公安机关警察编制的人口影响因素分析

警察编制问题长期困扰公安机关。通过资料分析发现,人口与警察编制呈现显著的正相关关系;结合对人口数量及流动性对警察编制的影响的定性分析,进一步发现人口与警察编制的“一定”的因果关系;建立一元线性回归模型,为研究人员和决策者提供重要参考。     

我国乡镇企业环境污染的影响因素分析

改革开放以来,我国乡镇企业异军突起,取得了巨大成就,在促进国民经济发展、增加社会就业等方面发挥了重要作用.然而由于政府、乡镇企业、当地群众等多方面的原因,乡镇企业在迅速发展的同时肆意排污,严重地破坏了周边环境,给当地环境带来了巨大压力.     

建国后我国农村人口回流分析

改革开放以来 ,人口由乡村向城市大规模流动 ,农业劳动力大规模向非农产业转移 ,是中国农村人口流动的主流。但是建国 5 0多年来 ,这种流动并不是一帆风顺的 ,其间发生了四次大的人口回流 :195 5年的首次回流 ,6 0年代初我国城镇人口的负增长 ,“文革”十年中的人口回流 ,及 1989年— 1991年三年治理整顿时期的人口回流。四次人口回流的形式不同、成因不同 ,但影响都很严重。农村富余劳动力向非农产业和城镇转移 ,本是工业化和现代化的必然趋势 ,而一切形式的人口回流都是不正常的。我们要以史为鉴 ,在奔向全面建设小康社会的进程中 ,必须消除不利于城镇化发展的体制和政策障碍 ,引导农村劳动力合理有序地流动。     

我国粮食产量影响因素的实证分析

粮食产量的变动受多种因素的影响,通过实证分析研究发现：上期农业生产价格指数、种植面积、农业机械总动力显著增加粮食产量;成灾面积导致粮食减产;农业投入中有很大部分进入到农业基础设施建筑当中,在短期内很难对粮食产量造成影响;农业生产技术的提高、农业劳动者的劳动技能以及受教育水平的提高,在农村剩余劳动力不断向非农产业转移的同时造成了粮食产量的显著增加,农业劳动力与粮食产量呈负相关关系。     

公众预期对我国房地产宏观调控政策影响分析

1998年以来中国的房地产宏观调控发展历程经历了五阶段,各阶段公众预期呈现出不同的特征,并对调控政策效果产生了影响。因此,房地产市场调控政策的出台必须从调整房地产市场供求关系、建立长效机制、加强媒体与舆论的引导和管理以及保持政策的连续性、稳定性和长期性等加强公众预期管理等方面考虑。     

我国服务业发展影响因素的实证分析

当今世界经济,尤其是发达国家的经济发展轨迹中显示：服务业已成为各国着重发展的重要产业。这使得各国学者对服务业发展影响因素和服务业发展模式的研究逐渐兴起。应通过对我国1994-2008年间三类服务业数据进行计量回归,得出实证模型,分析出影响我国服务业发展的重要因素。     

恩格斯的两种生产理论对我国人口政策的影响

两种生产理论是马克思主义的重要组成部分,是马克思主义人口理论的重要基础。一直以来,两种生产理论为我国制定人口政策,实行计划生育基本国策提供了思想指导。     

九个因素影响寿命质量

英国医生特丽莎,麦克奈尔在其所著《长寿:增减寿命的100个因素》一书中综合多项研究,提出了一些影响寿命的重要因素.房间视野开阔:增寿2年研究表明,病房视野开阔的住院患者,康复速度更快,出院更早.健康人群则更能通过开阔的视野改善情绪、缓解压力、变得乐观,以保持健康体魄.如果你不喜欢窗户外的风景,则可以在室内观风景——以最喜欢的风景画或照片取而代之.     

制度因素对我国利用外资规模的影响

在探讨导致FDI大规模进入中国的原因时，无论从供给方面还是从需求方面看，制度因素都是主要的或决定性的因素。     

大学生心理健康影响因素分析

运用文献综述法对影响大学生心理健康的因素进行分析,通过分析认为影响因素包括三个方面:第一,中国式家庭教育是基础因素,中国传统的家庭教育重视孩子的成绩而轻视孩子的道德教育和体育,在孩子心理素质的培养上有所欠缺;第二,学校教育问题,中国的学校教育没能发展学生的个性特征和才能,降低了学生的自信心,进而影响就业和工作;第三,社会因素,社会因素也同样影响着家庭教育,农民工家庭的出现导致大量的留守儿童,离婚率的上升使单亲家庭的学生量增加,这都将影响学生的心理健康。因此,学生的心理健康需要家庭、学校和社会共同来承担责任和义务。     

Life expectancy and health status of the aged

There are several research issues which need further exploration if we are to better understand the implications of what appears to be increased levels of morbidity. Three general areas require additional research: the time of onset of chronic illness, the progression rate of illness, and the overlap and interaction between chronic and non-chronic conditions as well as multiple chronic conditions in a single individual. A major reason for the present uncertainty about morbidity is that information is unavailable regarding the incidence of chronic illness. However, incidence of chronic disease is difficult to measure unless there are either clear clinical indications or functional limitations. Work by survey researchers in defining initial reports of functional limitations associated with chronic illness would be very helpful. Furthermore, an understanding of incidence is necessary to further our understanding of the rate of progression of illness. The concept of a progression rate of illness makes sense only if we can have agreed upon measures of the onset of the illness. Both of these issues clearly require the use of longitudinal data. In fact any serious attempt to predict changes in health status over time as well as to relate changing patterns of mortality with changing patterns of morbidity will require a longitudinal data base. The difficulty in establishing a longitudinal data base is not only the time and expense of follow given set of individuals over a prolonged period of time, but also the problem of having a sample large enough to include individuals with specific chronic conditions of illness. One way to resolve the problem of sufficient sample size may be to do a combined survey which includes both a national probability sample of individuals as well as a sample of individuals with specific chronic diseases. Monitoring a group of individuals known to have specific chronic conditions would provide information about the progression and impact of the disease over time. Including a national probability sample of the entire population would provide information on the impact over time of changing health conditions for the entire population. While screening for specific conditions is an expensive procedure, it is likely to be far cheaper than including a sample size large enough to provide reliable estimates for specific conditions based on a national probability sample. Because the effects of postponed social security benefit eligibility will not be felt for many years, the opportunity for fruitful research is great. For now, we will summarize what we know from current research.     

