A Political Outlier: the Distinct Politics of the Millennial Generation

The generation one comes of age politically is an important determinant in one’s political identity. As a result, there is the potential for a disparity of the vote choice among different generations. Today, the youngest generation of American adults—the so-called Millennial Generation—have developed distinct political leanings that are significantly to the left of older generations Since Millennials have achieved adulthood and gained the right to vote the generation has consistently been a generational outlier. The strong pro-Democratic vote of the Millennials has its roots in the generation being both very pro-Obama and very anti-Bush. The Millennials support for the Democratic Party, however, is also due to the generation’s liberal views on policy that are a product of Millennials’ relative diversity, high education levels, global perspective on politics, and lack of religiosity. The huge generation gap that has emerged since Millennials have entered the electorate suggests that there is an emerging realignment of the electorate along generational lines. With generational replacement, Millennials thus have the potential to alter the direction of American politics.     

Emerging cohort trends in housing debt and home equity

Abstract

Financial and market conditions in the 1990s caused a sharp increase in the housing debt (in constant dollars) of households now approaching or just past normal retirement age. Households now in middle age have also set new records for housing debt and will likely continue to carry high housing debt when they reach old age in 10 or 20 years.

In the future, this housing debt burden is likely to lead to financial and housing adjustments that suggest a qualitative change in behavior when these households reach the later stages of their working life. Many will need to work longer to service housing debt. When facing a life‐cycle downturn in annual income, households will be increasingly motivated to tap into their home equity, both by borrowing, for those who stay in their homes, or by downsizing and liquidating some equity, for those who choose to move.     

Breaking the Double Impasse: Securing and Supporting Diverse Housing Tenures in the United States

What might be described as a double impasse characterizes debate on U.S. housing tenure with advocates fighting for rental or ownership housing on one side and Third Way or mixed-tenure solutions on the other. Breaking this impasse requires disengaging from conceptions of an idealized form of tenure and instead advocating making virtually all tenures as secure and supported as possible, so that diverse households are able to live in homes that best fit their changing needs over their life cycles. This essay (a) presents data on the variety of tenures in the United States; (b) conveys a new two-dimensional map of tenure according to their degrees of control and potential for wealth-building; and (c) shows how U.S. institutions shape their risks and subsidies. Most U.S. tenures are at least somewhat risky, including those that receive the greatest federal subsidies. A new housing system is needed to secure and support as many tenures as possible.     

The Life Cycle of the Government-Sponsored Enterprise: Lessons for Design and Accountability

The federal government uses government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to allocate credit to sectors such as housing and agriculture that are considered to deserve special support. The GSEs illustrate the importance of life cycle in the design and accountability of federal agencies and instrumentalities. Four case studies are presented here. In general, market and political dominance and rapid growth are inherent in GSE design. Dominance means inadequate feedback, which can foster poor management and financial risk. Government lacks an exit strategy for GSEs that have outlived their usefulness. Government should systematically review the organizational structure, accountability, and design of all agencies and instrumentalities, both at inception and over their life cycles.     

Family Shelter Entry and Re-entry During the Recession in Hennepin County: The Role of Race,Residential Location,and Family Earnings

This article examines the extent to which shelter entry and re-entry increased during the Great Recession (December 2007–December 2009) in Hennepin County, Minnesota. Among successive cohorts of families entering the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP), Black families were 23% more likely to enter shelter if they were in the 2008–2009 cohort and 28% more likely to enter shelter if they were in the 2010 cohort than if they entered SNAP in 2004–2005. In addition, families who left shelter in 2009 were 39% more likely and families leaving shelter in 2010 were 63% more likely to re-enter shelter than those leaving shelter in 2004–2006. Only a small part of the increases in shelter entry and shelter re-entry was explained by reductions in family earnings. This suggests that the increases in shelter entry and re-entry may have been caused by other factors, such as the decline in the availability of affordable housing.     

