The hidden costs of power-sharing: Reproducing insurgent violence in Africa

This article analyzes some factors underlying the spread ofinsurgent violence in Africa. It focuses on the impact externalfactors have on power struggles on the continent. The firstof these is the unsteady support for democracy from Westerndonors, which has impeded more far-reaching domestic changesin much of Africa. Second are wider changes in the internationalsetting that dramatically enhanced the international standingof armed movements in the post-1989 period. The article arguesthat the interplay of both factors has induced would-be leadersto conquer state power by violent rather than non-violent means.This becomes particularly evident in regard to Western effortsto solve violent conflict through power-sharing agreements.The hypothesis is put forward that the institutionalizationof this practice for the sake of ‘peace’, i.e. providingrebels with a share of state power, has important demonstrationeffects across the continent. It creates an incentive structurewould-be leaders can seize upon by embarking on the insurgentpath as well. As a result, and irrespective of their effectivenessin any given case, power-sharing agreements may contribute tothe reproduction of insurgent violence.     

Uganda in Regional and International Peacekeeping Operations

Since attaining independence in 1962, Uganda has only seriously contributed to regional and international peacekeeping on two occasions—in Liberia and Somalia. Due to the internal political upheavals that rocked the country in the 1960s through 1980s, Uganda’s capacity to engage in international peacekeeping was seriously curtailed. As a result of engaging in the Liberia and Somalia peace operations, the country has built capacity to engage in peacekeeping. However, recently Uganda has used its participation in peacekeeping missions, especially that in Somalia, as a leverage to fend-off criticisms for its involvement in conflicts in the Great Lakes region.     

Destined for deadlock? Russia,Ukraine, and the unfulfilled Minsk agreements

ABSTRACT

Bringing peace, security, and stability to the war-torn region of Donbas has proven to be a challenging – some would say near-impossible – task. The “Minsk II” agreement, signed in February 2015, was supposed to put an end to the armed hostilities, resolve the underlying political issues, and gradually restore Ukrainian government control of the country’s eastern border. None of this has happened. Despite continuous Western support and pressure, progress in the implementation of the peace plan signed in Minsk has been slow, also after the much-anticipated Paris summit of the “Normandy Four” (Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France) in December 2019. This article discusses the underlying causes of the current stalemate, emphasizing factors such as the inherently complex nature of the conflict, the process through which “Minsk II” came into being, the vague and ambiguous language of this and other agreements, practical challenges related to the timing and sequencing of agreed-upon measures, and Russia’s persistent non-acknowledgement of its role in the conflict.     

The Challenges for Africa: A Culture of Peace,Good Governance and People-Centered Development

A history of colonialism, armed conflicts, mismanagement, lack of the rule of law and corruption has meant that despite its abundant natural resources, Africa remains underdeveloped and poverty, hunger, natural disasters and endemic diseases are prevalent. In this article, Ambassador Daniel António, Assistant Secretary-General of the OAU, argues that despite these difficulties there is increased hope as the people of Africa begin to take the initiative and reverse the current situation. António believes that this can be achieved if there is genuine commitment by all those concerned, including the international community, to good governance, liberalization, cooperation, peace and democracy.     

Putting violent armed conflict in the center of the Salween hydropower debates

Regional economic integration has become the dominant development pathway promoted, endorsed, and followed by many developing country governments in South East Asia and globally. Focusing on hydropower development, this article shows how forces of globalization manifested in the Myanmar government’s strategies to promote economic growth are shaping the Salween River basin’s development trajectory. Contesting the general belief that economic development would help the country’s transition to full democracy and achieve peace, it illustrates how hydropower development plans in the basin are closely interlinked with human rights issues. Well known for its long histories of violent conflict involving the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups in various states, hydropower development in the Salween River is not only linked to the ongoing peace process in Myanmar but could also have direct implications on the actual significance of the process. Despite the signing of nationwide ceasefire agreements in 2012, hydropower dam projects could contribute to and trigger reoccurrences of violent armed conflict. Recognizing this conflict-prone and politically fragile condition as the main characteristics of Salween water governance is essential if we are to strive for sustainable and just development.     

