The Asianization of East Asian security and the United States’ role

The Asianization of East Asian security has been unfolding in the forms of the emergence of a genuinely regional security complex, the Asian initiative of security dialogue, and the assertion of an Asian way of diplomacy. Ironically, the uncertainties surrounding the United States' role are a key factor driving regionalization and, at the same time, a critical security issue in the emerging regional security complex. The essentiality of the U.S. role provides Washington with key leverage to ensure a role commensurate with its centrality in East Asian security. In light of the danger and opportunities regionalization presents for U.S. policy, it is vital to distinguish rhetoric from reality and to discern paradoxical developments in the Asianization movement. By its continued commitment to working with other regional powers, and its activism in promoting security multilateralism through ASEAN-Regional Forum (ARF), the U.S. can ensure that regionalization leads to an Asia-Pacific security complex that contains threats wherever they arise.     

Changing roles: China and the United States in East Asian security

Since the end of the cold war, many changes have been occurring in the East Asian strategic landscape. As the two most significant elements of the East Asian security equation, China and the United States share a special obligation to secure the present and future stability in the West Pacific. Both countries have to adjust their respective roles in response to the changing strategic environment: while China should take a more cooperative stance on regional security issues, the United States should be more sensitive and accommodative to regional demands. There exist several scenarios for the future of Sino-American relations, but it is desirable and possible for Beijing and Washington to form a constructive partnership with security cooperation as one underpinning pillar.     

ASEAN and Northeast Asian energy security: Cooperation or competition?

For several decades, Northeast Asia has invested heavily in ASEAN’s fossil fuel industries. This investment has been fundamental in ASEAN’s industrial and regional development and has also been a main source of foreign exchange. In recent years, however, while energy demand in Japan and Korea has been slowing down, it has begun to increase rapidly in ASEAN at a time when some of its own oil and gas fields are beginning to decline. The sharp rise in ASEAN's demand for energy is partly the result of massive FDI from Northeast Asia in manufacturing enterprises. This investment is enabling ASEAN to become less dependent on the export of fossil fuels for foreign exchange. Indonesia has already announced it is reducing its energy exports to Japan because it wants to use the fuel domestically. Without doubt, the other ASEAN energy exporting countries will also soon be reconsidering their energy export contracts with Northeast Asia.     

The East Asian financial meltdown

In view of China's economic growth and rising international status, Latin American and Caribbean countries will accord increasing priority to their relations with the Asian giant. China's permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council is also a factor to reckon with. Today, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela and Mexico have established strategic partnerships with China. While the vast distance between China and Latin America generates difficulties in transportation and mutual understanding, it also means that both parties have no serious conflicts of strategic and political interests. Their Third World orientations in diplomacy contribute to a 95% concurrence in their votes in the United Nations. While the Chinese leadership seeks to promote multipolarity to curb US unilateralism, it appreciates its limitations in Latin America. In addition, China and the Latin American and Caribbean countries value good relations with the US. In the foreseeable future, China will increase its investment in Latin America and more Sino-Latin American business joint ventures will be formed. These trends may well reduce trade frictions associated with China's economic expansion.     

中国东亚战略的展开

东亚是中国崛起的战略核心地区。随着东亚制度化合作的进一步推进,中国东亚战略的走向成为世界关注的重要议题。本文概述了中国与东亚关系的发展历程,总结了中国东亚战略的得失,指出中国正在成为东亚负责任的利益攸关方,并通过与地区内各国达成以共同利益为导向的建设性合作,为中国地区战略的优化奠定了基础。本文认为,展望未来,中国应推动创建东亚利益共同体,全面推进东亚合作,确立基于开放地区主义的新单边主义、新双边主义和新多边主义战略路径。     

国际金融动荡对东亚经济的影响

目前,美国正在经历一场金融危机,此次危机已经开始向全球扩散,美国经济衰退初露端倪.本文首先对比分析了此次美国经济衰退和1997年亚洲金融危机的异同点,然后对本次经济衰退的原因做了深层次的分析,最后进一步探讨了本次经济衰退对东亚经济和中 国经济的影响.     

韩国与东亚地区主义的未来

本文首先回顾了东亚各国签订双边和多边自由贸易协定的历程,认为随着东亚各国相互依赖的加强,东亚的经济一体化将进一步加深,并提出了未来东亚地区主义发展的三种可能方案,进而分析了各种方案可能性的程度。韩国无论在经济领域还是战略方面,都应该在建立东亚合作的进程中发挥重要作用。一定程度上,东盟和韩国在东亚地区自由贸易协定达成的过程中拥有更广阔的空间,同时在中日之间也发挥着协调者和推动者的重要角色。     

论东亚一体化的动力与源泉

东亚一体化的原动力之一是东南亚地区的一体化,最近几年蓬勃发展的中国-东盟合作则为东亚一体化进程增添了新的动力.冷战结束后,中国-东盟经济合作的步伐逐步加快,从发展双边的经济贸易关系开始到中国-东盟自由贸易区计划的提出和启动,为更大范围的东亚区域经济合作和一体化起到了加速器的作用.中国-东盟合作有可能成为推动整个东亚一体化进程的发动机.     

