Judicial Reform as Insurance Policy: Mexico in the 1990s

After seven decades of Mexican judicial subordination, President Ernesto Zedillo in 1994 introduced judicial reforms that increased the independence and judicial review powers of the judicial branch. The willful creation of a judiciary capable of checking the power of the president and the ruling PRI appears to counter political logic; but it makes sense as a political "insurance policy" to protect the ruling party from its rivals. PRI politicians, newly unable to control political outcomes at state and local levels and unsure if they would continue to dominate the national government in the future, opted to empower the Mexican Supreme Court as a hedge against the loss of office. This article argues that the likelihood of the reforms' producing an empowered judiciary increases as the ruling party's probability of reelection declines.     

Electron democracy,populism, and generational politics: The case of the April 15, 2004 general election in South Korea

The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors that influenced the results of the April 15, 2004 general election in South Korea. A backlash after the impeachment of President Roh Moo Hyun by a coalition of opposition parties in the National Assembly (NA) was the single most important factor that determined the election outcomes. Generational and regional differences in the parties voters supported and the “defeat movement” of citizens' organizations also had significant effects on the election processes. For the first time since the early 1960s a progressive party won a majority of the NA seats. Thirty-nine women members will serve in the 17th NA, the largest number ever, and the left-wing Democratic Labor Party became the third largest party by receiving 13 percent of the proportional representation votes. Generational and ideological shifts in the power elites seem to be evident in the election results.     

The Formation of the Queensland Liberal National Party: Origins,Prospects and Implications for Australian Political Systems

In Australia, two-and-a-half party systems are common with the Liberal and National parties, usually needing to collaborate to form governments. In Queensland, the 2008 merger of two of these state parties to create the Liberal National Party (LNP) created instead a two-party system. This review examines the forces for the merger and prospects for the continuation of the LNP, the likelihood of change as a result of the Queensland merger in the remaining two-and-a-half party systems, and how the drivers of this merger compare with those observed in studies of other non-Australian party and electoral systems. Pressures and conditions for a merger similar to those in other, mostly European systems, were evident in the case of the LNP. The particular structure of the pre-merger party competition and relationships was, however, a likely factor in the merger in that two collaborating parties could avoid a contested switch in party seniority. This aspect, unlikely to occur in other Australian party systems, combined with the very limited success of the LNP in gaining and holding government since the merger, does not suggest an imperative for further mergers in other Australian systems.     

Namibia's national assembly and presidential elections 2009: Did democracy win?

National Assembly and presidential elections were held in Namibia on 27 and 28 November 2009. The former liberation movement South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO) once again secured an overwhelming majority of votes, which consolidated its de facto one-party rule. But the build up to these elections, the contestation by a newly established party and the disputed election results indicated a growing polarisation and a totalitarian tendency, which dents the positive image hitherto associated with Namibian democracy. This election analysis summarises features before, during and after the elections and puts the voting results into a party political context.     

俄罗斯国家数据安全治理的机制建设

随着信息时代的到来,数据安全成为世界各国共同关注的问题。俄罗斯政府也给予该问题高度重视。普京总统曾多次强调数据保护在推进俄罗斯经济社会数字化进程中的重要性。俄罗斯国家数据安全治理制度体现在四个重要方面:信息安全贯穿俄罗斯国家数据安全治理始终,个人数据安全突出俄罗斯国家数据安全治理特点,网络数据安全凸显网络安全与国家安全的密切关系,人工智能数据安全则是俄罗斯国家数据安全治理发展新方向。俄罗斯数据安全治理机构的权责分为三个层次:俄联邦总统(总统办公厅和国务委员会)、联邦会议、宪法法院为第一层,俄罗斯联邦中央政府及其分支部门为第二层,俄罗斯联邦地方政府及其分支部门为第三层。在相关制度的保障下,俄罗斯为保障数据安全治理从提升数据安全防御策略、打造数据安全人才培养体系、加强该领域国际合作等层面实施了一系列举措。未来一段时间,俄罗斯国家数据安全将重点聚焦于人工智能数据安全的发展。     

