The Confluence of Domestic and International Interests: U.S. Policy Toward Cuba, 1998–2001

This article examines the confluence of forces at work to shape U.S. policy toward Cuba since the late 1990s. Our approach examines four key factors involved in policymaking toward Cuba in this period: (1) the entry of new interest groups into the Cuba policy process and an "entrepreneurial" Congress; (2) the executive's constitutionally based interests; (3) bureaucratic interests; and (4) pressure from outside the United States. We examine U.S.–Cuba policy by describing each determinant in isolation and then by looking at the dynamic interaction among them, showing how they are linked together. In doing so, we argue that an analysis including multiple factors better explains U.S. policy toward Cuba than one that focuses on a single factor such as the power of the Cuban-American community.     

美国强大的原因及发展趋势

美国强大的原因可以从势、道、制、术、器与士（即国际格局与国际力量对比、美国的意识形态与核心价值体系、政治经济与社会制度、科技与战略政策制定、经济与军事硬实力、人才培养与储备机制等方面）进行分析。由于新兴国家崛起,美国单极体系已经终结,美国霸权相对削弱,但是美国仍将在相当长的一段时间之内维持“一超”的地位。从劳动生产率、基础科研实力及研发投入、高等教育体系、外资投资环境、人口结构以及新兴产业等因素考察,美国经济长远来看仍具有较大的相对优势。未来美国霸权依然存在,美国二战后所确立的以“结构自由主义”为特征的国际秩序是美国霸权能够持久的最重要的基础,也是二战后西方国家之间的关系能够超越“零和”博弈格局的重要原因。美国对华战略并非遏制,而是“对冲/两面下注”。中美之间存在超越历史上传统大国“零和”博弈的可能,中国领导人提出建立中美新型大国关系的建议反映了这种战略远见。     

Global Debate and the Limits of the Bush Doctrine

The "Bush Doctrine" asserting the right to preemptively attack states that support or harbor terrorists and pursue weapons of mass destruction (WMD) has bitterly divided world opinion. Many seemingly long-settled questions of international politics, especially involving the unilateral use of force, have been reopened. Although we are concerned about the implications of the Bush Doctrine, we do not agree that it fundamentally changes world politics as some have asserted. Instead, we argue that the global debate leading up to the war in Iraq signals widespread support for existing international norms. Most states continue to see force as a last resort, properly subject to multilateral control in all but the most urgent cases of imminent self-defense. The nature of American diplomatic maneuverings in the United Nations and the public statements of high-level officials suggest that even the United States continues to recognize the importance of these norms.     

Approaches to Defining "Empire" and Characterizing United States Influence in the Contemporary World

The militant unilateralism of the George W. Bush administration has revived interest in such closely related and contested terms as "superpower,""hegemon,""empire," and "imperialism." This article identifies four different but somewhat overlapping approaches to defining "empire": ideal type, self-consciously empirical, constructivist, and overtly normative. The author's personal view is that any notion of American Empire or indeed U.S. hegemony or even superpower is profoundly misleading. Although the United States still ranks high on the scale of most traditional realist power factors, United States capabilities appear to be gravely waning today and its exercise of both hard and soft power has recently been so inept as to limit its current influence and possibly future role in global politics.     

Terrorism Analysis and Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project: The Missing Element

ABSTRACT

The decision in the case of Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project raised important issues about civil liberties in the United States (2010), including freedom of speech and freedom of association, in relation to U.S. foreign policy actions. While the decision has the potential to infringe on certain liberties, the decision itself was based on very limited information on the nature of terrorism, the foreign terrorist organizations involved, and the processes by which terrorist groups can be induced to peacefully re-enter domestic political systems. There are also concerns about what can be the arbitrary designation of groups as foreign terrorist organizations. These issues raise serious questions about the role of the Supreme Court in the overall political system and judgments in cases involving terrorism and foreign policy.     