东亚认同的发展与培育

随着东亚地区合作与整合的发展,东亚认同也产生和发展起来.东亚认同的产生和发展既有客观原因,也有主观培育的因素.本文将着重分析,相互依存对于地区认同的促进,文化的相互激荡对于地区认同的影响,以及巨大的差异性对于地区认同的复杂作用.地区认同必然是客观原因与主观因素结合的结果.本文对于培育东亚认同提出了思考途径.     

东亚共同体:构想与进程

“东亚共同体”作为一种东亚地区整合的构想,它的雏形可以追溯到20世纪90年代的“马哈蒂尔倡议”。亚洲金融危机爆发后,东盟 3合作机制启动,东亚地区合作蓬勃兴起。《东亚展望小组报告》和《东亚研究小组最终报告》系统规划了“东亚共同体”建设的蓝图,日本也提出了自己的设想,马来西亚则是“东亚共同体”构想和进程的持续推动者。     

新东亚区域主义发展及其影响

东亚区域主义的发展经历了两个阶段.第一阶段是从20世纪60年代中期至90年代初,表现为东南亚次区域主义的发展.第二阶段是从90年代中期至今,其特点包括:区域主义由东南亚发展到整个东亚;经济合作与政治、安全合作同时发展;开放性与板块性并存;东盟发挥主导作用与中、日逐渐愿意承担更多义务同在;开始构建东亚认同的进程等.东亚区域主义发展将使中日两国可以更多地在区域合作框架内处理相互关系,以开放的区域主义处理与美国的关系,在东亚形成"反独促统"的区域框架.     

东亚旅游业的发展与合作前景

东亚旅游合作是近年来东亚合作一个新的亮点,然而未能在整个区域层次上实现整合.目前,东亚旅游合作主要分布在三个层次上:东盟内部、东盟与中日韩.东亚旅游合作已取得了一些实质性的进展,并建立了一些固定的交流与联系机制.2003年的非典危机给东亚旅游合作提出了新的挑战,并提供了一个契机.要进一步推进旅游合作仍面临诸多困难,为此作者提出了几点具体政策建议.     

东亚货币同盟:理想与现实

东亚有可能实行某种形式的货币同盟.在开始将是实行共同单一钉住.东亚必须通过加强货币合作来推动地区货币一体化,最终建立东亚货币同盟.东亚有可能在货币一体化的机制化方面先行一步."东盟+3"合作框架对于实现某种形式的货币同盟将起到推动作用.     

东亚地区主义的进展与其问题--能否打破现实主义的思维牢笼

本文试图讨论东亚地区合作取得的进展与存在的问题,从而说明东亚地区主义的根本方向.     

评《东亚经济的发展与调整》

2003年8月山东省社会科学院对外经济研究所研究中邵志勤出版了一部专著——<东亚经济的发展与调整>(以下简称<简整>).这是中国社会科学院亚洲太平洋研究所与世界知识出版社合作出版的"亚太丛书"中的一部.通读全书,总是感觉是:本书从理论到实际,还有大量的数据分析,问我们展示了东亚经济发展与调整的全貌,是一部可读性强、有学术深度的著作.     

《东亚区域主义:趋势与回应》一书即将出版

由中国社会科学院亚洲太平洋研究所张蕴岭研究员主编的《东亚区域主义:趋势与回应》(英文版)一书即将由世界知识出版社出版。该书是2001年启动的东亚合作研究项目的成果之一,也是此前出版的《东亚合作:进展与未来》、《东亚合作:寻求协调一致的方式》的姐妹篇。     

东亚安全:合作模式与结构

在安全体簇生的东亚地区,并存有美国主导的东亚联盟体系式安全合作、东盟地区主义式安全合作、中国倡行的多边协治式安全合作等三种安全合作模式,其中,美国的东亚联盟体系式安全合作模式在复合型的东亚安全结构中占据主导地位,而东盟和中国所倡行的安全合作模式,还停留在安全合作观念倡导和通过集体联合来尝试性建构地区制度性安全纽带的层面。东亚地区所存在的三种安全合作模式之间,是一种不平等的权力相互制衡关系。再加上地区范围内大国间的结构性对抗和潜在冲突,东亚安全困境的产生和存在成为必然。东亚目前不具备建构地区多边安全合作机制的可能,三种安全合作模式的共存仍将是地区安全结构的主要内容,复合型的安全结构态势将长期存在。