Don't Count Your Chickens before They're Hatched: The 2013 Italian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections

The 2013 parliamentary and presidential contests were both outstanding elections, even by Italian standards. In the former case, this was because of very high volatility and the breakthrough of the 5-Star Movement (M5S), which resulted in a hung parliament and a stalemate in the formation of a new government. In the latter, for the first time in Italian history, the incumbent President of the Republic was re-elected for a second seven-year term of office. The result of these two events was Italy's first grand coalition government, led by Enrico Letta and supported by President Napolitano. While the significance of these elections is better assessed in combination with new government's capacity to achieve economic growth and restore confidence in Italian politics, the Italian party system still remains in a state of flux.     

Government and Democracy in Mexico's Federal District, 1997–2001: Cárdenas, the PRD and the Curate's Egg

This paper analyses the challenges facing the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) administration when it became the first elected government of the Federal District in 1997. Through a daily review of press coverage between December 1997–December 2000, complemented by intensive interviewing during summer 1999, five areas of policy-making activity are analysed and evaluated. The policies entrained and their outcomes show significant advances in decentralization, devolution, and intergovernmental liaison, as well as modest improvements in environmental contamination and reduced crime, although they did not meet the high expectations generated during the Cárdenas campaign for election. However, the fresh image and invigorated confidence that his replacement Rosario Robles brought to the PRD was key in the PRD's success in the July 2nd 2000 DF elections won by López Obrador. The new administration will have to confront a more plural government structure, including five of the sixteen delegaciones and an evenly divided Legislative Assembly. López Obrador has a full six years in which to prove that a left-of-centre political party is capable of developing a 'Third Way' of governance in the DF.     

Political Institutions and Conservation Outcomes: Wildlife Policy in Zambia

“Messy” democratic political institutions might generate ineffective conservation policy watered down by competing interest groups and rival political parties. A hardcore environmentalist may believe that a pro‐conservation dictatorship would be the type government best able to meet her goals. Such an environmental fantasy became reality in Zambia under President (1972‐1991) Kenneth Kaunda. But despite his dictatorial powers, he did not have much success in curbing the poaching epidemic that swept through Zambia in the 1970s and 80s. The structure of the one‐party state, together with a fall in the price of Zambia's principal export (copper) and a concomitant increase in the value of many wildlife products, created an environment that generated incentives for politicians, bureaucrats, and citizens to disregard Kaunda. This analysis challenges conventional wisdom about the politics of one‐party states. It shows that even in the case of one‐party government, the structure of political institutions remains critical to the extent of a dictator's control.     

Commission Newsletter: 1997

SUMMARY

In this article Sandro Guerrieri discusses the parliamentary proceedings in France of 9–10 July 1940, which set up the Vichy State under the leadership of Marshal Pétain. He was then head of the government of the Third Republic and the motion of 10 July authorized him to consider and promulgate a revised constitution for the French state. In August 1944, these proceedings were formally declared to have been a coup d'état, and therefore legally null and void. It is shown that some of the politicians who voted in the National Assembly against the resolution of 10 July had already asserted this interpretation of the process by which the Vichy State was established. The article reviews the arguments that have developed around this subject, and suggests that while the actual motion, voted by the two Chambers acting as a National Assembly, could be seen as in accordance with the Constitution of the Third Republic, the manner in which it was used by Pétain and his advisers, particularly Pierre Laval, is open to legal challenge, and can be regarded as a usurpation of the powers granted by the National Assembly. Hence while it could be argued that what happened was not a coup d'état, in that the element of intimidatory violence over the legislature, usually seen as one defining characteristic of a coup, was absent, the proceedings can be characterized as at least a coup de force.     

