Crime is the Problem: Homicide,Acquisitive Crime,and Economic Conditions

A question that emerges from recent research on the relationship between economic conditions and street crimes committed for monetary gain concerns the effect of changing economic conditions on violent crime. I propose that the economy stimulates violent crime indirectly through its effect on acquisitive crime. This hypothesis is evaluated in fixed-effects panel models of change in acquisitive crime and homicide rates between 1970 and 2006. The analysis indicates that collective perceptions of economic conditions have a significant effect on an index of acquisitive crime and an indirect effect, through acquisitive crime, on homicide. Consistent with this result, the effect of collective economic perceptions is stronger for felony than argument-related homicides. A promising focus for future research is the role of underground markets in the production of both property and violent crime.

Sanctions, Perceptions, and Crime: Implications for Criminal Deterrence

Objectives

A survey of empirical research concerning the determinants of an individual’s perceptions of the risk of formal sanctions as a consequence of criminal behavior. The specific questions considered are: (1) How accurate is people’s knowledge about criminal sanctions? (2) How do people acquire and modify their subjective probabilities of punishment risk? (3) How do individuals act on their risk perceptions in specific criminal contexts?

Methods

Three broad classes of extant studies are reviewed. The first is the relationship between objective sanctions, sanction enforcement, and risk perceptions—research that includes calibration studies and correlational studies. The second is the relationship between punishment experiences (personal and vicarious) and change in risk perceptions, in particular, research that relies on formal models of Bayesian learning. The third is the responsiveness of would-be offenders to immediate environmental cues—a varied empirical tradition that encompasses vignette research, offender interviews, process tracing, and laboratory studies.

Results

First, research concerning the accuracy of risk perceptions suggests that the average citizen does a reasonable job of knowing what criminal penalties are statutorily allowed, but does a quite poor job of estimating the probability and magnitude of the penalties. On the other hand, studies which inquire about more common offenses (alcohol and marijuana use) from more crime-prone populations (young people, offenders) reveal that perceptions are consistently better calibrated to actual punishments. Second, research on perceptual updating indicates that personal experiences and, to a lesser degree, vicarious experiences with crime and punishment are salient determinants of changes in risk perceptions. Specifically, individuals who commit crime and successfully avoid arrest tend to lower their subjective probability of apprehension. Third, research on the situational context of crime decision making reveals that risk perceptions are highly malleable to proximal influences which include, but are not limited to, objective sanction risk. Situational risk perceptions appear to be particularly strongly influenced by substance use, peer presence, and arousal level.

Conclusions

The perceptual deterrence tradition is theoretically rich, and has been renewed in the last decade by creative empirical tests from a variety of social scientific disciplines. Many knowledge gaps and limitations remain, and ensuing research should assign high priority to such considerations as sampling strategies and the measurement of risk perceptions.     

Focused Deterrence Strategies and Crime Control

Research Summary

Focused deterrence strategies are increasingly being applied to prevent and control gang and group‐involved violence, overt drug markets, and individual repeat offenders. Our updated examination of the effects of focused deterrence strategies on crime followed the systematic review protocols and conventions of the Campbell Collaboration. Twenty‐four quasi‐experimental evaluations were identified in this systematic review. The results of our meta‐analysis demonstrate that focused deterrence strategies are associated with an overall statistically significant, moderate crime reduction effect. Nevertheless, program effect sizes varied by program type and were smaller for evaluations with more rigorous research designs.

Policy Implications

The available empirical evidence suggests these strategies generate noteworthy crime reduction impacts and should be part of a broader portfolio of crime reduction strategies available to policy makers and practitioners. Investments still need to be made, however, to strengthen the overall rigor of program evaluations and improve our understanding of key program activities associated with observed crime reduction impacts.     