Constitutional reform and new patterns of electoral violence: evidence from Kenya’s 2013 elections

In places prone to electoral violence, what effects can constitutional changes have on elites’ incentives to organise conflict? This article develops two hypotheses to address the above question. It proposes that in places where national reforms find sub-national resonance, national and local politicians’ incentives regarding the electoral utility of conflict will align. However, in places where national-level changes fail to be locally relevant, these incentives will deviate from one another. The research illustrates these logics through a controlled comparison of two Kenyan counties: one that experienced electoral violence and the other that maintained peace around the 2013 elections.     

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the questions of identity,territory and political destiny of the indigenous Nuba of the Sudan

ABSTRACT

The Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2005 was successful in ending the longest war in contemporary Africa. However, its implementation has been below the expectations of several communities, particularly in the war-torn regions of the Nuba Mountains, the Southern Blue Nile and the Abyei Area, widely referred to as ‘contested’, ‘marginalised’, ‘transitional’ areas or ‘border territories’. While many interwoven causes were behind the eruption of the protracted civil wars in the Sudan (Elnur 2009; Johnson 2006; Khalid 1987), the political question of sub-national identities and their intrinsic link with specific territories (Murphy 1991; William and Smith 1993) is hypothesised here as a prime factor in extending the civil war into these three areas. Taking the Nuba and their claimed territory of the Nuba Mountains as an example, this article will, first, trace the political striving of the Nuba people and their shift from peaceful political movement to armed struggle; second, it will examine their political status during the peace negotiation process; and third, it will analyse their political responses to the outcome of the CPA and its impact on their future political choices in view of the April 2010 election results, and the projected right to self-determination for the people of Southern Sudan, to be exercised through the referenda in 2011.     

Fresh challenges faced on the ground by the Kingdom of the Sky: A quest for peace,harmony and stability

This article argues that Lesotho’s landlocked position, which inhibits trade and results in enclaves of the poor, not only leads to its dependency on South Africa, but also contributes to its instability. It points out that destabilisation remains a problem in spite of Lesotho having served as an excellent model of peaceful transfer of power in a strengthened democratic arena under its 1993 Constitution, as the country had just celebrated 20 years of relative peace. However, despite the 1991 Windhoek Declaration military coups, violence, violation of both human rights and human security continue to contribute to instability in Lesotho, requiring the frequent intervention of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and especially so following the attempted coup in 2014. Lesotho’s Coalition government, which is a prime-ministerial form of government, is discussed in some detail in this article. The role of peacekeeping forces is also examined. The article recommends demilitarisation as the only practical, viable and long term solution to the problem of recurring coups in this country. The authors conclude that a sustained campaign against corrupt activities by government, though laudable, has somewhat surprisingly served to weaken the foundation of the Coalition in Lesotho.     

The ignoble savage in urban Yerevan

ABSTRACT

This article focuses on a recent development in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, described by its urban population as a ruralization process. I explore what it means to call something or someone ‘rural’ or ‘urban’, and I compare the social category of ‘rural people’ with the social category of the (old) urban intelligentsia. This includes an analysis and reconsideration of the traditional ‘nature–culture dichotomy’ and its meaning for the architecture and urban planning of Yerevan. It also interrogates the classification of people into newcomers from the countryside, urban dwellers, new elites, and young men called rabiz.     

Peace agreements in a near-permanent civil war: Learning from Sudan and South Sudan

The conflicts in the formerly united Sudan have led to millions of deaths since the country's independence. The Naivasha Agreement was meant to end these wars. The January 2005 agreement foresaw a future where the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement and the Sudanese government would coexist within the framework of a united country. Subsequently, in 2011, however, the country was partitioned and the conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan have continued unabated. Interrogating the treaty texts and employing a case study approach and analysis of the economic and power dynamics within the region, this paper addresses the reason behind the failure of the comprehensive peace agreement and subsequent agreements intended to bring peace after partition. It becomes evident that the same dynamics that fed the partition of the country have helped bring conflict within its two successor states. In short, agreements are not sufficient to build peace.     