Nonprofit housing and neighborhood spillovers

Nonprofit organizations play a critical role in U.S. housing policy, a role typically justified by the claim that their housing investments produce significant neighbor‐hood spillover benefits. However, little work has actually been done to measure these impacts on neighborhoods. This paper compares the neighborhood spillover effects of city‐supported rehabilitation of rental housing undertaken by nonprofit and for‐profit developers, using data from New York City. To measure these benefits, we use increases in neighboring property values, estimated from a difference‐in‐difference specification of a hedonic regression model. We study the impacts of about 43,000 units of city‐supported housing completed during the 1980s and 1990s, and our sample of property transactions includes nearly 300,000 individual sales. We find that both nonprofit and for‐profit projects generate significant, positive spillover effects. This finding in itself is significant, given the widespread skepticism about the impact of subsidized housing on neighborhoods. We also find some differences across sectors. First, the impact of nonprofit housing remains stable over time, whereas the effect of for‐profit housing declines slightly with time. Second, while large for‐profit and nonprofit developments deliver similar benefits, in the case of small projects, for‐profit developments generate greater impacts than their nonprofit counterparts. These differences are consistent with theoretical predictions. In particular, in the presence of information asymmetries with respect to housing quality, the non‐distribution constraint should lead nonprofits to invest more than for‐profits in developing and maintaining features that benefit the broader community. Meanwhile, the fact that scale makes a difference to nonprofit impacts may reflect the capacity constraints often faced by smaller nonprofits. ©2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

Where Does Location Affordability Drive Residential Mobility? An Analysis of Origin and Destination Communities

Abstract

Despite an overall decrease in residential mobility after the 2007 housing crisis, many households, particularly those that are low income, continue to move in pursuit of a better life. Traditional theories of residential mobility suggest that mobility will occur when housing and transportation costs are cumulatively greater than the cost of moving to a new location. At the same time, the influence of these factors is not likely to be uniform across geographic contexts or for moves up or down the metropolitan hierarchy. Our analysis examines how well affordability measures explain patterns of county-level residential mobility. Specifically, we contrast conventional measures of affordability focused on the ratio of income to housing expense with measures of location affordability that factor in both housing and transportation costs. We find that whereas households tend to move from lower to higher cost locations, transit affordability at the destination plays an important role in mobility decisions.     

Longitudinal statistics on work activity and use of employment supports for new Social Security Disability Insurance beneficiaries

We present longitudinal employment and work-incentive statistics for individuals who began receiving Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) benefits from 1996 through 2006. For the longest-observed cohort, 28 percent returned to work, 6.5 percent had their benefits suspended for work in at least 1 month, and 3.7 percent had their benefits terminated for work. The corresponding percentages are much higher for those who were younger than age 40 when they entered the DI program. Most first suspensions occurred within 5 years after entry. Cross-state variation in outcomes is high, and, to the extent observed, statistics for more recent cohorts are lower.     

Student Age and the Collegiate Pathway

Using a rich data set of all SAT test takers from the 2004 through 2008 high school graduation cohorts, we investigate the impact of state‐specific school age‐of‐entry laws on students’ pathways into and through college. We document that these laws do not impact the probability that a student takes the SAT; however, we find strong evidence that students who are expected to be the oldest in their school cohorts based on their state residency and birthdays have a greater probability of taking an Advanced Placement (AP) exam and tend to take more AP exams. We also find that relatively younger students are more likely to attend two‐year colleges before attending four‐year colleges and are less likely to have earned bachelor's degrees four years beyond high school graduation, but eventually catch up to their older peers six years beyond high school graduation.     

The Gautreaux Legacy: What Might Mixed‐Income and Dispersal Strategies Mean for the Poorest Public Housing Tenants?

Abstract

The current transformation of public and assisted housing reflects the legacy of the Gautreaux case, which created the first mobility and scattered‐site programs. Mixed‐income and dispersal strategies now dominate federal housing policy, although their focus has shifted. Drawing on evidence from two preliminary studies of public housing transformation in Chicago, we argue that these new strategies seem to offer benefits for distressed public housing communities but also involve risks for the most vulnerable current tenants. Increased screening and/or the need to compete with private market tenants may force these families out of the assisted housing market.

Addressing the complex needs of the most troubled public housing tenants will call for a more comprehensive solution. The intent of the Gautreaux case was to increase opportunity and enhance quality of life for public housing tenants; policy makers should take steps to ensure that current programs reflect these fundamental goals.     

