Political Science in China： the Domestic Scene and a World Vision

Since the reforms of 1979, the subjects of China＇s political science studies have seen remarkable development. The article attempts a qualitative analysis of the progress made in the main fields of China＇s political science studies during the last decade. It deals with theories of international relations, research into strategy and security, international political economics, theories of comparative politics, China＇s local governance etc. There is still a wide gap between the subjects of China＇s political science studies and those in the rest of the world. China＇s academic circles should do more to air domestic issues and questions in the international academic arena.     

The Political Economy of Speculative Attacks in the Developing World

This paper examines the relationship between politics and speculative attacks in developing countries. While a burgeoning literature focuses on the economic determinants of speculative behavior, little attention has been paid to the importance of political factors. I examine the response of international capital markets to electoral and partisan changes in a sample of 78 developing countries using monthly data from January 1975 to December 1998. All other things being equal, the empirical evidence indicates that speculative attacks are more likely (1) under left rather than under right governments and (2) during the period after an election as compared with all other periods. The results suggest that models developed for OECD economies can be used to understand political-economic phenomena in developing countries.     

Domestic and Systemic Determinants of Capital Controls in the Developed and Developing World

This paper examines the utility of and preference for controls on short-term capital. Recent work in international political economy has argued that the increasing internationalization of finance has constrained the ability of governments to pursue independent monetary policies. For the most part this conclusion has been reached through an examination of a small number of advanced industrialized countries. This article argues not only that the globalization of finance is far from all-encompassing but also that domestic forces play a more significant role in explaining the implementation and removal of capital controls than do systemic factors. Capital controls are more likely to be put in place by governments that repress the financial sector, that choose to maintain a fixed exchange rate, and that are facing balance-of-payments crises. These propositions are tested using a random effects probit model on a panel of ninety-one countries from 1967 to 1992.     

Opposites Do Not Attract: The Impact of Domestic Institutions, Power, and Prior Commitments on Alignment Choices

States that choose to involve themselves in an ongoing dispute do so by choosing to align with or against one of the original disputants. What factors lead states to prefer to help one side over the other? We consider the effect of the disputants' power, political and economic institutional similarities between each disputant and the aligning state, and formal alliance commitments between each disputant and the aligning state on these alignment choices. We evaluate these expectations empirically by examining the alignment choices of states that joined with one side or another in a Militarized Interstate Dispute during the period of 1816 to 1986. The results indicate that regardless of regime type, institutional similarities matter to the aligning state's decision. We also find that power concerns matter only to autocracies; democracies do not seem to base their alignment choices on the power of the sides in the dispute. Finally, the evidence indicates that the alignment choices of democracies cannot be anticipated by their prior alliance commitments, although the alignment choices of autocracies can. These results suggest interesting implications for research on the democratic peace, the determinants of threat in the international system, and the impact of selection effects. The consistent empirical evidence that institutional similarity affects alignment decisions also increases our confidence that future investigations of institutional similarity generally, rather than an exclusive focus on joint democracy, will prove fruitful.     

Political Freedom, Political Instability, and Policy Uncertainty: A Study of Political Institutions and Private Investment in Developing Countries

This paper examines whether democracy and other major characteristics of political institutions have any significant consequences for private investment. I isolate three political determinants that may affect property rights and private investment: political freedom, political instability, and policy uncertainty. The major findings in this paper can be characterized as follows: Political freedom promotes private investment, particularly through the channel of improving human capital formation. Political instability, as measured by the variability of political freedom, has a negative effect on private investment. Finally, policy uncertainty, as measured by the variability of government capacity, adversely affects private investment. These findings have been tested rigorously through using variables controlling for both domestic and international conditions.     

汇率的本质及人民币汇率机制改革

汇率是什么?这本属经济学的基本理论问题,却是当代经济学始终没有回答清楚的问题.我认为,回答这个问题还是要从经济学的逻辑起点进行剖析,即什么是货币?什么是价值?     

