"Small Peoples": The Existential Uncertainty of Ethnonational Communities

This exploratory paper attempts to extend the boundaries of research on the "smallness" of polities. It introduces the concept of "small peoples," a term coined by Czech author Milan Kundera to denote communities that lack a "sense of an eternal past and future." The paper posits "small peoples" as ethnic communities characterized by prolonged and deep-rooted uncertainty regarding their own existence. I argue that in modern times, "small peoples" doubt the validity of their past-based ethnic identity and the viability of their future-driven national polity . Empirically, I analyze two distinct "small peoples"—Israeli Jews and French Canadians (Québécois)—and argue that while the former have been more concerned with the future survival of their polity, the latter have been more concerned with insecurity about their identity. The paper suggests that a focus on communities and their intersubjective processes can enrich the study of states and their objective state.     

An Exploration of a Model of Social Networks and Multilateral Negotiations

Multilateral (many-party) negotiations are much more complex than traditional two-party negotiations. In this article, we explore a model of social network activity, especially clique formation, among parties engaged in multilateral negotiation and the implications that such networks might have on the negotiation process and outcome. Using data collected from 375 subjects participating in a negotiation simulation, our results reveal that, primarily, the negotiator's perspectives of clique formation (coalition building) — both his or her own and the other party's — have unique effects on the integrative, problem-solving approaches used in the process and on the negotiator's satisfaction with outcomes. Secondarily, centrality (manifest as emergent power) has a positive effect on both problem solving and satisfaction. Interestingly, we found that those players who emerged as the most dominant and powerful were not as satisfied (in relative levels) as those who were less powerful.     

Reputation concerns in aid conditionality

This paper analyzes the conditions under which reputation concerns induce donors and recipients to respect conditional aid contracts. Donors enforce conditionality if the benefits of improving compliance in future contracts thanks to a tougher reputation exceed the costs of resisting disbursement pressure. The level of conditionality enforcement is optimal if all the costs and benefits of reputation building are internalized by the decision maker. This condition is not satisfied at the World Bank and the IMF, where enforcement is decentralized to country departments which do not internalize the benefits of a tough reputation on other departments. Recipients comply with conditionality if the costs of implementing conditionality are lower than the benefits of securing tranche release thanks to compliance and obtaining future contracts thanks to a good reputation for compliance. Reputation concerns increase recipients’ incentives to comply only if there is some uncertainty on future aid commitments, which is true for successive single-tranche contracts, but not for multi-tranche contracts.     

“Survival Mode”: Rebel Resilience and the Lord’s Resistance Army

ABSTRACT

To date, scholarly work on armed groups has seldom considered the notion of rebel resilience, or the factors that enable these groups to survive despite time, military pressure, and the myriad contingent events of civil war. In an effort to develop an explanatory framework for resilience as a distinct outcome of civil war and rebellion, this article examines the conditions under which the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) has persisted for nearly three decades. Based on fieldwork and original research, the article explains the LRA’s resilience in light of the group’s organizational structure and resource self-sufficiency, which have been well suited for the borderlands of East and Central Africa. The LRA is a key case of rebel resilience. It is important because it sheds light on the organizational foundations of armed groups, the relationship between resources and rebellion, and the broader study of conflict duration and termination. Understanding the sources of the LRA’s resilience can inform efforts to end such insurgencies.     

Minority Matters: 12 Angry Men as a Case Study of a Successful Negotiation against the Odds

In his famous book, Social Influence and Social Change , celebrated social psychologist Serge Moscovici contended that minorities influence change by creating conflict. Because people wish to avoid conflict, they will often dismiss the minority position. But when the minority refuses to be dismissed by remaining committed to its position and maintaining a well-defined and coherent point of view, then the minority can make the majority reconsider its beliefs and consider the minority's position as a viable alternative. Moscovici identified five key aspects of the minority's influential behavior: consistency, investment, autonomy, rigidity, and fairness.
In this article we analyze the negotiation process depicted in the 1957 film 12 Angry Men . This critically acclaimed film powerfully illustrates the dynamics of bargaining and the use of informal authority with a focus on the role of personality. The film illustrates how, by adopting the five behavioral strategies described by Moscovici, the minority — in this case a lone dissenting juror — is able to successfully negotiate and, against the odds, influence the overwhelming majority comprising the other eleven jurors.     