The influence of the South African transition on the Northern Ireland peace process

The Provisional Irish Republican Army's announcement of a ceasefire at the end of August 1994 prompted widespread comment around the world. A notable feature of the commentaries was the frequency with which reference was made to the transition in South Africa and the peace process in the Middle East. The South African analogy derived additional credibility from the fact that nationalist leaders in Ireland themselves made constant reference to it, both at the time of the ceasefire and in the months leading up to it. Comparison with South Africa became a major theme of Sinn Fein's rhetoric during the 1980s, when comparison with the African National Congress (ANC) was used to legitimise the IRA's ‘armed struggle’. It is argued that the analogy itself became an influence on developments in Northern Ireland in the mid‐1990s, when South Africa underwent fundamental change, putting pressure on Sinn Fein leaders either to drop the comparison or to justify it through establishing an Irish peace process.     

Old ‘counter-revolution’, new ‘terrorism’: historicizing the framing of violence in Xinjiang by the Chinese state

ABSTRACT

China has declared a war on terrorism in Xinjiang, identifying violence in the region as a top security threat. However, what nowadays is officially constructed as ‘terrorism’ was framed as ‘counter-revolution’ in the past. Informed by the concept of macrosecuritization and the agenda of critical terrorism studies, this article examines the changing nature of Chinese state framing of violence in Xinjiang. Through a comparative analysis of the discursive construction of the Baren (1990) and Maralbeshi (2013) violent incidents, I find that the terror lexicon has replaced old narratives of counter-revolution to legitimize a sustained crackdown under a novel geopolitical context. The construction of violence in Xinjiang as terrorism, I argue, is contingent, limited and unstable. It marginalizes factors other than an extremist or separatist agency in the incubation of the violence, in particular the frictions created by the crackdown with which the Chinese government is trying to placate the unrest.     

Aid and transition from a war economy to an oligarchy in post-war Tajikistan

Exclusion and violence persist in post-conflict states, despite international assistance aimed at the demilitarization of politics. Through a field-based study of Tajikistan, this paper argues that aid focuses on economic liberalization, not the implementation of peace agreements, in the initial stage of post-war transition. Such an organization of aid empowers a particular group of elites who have privileged access to state assets at the time of civil war settlement, allowing them to establish institutional frameworks that will consolidate their personal and monopolistic control of resources. This leads to the collapse of power-sharing arrangements, as the incumbent regime seeks to remove wartime commanders and opposition leaders from the administrative apparatus. In Tajikistan, the incumbent regime has also prosecuted many of these former allies and opponents on account of corruption through state agencies established with donor assistance. Aid thus institutionalized exclusion and sustains patterns of violence along civil war divisions, rather than transforming wartime power structures.     

South African foreign policy,preventive diplomacy and the false promise of conflict resolution

A key challenge for Africa in post‐conflict situations lies in the building of capacity to implement ‘stabilisation and reconstruction’ initiatives, combining security with state building and developmental efforts. The authors look at work already done in this regard in the United States and Britain and discuss what Africa should do to get up to speed.     

The civilised Self and the barbaric Other: ex-rebels making sense of sexual violence in the DR Congo

This article addresses discourses on gender and sexual violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Based on discussions with 101 ex-combatants, we examine how former FDLR members make sense of sexual violence by studying prevailing gendered images of Self and Other. This analysis of potential perpetrators' mindset is part of the puzzle to find preventive measures. The findings demonstrate that ex-combatants attribute overwhelming power to biological ‘givens’ such as ‘urges’, ‘basic needs’ and ‘domination’ in their interpretation of sexuality. They also differentiate themselves from out-groups - enemy fighters and other nationals, especially Congolese - by attributing the latter with lower degrees of restraint. These insights demonstrate that a process of Othering is at work at the intersection of sex-gender-nation within the Congolese warscape, which complicates existing knowledge of sexual violence. The findings also suggest that the theoretical understanding of the phenomenon of sexual violence in war needs to place the notion of intersectionality central stage.     

Seducing the people: Populism and the challenge to democracy in South Africa

Recent ructions in South Africa's ruling African National Congress have been described from time to time in the media as signalling a dangerous shift towards ‘populism’. The article examines this contention. It argues that South Africa is witnessing a significant challenge to the founding precepts of constitutional democracy. This challenge emanates from the (populist) equation of democracy with ‘the will of the people’. The article unpacks some of the implications of reducing democracy to majoritarianism. It provides also an analysis of why populist appeals of various kinds have been so appealing to South African voters 15 years into democracy. The article argues that the challenges that are currently being experienced in relation to democratisation in South Africa have to do with the inherent tension between the animating ideology of democracy, which suggests that power resides with the people, and the practical functioning of democracy, which relies on the devolution of power to the representatives chosen by a section of the people who rely on order and predictability in the polity in order to govern in a workable way. Populist appeals, it is argued, exploit this tension. But what makes it possible for this strategy to succeed is the failure on the part of political elites to engage in the process of building democracy by way of inculcating respect for democratic values.     

