The Density of State Interest-Communities: Do Regional Variables Matter?

To better understand state interest-group politics, this studycompares two approaches to understanding the density of theirinterest communities. The first approach—Gray and Lowery'senergy, stability, area model of density—emphasizes asmall set of political and economic variables operative withineach state in accounting for density. The second, of which thereare several examples, emphasizes a regional level of analysis.The two approaches are evaluated as both independent and complementaryaccounts of state interest-community density using 1990 statelobby-registration data. Although some evidence of modest underspecificationin the Gray and Lowery model is found, regional or spatiallybased variables only have a small impact on the density of stateinterest-communities.     

Introduction

PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS was first published by the Hansard Societyin the winter of 1947, one of the coldest in Britain’shistory. At the time representative politics in general—andwhat many still referred to as ‘the mother of Parliaments’in particular—apparently enjoyed considerable popularprestige. It was not just Winston Churchill who, as he pointedout in the journal’s first issue, was conscious of ‘theunique and decisive contribution made by Parliament to the Britishwar effort’. Those busy building Labour’s post-warNew Jerusalem were, moreover, impressed by the extent to whichsuch a long-established political system could be put to     

Constitutional Reform and Continental Free Trade: A Review of Issues in Canadian Federalism in 1987

Two issues dominated the Canadian federal provincial agendain 1987: constitutional reform and trade negotiations with theUnited States. On the constitutional side, a unanimous agreement—knownas the Meech Lake Accord—was reached among First Ministers(Prime Minister and provincial premiers). On the economic side,Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and President Ronald Reagan signeda comprehensive, bilateral, free trade agreement. However, neitheragreement will take effect until endorsed or implemented bythe relevant legislatures, and one cannot take for granted thatlegislative approval will be forthcoming in either case. Whateverthe outcome, the attempt to grapple with these matters willhave a lasting impact on Canadian federalism. Both agreementsare controversial in certain regions, and while implementationwould initiate a string of systemic changes, rejection wouldengender new regional animosities. Thus, each of the two issues,taken separately, will affect institutional arrangements andterritorial (regional) relationships within Canada. The interplaybetween the two initiatives will also be significant.     

Introduction: Gender, Citizenship and Participation: Opportunities and Obstacles in the Twenty-first Century Politics

THIS special half issue of Parliamentary Affairs brings togetherseveral pertinent themes that have been the source of debate—academicand broader—in recent years. We hear much about the ‘crisisof participation’ in which ‘traditional’ formsof political activity attract the participation of ever-decreasingnumbers, although the extent to which this is a ‘natural’development of social change or the result of political bankruptcyremains to be decided. While, for     

Trends in City Conditions During the 1970s: A Survey of Demographic and Socioeconomic Changes

Changes in the demographic and socioeconomic conditions of 627cities between 1970 and 1980 are examined using simple comparisonof means and correlational analytic techniques. Cities are groupedaccording to their type (Central city; suburb), regional location,and rate of population growth (decline). Major changes occurredin employment patterns, income levels, economic bases, racialcomposition, and social pathologies (crime rates)—allmeasures of urban stress. These conditions tended to clusterin certain types of cities: large, declining central citiesof the Northeast and Midwest. But population decline and regionallocation were not found to be independent determinants of urbandistress. National and regional economic trends, especiallychanges in the vitality of the metropolitan area in which acity is located. were the primary determinants.     

The Federal Role in State Fiscal Stress

This article examines the extent to which the federal government'spolicies were responsible for the fiscal stress experiencedby most state governments in the early 1990s. Federal policieshave contributed considerably to recent state fiscal stress,particularly through the Medicaid program—the fastestgrowing part of state budgets—and the recession, whichdepressed revenue and increased welfare and Medicaid spending.Federal aid reductions have not been an important source ofrecent state fiscal stress. The real value of per capita federalaid other than for welfare programs fell considerably in the1980s, but the reductions were much greater for local governmentsthan for states. The largest reductions were in the early 1980s.Federal policies have affected state finances in several otherways—through tax policy, unfunded mandates, and the federalfailure to cope effectively with problems like health and poverty.Federal court rulings have also caused budget problems (as havestate court decisions). In some respects, state fiscal problemsare not a federal responsibility. Rising school enrollments,new corrections policies, and inelastic tax systems have createdfiscal stress for many states. Excessive state spending in the1980s has contributed to recent fiscal problems in some states,but not generally.     

Welfare Reform: Revolution or Retrenchment?

This article introduces the two main themes of this specialissue of Publius: The Journal of Federalism, workfare and federalism.At this early stage in the history of the 1996 Welfare ReformAct, these themes must be stated as questions rather than answers,as hypotheses not conclusions. What does the new welfare policyseek to accomplish? What are the effects—intended andunintended—of its limited devolution of power to the states?     