美国的汇率政治与人民币汇率之争

布雷顿森林体系解体之后,美元汇率问题日渐凸显,美国政府的汇率政策也发生了重大变化。在这一变化过程中,美国的汇率政治不断发展。这种汇率政治在弱势美元政策时期成为导致汇率保护主义加剧的重要原因。在中美两国之间长达十年之久的人民币汇率之争的背后,是这种汇率政治,即不同的政策主体或角色之间围绕汇率政策的出台所进行的博弈、斗争、折冲樽俎以及妥协的过程。从本质上看,最近十多年来的中美人民币汇率之争,既不是货币金融问题,也不是贸易问题,而是汇率政治问题。尽管中国在短期内难以摆脱这种汇率政治的影响,但是中国应该通过加快制度改革和结构调整,实现人民币汇率形成机制的市场化;并加强与美国政府部门的磋商、协调以及合作。     

To Devalue or to Defend? The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy

Speculative currency attacks are a regular feature of the international political economy. Nevertheless, not all speculative attacks result in a devalued currency. In many cases, politicians were willing and able to defend the exchange rate peg. I develop a model of strategic interaction between speculators in currency markets and policymakers in governments. This model indicates that speculative attacks occur when economic fundamentals are weak or when there is uncertainty about the capability and/or willingness of governments to defend the currency peg. I show that the government's decision to defend the peg reflects institutional, electoral, and partisan incentives. I test hypotheses from this model on a sample of 90 developing countries between 1985 and 1998 using a strategic probit model.     

Demography and Instability in the Developing World

Demography provides a framework for analyzing the effect of population on national security and a tool to assess how demographic trends in the developing world will influence conflict over the next twenty years. Population is connected to national security as an indicator of challenge and opportunity, a multiplier of conflict and progress, and a resource for power and prosperity. This indicator-multiplier-resource framework is then applied to the three influential demographic issues of the developing world: (1) youthful populations; (2) transitional age structures; and (3) urbanization. These diverse demographic trends reveal a growing divergence among states in the developing world and the need to continue to plan for the spectrum of warfare, though there will be an increasing number of supportive and capable states.     

Domestic Judicial Institutions and Human Rights Treaty Violation

Democratic and autocratic states routinely violate their international agreements protecting human rights. Scholars typically link ratification and compliance behavior theoretically but test their models separately; however, if the behaviors are jointly determined then we should treat them that way empirically. We consider how domestic judiciaries influence the joint choice to ratify and comply with international human rights regimes. Using data on the ratification status of states under the Convention Against Torture (CAT), states' torture practices, and a series of measures of judicial effectiveness, we examine whether legal institutions are likely to constrain state behavior and by implication raise the costs of ratification.     

Rethinking the Relationship between Inclusive Institutions and Political Violence

Abstract

In this paper we empirically reexamine the debate over the conflict reducing properties of inclusive political institutions. We examine the purported violence reducing effects of proportional representation (PR) electoral systems, parliamentarism, and federalism, conditioning their effects on ethnic fractionalization and whether a country is conflict prone. In other words, are these institutions more effective in countries that have already experienced major conflict or are they more effective in preventing conflict in countries that have not experienced major conflict? Using a data set that includes a sample of 81 countries and 2488 observations from 1973 to 2018, we test the conditional effects of proportional representation electoral systems, parliamentarism and federalism conditioning these by ethnicity and whether the country has experienced a major conflict (i.e., civil war). We find that these institutions have little effect on reducing the number of riots or political deaths, but PR electoral systems reduces ethnic violence when ethnic fractionalization is high. On the other hand PR electoral systems and parliamentarism reduce ethnic violence in conflict prone countries, but federalism increases the likelihood of ethnic violence. We discuss the implications of these findings with regard to arguments regarding inclusive power sharing arrangements and violence in post conflict environments.     

2003年的国际政治形势

20 0 3年是国际“动荡年”。从年初的伊拉克战争 ,到年末的格鲁吉亚政权更迭 ;从朝核危机升级、缓解的戏剧性变化 ,到恐怖主义再掀恶浪 ,世界无不处处云波诡谲 ,充满变数。尽管如此 ,“云动天不动 ,船移岸不移” ,世界总体和平、总体稳定的大势仍保持不变 ,尤其是大国关系仍保持总体稳定。和平、发展、繁荣、进步仍是世界潮流 ,是时代主旋律。一、伊拉克战争牵动全局 ,美国“新帝国”战略出师受挫　　美国从 2 0 0 2年末起 ,就开始为“打伊倒萨”造势。美谋求“打伊倒萨” ,其主要战略诉求有四重。一是历史诉求 :老布什在 1 991年发动海湾战…     

The Rise of the Developing World

In the paper, the formation and causes of world economic system and order are deeply analyzed. Professor Su quotes some experts on international relations to prove his arguments. In the last part of his paper, Dr. Su spends a lot to expound the world economic system and the rise of the developing world in the new century.     

