Russia and the Western Balkans

Russia seeks to prevent the integration of the Western Balkans into the European Union or NATO and to sow discord where possible. While Russia’s regional activities are concerning, its success in obtaining meaningful strategic and economic results is questionable. The West retains considerable influence in the Western Balkans and NATO remains an effective vehicle for Euro-Atlantic integration.     

The wider implications of Zapad 2017

Russia's Zapad 2017 exercise, in which Russia defended Belarus against externally supported extremist groups, conveyed Russia's determination to re-establish its sphere of influence in the face of NATO's perceived expansionism. NATO must not allow the fact that Zapad was less aggressive than some had feared to blunt its message of greater vigilance and preparedness, nor shake its firm commitment to eastern European allies.     

In search of the ‘Other’ in Asia: Russia–China relations revisited

This paper argues that Russia and China are partners of consequence and that the neglect of the normative dimension of the Sino-Russian relationship has led its impact on global governance to be undervalued and misunderstood. Following a constructivist approach, the paper examines the shared norms underlying an ever closer Sino-Russian partnership, despite divergent interests in a number of areas. A first section examines how shared norms lead Russia and China to define their identity similarly, facilitate joint actions, and constrain their individual policy choices. For Russia, elaborating its own unique identity is crucial to its claim to global status, though complicated by interactions with multiple ‘Others.’ Russia's effort to engage Asian partners is often viewed as hedging against China, but as second section argues that Russian engagement in Asia is better understood in terms of Russia's effort to define an Asian identity. A third section highlights the securitization/desecuritization dynamic in Sino-Russian economic relations. Xi Jinping's efforts to redefine China's global role reinforces its tendency to desecuritize the vulnerabilities that lead China to seek economic cooperation with Russia. Russia, fearing becoming a ‘resource appendage’ of China, then securitizes economic relations with China.     

From national identity to national security: China's changing responses toward India in 1962 and 1998

This article examines Russian Government policy towards Northeast Asia as an interplay between aspirations, which have been expressed by government leaders, parliamentary figures and prominent academics and journalists and actual results. The article uses three levels, global, regional and bilateral, as a basis for the analysis. In terms of global interests the Russian leadership has sought diplomatic balance against the US, in terms of regional interests the leadership has pursued the aim of economic and security integration while at the bilateral level Russian leadership has sought specific benefits from particular relations with China, Japan and South Korea. The article notes that Russia has obtained certain diplomatic benefits from the relationship with China which serve its interests at the global level. At the regional level policy aspirations have been frustrated by Russia's dire economic condition and the tendency to be treated as an ‘outsider’. Russia has benefited from an improvement of bilateral relations with China, Japan and South Korea but these gains do not translate into an improved position at the regional level yet. while the Russian leadership has been nurturing the development of bilateral relationships problems particular to those relationships hinder its wider regional acceptance.     

Boisterous Russia in emerging Europe

Russia is permanently at a crossroads in its history, or standing in exasperation at a fork in the road but failing to resolve a geographical, historical and metaphysical dilemma: is Russia part of Europe or not? Russia holds a key but vulnerable strategic position in the heartland of Eurasia. Its geographical existence within a larger zone of Eurasian civilization meant that Russian culture had been shaped to a not insignificant extent by influences coming from Asia, that Russia was Eurasian and not European not only by virtue of its cultural patterns but also in terms of anthropological–racial considerations as well. The Eurasian Customs Union is clearly seen by Russia as a vehicle for reintegrating the post‐Soviet space, including the countries that fall within the sphere of the European Union's (EU)'s eastern neighbourhood. The Eurasian Customs Union is the vehicle through which Russia increasingly engages in ‘normative rivalry’ with the EU in the so‐called ‘shared neighbourhood’. These geopolitical and economic contraptions underpin the strategic calculations that have influenced largely the crisis of Russian Lebensraum escapade in Ukraine and EU's reaction. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Sino-Japanese-Russian triangle

