Turbulence in the Taiwan Strait

The election of Tsai Ing-wen as president of Taiwan by an electorate increasingly inclined towards independence has made Beijing less tolerant of strategic ambiguity and more apt to attempt to impose reunification. Washington may need to undertake more proactive diplomacy to stave off a military confrontation.     

Ethnic Peace in the Taiwan Strait

The Taiwan Strait has often been referred to as one of the world’s most dangerous hotspots and many dire predictions have been made about a military conflict between mainland China and Taiwan, likely involving the United States. Yet, despite several crises in the Taiwan Strait and numerous war speculations, there has been no major armed conflict between Beijing and Taipei since the 1950s. How do we explain the puzzle that an expected war across the Taiwan Strait did not happen after all? This paper first examines the explanations based on military balance of power. Having found the realist/rationalist explanations less convincing, however, this study explores the explanatory power of the “ethnicity” factor. It suggests that when the Chinese society is no longer divided by ideological differences, the “ethnicity” may provide a more convincing explanation of why a military conflict has not happened in the Taiwan Strait in the past four decades. This paper also considers several counterarguments, including the neo-liberal argument of economic integration as a driving force for peace in the age of globalization. The paper concludes with a discussion of some policy implications resulting from the “ethnic peace” thesis and proposes that when actively promoted by the both sides, the Chinese ethnic identity is likely to be the most important strategic guarantee of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait for many years to come.     

Wake Up to Reality: Taiwan, the Chinese Mainland and Peace Across the Taiwan Strait

Relations between the Republic of China (ROC or Taiwan) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC or Chinese mainland) have improved significantly since 2008. However, this study suggests that it will be difficult for the two sides to sustain the momentum in cross-strait relations unless Beijing—and to some extent Taipei—begin to recalibrate their relationship in a more pragmatic way and adopt some new thinking on the concepts of sovereignty and the political status of the ROC. In short, they need to figure out a way to acknowledge the fact that both the ROC and PRC exist.     

一个中国原则是两岸和平统一的基础和前提

本文阐述了我国政府解决台湾问题的方针;论述了台湾自古就是中国神圣领土的一部分,海峡两岸统一势在必行;分析了李登辉耍尽权谋搞分裂,终于落得被人民赶下台的可耻下场;论述了“台独”即意味战争,分裂就没有和平,台湾新领导人只有接受和承认一个中国的原则,放弃“台独”立场,尽快与祖国大陆进行和平统一的对话和谈判,才是正确的道路。     

Tensions in Belgium

ABSTRACT

Musolff's study applies methods of cognitive metaphor analysis to Hitler's antisemitic imagery in Mein Kampf, especially to the conceptualization of the German nation as a (human) body that had to be cured from a deadly disease caused by Jewish parasites. The relevant expressions from the conceptual domains of biological and medical categories form a partly narrative, partly inferential-argumentative source ‘scenario’, which centred on a notion of blood poisoning that was understood in three ways: a) as a supposedly real act of blood defilement, i.e. rape; b) as a part of the source scenario of illness-cure; and c) as an allegorical element of an apocalyptic narrative of a devilish conspiracy against the ‘grand design of the creator’. The conceptual differences of source and target levels were thus short-circuited to form a belief-system that was no longer open to criticism. The results cast new light on central topics of Holocaust research, such as the debates between more ‘intentionalist’ and more ‘functionalist’ explanations of the origins of the Holocaust, and the question of how the Nazi metaphor system helped gradually to ‘initiate’ wider parts of the German populace into the implications of the illness-cure scenario as a blueprint for genocide. The Nazi antisemitic metaphor system thus provides a unique example of the cognitive forces that can be unleashed in the service of racist stigmatization and dehumanization.     