Federalism and the Strong-State/Weak-State Conundrum: Canadian Economic Policymaking in Comparative Perspective

The areal dispersion of power and constitutional division ofresponsibilities in federal arrangements are generally feltto limit the ability of federal systems to improve economicperformance. Examining Canada within a comparative framework,we assess "the federations as weak states" hypothesis as wellas the utility of the "strong-state/weak-state" model itself.Although some aspects of the Canadian federal system—namelythe combination of federal with parliamentary traditions andthe resulting adverse policy styles—inhibit the adoptionof effective economic adjustment policies, these features arenot necessarily found in other federal arrangements. Comparisonswith Switzerland, Austria, and West Germany suggest that, undercertain circumstances, federal power sharing may be conduciveto bringing about broad agreement on both goals and policiesamong national, regional, and local governments and major economicactors.     

A Statistical Model of Bilateral Cooperation

In most situations of bilateral cooperation we can observe onlywhether or not potential partners actually cooperate. Yet weoften want to know what factors lead the actors to enter intoand continue cooperation. The model we develop—a dynamicversion of bivariate probit with partial observability—permitsone to estimate the probabilities that either of two partieswould want to cooperate and to identify the factors that affectthese probabilities. As an illustration, we focus on agreementsbetween national governments and the International MonetaryFund. The model should have a wide applicability.     

Scotland's Future Political System

Debates on Scottish constitutional reform go hand in hand with discussions of political reform. Its reformers use the image of ‘old Westminster’ to describe ‘control freakery’ within government and an adversarial political system. Many thought that the Scottish political system could diverge from the UK, to strengthen the parliamentary system, introduce consensus politics and further Scotland's alleged social and democratic tradition. Yet the experience of devolution suggests that Holyrood and Westminster politics share key features. Both systems are driven by government, making policy in ‘communities’ involving interest groups and governing bodies, with parliaments performing a limited role and public participation limited largely to elections. The Scottish government's style of policy‐making is distinctive, but new reforms are in their infancy and their effects have not been examined in depth. In this context, the article identifies Scotland's ability to make and implement policy in a new way, based on its current trajectory rather than the hopes of reformers.     

Between EU Requirements, Competitive Politics, and National Traditions: Re–creating Regions in the Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe

The article studies the impact of the European Union (EU) on the reforms of regional administration in Central and East European (CEE) accession countries. It analyzes the motives, process and outcomes of regional– or mesolevel administrative reforms in five countries—Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia—considering whether the EU has shaped these reforms to a higher degree than in relation to its incumbent member states. The article finds that the EU Commission's interest in regional self–governments with a substantial fiscal and legal autonomy has provided an additional rationale and an incentive to re–create regional self–governments. Advocates of regional self–government and an institutionalization of regions in the accession countries have referred to European trends and (perceived) EU expectations of regionalization. Thus, the Commission and the preaccession framework have become catalysts for a process in which most CEE regions have already enhanced and will further increase their political salience. However, the trajectories and outcomes of regional–level reforms can be better explained by a combination of domestic institutional legacies, policy approaches of reformers and their adversaries, and the influence of ethnic/historical regionalism.     

Which Electoral Formula Is the Most Proportional? A New Look with New Evidence

A ranking exists in electoral systems research of differentelectoral formulas—the mathematical functions governingthe conversion of votes into legislative seats—in termsof both proportionality of seats and votes and favorabilityto the largest party. I reexamine this issue with new methodsand new evidence, attempting to cross-validate previous rankingsusing a larger and more controlled data set and more preciseparametric methods than have been applied previously. The resultsby and large confirm previous knowledge but also illuminateseveral important new facets obscured in previous investigations.For example, at common ranges of district magnitude (from 5to 15 seats), it is shown that electoral formula may matterat least as much as district magnitude in shaping proportionality.     

Small City Autonomy in the Federal System: A Study of Local Constraint and Opportunity in California

How severe have been the restrictions on the autonomy of localgovernments, as state and federal mandates and grant programsproliferated in the 1970s? This study of mandate and grant impactsin nine, small California cities suggests that local controlhas not been reduced as much as the recent literature of federalismargues. Municipal officials in these communities perceived arange of effects according to program areas. Clean water standardswere negatively viewed, while state planning mandates actuallyserved to further local goals. Most of the cities did not hesitateto compete for grants, despite their many strings. Based onthe "hard case" of small cities—which are relative newcomersto grant and mandate programs, and generally change-resistantin attitude—this study points out some positive localgovernment impacts of federal-and state-local entanglements. ¹ As associate investigator of the project on which this paperis based, Joan Hogan of the Institute of Governmental Affairs,University of California at Davis, contributed significantlyto the research.     

A New Start Toward a More Decentralized Federalism in Brazil?