"汇率制度两极化":拉美国家的经验研究

一　“汇率制度两极化”理论据国际货币基金组织 ( IMF)的统计资料 ,在1 5 9个成员中 ,1 991年有 98个成员采用“软钉住”汇率制 ,36个成员采用浮动汇率制 ,其余 2 5个成员采用“硬钉住”汇率制。而在 1 999年年底 ,在1 85个成员中 ,情况发生很大的变化 ,只有 63个成员实行“软钉住”汇率制 ,采用浮动汇率制的成员数增至 77个 ,采用“硬钉住”汇率制的成员数增至 45个。1 这就是近年来在国际经济学界流行的“中间制度消失”论或“汇率制度两极化”理论的主要依据。这些理论最早是由埃切格林提出的 ,其核心观点是 ,惟一可能长期维持的汇率…     

国际汇率安排和人民币国际化

以1971年8月15日美国宣布美元同黄金脱钩为标志,布雷顿森林固定汇率体制宣告结束,全球进入浮动汇率体制安排.由于美元在国际货币和金融事务中的重要地位,现行国际汇率体制实际上是以美元为主导的浮动汇率体制.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Democratization in Emerging Market Countries

We examine some of the consequences of financial globalization for democratization in emerging market economies by focusing on the currency markets of four Asian countries at different stages of democratic development. Using political data of various kinds—including a new events data series—and the Markov regime switching model from empirical macroeconomics, we show that in young and incipient democracies politics continuously causes changes in the probability of experiencing two different currency market equilibria: a high volatility "contagion" regime and a low volatility "fundamentals" regime. The kind of political events that affect currency market equilibration varies cross-nationally depending on the degree to which the polity of a country is democratic and its policymaking transparent. The results help us better gauge how and the extent to which democratization is compatible with financial globalization.     

东南亚小型经济体汇率安排的共性研究

一、问题的提出自东南亚金融危机以来,东亚货币合作已经成为目前学术界的一个热点问题。McKinnon(1998)认为在亚洲抑制金融危机的关键在于中国和日本的汇率政策,强调日元兑美元汇率的稳定不仅有助于恢复日本经济,也有助于组织     

华人政治文化和关于马来世界的华人学术著作

中国和马来世界相互关系的重要事实是:他们保持了至少1 500年虽反复无常但基本良好的贸易关系,以及随后一个世纪的不信任和疏远。中国和各个马来国家的政治文化转变对这种关系的转变产生了决定性的影响,这些都反映在华人的学术著作中。也许我们可以指望,在新的条件和情况下,中国和马来世界将能找到新的出发点来重建一种持续稳定的关系。     

Openness, Welfare Spending, and Inequality in the Developing World

How does government social spending affect inequality in this era of globalization? This article investigates the relationship between openness, government social expenditures (i.e., education, health, and social security and welfare), and income distribution through a time-series cross-sectional panel data set for 35 less developed countries (LDCs) from 1972 to 1996. I compare these findings to the redistributive effects of social spending in 11 advanced industrialized economies. The results show that while all categories of social spending help improve income distribution in richer countries, the effects of social spending are much less favorable in LDCs. Only spending on education in LDCs encourages a more favorable distribution of income in the face of globalization. I argue that the pressures of a more competitive global economy increase incentives for more redistributive education spending, whereas publicly sponsored health programs and, particularly, social security and welfare programs confront greater political lobbying and clientelism.     

伊拉克战争与世界政治主要矛盾

本文以当前的伊拉克战争为案例 ,从梳理冷战后美国战略家的认识入手 ,对当今世界政治主要矛盾进行了初步论证。认为 ,在全球化纵深发展的今天 ,谈论“世界政治”比“国际政治”更有意义。由于世界政治包含“国际政治”和“超国际政治”两个范畴 ,因此当今世界是两对主要政治矛盾并存。一对是传统国际政治范畴里的称霸与反霸 (或单极与多极 )的矛盾 ,矛盾双方分别是美国与多强 ;另一对是超国际政治范畴里的各国联合应对全球性难题的矛盾 ,当前主要集中在恐怖与反恐这对矛盾上。伊拉克战争使两对矛盾空前激化并相互重叠 ,导致世界战略格局出现强力颠簸。在这两对矛盾中 ,中国都不是焦点 ,这是中国战略机遇期得以保持的根本前提