杀人犯罪热点模式实证研究

古今中外,杀人是一种最令民众感到恐惧的严重暴力犯罪。杀人犯罪牵涉较广,成因复杂,通过科学实证研究探寻杀人犯罪热点模式,可以抓住杀人犯罪形成机制的重点问题,促进对杀人犯罪有针对性地防控。立足C市72件杀人犯罪案件,发现杀人犯罪存在如下热点模式:被害人促发作用不是重要问题,具有暴力亚文化的犯罪人与被害人之间重叠性的攻击行为是陌生者之间杀人的主要促因;情感纠葛才是关系密切者杀人的主要动因。因此需要据此采取对应的杀人犯罪防控对策。     

犯罪热点研究进展综述

热点警务将警力资源有针对性地置于犯罪聚集区域(即“犯罪热点”)以取得最大化的犯罪预防收益.犯罪热点研究进展体现在五个方面,即犯罪热点含义由现实到虚拟的发展、犯罪热点范围由宏观到微观的发展、犯罪热点治理手段由单一到多元的发展、犯罪热点治理评估由简单到科学的发展以及对犯罪热点治理的质疑由犯罪转移到合法性缺失的发展.     

浅谈城市犯罪空间防控的机理

犯罪行为是最严重的违法行为,对社会的危害性程度最高,所以人类最早产生的法律制度就是以对犯罪行为的控制与惩罚作为主要目的的。随着社会的发展、知识的更新、生活的地域性特征变化等,犯罪行为的种类增多、危害性程度加深,于是如何预防犯罪成为最为重要的法律任务和社会任务,而犯罪空间防控是有效与便于执行的应对策略,对这个问题的研究也就成为了法学家与法律家的重要担当。     

犯罪制图技术在犯罪情报分析中的应用

犯罪制图技术依托空间地理信息系统技术,对犯罪数据信息进行加工处理,以地图形式提供警方犯罪空间规律,是服务警方决策的一种犯罪情报分析方法,是一种结合多门学科理论的犯罪情报分析技术。犯罪制图技术的理论来源是犯罪空间情报分析理论,犯罪空间情报分析是犯罪情报分析的重要组成部分。犯罪制图技术在犯罪情报分析中有着多角度多方向的应用,宏观犯罪情报分析和微观情报分析,犯罪人情报分析,系列犯罪分析和犯罪热点地区分析。犯罪制图技术在未来有着巨大潜力,其应用发展前景在于高度专门化和高度综合化。     

城中村犯罪热点研究:以深圳L村为例

城中村一直被笼统地描述为犯罪高发区。利用深圳L村2007、2008年的犯罪记录,发现城中村的犯罪并不是平均分布的,城中村中居住区的犯罪密度最高,其次为商业区和村落周边区域,工业区的犯罪密度最低。城中村的犯罪热点主要集中在居住区、商业区等人员密集的区域、村落周边等偏僻地点。犯罪热点形成的原因在于,偏僻的地理位置、复杂的地理环境、高度拥挤的居住环境导致区域的监控能力弱,犯罪容易实施。从犯罪预防的角度,对不同区域的热点,应提供不同的解决途径,居住区的犯罪防御应主要解决防盗问题,商业区主要解决欺诈和打架问题,周边地区应主要解决抢劫问题。     

城市犯罪之移动空间盲区及其空间防控——由陈水总一案展开

本文以陈水总一案展开,试图分析城市犯罪移动空间盲区形成的原因及对其进行犯罪预防的必要性,在说明对城市犯罪可以进行犯罪预防的理论基础这一前提下提出针对移动空间盲区的犯罪预防措施。除了一些具有共同性的措施外,在对个性要求上,不同于以往区分不同类型的移动空间盲区而是根据在移动空间上所可能发生的不同类型的犯罪所采取的措施,以达预防犯罪的目的。     