Any Publicity or Good Publicity? A Competitive Test of Visibility- and Tonality-Based Media Effects on Voting Behavior

When examining media effects on voting intentions, scholars of political communication have either focused on visibility- or tonality-based effects. Our study compares these effect models, asking whether the explanations are complementary or competitive; it goes beyond previous studies by considering interactions between media cues and voters’ attitudes. We draw on panel survey data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) that is combined with content analysis data of the main evening news broadcast in Germany. Findings show that visibility- and tonality-based effects are similar in potency, but tone-based effects are more contingent on attitudes toward parties and candidates. Both types of cues can backfire: higher visibility and more positive tonality can have negative effects on some attitude groups, which is in part moderated by the expectations about government coalitions. We find that visibility and tonality are rather complementary cues that both influence voting behavior. Implications are discussed.     

印度尼西亚石油分成合同管理条款的形成和效果浅析

印度尼西亚独立后,开始推行石油分成合同制度,在现代石油开采合同机制中,形成了异于传统特许制的新合同关系,其突出变化在于改变由外企完全控制经营的局面。规定特许制度所没有的管理条款,强调东道国介入石油运营管理,国际石油公司不再垄断石油开发企业的经营管理权。但在外国石油企业依然具有技术和管理优势的情况下,管理条款的实际效果究竟如何,有待分析。     

The Cognitive Demands of a Negotiation Curriculum: What Does It Mean to “Get”Getting to YES?

A leading theory of human development — constructive-developmental theory — posits that people make meaning in qualitatively different ways through the course of their lives and that their meaning-making capacities continue to evolve even in adulthood. This article begins with a brief introduction to constructive-developmental theory, including its roots in Jean Piaget's work on child development and Robert Kegan's more recent work on adult development. The author then explores the different ways in which students at different developmental stages might make sense of the same negotiation concepts. The article discusses some implications of these diverse understandings for negotiation teachers in terms of goal setting, evaluation, teaching methods, and transformational learning. It then concludes with a suggestion for more research on the connections between constructive–developmentalism and negotiation pedagogy.     

Contracting with Whom? The Differential Effects of Investment Treaties on FDI

Under what conditions can governments use international commitments such as Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) to attract foreign direct investment (FDI)? Although numerous studies have attempted to answer this question, none considers how investment treaties may have heterogeneous affects across industry. I argue BIT effect is strongest when the obsolescing bargaining problem between firms and governments is most protracted, namely, when FDI relies on strong contracts between firms and states. Using a time series cross-sectional data set of 114 developing countries from 1985 to 2011, I find BITs are associated with increases in infrastructure investment, an industry particularly reliant on the sanctity of government contracts, but not with total FDI inflows. Moreover, BITs with strong arbitration provisions display the strongest statistical effect on infrastructure investment, while BITs that do not provide investors with such protections are not associated with increased investment. My results have implications for both scholarship on the relationship between governments and multinational firms as well as for the study of international institutions more broadly. To properly ascertain the effects of international treaties and institutions, scholars should consider not just whether institutions constrain or inform—or matter at all—but also the extent to which the targets of institutions have heterogeneous responses to them.     

Why Hungary and Poland differed in 1989: The role of medium-term frames in explaining the outcomes of democratic transition

This article has two goals. First, it seeks to enhance our understanding of the factors underlying the divergent outcomes of the round-table negotiations that accompanied transition from communism in Hungary and Poland. It argues that existing explanations emphasizing aspects of the immediate negotiating context should be supplemented by a medium-term perspective focusing on the frames through which actors conceived the options available. The second goal is to argue for an understanding of democratization as the outcome of complex, contingent and prolonged processes of interaction among actors and between actors and context. This does not imply that parsimonious modelling is not useful in democratization studies. But to understand democratization processes fully, modelling approaches need to be combined with more configurative study of historical processes.     

