AN EXAMINATION OF OFFENSE SPECIALIZATION USING MARGINAL LOGIT MODELS*

Research on offense specialization has concluded that there is a great deal of versatility in offending. Although the preponderance of evidence supports versatility, some research points to a small but significant tendency to specialize. Beyond this observation there is little consensus over the degree of offense specialization, the similarities and differences between people who commit violent acts and those who engage in other criminal behavior, or the extent to which general causal processes are sufficient to explain variation in diverse forms of crime and delinquency. At the heart of the confusion is the fact that criminal behaviors across a wide spectrum are positively correlated with one another. In our opinion, the conclusion that general offending trumps offense specialization is the result of research designs that predetermined such a conclusion. We propose an alternative method, marginal logit modeling, that supports many desirable features suited to the investigation of offense specialization. We analyze nine self‐reported delinquent behaviors (with a tenth category representing “No Offense”) from the Add Health study. We show that violent offenders are more likely to engage in additional violent offenses, nonviolent offenders are more likely to engage in additional nonviolent offenses. For some offense types, we find no evidence of a tendency to commit both violent and nonviolent offending. For others, the offense generalization effect is weak compared to the offense specialization effect.     

INTEGRATING CELERITY,IMPULSIVITY, AND EXTRALEGAL SANCTION THREATS INTO A MODEL OF GENERAL DETERRENCE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE*

We propose a model that integrates the extralegal consequences from conviction and impulsivity into the traditional deterrence framework. The model was tested with 252 college students, who completed a survey concerning drinking and driving. Key findings include the following: (1) Although variation in sanction certainty and severity predicted offending, variation in celerity did not; (2) the extralegal consequences from conviction appear to be at least as great a deterrent as the legal consequences; (3) the influence of sanction severity diminished with an individual's “present‐orientation”; and (4) the certainty of punishment was far more robust a deterrent to offending than was the severity of punishment.     

Exhibitionism: findings from a Midwestern police contact sample

This study used a police sample to examine offense characteristics, recidivism rates, and other types of sexual offending among individuals suspected of exhibitionism. The sample consisted of 202 incidents of indecent exposure perpetrated by 106 identified individuals. Demographic information showed that one quarter of the sample had symptoms of a mental illness and one quarter had a history of substance abuse. More than 84% of the sample had other nonsexual criminal charges. Approximately 30% of the perpetrators were charged for more than one exposure incident. Masturbating during the offense, exposing to child victims, and speaking to the victim did not show any relationship to the occurrence of more sexually aggressive behaviors. However, individuals who had subsequent rape or molestation charges (16.9%) were more likely than those who did not to have had multiple exposure incidents and a history of physical assault charges.     

A Longitudinal Exploration of the Effect of Official Processing and Sanctioning on the Academic and Criminal Careers of College Students

This study examines the effect of official processing and sanctioning on the academic and criminal careers of a sample of college students from a large university in a southeastern college town. Using a series of OLS and logistic regression models, the results indicated that offense frequency and severity are risk factors for dropping out/or being dismissed from college, whereas membership in a sorority or fraternity is a protective factor. Additional analyses demonstrated that the severity of punishment as well as the type of punishment (e.g., judicial affairs punishment, criminal justice system punishment) also had a significant effect on future offending. Study limitations and policy implications are also discussed.     

Specialized Versus Versatile Intergenerational Transmission of Violence: A New Approach to Studying Intergenerational Transmission from Violent Versus Non-Violent Fathers: Latent Class Analysis

This paper investigates whether fathers who have been convicted of a violent offense transmit criminal and violent behavior more strongly than fathers who were convicted, but never for violence. First, a more traditional approach was taken where offending fathers were divided into two groups based on whether they had a violence conviction. Secondly, Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was performed to identify two classes of fathers, one of which was characterized as violent. Sons of fathers in this class had a higher risk of violent convictions compared with sons whose fathers were in the other class.     

When Formal Sanctions Encourage Violent Offending: How Violent Peers and Violent Codes Undermine Deterrence

Research focusing on deterrence has stressed the negative relationship between perceived formal sanctions and criminal behavior, ignoring the possibility that in some populations formal sanctions may serve to increase offending under some conditions. Utilizing a sample of 300 homeless street youths, the study explores if violent peers, violent values, and the culture of the street moderates the association between perceived legal sanctions and violent offending. The results suggest that violent peers, violent values, and the culture of the street condition the perceived certainty of punishment so that it leads to higher levels of violence. Further, the culture of the street conditions the relationship between perceived severity of punishment and violence. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed.     