网络犯罪的刑法解释空间向度研究

社会空间能够形塑法律事实和法律概念。网络空间的社会性使网络犯罪的事实和概念得以出现和生成。网络犯罪具有计算机作为犯罪对象、计算机作为犯罪主体和计算机作为犯罪工具三种类型。网络犯罪是对传统线下犯罪的进化:由于网络空间中的虚拟性、平台性、智能性、复制性,刑法的空间效力面临虚置危险,犯罪的行为主体转向网络平台,犯罪的行为构造发生松动重组,刑罚的裁量基准愈加重叠多样。对此,刑法应当兼顾立法技术和解释能力。在解释论上,一要认知网络本质,二要重视案件事实。隐喻既是事实分析方法,也是法律解释思想:通过将陌生的线上事物转化为熟悉的线下事物,使案件事实向法律规范靠近;通过释放法律关于线上事物的隐喻含义,将法律规范向案件事实拉近。     

探析网络犯罪的成因与防控对策

近年来,随着网络的高速发展,网络犯罪已成为一个备受人们关注的问题。本文从系统论的角度分析了网络犯罪的成因,同时提出针对网络犯罪的防控对策。     

农村留守少年犯罪成因及防控对策

农村留守儿童的犯罪问题已引起社会的关注。本文对农村留守儿童犯罪的原因作出了分析，认为学校教育的畸形发展、家庭教育的严重缺失以及不良社会环境等因素是造成留守儿童犯罪的主要原因。同时提出了预防其犯罪的具体对策。     

农村留守少年犯罪成因及防控对策

农村留守儿童的犯罪问题已引起社会的关注.本文对农村留守儿童犯罪的原因作出了分析,认为学校教育的畸形发展、家庭教育的严重缺失以及不良社会环境等因素是造成留守儿童犯罪的主要原因.同时提出了预防其犯罪的具体对策.     

Hot Spots of Crime and Place‐Based Prevention

The August Vollmer Award Address is intended to focus on contributions to justice and on the recipient's research and policy experiences. This contribution begins with the recipient recapping his personal journey to recognizing hot spots of crime and their importance for prevention. He then goes on to summarize the “law of crime concentration” and its importance for the logic model underlying this approach. He describes the seminal Minneapolis Hot Spots Patrol Experiment and the subsequent evaluation research in hot‐spots policing and place‐based prevention more generally that led to its broad acceptance as an effective crime prevention strategy. Finally, the author turns to key unanswered questions in place‐based prevention, focusing on police legitimacy, identifying jurisdictional effects, and emphasizing the importance of harnessing informal social controls.     

The Influence of Temporal Specification on the Identification of Crime Hot Spots for Program Evaluations: A Test of Longitudinal Stability in Crime Patterns

Journal of Quantitative Criminology - Longitudinal studies from the criminology of place suggest crime hot spots are repeatedly found in the same locations within cities over extended periods of...     

职务犯罪成因调查分析

当前在我国,职务犯罪有上升的趋势,犯罪人数越来越多、级别越来越高、涉案数额越来越大,其社会危害性越来越严重,究其原因是多方面的。本文作者在调查研究的基础上,对职务犯罪的成因进行了深入分析,对预防职务犯罪有重要参考价值。     

Foot Patrol in Violent Crime Hot Spots: The Longitudinal Impact of Deterrence and Posttreatment Effects of Displacement

This study revisited the Philadelphia Foot Patrol Experiment and explored the longitudinal deterrent effects of foot patrol in violent crime hot spots using Sherman's (1990) concepts of initial and residual deterrence decay as a theoretical framework. It also explored whether the displacement uncovered during the initial evaluation decayed after the experiment ended. Multilevel growth curve models revealed that beats staffed for 22 weeks had a decaying deterrent effect during the course of the experiment, whereas those staffed for 12 weeks did not. None of the beats had residual deterrence effects relative to the control areas. The displacement uncovered had decayed during the 3 months after the experiment, and it is theoretically plausible that previously displaced offenders returned to the original target areas causing inverse displacement. These results are discussed in the context of Durlauf and Nagin's (2011) recent proposal that prison sentences should be shortened, mandatory minimum statutes repealed, and the cost savings generated by these policy changes shifted into policing budgets to convey more effectively the certainty of detection. It is concluded that if Durlauf and Nagin's proposal is to succeed, then more holistic policing strategies would likely be necessary. Foot patrol as a specific policing tactic seems to fit nicely into a variety of policing paradigms, and suggestions for incorporating them to move beyond strictly enforcement‐based responses are presented.     

