后塔利班时代的毒品问题与阿富汗政治

阿富汗毒品问题与该国政治有着密切联系。苏联入侵带来的战乱与政治失序是阿富汗毒品问题产生的重要因素。塔利班倒台后,中央政府微弱的政治权威、美国反恐战略的刺激、毒品之于各涉毒群体的角色转换等原因造成毒品问题在这一时期继续恶化。同时,毒品问题为阿富汗政治带来诸多负面效应:助长政治腐败、地方军阀与部落势力坐大、塔利班与恐怖主义再活跃等。阿富汗毒品形势所发生的新近变化尤其塔利班在毒品活动中的角色转换,将使该问题的解决更加困难,对阿富汗政治走向也将产生微妙影响。     

上海合作组织与阿富汗问题

阿富汗非上海合作组织成员国,也非它的观察员国,但上合却与阿富汗有着特殊的关系。在上合的全部历史中,阿富汗问题始终没有脱离过它的视野。这种情况的形成,其基本原因在于阿富汗与地区安全密不可分,中亚诸多安全问题与阿富汗有扯不断的关系,一些问题的源头也在阿富汗。没有阿     

当前阿富汗形势对中亚安全的影响

目前阿富汗战争处在交战双方边打边谈的局面,塔利班在阿富汗北部扩大势力范围,并有外溢之势。卡尔扎伊政府与塔利班的和谈、美国撤军等是当前阿富汗问题中的热点。美国与巴基斯坦的关系由于反恐问题矛盾激化,对阿富汗局势产生影响。毒品成为阿富汗非传统安全中的首要威胁。阿富汗形势对中亚安全影响有限,主要体现在非传统安全领域,即恐怖主义合流和毒品泛滥。中亚安全威胁仍主要来自地区内部。     

中亚安全和阿富汗毒品

中亚五国独立以后,由于缺乏有效的控制,毒品生产在五国迅速发展.20世纪70年代以后,阿富汗成为世界上最重要的毒品生产国之一,其鸦片生产已占世界总量的3/4,且有一半以上输出到中亚,使这一地区成为重要的毒品生产和转运中心.事实表明,阿富汗和中亚的毒品已与恐怖主义、宗教极端势力结合在一起,严重危害了地区和国家安全.     

巴基斯坦和阿富汗的毒品政治

西南亚“金新月”地区包括阿富汗、巴基斯坦和伊朗三国接壤的部分地区 ,有 30 0 0多公里边境线 ,其面积约 2 0万平方公里 ,其中阿富汗占 70 %以上。进入 90年代以来 ,由于阿富汗连绵不绝的战乱与内乱 ,许多居民迫于生计大量种植罂粟 ,致使该国成为世界上主要的罂粟种植国和出口国之一。 1 996年 ,其种植面积上升到 5 7万公顷 ,产量达 2 2 5 0吨 ;同期巴基斯坦的种植约 1 0 0 0公顷 ,产量 30余吨 ;伊朗则是该地区毒品的主要转运地和消费国之一。十年来 ,作为“金新月”的主要国家阿富汗和巴基斯坦毒品的增长 ,一个原因是其特殊的地理位置 ;…     

当前阿富汗毒品问题及其影响

当前,阿富汗毒品问题形势严峻：罂粟种植泛滥、毒品走私猖獗。阿富汗的毒品生产和走私不但为该国塔利班提供了大量活动资金来源,同时造成诸多社会问题,严重影响了阿富汗的政治、经济和社会安全,使其国内安全形势更趋复杂。从目前情况看,尽管联合国非常重视,阿现政府也做了种种努力,但由于各方面的复杂原因,阿富汗毒品问题仍难以在短时期内得到解决。     

阿富汗毒品问题及相关国际合作

阿富汗毒品问题在2007年进一步凸显,对阿和平重建进程和地区安全形势构成了巨大挑战.有关解决阿富汗毒品问题的国际合作从2001年阿重建进程之初即已开始,也取得了一定成果,但未能遏制阿毒品的泛滥趋势,其主要原因在反毒政策和重建政策两方面.中国也是阿富汗毒品问题的受害国之一,应更积极地参与相关国际合作.     

巴阿边境地区的毒品生产与贩运

巴阿边境地区历史上就是重要的鸦片产地,阿富汗目前是全球最大鸦片生产国和海洛因输出地,巴基斯坦则为阿富汗毒品输出的重要通道。塔利班和"基地"组织在该地区的活动,尤其是阿富汗境内安全局势与该地区的毒品生产和贩运紧密联系。该地区毒品生产和贩运既有地理、气候和经济原因,更有政治和历史文化原因。对该地区毒品生产和贩运进行研究,不仅有助于了解其对世界毒品市场的影响,也有助于研究塔利班和"基地"组织等恐怖极端势力的活动。     

当前阿富汗毒品问题及其影响北大核心CSSCISSCI

当前,阿富汗毒品问题形势严峻:罂粟种植泛滥、毒品走私猖獗。阿富汗的毒品生产和走私不但为该国塔利班提供了大量活动资金来源,同时造成诸多社会问题,严重影响了阿富汗的政治、经济和社会安全,使其国内安全形势更趋复杂。从目前情况看,尽管联合国非常重视,阿现政府也做了种种努力,但由于各方面的复杂原因,阿富汗毒品问题仍难以在短时期内得到解决。     