THE CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT: A REFERENCE GROUP EFFECT AND ITS FUNCTIONAL FORM

The 1970s witnessed a renewal of interest in deterrence theory. Examining the functional form of the relationship between certainty of punishment and crime rate, Tittle and Rowe (1974) and Brown (1978) report a threshold effect: Below a certainty level of about .30 (the tipping point), they observed no relationship and above that level they observed a strong negative relationship. Unfortunately, few large cities achieve that level for most crimes. This interesting finding has rarely been followed up. Drawing on reference group theory, we extend this research by disaggregating the analysis by crime and race. While racial majorities may not experience certainty levels above the tipping point, some research suggests that racial minorities do experience such levels. Supporting this, our analysis shows a reference group effect for racial majorities and minorities and a curvilinear relationship, reflecting tipping and ceiling points, between certainty of punishment and crime rates for only racial minorities.     

IMAGES OF DANGER AND CULPABILITY: RACIAL STEREOTYPING,CASE PROCESSING,AND CRIMINAL SENTENCING*

In this paper we argue that the meaning of race in criminal justice decision making will vary depending on other offender and offense characteristics, and that differences in treatment within races may therefore be as large as differences between races. We find that, among adult drug offenders from Washington State, those white offenders who most closely resemble the stereotype of a dangerous drug offender receive significantly harsher treatment than other white offending groups, while among black offenders, it is the defendants who least resemble a dangerous drug offender who receive substantially different—in this case, less punitive—treatment than other black offenders. That is, the exceptions are made for the most serious and the least serious offenders. We discuss the implications of these findings.     

AGE,CRIMINAL CAREERS,AND POPULATION HETEROGENEITY: SPECIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF A NONPARAMETRIC,MIXED POISSON MODEL*

This article addresses three issues that are central to the criminal career debate. First, is the life course of individual offending patterns marked by distinctive periods of quiescence? Second, at the level of the individual, do offending rates vary systematically with age? In particular, is the age-crime curve single peaked or flat? Third, are chronic offenders different from less active offenders? Do offenders themselves differ in systematic ways? Using a new approach to the analysis of individual criminal careers—based on nested, mixed Poisson models in which the mixing distribution is estimated nonparametrically—we analyze a panel data set that tracks a sample of males for more than 20 years. Our results provide empirical evidence in support of some features of criminal propensity theory and some in support of conventional criminal careers theory. In support of latent-trait criminal propensity theory, the individual-level average offense rate (per unit of time) varies as a function of observable individual-level characteristics and unobservable heterogeneity among individuals, and the age trajectory of the offense rate is generally single peaked rather than flat. On the other hand, in support of conventional criminal careers theory, models that incorporate a parameter that permits periods of active as well as inactive offending across age have greater explanatory power than those that do not. In addition, the nonparametric, discrete approximation to the population distribution of unobservable heterogeneity in the individual-level mean offense rate facilitates identification of four classes of offenders—nonoffenders as well as individual-level characteristics that are unique to each group. Problems of theoretical explanation and empirical generalizability of these results are described.     

Cognitive-behavioral rehabilitation for high-risk violent offenders: an outcome evaluation of the violence prevention unit

Rehabilitation programs for adult violent offending are still novel, and few published studies examine the recidivism outcomes of those who complete such programs. This study describes a New Zealand prison program for high-risk violent men. The program is intensive and cognitive behavioral. Preliminary outcome data are presented for three indices during 2 or more years of follow-up: nonviolent reconviction, violent reconviction, and subsequent imprisonment. In comparison with untreated offenders, treated men were less likely to be reconvicted of a violent offense, and those who were took longer to fail. There was also a 12% difference in favor of the treated men on the two other indices, nonviolent reconviction and reimprisonment. The authors conclude that the program shows early promise and that further evaluation with a larger sample of treated men will be important in clarifying whether the program is having a differential impact on violent versus nonviolent offending.     