关于越战期间美国老挝政策的国外成果研究综述

冷战初期,老挝本不是美国东南亚政策的重点问题,但随着越南战争的爆发,美国对老挝的重视程度逐步加深,直至派出地面部队进行干涉。这一问题值得深思。国外针对该领域的研究已硕果累累,但国内的相关研究才刚刚起步。对国外相关研究成果的整理和推介,应有助于推动国内学者在该领域的研究取得更新突破。     

特朗普执政以来美国对拉美政策的调整及其影响

在美国的全球战略中,拉美地区历来占据着重要而特殊的位置。长期以来,美国视拉美为自己的“后院”,在拉美拥有独一无二的主导权和影响力。特朗普政府执政后,公开祭出“门罗主义”的旗帜,大幅度调整对拉美的政策,展现出更公开的干涉行径、更浓厚的利己色彩、更明显的分化企图和更强烈的排外取向,意在将拉美打造成一个政治上亲近美国、经贸上依赖美国、安全上不威胁美国的“后院”。短期看,特朗普政府对拉美的政策调整取得了一定的成效,对拉美的掌控有所强化。但长期看,美国和拉美地区之间的深层次矛盾和冲突并未完全纾解,在特定的时空背景下甚至存在进一步被激化的可能性;与此同时,特朗普政府对拉政策的调整还加剧了大国在拉美展开战略博弈的风险。特朗普政府的拉美政策如何进一步演变和发展,美拉关系如何变化,这些课题值得中国学界高度关注并深入研究。     

Bush: The Sequel

This article examines the likely foreign policy initiatives of the U.S. under the leadership of George W. Bush. The new president has outlined a fairly thorough critique of America's international behavior in the 1990s. Because a leader's public statements arguably serve to persuade various audiences and to build support for policy change, the article takes Bush's words quite seriously—along with those spoken or written by his closest foreign affairs advisors. Bush intends to abandon the so-called Clinton Doctrine and deploy national missile defenses. He is critical of American policies toward China and Russia, but has not presented bold new initiatives toward those powers. Under the rubric of "compassionate conservatism," Bush may alter U.S. relations toward the Global South in some interesting ways. The president and his advisors often purport to be realists, but the article demonstrates that their own words belie this claim as they often justify policies based on ideals rather than the pursuit of power.     

Holding power in sequential games 1

Holding power is simply the ability of a player to stay at one position longer than his opponent, thereby forcing the opponent to make the next move in a sequential game. In this paper, we illustrate the real world relevance of this concept by examining the Berlin crisis of 1948 and showing that only a holding power interpretation provides a satisfying explanation of the eventual resolution. We define holding power formally and find that, when one player has holding power, the outcome of the conflict is determined. We develop a simple procedure for identifying the holding power outcome in every strict ordinal 2×2 game, and draw several interesting conclusions about the nature of this power. We find that a horizon of six moves or less always ensures that the eventual holding power outcome is reached. We also find that holding power outcomes are always Pareto‐superior, except in a Prisoners’ Dilemma game when the initial position of the player without holding power is associated with the noncooperative Nash equilibrium. Finally, we determine that the holding power outcome depends on which player has this power in just 15 of the 78 distinct 2×2 ordinal games. In 9 of these games, holding power is effective in the sense that a player does better when he has holding power. In the remaining 6 cases, though, the possession of holding power is actually a disadvantage—a player prefers that his opponent have holding power rather than himself. We provide an explanation for this occasional phenomenon.     

Decision‐making during international crises: A reexamination

The purpose of this research note is to reexamine the methods and codings of crisis decision‐making processes performed by Herek, Janis, and Huth in 1987, and thereby to discuss the role of the case survey method as a means to build theory in the study of foreign policy. The research reported here uses a somewhat different measure of decision‐making process quality and a slightly expanded list of data sources than were used by Herek and his colleagues. It reevaluates a subset of the cases explored in the previous study. This research note largely confirms the analysis of crisis decision‐making processes presented in the previous study, though it notes and discusses some discrepancies. Furthermore, this reexamination seeks to contribute to our understanding of crisis decision‐making processes by using a different conceptualization of decision‐making process quality and thus a different coding procedure.     

