哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦独立以来的转型战略:悖论和前景

自苏联解体以后,中亚地区成了国际社会瞩目的焦点.作为曾经的苏联国家的一部分,目前该地区充满矛盾.地区内的两个大国--哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦选择了不同的发展战略,导致了有趣而充满分歧的结果.取得独立后,哈萨克斯坦选择开放它的经济,而乌兹别克斯坦政府则专注于政治稳定和完全协调发展的经济.1990年代早期,乌兹别克斯坦的策略看上去更合理且更少痛苦,而哈萨克斯坦在那时遭受了严重的经济衰退.然而,到了世纪之交,哈萨克斯坦的经济表现远远超过了它的邻国.本文的目的是分析和比较哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦独立早期所选择的两种不同的转型战略,以及评价未来几年里这两种战略的前景和它们所隐含的意义.     

Integrating domestic politics and foreign policy making: the cases of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

Matters of domestic political consideration exerted a major influence on the processes of foreign policy making established and developed by the authoritarian leaderships of post-Soviet Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The preservation of internal authoritarian stability and the political survival of the national regimes have therefore constituted the key foreign policy ends set by decision makers in Ashgabat and Tashkent. This article unveils and discusses the interconnection between domestic politics and foreign policy making in post-Soviet Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan by looking comparatively at the dynamics through which the regimes manipulated foreign policy to consolidate their internal power. In particular, this article will analyse the crucial role played by foreign policy in the regimes' responses to perceived threats to their political stability.     

Political culture,state elites and regional security in West Africa

This article analyses the dominant patterns of political culture among West Africa's state elites in an attempt to understand what standards, beliefs and principles they cherish. We suggest that although there are significant differences across the region's states, the dominant political culture can be characterised as neopatrimonial, that is, systems based on personalised structures of authority where patron–client relationships operate behind a façade of ostensibly rational state bureaucracy. In order to explore these issues the article proceeds in four parts. After providing a definition of political culture and why it is an important topic of analysis, we examine the central characteristics of the political culture held by state elites in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region. The section ‘The Nigerian factor’ briefly discusses some of the malign effects that this culture has had upon governance and political economy issues in the regional giant, Nigeria. The final section explores whether the region's elites are living up to their own claims that they are embarking upon a serious attempt to engage in state reconstruction or are instead simply searching for alternative ways to sell their more traditional concern with regime protection. We conclude that, without a fundamental recasting of the political culture guiding the region's elites, a security culture that prioritises democracy and human security is unlikely to emerge within ECOWAS.     

Power elites,war and postwar reconstruction in Africa: Continuities,discontinuities and paradoxes

This article interrogates the manner in which the composition, character, regeneration, and accumulation strategies of power elites and the organisation of their hegemony is being affected or unaffected by recent developments, most especially, civil wars and their corollary, postwar reconstruction, in Africa. By seeking to understand how conflicts and post-conflict reconstruction alter or transform the character, recruitment and role of power elites, and the operational context (the nature of the state) in Africa, this article draws attention to the prospects of transforming the nature of leadership in Africa. I contend that the capacity for violence and terror by individuals (especially young combatants who were previously marginalised) and armed groups has become a new marker of elitism and a leverage on peace agreements. Moreover, post-Cold War conflicts in Africa have accentuated the emergence of war-making power elites as ‘executors’ and ‘trustees’ of peace treaties, or ‘peace celebrities’ with considerable leverage on the course and outcomes of postwar reconstruction. The instability in post-1989 Liberia is used as a case study to reflect this claim. I also cite examples of members and leaders of armed groups in countries such as Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and the Democratic Republic of Congo where the capacity for violence translated into political rewards and gains in peace agreements.     

Authoritarian politics and economic reform in Uzbekistan: past,present and prospects

All the ex-Soviet Central Asian states have super-presidential, authoritarian regimes with poor human rights records. Using the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the article shows that Uzbekistan has sometimes improved, when the economy has been good, and has a mixed record on religious, labor, and language rights. All these states are sensitive to outside pressures if applied tactfully but try to maintain their independence from all outside powers.     

Framing Andijon,narrating the nation: Islam Karimov's account of the events of 13 May 2005

Tashkent's handling of anti-government protests and violence in the city of Andijon on 13 May 2005 has generated enormous controversy and had significant political repercussions. However, there has been no detailed analysis of rival interpretations of what happened. This paper begins to redress this lacuna by analysing a book on the subject authored by the President of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov. Using framing theory, it identifies four key themes deployed in the narrative to delegitimize the government's opponents: terrorism and criminality; inauthentic Uzbekness and deviant masculinity/religiosity; constitutional illegitimacy; and the subversion of the scientific laws of states. Significantly for an understanding of regime legitimization and nationalism in Uzbekistan, no recourse is made to the government's intellectual framework known as the ‘ideology of national independence’. The paper points to the need for further research to enable scholars to develop a deeper and more nuanced understanding of the contemporary politicization of national belonging in independent Uzbekistan.     