Examining the relationship between low empathy and self‐reported offending

Purpose . This paper reports the results of a study comparing measures of cognitive and affective empathy to self‐reported offending in a group of adolescents. Methods . Data on self‐reported offending and empathy were collected from 720 UK adolescents (376 males, 344 females) in Year 10 (mean age = 14.8) using anonymous questionnaires administered in a classroom setting. The prevalence of self‐reported offending was found to be consistent with results of a national level study that employed a similar methodology. The empathy scale, which was developed and validated using this sample, assessed levels of cognitive and affective empathy. Results . Males who had committed any offence had lower empathy (especially affective) than those who had not. Females who had committed any offence did not have low empathy compared to those who had not. Both males and females who had committed violence had lower empathy than males and females who had not. High‐rate male offenders had lower empathy (especially affective) than low‐rate male offenders, and high‐rate female offenders had lower empathy (especially affective) than low‐rate female offenders. For males (but not for females), the relationship between low affective empathy and violence was accounted for by the relationship between low affective empathy and a high rate of offending. Conclusions . More research comparing the empathy of males and females with their self‐reports of offending is needed, especially in prospective longitudinal studies, so that the time ordering of the effects can be established. Also, more research is needed to investigate whether the relationship between low empathy and self‐reported offending holds independent of other factors previously found to be associated with offending (e.g. low intelligence, low socio‐economic status).     

RISK PERCEPTIONS AMONG SERIOUS OFFENDERS: THE ROLE OF CRIME AND PUNISHMENT*

Previous research on the perceived certainty of punishment indicates that individuals with experience in committing crimes perceive arrest as less certain than do those without such experience. Studies assessing the influence of experiencing formal sanctions on perceptions of risk have produced mixed results. Most studies however, have not considered the experience of sanctions in conjunction with the frequency of criminal behavior. With a sample of 1,046 incarcerated felons, we examined relationships among perceived risk of arrest, arrest history, and frequency of committing crimes. Our findings suggest that it is important to measure the ratio of arrests to crimes and that perceptions of risk are formed in a manner consistent with a rational choice perspective, even in a sample of serious offenders.     

An Examination of the Influence of Veteran Status on Offense Type Among an Inmate Sample

The current study examines the relationship between military service and criminal behavior of veterans, both combat and non-combat, compared to non-veterans using a nationally representative sample of inmates. Specifically, this study examines the relationship between veteran status and crime type among inmates in state and federal institutions. While the relationship between military service and criminal behavior of veterans has received considerable attention, many have failed to differentiate between veterans who have seen combat versus those who have not. Therefore, a subsample of veterans who experienced combat during their military service is examined to better inform our understanding how combat experience might influence this relationship. Multiple counterfactual methods, including propensity score matching, were used on data from the Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities, 2004. Some significant differences exist in the types of offenses committed based on veteran status and combat experience, but in some cases contrary to expectations. Veterans were more likely to have committed a violent offense, but less likely to have committed drug offenses; whereas, combat veterans were more likely to commit a drug offense and less likely to commit a violent offense than non-combat veterans. Policy implications and recommendations for future research are explored.     

RATE OF OFFENDING IN JUVENILE CAREERS: FINDINGS OF CONSTANCY AND CHANGE IN LAMBDA *

This study examines changes in the rate of offending in a sample of 8,834 males whose official juvenile law-violating careers included 26,650 offense episodes between ages 8 and 17 The rate of offending of active offenders (i.e., lambda) varied substantially as a function of age, increasing monotonically with age. Lambda, however, was not related to the age at first offense. In fact, the average lambda was amazingly constant at each individual age level regardless of the age at which offending began or desisted. Results are discussed in the light of age-crime curves known from other data sets and from the perspective of developmental changes in the rate of offending as youths grow older.     

The Moderating Effect of Criminal Thinking on Certainty of Apprehension in Decisions to Engage in Antisocial Behavior: Replication and Extension

This study explored whether the rational (certainty of punishment) and nonrational (criminal thinking) aspects of antisocial decision‐making interact. A convenience sample of 319 undergraduates (106 men, 213 women) completed a measure of criminal thinking and responded to three fictional vignettes (i.e., cheating on a final examination in a class they were in jeopardy of failing, stealing $50 off a table in a dorm room, and selling marijuana for a friend) at three different levels of risk or certainty of apprehension (50%, 10%, and 1%). Results indicated that participants reported that they would be more likely to engage in antisocial behavior when the certainty of getting caught was low and the level of proactive (P) or reactive (R) criminal thinking was high. An interaction between certainty and criminal thinking was also observed in which the gap between lower and higher criminal thinking respondents grew as the probability of getting caught fell.     