Prison Conditions, Capital Punishment, and Deterrence

Previous research has attempted to identify a deterrent effectof capital punishment. We argue that the quality of life inprison is likely to have a greater impact on criminal behaviorthan the death penalty. Using state-level panel data coveringthe period 1950–90, we demonstrate that the death rateamong prisoners (the best available proxy for prison conditions)is negatively correlated with crime rates, consistent with deterrence.This finding is shown to be quite robust. In contrast, thereis little systematic evidence that the execution rate influencescrime rates in this time period.     

Aggressive Policing and the Deterrence of Crime

Recent analyses of the relationship between crime and an aggressive patrol strategy have led to no single conclusion concerning the deterrent power of aggressive policing. This research adds to that debate by exploring the effects of a variety of aggressive patrol tactics on several different crimes. The empirical analysis, based on cross-sectional data from sixty urban neighborhoods, indicates that there appears to be no stable complex of police actions that constitute an aggressive patrol strategy. However, one form of police action usually included under the rubric of aggressive patrol—suspicion stops—may indeed deter certain types of criminal activity.     

我国青少年犯罪及其防治探讨

本文认为由于对青少年犯罪问题没有足够重视,致使青少年教育工作存在不少问题:青少年违法犯罪增多,且呈低龄化、团伙化、暴力化,手段残忍,社会危害大。在此,笔者探讨了青少年犯罪率上升的原因,并提出了防治犯罪的几点对策。     

Serious and Violent Juvenile Crime: A Comprehensive Strategy

Abstract OJJDP is actively involved in the Department of Justice's “Pulling America's Communities Together” (PACT) program. Developed at the direction of Attorney General Janet Reno, this initiative is designed to provide training, technical assistance and program development resources to participating jurisdictions address violence in their communities. Four jurisdictions have been selected to date: Denver, Omaha, Atlanta, and the District of Columbia. In addition to making its wide range of training and technical assistance resources available to these jurisdictions, OJJDP is helping the sites assess their juvenile justice systems and develop plans to implement the Comprehensive Strategy. To help jurisdictions begin assessing their systems and existing youth violence problems, OJJDP is preparing a juvenile violence fact book, called “The State of Juvenile Justice.” In addition to presenting statistical data on the nature and scope of the problem across America, the fact book will encapsule program and policy positions of major juvenile justice professional associations regarding youth violence. Such knowledge will assist local jurisdictions in developing their own positions, strategies and programs. In addition to NCJFCJ, other groups such as the American Probation and Parole Association, the National Juvenile Detention Association, the American Correctional Association, and the Coalition of Juvenile Justice State Advisory Groups have been invited to participate in development of The State of Juvenile Justice document.     

Juvenile firesetters: Crime scene actions and offender characteristics

Purpose. To investigate whether and to what extent the thematic structure of crime scene actions in arsons identified in Canter and Fritzon (1998) is replicated for juvenile firesetters and to explore whether any associations between the crime scene action themes and offender characteristics would be evident. Methods. The crime scene actions and offender characteristics of 61 male and 5 female juvenile firesetters (aged 6‐17 years) were examined. The data were drawn from a larger database originally collected and content analysed in Fritzon (1998). In total, 43 dichotomous crime scene actions, 17 offender background characteristics and offender criminal record variables had been coded. Smallest space analysis was employed to examine the configuration of crime scene action and offender characteristic variables. The associations between the crime scene actions and offender characteristics, as well as the criminal record variables, were analysed using the correlation. Results. Distinct structural themes for crime scene actions were found in juvenile firesetting, similar to those identified in Canter and Fritzon (1998). Contrary to Canter and Fritzon, only two groups of background characteristics were identified, depressed and delinquent, the latter being more common and related to an instrumental form of firesetting. The expressive form of firesetting was associated with offenders' psychopathology and female gender. The presence of a crime scene action theme was associated with the offender's age. Conclusions. The structural themes of firesetting behaviour appear to transpire early. The background characteristics of juvenile firesetters indicate that juvenile firesetting is often associated with antisocial behaviour and psychopathology, deserving, therefore, disparate prevention, intervention and investigation programmes.     