This paper attempts to understand the relations between three important actors in Northeast Asia — China, Russia, and Japan — since the end of the Cold War. Whereas the political changes attending the collapse of the communist bloc have opened new foreign policy opportunities to all three actors, only China and Russia have been quick to move on them. Japan’s relative inflexibility, attributable to its alliance with the US on the one hand and its territorial dispute with Russia on the other, has had the effect of impeding the application of triangular diplomacy. Editor ofAsian Survey, has written or editedSino-Soviet Normalization and Its International Implications (1992),China’s Quest for National Identity (with Samuel Kim, 1993), and many other analyses of Chinese domestic and foreign policy. His most recent book (with Haruhiro Fukui and Peter N.S. Lee) isInformal Politics in East Asia (Cambridge, 2000).     

Economic cooperation in Northeast Asia: The proposed Tumen River scheme

Abstract

This paper examines a relatively unexplored aspect of the Russo-Japanese territorial dispute: the involvement of subnational actors. It focuses in particular on the sustained campaign of domestic lobbying and paradiplomacy by elites from the Far East region of Sakhalin aimed at preventing the Russian central government from transferring the South Kuril Islands/Northern Territories to Japan during the 1990s. It explores the various responses to the ‘Sakhalin factor’ from federal authorities in Russia, as well as private and public bodies in Japan, highlighting the subsequent localization and pluralization of diplomatic channels. The paper also considers why the ‘Sakhalin factor’ became so prominent, pointing to a synergy of factors that include the high-profile anti-concessionary campaigns of the Sakhalin political elite, the fallout from Russia's troubled attempts at state building and a possible convergence of interests between Boris Yeltsin and regional authorities. The paper concludes with an analysis of how Vladimir Putin's federal reforms, launched in 2000, have diminished Sakhalin's authority over the South Kuril Islands.     

People’s Mediation Committees: Bargaining Between Hospitals and Patients

The Chinese government is cautious when it comes to managing bottom-up compensation claims as many collective actions are triggered by failing to address such monetary requests. Thus, the government has delegated the responsibility of dispute resolution and compensation distribution to a bargaining channel called People’s Mediation Committees and its agents, the mediators. However, little systematic evidence exists to explain the rationale for compensation distribution led by the government or the regime’s strategic objectives in pursuing compensation distribution to settle social disputes, especially those disputes between citizens and the government or its agents. Using medical dispute data as a proxy, this article examines the processes and outcomes of mediation in compensation distribution. It finds that People’s Mediation Committees have effectively institutionalized the compensation distribution process, but the outcomes may still be influenced by patients’ tactics and the bargaining power held by hospitals.

     

Battles over numbers: the case of the Argentine consumer price index (2007–2015)

An unprecedented crisis of confidence in Argentina's public statistics rendered the declaration of a ‘National Statistical Emergency’ in 2016. This paper examines the battle over the Argentine consumer price index (CPI) between 2007 and 2015. It argues that in this dispute the index became the object of political struggle rather than a methodological controversy. The main characteristics of the Argentine CPI, its trajectory and the country’s inflationary history influenced the type of debate and the dispute that was possible and feasible. The battle was linked to the erosion of confidence in and social support for official statistics and to the emergence of alternative price indices. Both processes seriously undermined the government's ability to control inflation.     

Think territory politically: the making and escalation of Beijing’s commitment to Sovereignize Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands

In popular narratives, intellectual and media analysts believe the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands dispute between China and Japan is a contestation for potential hydrocarbon reserves and other maritime rights which are per se divisible, but nationalism – particularly on China side – and relative power change between the two competing claimants make these territories increasingly indivisible and the dispute war-prone. Based on a review over People's Daily’s coverage of the disputes and other secondary information, this article reveals a different scenario by highlighting the political meanings of disputed territories for national cohesion and regime self-preservation. It finds, Beijing’s strategic moves in the disputes are influenced by its efforts at different occasions to de-legitimate Republic of China at Taiwan and defend its core interests – namely Taiwan and the "One-China" principle, to appease the patriotism in Hong Kong and facilitate the latter’s stable reversion to China in 1990s, and what is more, to rally popular support at home. In addition, Beijing’s Diaoyu/Senkaku strategy did not follow a carefully calculated path, but was mostly reactive to the contingencies and ultimately took shape through the incremental accumulation of previous policies and behaviours.     