美国《2005年度全球恐怖主义形势报告》简介

2006年4月28日,美国国务院公布了《2005年度全球恐怖主义形势报告》①(以下简称“报告”),对过去一年国际恐怖主义的发展趋势和恐怖主义威胁的性质进行了战略评估,分析了恐怖主义的庇护所、美国的反恐政策以及恐怖分子试图获取大规模杀伤性武器的情况。这是自“9·11”事件以来     

国际恐怖主义问题与反恐怖斗争合作

进入新世纪,恐怖主义乌云仍浓重地笼罩着全球。中亚、南亚、非洲不断发生的大规模人质绑架事件,世界各地频繁的爆炸、暗杀,给国际社会、无辜民众带来极大的危害。恐怖主义这个毒瘤仍在蔓延、膨胀,对世界和平与发展构成重大威胁。 面对日益猖獗的恐怖活动,国际社会一直在努力寻找打击恐怖主义的有效途径,特别     

Terrorism and trust

Trust enables us to simplify and understand complicated realities and orientate ourselves in them, which we do through symbolic systems, including myth and religion. Terrorism results when those systems generate extreme distrust, especially between ethnic or religious groups. Within nation-states pre-conditions of trust include normative coherence, stability, openness and accountability. In international relations these pre-conditions are more difficult to establish. But it is still possible. The process usually includes reaction to a crisis, the creation of good personal relationships between leaders, mutual concessions, well-documented agreements with provision for verification, and opportunities for populations to get to know each other.     

Terrorism and Profiling

A key problem for counterterrorism is how large numbers of individuals can be screened most efficiently to discover terrorists. This question arises at security checkpoints of all kinds, from roadblocks to airline security counters. Some argue that certain categories of individuals, for instance, young Muslim men in the airline context, should be screened more heavily than others. Others deride this as racial profiling, and argue that any such scheme would be easily evaded. I examine a model of searching for terrorists among a population divided into categories that vary in their potential reliability or ease of recruitment as agents of terrorist attacks. The equilibria in the model feature profiling, in that different categories are searched with different intensities. Practical difficulties in implementing a rational profiling scheme are discussed.     

Surveying American State Police Agencies About Terrorism Threats,Terrorism Sources,and Terrorism Definitions

This study presents American state police agencies' perceptions about three significant terrorism and public safety issues. First, we asked about the threat posed by specified extremist groups nationally and to their state. We asked about the number of such groups and their supporters, and the number of activities each group participates in during a typical year in their state. We also asked about the number of criminal incidents each group commits and the number of their supporters arrested in a typical year. Second, we asked the agencies to rate the usefulness of fifteen specified terrorism sources. Third, we queried the agencies about their views of eight terrorism definitions. These data were collected by surveying the fifty state police agencies in the United States. We discovered widespread concern about the criminal activities of various extremist groups, with a particular concern about the threat of Islamic jihadists. Interestingly, although the top rated threat was Islamic jihadists, the respondents indicated that other types of groups were much more criminally active. Further, respondents indicated that various open and non-open sources were valuable terrorism sources. Finally, most respondents reacted more favorably to official terrorism definitions—especially the FBI's—as opposed to academic definitions. We conclude with a discussion of the policy implications of our findings and we outline directions for future research.     

Pathways Out of Terrorism in Northern Ireland and the Basque Country: The Misrepresentation of the Irish Model

This article focuses on the reasons why the attempt to achieve the end of ETA's violence in the Basque Country during the mid- to late-1990s was unsuccessful when compared to the IRA's case in Northern Ireland. It argues that the different roles played by Basque and Irish nationalism in that decade and the distortion of the Irish model by Basque nationalist parties and the terrorist organization ETA were decisive in this outcome. The radicalisation of constitutional nationalism in the Basque region, as opposed to the constitutionalisation of radical nationalism that was a key factor in the achievement of the consensus enshrined in the 1998 Belfast Agreement, contributed to the continuation of terrorism. Contrary to the spirit of this Agreement, Basque nationalists moved away from an existing consensus with non nationalist parties around the principle of full development of the Basque autonomy strengthening ETA's will to carry on with their campaign.     

当前国际恐怖与反恐斗争的特点与趋势

当前国际恐怖势力仍呈蔓延之势,国际恐怖活动与伊拉克、阿富汗等地区热点相互作用,使国际反恐斗争形势更加严峻。美国、欧盟、俄罗斯等不断调整各自的反恐战略与措施,国际反恐合作继续加强,并取得了一定进展,但国际反恐合作分歧犹存,反恐斗争将长期化、复杂化。     

重新定义恐怖主义

长期以来,学术界存在着这样的观点,一是认为给恐怖主义下定义没有必要,理论意义和实践意义都不大;二是认为要在国际范围内给恐怖主义找到一个客观的定义几乎是不可能的。本文意在强调,建立一个客观的、能为国际社会所接受的恐怖主义定义不是没有希望的;而一个有效的、反对恐怖主义的国际联合行动迫切需要这样一个定义。本文认为,恐怖主义不仅仅是一种政治暴力行为,还是一种社会思潮和政治主张,忽略这一点将会给反恐斗争带来许多“盲点”。     

恐怖主义与宗教问题

自9·11事件以后，“宗教恐怖主义”；“伊斯兰恐怖主义”等似是而非的说法颇为流行。但从历史上看，恐怖主义与宗教并无任何必然联系。当代国际恐怖主义中，带有宗教色彩或打着宗教旗号的，可分为三类与民族分离主义相结合的、以宗教极端主义为主的和膜拜团体的恐怖主义。究其产生根源，则是政治和经济利益的冲突。