Determinants of initial entry onto welfare by young women

Using data from the youngest cohorts of women in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this study constructs Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) histories starting at age 15. Most young women go on AFDC for the first time between ages 18 and 25 and do so in the first few years after the birth of their first baby. These histories are used to estimate models of the determinants of initial use of AFDC. The models provide mixed evidence that the financial or other incentives of welfare policy affect the likelihood and timing of AFDC use. Benefit levels do not seem to affect participation, but the presence of a program for medically needy families who are not on welfare appears to decrease entrance to welfare for some groups. Parental poverty, family structure, academic achievement, attitudes toward school, and race are significantly related to the likelihood of participating in AFDC, and the rate of entry. © 2000 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Affordability After Subsidies: Understanding the Trajectories of Former Assisted Housing in Florida

Each year, thousands of units are lost from the assisted rental housing inventory through deterioration and default, subsidy expiration, and market-rate conversion. While a good deal of research and data collection has focused on identifying at-risk developments, less is known about what happens to former assisted developments after they exit income and rent restrictions. This article uses a survey of former assisted properties in Florida to identify their postsubsidy trajectories—that is, as to whether developments continue as rental housing, are converted to condominiums, or leave the housing stock through vacancy and demolition; and for those that continue as rental housing, whether they continue to offer affordable rents. Using logistic regression models, the article examines the property, housing market, and neighborhood characteristics that determine these trajectories. The results show that smaller properties, those that have been out of subsidy programs longer, and those in stronger neighborhood housing markets are more likely to be converted to condominiums. Among developments that continue as rental housing, those that previously had more stringent rent restrictions, those in strong rental submarkets, and those with better transit access tend to become unaffordable compared with previous rent limits.     

Rental Housing Assistance and Health: Evidence From the Survey of Income and Program Participation

Interest in the health impacts of renter housing assistance has grown in the wake of heated national discussions on health care and social welfare spending. Assistance may improve renters’ health by offering (a) low, fixed housing costs; (b) protection against eviction; and (c) access to better homes and neighborhoods. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation and econometric analysis, I estimate the effect of receiving assistance from the public housing or Section 8 voucher programs on low-income renters’ reported health status and spending. Assisted renters spent less on health care over the year than unassisted low-income renters did, after controlling for other characteristics. This finding suggests that assisted housing leads to health benefits that may reduce low-income renters’ need to purchase health services. Voucher holders’ lower expenditures are influenced by their low, fixed housing costs, but public housing residents’ lower expenditures are not explained by existing theory.     

Desire for Smart Growth: A Survey of Residential Preferences in the Salt Lake Region of Utah

As an alternative to sprawling development, smart growth combines proximity to work, proximity to shopping and other destinations, neighborhood housing mix, shared and paid parking, complete street designs, and proximity to public transit. This article uses a stated-choice experiment to determine residents' attitudes toward these various aspects of smart growth in the Salt Lake region of Utah. Utah is a conservative state, where attitudes toward auto-oriented suburbia may be more positive than in other parts of the United States. So, one might wonder whether changing national attitudes toward smart growth, documented in several surveys, apply to residents of the Salt Lake region. In this stated-choice experiment, respondents were asked to choose between pairs of housing scenarios with different attributes and different prices. Mixed logit (random parameters logit) was used to relate individuals' choices to attributes, prices, and sociodemographic characteristics of respondents. The results show that, generally, respondents have positive attitudes toward most aspects of smart growth but still express preferences for single-family neighborhoods with free parking in their own driveways or garages. Different life cycle cohorts have different preferences. Proximity to work is more important for childless young adults. Young families with children place higher value on living in a neighborhood with only single-family homes and transit access. Retired empty nesters favor a mix of housing types over single-family housing on one-acre-plus lots. The results suggest that while residents of the Salt Lake region like suburban neighborhoods with primarily single-family houses, they would also like to have improved accessibility to amenities in the suburbs.     

Declining foreclosure neighborhood effects over time

According to previous studies, residential foreclosures reduce the value of neighboring residential units and the initial negative effects decay over time and space. This study attempts to investigate the temporal path of the initial effects by following cohorts of single-family housing distressed sales (foreclosures and real estate owned sales) over time. A hedonic model estimation of single-family housing sales in Saint Louis County, Missouri, produced larger marginal impacts for new distressed sales in the year 2000 compared with the marginal impact of new distressed sales in 2007, that is, the marginal impact of new distressed sales is declining in at least one housing market. This result holds true for the distressed sale neighborhood impact, the effect of distress on the same unit's future sales price, and the discount on a distressed unit's current “liquidation sale” price.     

Using housing vouchers to move to the suburbs: How do families fare?