The EU as Promoter of Environmental Norms in the Doha Round

This article investigates the reasons why the EU tried to promote environmental norms in the Doha round. It argues that the EU's support of a ‘greener’ World Trade Organization stems from tensions between the rigidity of the domestic dynamics of positive integration in the EU and the increased bindingness of negative integration commitments undertaken under the WTO. Consensual decision-making procedures in the EU led societal groups to push for stringent food safety and environmental regulations in the EU, and made them very resistant to change. These dynamics of positive integration, however, produced rules that were inconsistent with negative integration commitments undertaken under the WTO, at a time when the creation of a quasi-judicial dispute settlement mechanism in the trade regime had greatly increased the bindingness of WTO rules. As a result of the twofold effect of domestic and international institutional constraints, EU decision-makers were subject to compelling incentives to try and strengthen legitimate exceptions from WTO rules and immunise European regulation against WTO legal challenges. Empirical evidence on how the EU shaped its trade-and-environment agenda in the run-up to the Doha Round in 2001, as well as how it negotiated in the subsequent period, lends support to the argument.     

Russia's energy diplomacy with China: personalism and institutionalism in its policy-making process

ABSTRACT

Russia's growing energy cooperation with China is central to several of Moscow's top foreign-policy objectives. Analyzing what drives Russia's energy diplomacy with China can therefore shed important light on the dynamics of Russian foreign policy-making. We go beyond other recent studies of this topic by examining the role of domestic political influences and the countries’ bilateral interactions. We show that personalist elements influence both Russia's policy-making and its diplomacy with China. The personalism has made it hard for Russia to coordinate the relevant decision-making institutions and get the most from its energy strength. The economic gains from recent energy deals, particularly to Russia's Far East, have been less than expected, and Russia has met only limited success in achieving its foreign-policy priorities in the Asia-Pacific region. Moving forward, Russia must further institutionalize its decision-making process, limit the role of personalism, and better coordinate the activities of its energy firms with the goals of its central agencies and local governments.     

Democratic justice and contractarian injustice

This paper places Weale’s theory in its historical context, clarifying the dispute between Brian Barry’s justice as impartiality and David Gauthier’s justice as mutual advantage. Contra Weale, who argues that justice can involve both mutual advantage and impartiality, this paper suggests that impartiality and mutual advantage are incompatible, and that Barry’s position is preferable to Gauthier’s. Three specific issues will be addressed: First, Weale’s theory of democratic justice includes an account of injustice which is unpersuasive. Secondly, deliberative democracy does not only require equality of power, as Weale suggests, but also material (economic) equality. Thirdly, Weale’s claim that workers should be allowed to keep the full fruits of their labour is questionable.     

Qatar and its neighbours

Qatar’s ruling family has a long history of struggle with rival Gulf dynasties. Qatar’s neighbours have increasingly seen in Doha’s determination to forge an independent path an alarming affinity to the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran. This perception contributed to their embargo of Qatar in June 2017. The embargo has failed to isolate or break Qatar, however, and there is little indication that the dispute will be resolved soon.     

The successes and limitations of Russia’s economic strategy

The Kremlin’s basic economic strategy is to trade efficiency and growth for political control and a tight rein on Russia’s strategic sectors. Russia’s economy has faced substantial difficulties since 2013, although it is once again performing reasonably well and there is no basis for believing that sanctions will force a change in Moscow’s foreign policy. However, slow GDP growth and fiscal rectitude complicate the task of reversing a fall in living standards that could (unchecked) threaten political stability.     