Noble Robbers,avengers and entrepreneurs: Eric Hobsbawm and Banditry in Iran,the Middle East and North Africa

Banditry has been endemic across the Middle East and North Africa. Yet the Middle Eastern experience of banditry has thus far failed to receive sustained academic attention. In particular, the debates stimulated by Eric Hobsbawm's thesis of social banditry have elicited only a few responses from scholars of the Middle East and North Africa, and these largely negative. This article asks to what extent the recent work done in the field of ‘Bandit studies’ helps to elucidate the experience of the Middle East and North Africa. Why has there been such a lack of interest in banditry when the phenomenon itself, and rural crime in general, was so widespread? Why are so few individual bandits celebrated or reviled? What do we mean by banditry in the Middle Eastern context, who became a bandit, why and in what circumstances, what did bandits do and how was this perceived by elites and subalterns, what were the connections between bandits and peasants and between bandits and the worlds of power and, perhaps most importantly, who has written about bandits and what sources have they used?     

‘Are We Still Running?’: Violent Migration to Violent Refuge

For most foreign nationals of African origin who lived in South Africa during 2008 and 2015, this period will be remembered with horror and fear. These were the years when South Africa’s growing culture of xenophobia matured into mass deadly violence. This violence has been widely reported in the press and is the subject of much scholarly engagement. The pre-migration life stories of many who take refuge in South Africa are laden with violence but such narratives are less well known and reported. The forces at home that propel migration are frequently excessively violent and traumatic. Once in South Africa, many migrants experience further violence and vulnerability in their places of refuge, as in 2008 and 2015. The violence fuelling migration and characterising refuge are thus tragic combinations of multiple forms of physical, symbolic and structural violence. In identifying repeated cycles of trauma, dehumanisation and vulnerability, this article discusses the pleas of migrants for better understanding, formal recognition and support from South African citizens and the government. Finally, the role of peace education, including healing interventions, for creating greater justice and harmony between foreign nationals and their host communities is discussed.     

Cyprus: in search of an exit from ambiguity

This paper underlines the relevance of ambiguity theory to understand the persistence of frames of agents and their audience with regard to ‘self,’ ‘other’ and the ‘land’ in a protracted conflict such as Cyprus. It examines the case study of Cyprus from the signing of the Agreements on Cyprus (1959), through the Turkish intervention (1974) and until the Akinci election (2015). The paper shows how peace agreements may impose ways of looking that endure the ups and downs of social adaptation after the signing of peace agreements. These frames go on to constitute archetypes against which other frames are ordered or evaluated. Moreover, the paper shows that despite worthy suggestions to create cross-cutting linkages among the Greek and the Turkish Cypriot communities, coexistence necessitates understanding how groups are likely to frame the available options and respond to ambiguity.     

Making democracy safe: Policies tackling electoral violence in Africa

This article analyses the ways in which African countries are grappling with the problem of electoral violence. It argues that, although electoral violence has posed a serious challenge to democratic consolidation and peace in Africa, knowledge of how to prevent and or manage it is largely inadequate. Much of the academic interest in electoral violence has focused on defining the phenomenon, particularly analysing its causes, scope, patterns and consequences. This article examines the measures adopted by Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria to manage electoral violence. The specific measures analysed in this study include: (1) establishment of commissions of inquiry; (2) mediation in high-tension situations; and (3) regulation of political activities. While these measures represent significant efforts to curb electoral violence in Africa, they do not, of course, directly address the underlying causes of the problem. Electoral violence will continue to pose serious challenges to democracy and peace in Africa until the lingering socio-economic and political tensions and the lack of credibility of the electoral process in many African countries are addressed; however, in the meantime, to save lives, it is worth putting into place effective deterrents to election violence wherever it threatens.