Looking Beyond the National Level: Foreign Direct Investment Attraction in U.S. States

International relations scholars need to look beyond the national level because U.S. states and governors are increasingly important actors in world politics. One way to look at their international activities is by examining the ways in which U.S. states seek to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), just one research puzzle at the nexus of international relations and U.S. state politics, two fields that rarely talk to one another. After pointing out the gaps within theories from international relations and international political economy, this paper describes the evolving global roles of both U.S. states and governors and shows how U.S. states attract FDI through the use of their international offices and governor-led overseas missions. Empirical findings indicate that U.S. states' international offices and a higher level of economic interdependence help states attract FDI, and the paper argues that extension of institutional approaches from IPE may be valuable for future research about the international capabilities of subnational governments and their leaders.     

技术市场竞争与美国的技术安全化选择

技术市场竞争正成为大国技术竞争中最复杂、最重要和最突出的表现形式。作为霸权国,美国有着以不对称权力优势干预技术市场、重塑技术产业链的政治惯性,市场竞争与权力优势是美国技术安全化的动力追求与能力支撑。美国将技术与安全议题相联结,不仅能够挣脱现有规则与制度的束缚、阻断竞争国既有的技术扩散趋势,还可以动员和捆绑其他国家共同行动,达到最大化控制他国市场选择、保有和扩张国家市场份额的目的。因此,无论是美日半导体技术之争,还是在中美5G技术之争中,当处于崛起状态的竞争国使美国倍感技术市场竞争压力时,美国都以技术安全化手段,在国家和全球的技术市场选择中不断渗透意识形态与安全逻辑,动态持续对目标国进行安全化的塑造与打击。作为当下美国技术安全化主要的目标国,中国需要以更灵活的技术策略应对美国的技术安全化陷阱,从市场拓展、自主创新、企业管理和话语权提升等多方面对美国可能采取的安全化市场打击与压缩的行为作出应对。     

Mapping foreign policy behavior: An assessment and evaluation of events structures

Employing events indices for cooperation and conflict from the COPDAB data set, the graphic structuring process established by Steven Brams, and several alternative methods of quantifying the resulting event digraphs, this paper examines the utility of the graphic structuring process in efforts at explanation and prediction. Arguing that if the graphic structure represents an underlying structural order in the foreign policy behavior of states, predictability should exist between the graphic portrayal and other behavioral structures around it. Despite face validity in the sociometric qualities of the digraph results, little predictive capability was uncovered. The paper explains the testing process, disc asses the test results, and proposes alternative uses for the structural mapping procedure.     

Motivation and Intervention in the Northern Ireland Peace Process: An Interview with President Bill Clinton

The role of former U.S. President William Jefferson Clinton in the Northern Ireland peace process has been acknowledged as an example of political risk‐taking and leadership driven by political interests and strategic post–Cold War aims. The tendency to examine Clinton's role from the perspective of international and global policy objectives, however, has obscured consideration of his motivational role in the Northern Ireland peace process and of how he moved between encouragement and intervention to help the political parties reach a settlement. This article, which is drawn from an extended interview conducted with Clinton in 2017, seeks to paint a more comprehensive picture of Clinton's participation in the peace process, showing how his combination of motivational and interventional skills enabled him to help convince others of the need to take risks for peace and gave him greater influence and leverage over the peace process as a result.     

Mortgaging Security for Economic Gain: U.S. Arms Policy in an Insecure World

Similar to other consumer sectors of the global economy, the transfer of advanced conventional weapons and military technologies has entered the globalization process, a process that has qualitatively and quantitatively altered the composition and structure of U.S. national security policymaking. By injecting the decisionmaking process governing arms transfers into the global market place, U.S. policy makers must now reconcile maintaining economic competitiveness within the global system without jeopardizing U.S. national security interests. By subordinating national security interests to global economic imperatives, U.S. decisionmakers are at risk of mortgaging the political, societal, and security welfare of its citizenry for profit.     