黑社会性质犯罪成因及控制体系研究

黑社会性质犯罪 ,是世界各国普遍关注的一个严峻社会问题。近年来 ,黑社会性质犯罪在我国呈现出日趋泛滥的态势 ,严重地破坏了社会秩序和生产生活秩序。作为一种有组织犯罪 ,黑社会性质犯罪不仅具有独特的行为特征 ,其防范对策和控制方略与其他一般团伙犯罪也有较大区别。     

在校大学生犯罪的原因与预防

近年来,大学生犯罪率呈上升趋势。纠其原因,和大学生的生理特点、心理特点以及大学生所处的社会环境有着密切的关系。鉴于大学生犯罪原因的复杂性,对大学生犯罪应实施预防的系统工程。在这一系统工程中,包括预测系统、预防系统与控制系统。具体的措施为:从心理咨询工作的开展到校园文化的净化,从关注高校管理体制到增强大学生的法制教育,从深化高校的全面改革到治理高校的周边环境。     

Hot Spots of Juvenile Crime: A Longitudinal Study of Arrest Incidents at Street Segments in Seattle,Washington

Recent studies have shown that crime is concentrated at micro level units of geography defined as hot spots. Despite this growing evidence of the concentration of crime at place, studies to date have dealt primarily with adult crime or have failed to distinguish between adult and juvenile offenses. In this paper, we identify crime incidents in which a juvenile was arrested at street segments in Seattle, Washington, over a 14-year period, to assess the extent to which officially recorded juvenile crime is concentrated at hot spots. Using group-based trajectory analysis, we also assess the stability and variability of crime at street segments over the period of the study. Our findings suggest that officially recorded juvenile crime is strongly concentrated. Indeed, just 86 street segments in Seattle include one-third of crime incidents in which a juvenile was arrested during the study period. While we do observe variability over time in trajectories identified in the study, we also find that high rate juvenile crime street segments remain relatively stable across the 14 years examined. Finally, confirming the importance of routine activity theory in understanding the concentration of juvenile crime in hot spots, we find a strong connection between high rate trajectory groups and places likely to be a part of juvenile activity spaces. Though place-based crime prevention has not been a major focus of delinquency prevention, our work suggests that it may be an area with great promise.     

Crime Places in Context: An Illustration of the Multilevel Nature of Hot Spot Development

Objectives

The present study provides an illustration of a statistical test of the Brantinghams’ theory about the formation of hotspots and the effects that nodes, paths, and environmental backcloth have on their development.

Methods

We used multilevel Poisson regression analysis to explain variation in the count of incidents at each address. Place-level proximity to nodes and paths was measured by using the Euclidian distance from each location to the closest carry-out liquor store, on-premises drinking establishment, and bus route. The broader environmental backcloth was represented by various census block-group characteristics, including density of commercial land use. A three-way place-level interaction as well as a cross-level interaction involving all four key independent variables were used to estimate the Brantinghams’ concept of the overlay of nodes, paths, and backcloth.

Results

The three-way interaction involving the distance to the closest on-premises liquor establishment, the distance to closest carry-out liquor facility, and the distance to the closest bus route was significantly and negatively related to place-level crime incidents. This three-way interaction had effects which varied across neighborhood contexts, with stronger negative effects on crime occurring in neighborhoods characterized by high levels of commercial density.

Conclusion

This study supported the notion of a multilevel theory of crime places and has implications for more effectively addressing crime. In particular, those places with multiple nodes and paths in their proximal environments and dense commercial land within their broader environments likely need additional crime prevention measures to get the same benefit relative to places with multiple nodes and paths in the proximal environments yet little commercial density within their broader environment.