Russia's priorities in the Pacific

While Japan’s increased use of the WTO dispute settlement system since 1995 is now widely acknowledged, much less clear are the reasons and motivations behind the specific complaints filed by the Japanese government. An examination of Japan’s complaints between 1995 and 2002 reveals that they have been undertaken almost exclusively on behalf of two sectors, namely automobiles and especially steel. What accounts for the concentration of Japan’s complainant activity in these sectors and not others? In drawing a direct link from domestic politics to the heart of the WTO dispute settlement system, this essay stresses the importance of sectoral lobbying and pressures. It shows concretely how politically organized and institutionally privileged sectors such as Japanese steel have become a major driving force in Japan’s WTO strategy overall. These results are important for considering why there may be far more interaction between state, sectoral, and electoral interests than is normally suspected in the WTO dispute settlement processes.     

Rising Confidence Behind the “Chinese Dream”

Since November 2012, the Chinese leaders have been calling for the Chinese people to become confident in achieving the “Chinese Dream”. Given the mounting political, economic and social problems that China is facing and low rankings China receives on some key indicators on a global scale of comparison, one has to wonder where China’s confidence comes from. This study suggests that what gives China the reasons to be confident is not how well China has been performing in absolute terms, but how China has been performing relative to its neighboring countries. This study has selected three of China’s biggest neighbors, Japan, Russia and India, to compare with China on seven systems of performance assessment which cover the areas of government effectiveness, economic confidence, foreign direct investment confidence, intentional homicide, gender gap, international tourism, and global competitiveness. It finds that while Japan is still ahead of China in a few areas of performance assessment, China is closing in on Japan fast. On the other hand, Russia and India are trailing China in most areas of performance assessment and the gap between them is widening. Throughout the 20th Century, Russia, China and India all struggled to pursue their dreams of becoming strong and prosperous in the face of challenges from the Western powers. Today, China seems one step ahead of the rest toward achieving its dream. Behind the “Chinese Dream” project is the rising confidence about China’s current position and China’s future.     

The European Union Blowback? Euroscepticism and its Consequences in the Western Balkans

While there exists a large body of literature investigating the European Union’s intervention in the western Balkans, and in particular the influence of so-called ‘enlargement fatigue’, rarely is the western Balkans’ own fatigue towards the EU given serious consideration. This paper examines domestic views about Europe, arguing that aspiring new EU member states have been experiencing various forms of Euroscepticism due to a number of socio-economic, cultural and political factors. The growth of Euroscepticism has helped Russia to play a more assertive and influential role in the region. However, as this paper argues, Euroscepticism is not a rejection of the European perspective and the search for alternatives, but rather a critique of the actual methods, timing and impact of the integration process.     

New strategies for an old rivalry? China–Russia relations in Central Asia after the energy boom

China and Russia both have interests in bordering Central Asia. China's thirst for energy has seen its footprint expand rapidly in the region relative to that of Russia, Central Asia's historical hegemon. With the two powerful neighbors’ history of competition and conflict, the shift in relative influence between them risks a resurgence of bilateral rivalry. Referencing the scholarly literature on strategic rivalry, this article examines how energy relations have helped shaped the trajectory of China-Russian relations in Central Asia, particularly after the shock that came with the collapse of oil and gas prices in 2008–2009.     

新时期我国文化体制改革的特点及趋势分析

我国新时期的文化体制改革已历经30多年,纵观我国文化体制改革历程,"分离"与"融合"是我国文化体制改革的鲜明特点,双重分离是文化体制改革的基础和关键,多要素融合是文化体制改革的主要内容和实现途径。在这一过程中,"分离"与"融合"相互渗透,相辅相成,"融合发展"将成为未来文化体制改革的必然趋势。