, importers, distributors and health care (user) facilities of adverse events related to medical devices. Amendments are being made to implement revisions to the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act) as amended by the Food and Drug Administration Modernization Act of 1997 (FDAMA).     

Clinical case management: a strategy to coordinate detection, reporting, and prosecution of elder abuse

Despite civil and criminal sanctions, elder abuse is a prevalent, underreported, and underprosecuted event in the United States. Traditional reporting legislation and common law remedies have had minimal effect on the incidence and prevalence of elder abuse. The epidemic nature of elder abuse is projected to increase exponentially as the elderly population grows disproportionately over the next several decades. The fragmented system of detecting, reporting, and prosecuting this abuse across a wide range of medical and legal settings creates a poor structure to effectively allow a potentially abused patient to have his/her abuse circumstance communicated to the relevant parties to protect the patient, have his/her situation reported and investigated, and, if necessary, have the perpetrator brought to justice. Emergency rooms and other facilities where elders present for care should be staffed by clinically trained persons who have familiarity interacting with patients and providers across settings of care, and who are trained to detect and report abuse. Nursing case managers fill this role well because they are able to coordinate efforts among acute and long-term care facilities while also being able to supply patients with legal and clinical information about elder abuse. In addition they may support prosecution efforts through their clinical observations and expertise. Hence, clinical case managers are able to coordinate efforts lacking in the current system to effectively evaluate, report, protect, and arrange for relevant services for the patient. Through clinical and special training in elder abuse, nursing case managers can provide support to prosecution efforts against the perpetrators of this most egregious crime.     

The growing importance of Ukraine as a transit country for heroin trafficking: U.S.-Ukraine research partnership

This research was funded by the U.S.-Ukraine Research Partnership project, which began in November of 1999 when an agreement was signed between the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) and the Ukrainian Academy of Law Sciences (UALS). This partnership program was an integral part of the Gore-Kuchma Binational Commission, established in September 1996 to solidify the close ties between Ukraine and the United States. The increasingly global character of crime has created a mutual incentive for cooperation between the United States and Ukraine. In June of 1999, requests for proposals in the United States and Ukraine were concurrently announced by both NIJ and UALS. The proposals were to address the following crime areas: organized crime, corruption, drug trafficking, human trafficking, and economic crimes. The proposals were competitively reviewed by an expert working-group made up of both U.S. and Ukrainian representatives. The result was five U.S.-Ukrainian research teams, composed of twenty-two Ukrainian and five U.S. members. The size of each individual U.S.-Ukrainian team ranged from ten to three researchers. These teams met for the first time in November 1999 at a “kick-off” conference in Kiev, Ukraine. The greatest accomplishment of the conference was that researchers began the process of overcoming communication barriers and divergent methodological approaches to formulate a joint plan for their research. For this research, Layne worked with two Ukrainian research partners to jointly develop this paper. Khruppa was responsible for collecting Ukrainian data for the report and Muzyka supplied legislative expertise and background. Layne traveled to Ukraine (Kyiv and Kharkiv) four times over the course of two years and her Ukrainian counterparts came to the United States once. It was a challenge to collaborate across distance and language barriers, but a warm, collegial relationship developed and was maintained despite these obstacles.     

Technology transfer: Water purification,U.S. Army to the civilian community

The Logistics Support Laboratory at the Belvoir Research and Development Center is responsible for the development of water purification equipment for the field Army. Developing water purification systems for military use has led to technological breakthroughs which have benefitted the civilian community. Two examples are the evaluation of the Army's ERDLator for the decontamination of water polluted with asbestos fibers, and design of a plant for the soluble-sulfide precipitation of heavy metals from industrial wastewater.     

Medical device reporting: manufacturer reporting, importer reporting, user facility reporting, and distributor reporting--FDA. Direct final rule

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is amending its regulations governing reporting by manufacturers, importers, distributors, and health care (user) facilities of adverse events related to medical devices. Amendments are being made to implement revisions to the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act) as amended by the Food and Drug Administration Modernization Act of 1997 (FDAMA). FDA is publishing these amendments in accordance with its direct final rule procedures. Elsewhere in this issue of the Federal Register, FDA is publishing a companion proposed rule under FDA's usual procedures for notice and comment to provide a procedural framework to finalize the rule in the event the agency receives a significant adverse comment and withdraws this direct final rule.     

Quantitative indices for anti-human trafficking policies: based on reports of the U.S. State Department and the Council of Europe

Quantitative ratings of policies of national governments are an important tool for the monitoring of compliance with international standards in many domains. In this article we present a global index of anti-human trafficking policies developed by a research consortium using the TIP country reports of the U.S. State Department (the 3P index) and an index based on the reports of the monitoring body of the Council of Europe Convention against Human Trafficking (GRETA). Although the global 3P index gives more favorable ratings to most European countries than the GRETA-based index, a moderately strong correlation was found between the two indices. This is an encouraging result lending support to the validity of the assessments of both monitoring mechanisms as well as to their transformation into quantitative scores. We also demonstrate that the detailed GRETA-based index can be used to identify best practices in anti-trafficking policies and specific areas where these policies are most in need of improvement, e.g. legal aid and compensation for victims. Our analyses of the relationships between the various items of the index revealed positive correlations between the existence of units of specialized prosecutors and the numbers of convictions of traffickers. Our paper, then, demonstrates the potential of quantitative indices of counter human trafficking policies as tools for both effective monitoring of the implementation of international standards and for analytical purposes.     

美国、欧盟、亚洲各国专利代理制度现状及发展研究

专利制度是激励社会创新、鼓励社会成员发明创造的最有效制度之一。随着国家和企业知识产权战略的发展完善,提供知识产权中介服务的专利律师和专利代理人的数量将会增加。本文着眼于世界发达国家的现行专利中介服务体系,通过比较研究,找准差距,看清问题,在充分借鉴外国经验的基础上,立足本国现实,提出可行的改进措施,提高我国专利中介服务的水平和能力,建立我国高效、协调的专利中介服务体系。     

Institutional responses to unemployment: A comparison of U.S. trends, 1948–1985

Previous studies that consistently find a direct effect of unemployment on imprisonment fail to consider other state policies that may be related both to unemployment and imprisonment. This ommission potentially biases in unknown ways the estimated effect of unemployment. This study uses postwar U.S. time series data to examine how the effects of unemployment on imprisonment are influenced by mental institutionalization, military enlistments and welfare rolls. No evidence of trade-offs in social control policies can be detected in these data, thus supporting the previous findings that unemployment directly affects prison admissions.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 39th Annual Meeting of the American Criminological Society, Montreal, November 12, 1987.