Abstract

When families with Section 8 housing vouchers move from inner‐city communities to the suburbs, are they more likely to move to neighborhoods with higher socioeconomic status and to perceive improvements in housing and neighborhood conditions than those who make local moves or those who first move to the suburbs but then return to the central city? Both crosstabular and logistic regression analysis are applied to a telephone interview sample of 300 Section 8 voucher recipients in Oakland and Berkeley, CA.

As predicted, compared with the other two groups, suburban‐bound movers were more likely to move to neighborhoods with higher socioeconomic status and to experience better residential conditions, even when relevant background characteristics were controlled. Furthermore, few suburban‐bound movers experienced adjustment problems with neighbors or landlords, and their children quickly and smoothly adjusted to their new schools. The implications of these results for the Section 8 housing voucher program are discussed.     

Public housing desegregation: What are the options?

Abstract

This paper examines policy and programmatic options for the desegregation of low‐income public housing. Desegregation is a strategy for relocating public housing residents or units to communities that offer a better quality of life. This paper considers the likelihood of achieving desegregation, given the factors that created segregation, by exploring the role of past and present policies and programs in producing segregation and the effects of efforts to ameliorate it.

The major finding is that public housing segregation is firmly entrenched in many major cities, and attempts to reverse it have produced marginal changes. Although the federal government has ceased to play a major role in perpetuating racial segregation, it has not taken a strong, consistent, and clear stand on desegregation policy. Some innovative desegregation programs with promising outcomes are currently under way, but it is unlikely that public housing segregation will be abated in the future.     

Privatizing the housing sector: The case of Slovakia

The events of the 1980s generated the end of an era in central Europe—an era characterized by central, planned economies and totalitarian political structures. As each new country struggled to create democratic political processes and market economies, many problems emerged; one of the most vexing was the privatization of housing. In Slovakia, individual family housing had never been nationalized, leaving most of the rural and village families owning their own homes. Apartment houses, as well as multiple dwellings and estates, however, had been nationalized. Consequently, the state created a Restitution Act early on (1990), so that people could reclaim properties unjustly taken from them. In addition, the state had built considerable housing units (usually high-rise apartment blocks); many of these units were simply rented to individual families. But there had also been state construction companies that operated as co-operatives, such that rent payments were credited toward the eventual ownership of the housing. Lastly, many large industries (state owned) had built housing units, which they rented to their employees. But there were not nearly enough housing units, and many people, especially young people, newlyweds, and elderly, were on waiting lists for housing. In all cases ‘rent’ was almost negligible as were utilities, and since there were no taxes or insurance, the total amount of a family budget spent for housing was, on average, quite meagre. This, then, was the situation confronting the new government in 1990. Beginning with data from 1988, this article examines the economic restructuring, apartment construction, changes in proprietary relations, and issues as yet unresolved regarding the privatization of housing in Slovakia.     

城市居民住房满意度及其影响因素

让居民对其住房感到满意是建设和谐社会的一项重要内容。与一般商品的消费不同,居民对其住房满意与否不仅涉及到住房的品质和价格,还涉及到与此相关的外部环境,如小区环境、物业管理以及配套设施等因素。基于"适当性-重要性加权"模型,本研究从一个较为全面的视角探讨了城镇居民住房满意度水平的影响因素。研究发现:(1)住房的面积、住房的品质、小区环境以及物业管理等因素对居民住房满意度有着显著的影响。不过,这些因素的影响不及居民的家庭成员人数和对经济负担的主观感受等因素,更不及住房相关的公共配套设施对居民住房满意度的影响;(2)公共配套设施因素中的次类因素,如基础教育、医疗卫生以及生活服务设施等,对居民的住房满意度都有显著的影响。     

Maternal Mental Health during Children's First Year of Life: Association with Receipt of Section 8 Rental Assistance

Prior studies evaluating housing programs have found varied results for the impact of improved housing on maternal mental health. This study evaluated data from 169 families who participated in Hawaii's Healthy Start Program. The study's objective was to determine whether receipt of Section 8 rental assistance in the first year of a child's life decreased the risk of poor maternal mental health. Multivariable logistic regression was used to measure the association of Section 8 housing receipt with poor mental health. Overall, 50% of mothers had poor mental health at baseline, and 32% reported receipt of Section 8 housing at follow-up. Mothers who received Section 8 housing were significantly less likely to have poor maternal mental health at follow-up (adjusted odds ratio = .40; 95% confidence interval, .16–.97; p < .05). Receipt of Section 8 rental assistance in the first year of a child's life may reduce the risk of poor mental health for mothers in housing need.