1958年印尼内战与艾森豪威尔政府的政策

美国对1958年印尼内战的干涉是美国与第三世界关系史上一个有代表性的事件。艾森豪威尔政府从美苏两极对抗的角度认知和处理美国与新兴的民族主义国家的关系,将美国对亚非民族主义国家的政策附属于美国对苏冷战战略。正是基于这样一种政策思维,美国对印尼内战采取了干涉政策。干涉行动的失败,迫使美国决策当局重新检视对印尼政策的基本构架,并着手制定一项更为可行、更能反映印尼政治经济和社会现实的政策。     

美日同盟的出现与冲绳问题的产生

近数年来,围绕着驻冲绳美军基地,特别是普天间基地问题,美国、日本中央政府、冲绳地方政府两国三方之间发生了尖锐的冲突和争执。冲绳的民众为支持地方政府的政策再次掀起要求美军基地撤离的大规模群众运动。战后以来冲绳人一直在抗争试图减少基地甚至是实现无基地化,60多年过去了,冲绳仍然生活在基地当中。那么,冲绳问题在战后之初到底是如何形成的呢?从美日同盟的角度来探讨这个问题,可以看出,美日同盟的出现导致了冲绳问题的产生。《旧金山对日和约》结束了日本被占领状态,同时《美日安全条约》的签订确定了美日安保体制的法律框架,对冲绳来说更为重要的是《旧金山对日和约》第三条也成为美国统治冲绳的法律依据。也就是说,《旧金山和约》和《美日安全条约》结束了美日之间的敌对关系,并开启了两国之间的同盟关系,与此同时,美日安保体制的确立也就意味着冲绳问题的出现。     

美国对华政策的基本取向是导致台海危机的根本动因

长期以来,台湾问题一直是影响中美关系正常发展的关键问题之一。然而,美国对华政策的基本取向始终是将台湾视为不享有主权国家之名的独立的“政治实体”。美国为了其亚太战略乃至全球战略利益考虑,不遗余力地为台湾“拓展国际空间”和制造“双重承认”创造有利的外部环境。正是由于美国的支持和纵容,台湾当局在处理两岸关系上,已经逐渐背离了“一个中国”的基本原则,其“台独”的反动嘴脸昭然若揭。     

U.S. National Identity,Political Elites,and a Patriotic Press Following September 11

In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington, D.C. on September 11, 2001, U.S. government and military leaders often articulated distinctly pro-American themes in their public communications. We argue that this national identity discourse was at the heart of the U.S. government's attempt to unite the American public and to mobilize support for the ensuing "war on terrorism." With this perspective, we content analyzed Time and Newsweek newsmagazines for the five weeks following September 11 to identify potential communication strategies employed by government and military leaders to promote a sense of U.S. national identity. Findings suggest (a) that government and military officials consistently emphasized American core values and themes of U.S. strength and power while simultaneously demonizing the "enemy," and (b) that journalists closely paralleled these nationalist themes in their language.     

论奥巴马政府对俄政策调整的原因及俄美关系前景

前些年,布什政府对俄罗斯奉行的"挤压、遏制及削弱"的"单边主义"政策,致使美俄关系陷入日益"冰化"的状态。奥巴马上台后,呈现出谋求修复和改善与俄罗斯关系的政策调整趋势,而美国"单边主义"政策的挫败、俄罗斯方面的积极"抗争"以及美俄势力此消彼长的发展趋势等则是美国对俄政策调整的主要原因;以美国对俄政策调整为契机,美俄关系有望进入一个"合作加强、对抗减少"的"建设性"新阶段,然而,由于一系列制约性因素的存在,俄美关系的实质性改善仍任重而道远。