Brazil's political history can be read as a cyclical alternationbetween centralization and decentralization—a contestbetween the center and the periphery. Centralizing tendenciesreached one height under the "Estado Novo" of GetúlioVargas (1937–1945) and peaked again under a series ofmilitary governments from 1964 to 1985. Forces favoring regionalismand more state and local autonomy have been given impetus duringthe 1980s by trends of regional differentiation, popular mobilization,return to civilian government in 1985, several key elections,and state and local financial crises. The constitution promulgatedin October 1988 features decentralizing fiscal provisions thatgive reason to believe that federalism may be revitalized inthe next several years in response to grassroots demands fromstate and local governments. However, these federalism reformsmay be threatened by the national government's attempts to thwartthe constitution's decentralization provisions and by nationaleconomic and political instability.     

Devolution in the United Kingdom: Statehood and Citizenship in Transition

The United Kingdom evolved as a "state of unions," in whichgovernment arrangements were territorially varied in line withthe particular circumstances of the sequence of acts of unionbetween the core state territory of England and Wales, Scotland,and Ireland. The recent devolution reforms have built on thatterritorial nonuniformity, embedding a number of idiosyncrasiesinto the devolved UK state: a lopsidedness that leaves the biggestand wealthiest part of the United Kingdom—England—governedcentrally wihle the non-English nations have devolved government,devolved government arrangements for those nations that aremarkedly asymmetrical, and an underdeveloped system of intergovernmentalrelations connecting United Kingdom—level and devolvedpolitical arenas. Together these issues pose important questionsof whether the devolution reforms amount to a coherent overallpackage, whether the reforms are stable, and whether they erodea common UK citizenship.     

Rational and Pluralistic Approaches to HAVA Implementation: The Cases of Georgia and California

The Help America Vote Act (HAVA) has created a new dynamic forthe oversight and implementation of federal elections, requiringstates to assume greater control of election processes vis-à-vistheir local governments than was previously the case in moststates. We consider how HAVA has changed the relationship betweenstates and localities, especially through the HAVA planningprocess. We examine two approaches that states have used inHAVA planning—a rational approach and a pluralistic approach—andhow each can shape the power relationship between states andlocalities. We then present case studies from Georgia and Californiato illustrate how these two approaches have functioned in practice.     

The Impact of Federalism on the Organization of Canadian Foreign Policy

The international activities of Canadian provinces—mainlyAlbert, British Columbia, Ontario, and Québec—challengeconventional concepts of sovereignty and the federal view ofa national monopoly in foreign policy. These provincial activitieshave become more important since the early 1970s and have yieldedoutcomes in the field of foreign policy that would not haveoccurred otherwise. Provinces engage in international activitiesfor a number of reasons. They have the capacity, jurisdictionalobligation, and political desire to do so. Economic necessity,especially the international economic environment, is importantmotivation. Both conflict and cooperation with Ottawa also encourageprovincial involvements in international activities. Occasionally,foreign governments invite such activity as well. Present trendscoupled with the constitutional division of responsibilitiesin Canada suggest that territorial transgovernmentalism willhave greater consequences for Canadian foreign policy, therebygiving to Canada's international presence a character similarto the complexities and contradictions of the country's domesticmosaic.     

The Fiscal Consequences of Changing Federal and State Revenue Policies: The Case of Small Oregon Cities

This article examines the fiscal consequences for twelve, smallOregon cities of recent changes in federal and state intergovernmentalrevenue policies. Many small local governments have experienceddouble revenue reverses in recent years—reductions inown-source revenues because of economic decline as well as decreasesin intergovernmental revenues, especially federal aid. The twelvesmall cities are compared with all 241 cities in Oregon andthe 136 Oregon cities in the 1,000 to 49,999 population range.Using aggregate and interview data, a major finding is thatalthough stabilization and/or decline in federal-state revenuesharing and entitlement program funds have accentuated difficultlocal revenue situations, economic decline has been the moreimportant contributor to the fiscal stress of the twelve smallmunicipalities. Most of the twelve cities had limited fiscalcapacity—as indicated by low assessed property valuations—makingit difficult to produce sufficient revenue to meet basic publicservice needs. These cities were also unable to get citizenapproval of increases in property taxes.     

Modeling Duration Dependence

As applications of duration analysis have burgeoned in politicalscience, scholars have become increasingly aware of the potentialsubstantive importance of duration dependence: the extent towhich the conditional hazards of the events of interest arerising or falling over time. Here I discuss the issue of durationdependence, focusing on the distinction between "spurious" dependencedue to unobserved heterogeneity and "true" duration dependencedue to state dependence in the process of interest. I presenta simple extension of a commonly used parametric duration model—theWeibull model—which allows researchers to assess the influenceof causal variables on the nature and extent of duration dependencein their data. I then illustrate the application of this "generalizedWeibull" model using data on the duration of international alliances.