Framing language policy in post-Soviet Azerbaijan: political symbolism and interethnic harmony

This article describes how the successive Azerbaijani governments of Heydar Aliyev (1993–2003) and Ilham Aliyev (2003–present) have pursued a largely symbolic language policy, enabling them to portray themselves as protectors of both a unique Azerbaijani identity and interethnic harmony while actually expending minimal resources. Given the demographic dominance of Azerbaijanis in Azerbaijan, language revitalization is framed as being inevitable and natural, requiring little state intervention. Indeed, the Aliyev governments have framed such symbolic policies as being preferable to the more nationalistic approach favoured by the pan-Turkic government of the Azerbaijani Popular Front (1992–93), the remnants of which have become the main opposition to the Aliyev governments. However, the Azerbaijani opposition has since largely adopted policies similar to those of the government; the difference between the two groups lies in how they portray the government's efforts.     

Why are public offices sold in Kyrgyzstan?

Why are public offices for sale in Kyrgyzstan? To address this question, this article attempts to set out a new logic for understanding the motives, nature, and consequences of corruption in the country. Rather than securing access to a single favor through bribery, officials invest in political and administrative posts in order to obtain access to stream of rents associated with an office. Political and administrative corruption is organically linked in this system, and corruption stems not so much from weak monitoring as from being a franchise-like arrangement, where officials are required to pay continuous “fees” to their bosses. The key is to be the public official influencing the redistribution of rents as well as participating in the informal market where “public” goods are privatized and exchanged for informal payments. Thus, instead of control over the pure economic assets of the state, influence over the state's institutional and organizational framework is the dominant strategy for earning and investing in the country.     

The cultural baggage of Khorezmian identity: traditional forms of singing and dancing in Khorezm and in Tashkent

After Uzbekistan gained its independence from Soviet rule, important political and economic changes took place. The mobility of the population has since then increased drastically and created new spaces for the negotiation of social identities as well as new strategies for identity politics among the culturally and regionally diverse population of Uzbekistan. This article aims to contribute to the discussions on social identity and its ‘contents’ in the light of migration processes. The main argument centres on the importance of what Barth called the ‘cultural stuff’ of social identities when maintaining boundaries during identification processes. The analysis focuses specifically on certain singing and dancing practices of Khorezmians. It shows how these practices survive, but are also transformed in the context of Tashkent, the capital city of Uzbekistan, where people from different regions reside together and are engaged in performing and presenting their own group identity in reference to ‘others’.     

A tribe and its states: Yemen’s 1972 Bayḥan massacre revisited

Across the Middle East, tribes and states have entered into different relationships. In many countries, tribes were confronted with massive attempts at interference by their respective states. The northern Yemeni Republic, in contrast, remained a weak state with little coercive instruments at its disposal. Its rule was rather based on indirect means: the politics of patronage, the politicization of development efforts, and the exploitation of tribal conflict. This article aims to look closer into state-tribe relations in Yemen by reviewing the power struggle between the Khawlan al-Tiyal tribe and the republican government. In 1972, the regional ramifications of this struggle culminated in the so-called ‘Bayhan massacre’ whose legacy continues to resonate across tribal Yemen today. The Khawlan case gives evidence of how power and legitimacy in republican Yemen remained, and still remain, largely contingent on the politics of co-optation and patronage, an endemic feature that comes at the expense of real institution building.     

Anti-developmental patrimonialism in Zimbabwe

Research on investment1 1. This is an abridged version of M. Dawson and T. Kelsall (2011) Anti-developmental Patrimonialism in Zimbabwe. Working Paper 19: Africa Power and Politics Programme. The unabridged version of the paper is now available online at: http://www.institutions-africa.org/filestream/20111110-appp-working-paper-19-anti-developmental-patrimonialism-in-zimbabwe-dawson-and-kelsall-nov-11 climates and economic growth in developing countries is shifting from institutional ‘best practices’ towards ways in which developmentally successful regimes make use of economic rents. After discussing rent flows in Zimbabwe's history, the paper concludes that the country exhibits a pattern of centralised, short-term rent utilisation, with disastrous results, showing that the centralisation of rent-management by itself does not indicate a ‘developmental patrimonialism’.     

Between Interculturalism and Ethnocentrism: Local Government and the Indigenous Movement in Otavalo‐Ecuador

To what extent might an indigenous mayor govern beyond ethnically defined grievances, without being labelled traitor by the indigenous organisation? This article deals with the challenges faced by the Ecuadorian indigenous movement when it attains power in local government. The issue will be explored through the case of Mario Conejo, who in 2000 became the first indigenous mayor of Otavalo representing the indigenous political movement Pachakutik. Although ethnically based tensions in the local indigenous movement were evident throughout the period, 2006 saw Conejo leave Pachakutik and create a new political movement. This rupture can be traced, I argue, to an intercultural dilemma and the difficulties of ethnically defined political movements.     

中亚的政商关系:比较分析的方法

在大多数国家里,政府(政治与公共管理)与企业的关系对经济活动的运行、经济决策和企业战略发挥着显著的作用.在中亚的后苏联国家,现行的政商关系既是改革策略的内生结果,又影响着进一步的制度变革,表现出极大的差别.本文旨在理解哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的各种政商关系如何影响了这些国家市场经济制度框架的发展,重点考察了中亚国家政商关系的两个方面的内容:模式的内容(由代理人的偏好及其相对权力决定)和正式和非正式制度的一致性.