社会资本:探讨两岸关系和平发展的新视角

两岸关系和平发展是一个内涵丰富的概念,全面理解两岸关系和平发展有必要进行视角切换.推动两岸关系和平发展,不能仅仅依赖公权力的作用,发掘、培育并运用社会资本将有力地克服公权力作用的先天不足.社会资本概念开拓了探讨两岸关系和平发展的新视角.     

One talk, two tables: A study of the 1998 Koo-Wang meeting across the Taiwan Strait

From October 14 to October 19, 1998, Koo Chen-fu, Chairman of the Taipei-based Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), met his mainland counterpart, Wang Daohan, Chairman of the Beijing-based Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS). This paper uses the Koo-Wang meeting to examine the question of how two divergent parties either come to terms or fail to reach agreement and what factors may be involved in their calculations. How significant are those “shadow participants”—domestic constituencies—during the push and pull process at the international negotiations? In this case study, domestic factors claimed more weight than international factors because domestic constituencies had set up strict conditions for each delegation team before the meeting. The result was more of an appearance of dialogue than an effort at sincere problem solving.     

Japan and the cross-Taiwan Strait conflict

An armed conflict between Taiwan and China is not unthinkable in the future. For historical, geographical, economic, and diplomatic reasons, Japan would not be able to stand on the sidelines. Relying on three major concepts—national interests, path dependence and balance of power, this paper explores Japan’s three possible roles in the event of a cross-Strait conflict. First, Japan could pass the buck, staying out of the conflict as much as possible and providing at most logistical and intelligence support for an American military operation. Second, it could balance power, throwing its weight behind Washington against Beijing. Finally, it could play peacemaker. At the end of the article, the author discusses several key factors that would shape Tokyo’s decision-making in the event of a cross-Strait conflict and assesses the relative probability of each option. He is the author ofExplaining Chinese Democratization (Praeger, 2000). His recent research interests include Chinese pacifism and China’s historical place in the world. For their comments, the author would like to thank anonymous reviewers, Natalie Edwards, Mei Guan, Sujian Guo, James Hsiung, Wade Hudson, Erica Johnson, Chien Liu, Andrew Needle, Anne Schotter, Steve Snow, Liang Tang, Wallace Thies, Yong Wang, and Kim Worthy.     

Strategic rivalries around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a key commercial chokepoint that links two persistently unstable and insecure locales – Yemen and the Horn of Africa – and as a consequence faces standing challenges to its security. Turkey and the Arab states of the Gulf, as well as China and the United States, are expanding their economic and military activity in the region. This has increased the potential for diplomatic discord and strategic instability.     

The Effects of the Canadian Supreme Court's Charter Interpretation on Regional and Intergovernmental Tensions in Canada

Canada's adoption of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms in 1982had a number of unexpected consequences. Many Canadians hopedthat the Charter's adoption would help unify the country bycreating a shared set of civil liberties; yet, it was also fearedthat the Charter would tip the balance federal power in favorof the federal government because it allowed the national SupremeCourt to oversee provincial policymaking. Neither of these predictionshas come to pass. In its Charter cases, theSupreme Court hasneither made the national government its constitutional favoritenor helped to unify Canadians.The Court's language-rights caseshelped catalyze Quebecois resentment toward the rest of Canada.preferentialtreatment of laws and court decisions from Ontario has the potentialto increase Canada's regional antagonisms as well. These findingsdemonstrate that judicial power can have significant politicaleffects that are not anticipated by constitutional reformersor the constitutions they adopt.     

Developing the Digital Content Industry in Taiwan

The average global annual growth rate of digital content products has grown exponentially. This is because of the technology advancement, cost reduction, and availability of the enabling technologies, e.g., digital processing, digital storage, and digital telecommunications. The development of the digital content industry (DCI) requires a strong cultural background, creative ideas, respect of intellectual property rights, and telecommunications infrastructure, which are all dependent on government supportive policies. This study summarizes the government policies, progress, and obstacles in the development of Taiwan's DCI and compares these subjects with other countries, including the United States, EU countries, Japan, and Korea. In this paper, Taiwan's DCI opportunities and challenges will be discussed, and strategies and recommendations will be provided, based on Taiwan's unique resources and competitive advantages.     