Assessing the perceived benefits—criminal offending relationship

Deterrence theory has been a centerpiece of theoretical and empirical research in criminology. Largely due to the early work of Beccaria however, much of this research has focused on estimating the effect of the certainty of punishment, or the costs of crime, on criminal offending. Although the benefits/rewards of crime are as important as the costs, conceptualization and operationalization of this portion of the decision-making process has only recently accumulated. In an effort to provide a counterpart to the summary statements available regarding the costs of crime, this paper undertakes a statistical summary of the empirical studies that have examined the benefits/offending relationship, with specific attention paid not only to the overall relationship, but also to several key moderators. Using 40 specific estimates from 13 studies since 1990, the analysis provides evidence of a positive and significant relationship between benefits and offending, but that the overall relationship varies in several ways. Directions for future research are outlined.     

Do perceptions of punishment vary between white-collar and street crimes?

Much has been learned about the relationship between sanction threat perceptions and criminal activity, yet little remains known about the factors that are associated with sanction threat perceptions. Moreover, because most researchers had studied deterrence within the context of street crime, even less is known about the factors that relate to sanction threat perceptions for white-collar crime. This study used data from a national probability sample to examine whether the determinants of perceived sanction certainty and severity for street crime were different from white-collar crime. Using robbery and fraud as two exemplars, the findings indicated that while public perceptions of sanction certainty and severity suggested that street criminals were more likely to be caught and be sentenced to more severe sanctions than white-collar criminals, respondent's perceptions of which type of crime should be more severely punished indicated that both robbery and fraud were equally likely to be perceived ‘on par.’ Additional results indicated that the correlates of certainty and severity were more similar than different, but that the results differed according to whether respondents were asked about the punishment that white-collar offenders were likely to receive as opposed to what they should receive.     

Motives of reward among men who rape

Perceptual deterrence research attempts to measure the effect of perceived certainty and severity of punishment in preventing criminal behavior, while considering the rewards (from the perception of the offender) of committing the crime. Many studies in the area of perceptual deterrence are lacking any measure of reward, resulting in an incomplete model. This study will examine the goals of men who commit rape to better understand what compels the rapist. Respondents for this study were drawn from the population of rapists in the maximum security state penitentiaries located in two Southern states. All were surveyed concerning the rewards that would lead them to commit rape, while considering two levels of risk of apprehension. The results reveal that those who rape often have a specific motive in mind and have calculated the risks involved in committing the offense.     

DETERRENCE Theory versus Practice

Abstract Recently, some researchers have attempted to resurrect deterrence theory. These researchers have focused on the relationship between certainty and severity of punishment and subsequent rates of crime. An inverse relationship has been found, leading these researchers to conclude that penal sanctions deter crime. This paper presents another hypothesis, namely, that increases in crime may overburden existing legal machinery, and thus cause decreases in the certainty of punishment as a result. Using the same data employed in past deterrence studies, this paper demonstrates that crime may affect certainty of punishment more strongly than certainty of punishment affects the crime rate, a finding which seriously questions the ability of legal threats as currently administered in American society to deter crime.     

Wages of Sin? The Link Between Offending, Lifestyle and Violent Victimisation

In this study the authors examine whether there is a link between offending and violent victimisation. They explore the extent to which this link can be explained by differences in people's lifestyle. In keeping with recent criminological developments, they seek to explain differences in the risk of violent victimisation throughout peoples life course. For this purpose, data has been analysed on the past 25 years in the lives of 1,939 respondents, who constituted a representative sample of the Dutch population in 1996. The data was taken from the Netherlands Survey of Criminality and Law Enforcement. For each year of their life, data were recorded on the respondents' marital, fertility, residential, educational and employment history. What is more, for each year in this period, data are available on their violent victimisation and their offending. The data was analysed with multi-level models. The results show that people who engage in violent crimes and vandalism are at greater risk of being victims than people who do not and that this relationship can only be partially explained by lifestyle.