The Relationship Between Crime and Electronic Gaming Expenditure: Evidence from Victoria, Australia

Gambling in Australia is a significant economic activity. Expenditure on its many forms is sizeable and has undergone sustained periods of expansion. At the same time, the structure of the gambling industry has undergone substantial change, with the use of gaming facilities in local hotels and licensed clubs now representing one of the most predominant forms of gambling. Despite this, and the extensive international literature on the relationships between gambling and crime, there have been relatively few studies which examine the local area effects of gaming establishments on crime in Australia. This study uses a unique set of data from the Australian state of Victoria, a region in which local area expansion of gaming networks has been considerable since 1991, to investigate the relationship between gaming machine expenditure and various types of crime in 1996, 2001 and 2006. One particular focus is that of income-generating crime, defined here as theft, fraud, breaking and entering, forgery, false pretences, larceny and robbery. After controlling for a host of statistical issues, our results indicate a consistent positive and significant relationship between gaming and crime rates, especially income-generating crime rates, at the local level.     

违法阻却事由与犯罪构成体系

违法与责任是犯罪的两大支柱,认定犯罪应当从违法到责任;是否存在违法阻却事由,属于是否具有违法性的判断,因此,应当在违法构成要件之后,接着讨论违法阻却事由。在考察全部构成要件之后才讨论违法阻却事由的做法,不利于对违法性的判断,也不利于保障行为人的自由。     

Self-Reported Delinquency and Alienation: A Study of Juvenile Crime

Based on a probability sample of 7542 from the seventh, ninth, 11th grade students of the Toledo metropolitan area, this study, using self-reported delinquency, investigated the relationship between alienation and deviant behavior. A positive association between alienation (normlessness and societal estrangement) and self-reported delinquency were observed. The degree of association and the direction still maintained when controlled for the age and sex of the students.     

Crime Clearance and Temporal Variation in Police Investigative Workload: Evidence from National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) Data

Objectives

Police workload’s relationship with crime clearance has been studied widely. In the challenging environment now facing police, even small and possibly temporary changes in investigative workload could harm clearance. However existing workload-clearance research either used only a yearly average that obscures temporal variability in caseload, or explored proxy rather than direct measures of workload’s short-term variation. Our improved workload measures capture caseload’s daily changes as crimes are reported, cleared, or remain uncleared but reach the end of active investigation. We examine relationships between clearance and both long- and short-term variability in workload.

Methods

Using NIBRS and LEMAS data, we calculated between-agency (typical or long-term) and time-varying, within-agency (daily fluctuating or short-term) workload measures. We used these and other agency/jurisdiction- and incident-level variables in multi-level survival analysis of clearance by arrest for serious violent incidents from 2007 NIBRS.

Results

Both workload measures were significantly and negatively related to the clearance hazard rate; higher long- and short-term workloads are associated with reduced chance of a case being cleared. The estimated relationship between longterm workload and clearance became progressively stronger (more negative) as the crime incident’s legal seriousness decreased. However, estimates indicated greater sensitivity of the clearance hazard to short-term workload fluctuations for more serious crimes, though the workload-clearance relationship remained negative for all crime types.

Conclusion

Crime clearance should be considered by police agency planners when addressing workload through staffing decisions. Refinement of our workload measures will require additional information, and should be considered in future agency- and incident-level data collection.

     

Crime trends and the effect of mandated drug treatment: Evidence from California's Substance Abuse and Crime Prevention Act

The Substance Abuse and Crime Prevention Act (SACPA), implemented statewide in California in July 2001, mandates drug treatment rather than incarceration for certain nonviolent drug offenders. Critics of the legislation suggest that crime increased as a result of the legislation, but researchers have largely ignored this issue. Utilizing time series methodology applied across several independent data sets from Orange County, California, the effects of SACPA on crime were assessed. Results indicate that significant increases in commercial burglaries and paraphernalia arrests may have been attributed to SACPA, but the overall pattern does not support a conclusion that crime increased markedly.