Winners,Losers, and the Press: The Relationship Between Political Parallelism and the Legitimacy Gap

Recent work has explored how individual and institutional factors affect the gap in perceptions of political legitimacy between electoral winners and electoral losers, but has ignored the role that the political information environment, in general, and ideologically biased media, in particular, plays in exacerbating or diminishing this gap. By combining individual-level public opinion data in 28 countries, an expert survey on media systems, and a variety of country-level indicators, I find that higher levels of political parallelism in a country are associated with a larger winner-loser gap in institutional trust and satisfaction with democracy. The relationship is contingent on whether or not people are actually exposed to said media. This research, which links the study of political communication with the study of comparative political behavior, indicates that the increasing availability of partisan news around the world is a cause for concern.     

Leadership Style, Regime Type, and Foreign Policy Crisis Behavior: A Contingent Monadic Peace?

While a substantial body of theory suggests that democracies should behave peacefully toward all states (monadically), most empirical evidence indicates they are only pacific in their relations with fellow democracies (dyadically). A new theoretical synthesis suggests that the missing link between democratic constraints and pacific monadic behavior is leaders' perceptions of, and responses to, these constraints. Research on political leadership indicates that, contrary to conventional wisdom, leaders respond in systematically different ways to domestic constraints: "constraint respecters" internalize constraints in their environments, while "constraint challengers" view such constraints as obstacles to be surmounted. An analysis of 154 foreign policy crises provides strong support for this contingent monadic thesis: democracies led by constraint respecters stand out as extraordinarily pacific in their crisis responses, while democracies led by constraint challengers and autocracies led by both types of leaders are demonstrably more aggressive.     

Exploring FDR'S relationship with the press: A historical agenda‐setting study

This historical agenda‐setting study examined the extent to which Franklin Roosevelt's issue agenda, as expressed in his first seven State of the Union speeches, correlated with subsequent coverage in seven major newspapers and the degree to which newspaper coverage correlated with FDR's issue agenda. While past works have emphasized Roosevelt's ability to influence media coverage, this study suggests that Roosevelt reacted to previous coverage more than he influenced subsequent coverage. Past researchers contend that Roosevelt's strong support early in his first term deteriorated subsequently. By contrast, our study found stronger correlations between FDR's issue agenda and subsequent coverage later in his presidency. FDR reacted to, rather than influenced, coverage in newspapers he read and influenced coverage in newspapers he did not read. Roosevelt's issue agenda posted stronger correlations for the papers that supported him than those that opposed him. This study suggests, then, that historical conditions, amount of exposure to the newspaper, and political leanings of the newspaper are contingent conditions influencing the agenda‐setting process and should be considered in future agenda‐setting studies.     

Teaching for Implementation: Designing Negotiation Curricula to Maximize Long-Term Learning

Most negotiation students — and their instructors — aspire to develop negotiation skills that they can transfer to real-world contexts beyond the classroom. Instructors can maximize the likelihood of long-term learning through transfer-oriented curriculum design. Curriculum design elements likely to support lasting and flexible learning include (1) articulation of clear, performance-oriented goals; (2) careful selection of a range of learning activities tailored toward those goals, including activities that promote schema development and adjustment, activities that promote behavioral skill development, and activities that reinforce explicit theoretical understanding; (3) provision of multiple opportunities for constructive feedback from a variety of sources; and (4) the facilitation of self-reflection and metacognition.     

Mediation Practice in the South African Construction Industry: The Influence of Culture, the Legislative Environment, and the Professional Institutions

We studied mediation practice in the South African construction industry by surveying sixty-three mediators. We found that mediators are more intent on resolving disputes for the parties than on assisting the parties to find their own settlements. In addition, we found that greater emphasis by parties to the dispute is placed on technical expertise, authority, and a clear understanding of the matter in dispute than on moving the parties toward an in-depth understanding of each other's perspectives. We conclude that mediation practice in the South African construction industry is not consistent with generally accepted principles of mediation. We also argue that the fragmented and potentially adversarial traditional procurement system predominantly used in South Africa, together with the inadequate institutional response in promoting mediation as a preferred dispute resolution method, is encouraging mediation to develop in this way. This is cause for concern, not only because this practice represents a departure from the underlying philosophy of mediation — dialogue aimed at amicable and long-lasting solutions that are in everyone's best interests — but because it is incompatible with the Southern African worldview concept of ubuntu .     