Rivalry between Taiwan and the PRC in Latin America

Latin America and the Caribbean have been a major battleground of the “foreign policy war” between Taiwan and the PRC over international legitimacy, and recognition. This paper analyzes the growing rivalry between China and Taiwan and its implications. The first part of the paper examines the importance of Latin America and the Caribbean for both Beijing and Taipei. The second section explores political aspects of their involvement in the region. The third part assesses how Beijing and Taipei use economic diplomacy to meet their diplomatic objectives in Latin America. The fourth section examines the implications of the increasing rivalry between Taipei and Beijing in the region. This study is supported by a Fulbright scholarship and a faculty development grant from Merrimack College. The views in the paper are entirely mine and should not be ascribed to the institutions acknowledged above. I would like to express my appreciation to Wang Hsiu-chi at Tamkang University in Taiwan who provided me with excellent facilities during my field trip to Taiwan. Author would like to thank Curtis Martin, Lowell Dittmer, Xiaogang Deng, Antonio Hsiang, Tchen Tchiang, Baohui Zhang, Baogang Guo, Guoli Liu, Ping Li, and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on earlier versions of this paper. An earlier version of the paper was presented at the International Symposium on National Identity and the Future Cross-Strait Relations, University of Macau, in December, 2004.     

The December 1998 elections in Taiwan

The 5 December 1998 elections in Taiwan mark the first time that the national city mayoral elections and Legislative Yuan elections were held simultaneously. There was an increase in the number of candidates and seats for the Legislative Yuan election compared to the 1995 election; the Legislative Yuan sits for a three-year term. The mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaoshiung were the second direct popular elections featuring two well-known incumbents and two tough challengers vying for the four-year post. All Taiwanese elections in the 1990s were seen as referendums on the fate of the long-ruling Kuomintang, but many political commentators saw the 1999 elections as a ‘dress rehearsal’ for the presidential election in 2000.     

Taiwan and the geopolitics of late development

Abstract

Through a case study of Taiwan, this paper seeks to address recent debates surrounding the transformation of developmental states in East Asia. Whilst a number of authors have cited the Taiwanese state as being both cautious and resilient in the midst of global restructuring, this paper seeks to critically engage with such arguments by highlighting the dynamic and mutually constitutive relations between the forms of social relations that underpin late development and the wider geopolitical system in which such development occurs. Specifically, Taiwanese industrialisation can be viewed as an outcome of the US intervention in the Chinese civil war and subsequent exclusion of China from the regional political economy in the period between the Korean and Vietnam Wars. The Kuomintang (KMT)'s retreat to Taiwan established the basis for the autonomous developmental state, and the US underpinned this state through military protection, aid and access to its own domestic market. However, the relative decline of US hegemony and the readmission of China into the international system have posed significant challenges to Taiwan's developmental state. The US sought to redress its trade imbalance with East Asia by placing pressure on Taiwan to liberalise its political economy. Furthermore, the very process of development itself served to undermine the autonomy of the state as it came under pressure from new social forces. Taiwan has more recently been faced with a dilemma of closer integration with the mainland or the maintenance of its de facto economic and political independence at the risk of becoming isolated from the global trading system.     

Institutions of Deliberative Democratic Processes and Interest Groups: Roles, Tensions and Incentives

There are inherent tensions between traditional, more pluralist forms of public participation and new deliberative democratic processes, such as citizens' juries. These innovative processes, known collectively as citizens' forums, challenge existing roles and power relationships between interest groups and the state. Instead of having key access to the policy stage, interest groups are required to be 'bystanders', 'information providers', and ultimately 'process legitimisers'. With such a radical shift in roles and power structure, there are few apparent reasons why interest groups would want to participate in such deliberative processes. In some cases, to the detriment of the process, they decide not to.