Limited Pluralism in a Liberal Democracy: Party Law and Political Incorporation in South Korea

ABSTRACT

Formal modes of political incorporation in South Korea rest on a foundation of limited pluralism. The notion that the state should impose rigid boundaries on political representation pervades the country’s democracy. This notion is enshrined in law – in particular in the constitution’s Article 8 and in the Political Parties Act – and is upheld and perpetuated by the judiciary, the election commission, and the parties that dominate representative institutions. Labour is particularly disadvantaged by the limited pluralism contained in party laws. The role of party law in shaping modes of political incorporation is frequently overlooked. This account of party law in South Korea echoes this issue’s attention to the quiet ways that the state in Asia has silenced or ignored particular groups while maintaining the formal institutions of electoral democracy. In this case, the effect is to facilitate a rightward drift by the state as left-leaning actors face greater challenges in contesting elections.     

Venezuela,April 2002: Coup or Popular Rebellion? The Myth of a United Venezuela

This article assesses the merits of opposing National Assembly reports into the coup against President Chávez of Venezuela in April 2002. Looking at the historical context and the content of the reports, it argues that the two opposing accounts reflect a class division that has always existed in Venezuela but has been officially denied. It concludes that a possible exit from the stalemate could be that the opposition accept the reality of this class division and therefore the Chávez government as a legitimate representative of the popular classes. This, however, is unlikely in the present circumstances.     

Why the CCM won't lose: the roots of single-party dominance in Tanzania

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the factors contributing to single-party dominance in Tanzania. Despite the fact that Tanzania has had a multi-party democracy since 1995, the party which governed during single-party rule, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has won the vast majority of seats in the National Assembly in the first four multi-party elections. In order to understand the CCM's grip on power, this article analyses the results of a survey conducted amongst subsistence farmers in Tanzania, which provides information on farmers’ livelihood conditions, access to media and political views, and hence provides insight into the preferences underlying voting behaviour. It discusses the dominant reasons for CCM support, as well as the characteristics of farmers who are more likely to support an opposition party. It concludes by discussing possible policy options for enhancing political competition in Tanzania.     

A legacy reassessed: Helmut Kohl and the German party finance affair

Revelations about former chancellor Helmut Kohl's party finance practices spawned the biggest scandal in post‐war German political history. Though some details of this affair's scope remained unclear or in dispute, the author argues that large, unreported private contributions served Kohl's strategy for managing his Christian Democratic Union: such resources helped fund the modern party organisation that he had built and sustained his own quasi‐feudal network of personal relationships at all levels. His intense partisanship made it easier for him to justify circumventing party finance laws. Yet evidence for the contention that Kohl took such funds in exchange for granting policy favours remains more ambiguous.     

Ghana's elections of 7 December 2016: A post-mortem

Ghana went to presidential and parliamentary polls on 7 December 2016, leading to the defeat of President John Mahama and the National Democratic Congress government by the opposition, the New Patriotic Party led by Nana Akufo-Addo. The outcome of the elections therefore followed in the same vein as those held in Ghana in 2000 and 2008, in which the incumbent party lost to the opposition. This article is based on a desk study review of the 2016 elections. There is a brief overview of the state of affairs in Ghana's electoral politics, followed by a discussion of Ghana's electoral reforms, the organisation and management of the elections, the candidates and the campaigns, and the outcome of the elections, as well as some of the challenges that faced the transition process.     

From sultanism to neopatrimonialism? Regionalism within Turkmenistan

This paper proposes that under President Berdimuhamedov, the government of Turkmenistan has begun to move away from the ‘sultanism’ of the Niyazov era. Instead, the new government exhibits characteristics and has pursued policy changes that prepare conditions for the further development and entrenchment of localized networks of elites based on kinship. Such changes suggest that the government of Turkmenistan may develop into a more classic neopatrimonial system of authoritarian governance similar to the other post-Soviet republics in Central Asia. This argument is advanced by examining changes between the governments of former President Niyazov and Berdimuhamedov with regard to three areas of the Turkmen state's relationship with its constituent regions: regional composition of the national cabinet; hakim (governor) policy; and regional development. This examination relies largely on a comprehensive survey of online Turkmen state-media sources, as well as numerous supportive secondary sources.     