Labor Diplomacy: A Revitalized Aspect of U.S. Foreign Policy in the Era of Globalization

This article analyzes how and why labor diplomacy has become an important element of American foreign policy in recent years. "Labor diplomacy"—a term coined by practitioners in the Department of State—refers to the work performed principally by labor officers (also called labor attachés) at American embassies around the world and, more specifically, the advocacy and promotion of core labor standards within the context of U.S. human rights and international trade policy. The five internationally recognized core labor standards, as developed by the International Labor Organization (ILO), are: freedom of association; the right of collective bargaining; the elimination of forced labor; the effective abolition of child labor; and the elimination of discrimination in employment and occupation. The article explores the economic, political, and bureaucratic factors that contributed to the revitalization of labor diplomacy during the 1990s. These include: a growing appreciation for the linkage between labor standards and trade in the globalized economy; the Clinton administration's decision to pursue a closer relationship with the AFL-CIO, particularly after the 1997 "fast-track" debacle; and the changing bureaucratic dynammics within the Department of State. The article also reviews U.S. initiatives, both through the ILO and unilaterally, to strengthen respect for core labor standards around the world, and how these efforts have helped shape American policy toward the World Trade Organization. The article concludes with an analysis of the outcome of the recent WTO Ministerial Meeting in Seattle and a prognosis on the future of labor diplomacy.     

Expectations,Rivalries, and Civil War Duration

This paper criticizes the status quo position in African politics on two accounts. First it furthered the consolidation of the state system, and thereby, the failure of integration on the continental level. Second, it resulted in the spread and escalation of ethnic conflicts as a reaction to the suppression of the aspirations for independent expression and equality.

At one level, explaining ethnic conflict requires the reconstruction, in terms of a theory, of the specific context in which it occurs. In this regard, we suggest that ethnic conflicts in Africa are an outgrowth of the consideration that ethnicity constitutes the dominant mode of political practice akin to the state system of dependent, nurture capitalism. Four conditions determine the conflictive potentialities of the ethnic situation: communalization of political practice, catastrophic balance between ethnic groups, economic and political inequalities, and articulation of class conflict and ethnic organization.

Conflict and integration processes are grounded in the dynamics of identity formation. Our hypothesis is that identity formation is contingent on four elements: a) maximum structured relations; b) minimum differentiation; c) maximum ideological interpellation; and d) maximum unity of labor processes. By projecting these conditions on African politics, we advance the thesis that integration in Africa could be worked out as a mode of ethnic conflict resolution and prevention if, in addition to the progressive substantiation of the four elements mentioned above, it takes place on the continental level.     

New Event Data in Conflict Research

This paper first presents an overview of data on 390 international crises, which incorporate 826 foreign policy crises, from the end of 1918 to the end of 1988.

A set of crisis profiles is then constructed for the two superpowers of the post‐World War II era, and for three regional systems, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The data on international crises are presented in terms of a common format for the regional profiles, with slight modifications for the superpowers, in order to facilitate comparisons: time and space; duration; onset; threat; behavior; severity of violence; US/USSR activity; global organization involvement; and outcome. Within these categories, distributions are noted for each of the polarity structures—multipolarity (1918–39), bipolarity (1945–62), and polycentrism (1963–1988). Thereafter, comparisons are made between US and USSR crises (after World War II), and among the three regional profiles.

The central thrust of the findings from these profiles is clear: they focus attention on the dual characteristics of twentieth century crises, their pervasiveness and diversity. These traits, in turn, make much more difficult the task of constructing a theory that provides a systematic explanation of interstate crisis from onset to termination. Complex reality imposes an intolerable burden on the search for necessary and sufficient conditions of crisis. In positive terms, it leads to a shift in focus, from ‘necessary and sufficient’ to the “most likely” conditions as the most credible path to theory.