1999年北京人的经济生活态度

通过抽样调查显示,1999年北京人的经济生活态度主要表现为三个特点：市民对客观经济的满意度与去年相比略有提高;以个人的经济生活状况的预期表现出明显的不确定感;人们的经济行为体现出更多的务实倾向。     

论析影响我国体育产业发展的因素及对策

通过对体育产业发展状况的分析,论述体育产业经济发展问题,主要在于:政府对体育投入的总量偏少,体育产业的投入渠道单一;体育产品制造业市场缺乏竞争力;体育产业有形资产的运营效率有待提高;体育产业的无形资产尚待与国际接轨;体育产业法制建设尚不完善。而解决这些问题的对策是:加强政府宏观调控;进一步开拓和发展体育产业市场;强化体育产业市场的内部要素。     

An analysis of the impact of registration factors on turnout in 1992

In 1993 Congress passed and President Clinton signed into law the National Voter Registration Act of 1993. The law contained provisions for uniform mail registration, changes in purge procedures, and changes in some forms of agency registration including motor-voter registration. Using the 1992 National Election Study, I estimate the impact of several of these changes in addition to same-day registration. Same-day registration and motor-voter registration both show strong, positive relationships to turnout, while the results are mixed for mail registration and changed purge procedures.     

我国生态文明建设的困境对社会治理的影响

生态文明既是人类文明进步发展的新样态,同时又与物质文明、政治文明、精神文明共同构成文明的基本要素。改革开放以来,我国生态文明建设在理论和实践方面都取得了一定进展,但是仍然存在着生态资源管理不当、环境治理地区性差异等问题。生态文明的困境会引发环境事件、政府认同危机与国际政治冲突。因此,为减小消极影响、扩大积极影响,需要发挥各级政府、社会团体和社会舆论的综合性力量,推动中国生态文明建设与社会治理齐头并进,取得新突破。     

An econometric analysis of counterterrorism effectiveness: the impact on life and property losses

This paper investigates authorities’ relative counterterrorism effectiveness focusing on its behavior over time, its impact on casualties and property losses. Using data on transnational terrorism from the ITERATE database (1973–2003) and discrete choice models, relative counterterrorism effectiveness is evaluated controlling for a variety of terrorists’ and authorities’ effort attributes. The probability of a terrorist incident being stopped by the authorities has increased in the examined period. Furthermore, a negative relationship between authorities’ ability to stop an incident and the probabilities of casualties and damages is identified. However, the “ability to stop” exerts higher impact on the probability of property losses compared to casualties.     

The impact of motivational and contextual factors on turnout in first- and second-order elections

Based on voter survey from European election study 2009, we examine the impact of one individual-level motivational factor, i.e. interest in politics, and its interactions with institutional and contextual factors such as compulsory voting, electoral competition and the number of parties on participation in 2009 EP elections and previous national elections. The results show that political interest is more closely connected to turnout in second-order elections which are usually considered less salient. Correspondingly, also the contingent effect of compulsory voting and competition is more evident in EP elections. While compulsory voting substantially decreases the turnout gap between the most and least politically attentive voters in both types of elections, the moderating effect of competitiveness is found only in EP elections.     

The impact of election outcome on internal political efficacy: The role of contextual factors

Many studies have investigated the consequences of election outcome for one of the important public attitudes, political efficacy. The effect of election outcome on external efficacy has been confirmed by most previous studies, whereas the effect on internal efficacy is not clear-cut. By reconceptualizing internal efficacy based on the social cognitive theory of self-efficacy, this study argues that there are two conditions for an election outcome’s impact on internal efficacy: the expected difficulty of winning and the level of involvement in the election. By analyzing panel survey data collected for three Japanese Lower House elections, this study shows that election outcome exerted an impact on internal efficacy if the following two conditions were simultaneously satisfied: (1) winners/losers perceived that the election was difficult/easy to win, and (2) voters were deeply involved in the election process.     

Well-Being in the Welfare State: Level Not Higher, Distribution Not More Equitable

The terms well-being and welfare are Often bracketed together, especially well-being and state welfare. The level of well-being is believed to be higher in welfare states, and its distribution more equitable. This theory is tested here in a comparative study of 41 nations from 1980 to 1990. The size of state welfare is measured by social security expenditures. The well-being of citizens is measured in terms of the degree to which they lead healthy and happy lives. Contrary to expectation, there appears to be no link between the size of the welfare state and the level of well-being within it. In countries with generous social security schemes, people are not healthier or happier than in equally affluent countries where the state is less open-handed. Increases or reductions in social security expenditure are not related to a rise or fall in the level of health and happiness either. There also appears to be no connection between the size of state welfare and equality in well-being among citizens of the state. In countries where social security expenditure is high, the dispersion of health and happiness is not smaller than in equally prosperous countries with less social insurance spending. Again, increases and reductions in social security expenditure are not linked with equality in health and happiness among citizens. This counterintuitive result raises five questions: (1) Is this really true? (2) If so, what could explain this lack of effect? (3) Why is it so difficult to believe this result? (4) How should this information affect social policy? (5) What can we learn from further research?