Regulation and its discontents: the Indian judiciary and higher education

The role of the judiciary in strengthening regulatory regimes is well regarded. In developing countries where regulatory bodies are captive to powerful interest groups, the judiciary is regarded for its activist role in providing participatory access to groups excluded from the policy process. In contrast, this paper draws attention to the limits of the judiciary as a gatekeeper of regulatory governance. Using the case of regulation in India’s tertiary education sector, it shows how the judiciary’s track record of enabling elite actors to influence policy, often at the cost of legislative mandates, can undermine regulation.     

Radical Change at the Ballot Box: Causes and Consequences of Electoral Behavior in Venezuela's 2000 Elections

This study aims to explain the victory of Hugo Chávez and his party in the 2000 Venezuelan elections, to analyze the factors that made this victory possible, and to examine the consequences for future developments in the Venezuelan political system. The decay of traditional party loyalties without the emergence of new parties deeply rooted in society (dealignment without realignment); underdevelopment; and an institutional setting dominated by a president elected by a plurality electoral system have opened the door to personality-centered politics and weak parties, which are the main features of the current political situation. Compared to the 1993 and 1998 elections, the 2000 elections once again confirm an increase in personality politics and the decay of parties as instruments for articulating interests, representation, and governance. As a consequence, this article argues, instability is likely to remain a feature of Venezuela's party system for some time.     

The African renaissance and the Caribbean

In May 2010 South African President Jacob Zuma will have been in office for one year. During this time, the Zuma administration has been far less ambitious in its foreign policy than previous administrations. However, South Africa is not in a position where it is able to withdraw from foreign engagement, as regional issues — such as Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Swaziland — continue to demand attention. The Zuma administration's approach in the future, in terms of both substance and style, will need to be informed by lessons from past engagement, including South African peacekeeping efforts in countries such as the DRC and Burundi, and South African mediation efforts in countries such as Angola, Côte d'Ivoire and the Comoros. Certainly, South Africa's record of success in taking on international responsibilities over the past 10 years has been mixed, but there is scope for past experience to shape future engagement positively. Indications of this can be seen, for example, in Zuma's efforts to redress former President Thabo Mbeki's clumsy mediation efforts in Angola by deciding to make his first state visit as South Africa's president to Luanda. Zuma's approach to Zimbabwe could build on the foundation set by Mbeki's long engagement with that country.     

新加坡:权威主义,还是精英民主?

在新加坡的政党制度类型上,有些学者同意亨廷顿的观点,认为新加坡实行一党制,因此是权威主义国家.笔者不同意这种观点.本文从新加坡的政党制度是一党独大制入手进行研究,认为新加坡是有限民主国家,又由于新加坡在治国实践上奉行精英主义,因此认为它是精英民主国家.     

UZBEKISTAN AND THE UNITED STATES: INTERESTS AND AVENUES FOR COOPERATION

Uzbekistan has recently initiated a series of reforms in the wake of (former) President Islam Karimov's death in 2016. To what extent and why does Tashkent seek to liberalize? Concurrently, the United States - which curtailed ties with the Uzbekistani government in the aftermath of the 2005 Andijan massacre - has expressed renewed interest. What do Washington and Tashkent seek to gain by improving relations? This article posits that while the United States aspires to bolster regional support for the War in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan is mainly interested in consolidating a new regime and balancing against nearby Great Powers. As such, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's reformist drive should not be construed as a categorical embrace of good governance but a means to reestablish Uzbekistan's geopolitical footing after more than a decade of isolation. Based upon this assessment, both sides can work to foster avenues for cooperation, while the United States encourages Uzbekistan to liberalize at its own pace.