Measurement Error in County-Level UCR Data

Maltz and Targonski (2002) have provided an important service by disaggregating the county level data to help researchers examine measurement errors in the county level data, but their conclusion that county-level crime data, as they are currently constituted, should not be used, especially in policy studies is not justified. All data has measurement error, presumably even their measures of this error. Unfortunately, however, Maltz and Targonski provide no systematic test for how bad the data are. Their graphs obscure both the small number of counties affected, that these are rural counties, and that just because some of the population in a county is not represented in calculating the crime rate, that is not the same thing as showing that the reported number is in error. Nor do they provide evidence for the more important issue of whether there is a systematic bias in the data. The evidence provided here indicates right-to-carry laws continue to produce substantial reductions in violent crime rates when states with the greatest measurement error are excluded. In fact, restricting the sample results in somewhat larger reductions in murders and robberies, but smaller reductions in aggravated assaults.     

BITING ONCE,TWICE: THE INFLUENCE OF PRIOR ON SUBSEQUENT CRIME LOCATION CHOICE

Properties, victims, and locations previously targeted by offenders have an increased risk of being targeted again within a short time period. It has been suggested that often the same offenders are involved in these repeated events and, thus, that offenders’ prior crime location choices influence their subsequent crime location choices. This article examines repeated crime location choices, testing the hypothesis that offenders are more likely to commit a crime in an area they previously targeted than in areas they did not target before. Unique data from four different data sources are used to study the crime location choices of 3,666 offenders who committed 12,639 offenses. The results indicate that prior crime locations strongly influence subsequent crime location choices. The effects of prior crime locations are larger if the crimes are frequent, if they are recent, if they are nearby, and if they are the same type of crime.     

The future of crime data

Criminology lacks sufficient data for many types of crime that are of great concern to society. This lack of data poses significant problems for determining whether resources are adequate for responding to these crimes or whether programmatic, legislative, or target-hardening efforts to prevent or reduce their occurrence are effective. Inadequate data about crime also produces a selective and incomplete narrative about crime that makes it easier for political and vested interests to exploit public concerns about crime for their own ends. In this address, I discuss what is needed to resolve these gaps and the ways in which criminologists can support a significant expansion of the crime data infrastructure. Such work is necessary to help ensure the future relevance of criminological research.     

DOES CRIME JUST MOVE AROUND THE CORNER? A CONTROLLED STUDY OF SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT AND DIFFUSION OF CRIME CONTROL BENEFITS*

Recent studies point to the potential theoretical and practical benefits of focusing police resources on crime hot spots. However, many scholars have noted that such approaches risk displacing crime or disorder to other places where programs are not in place. Although much attention has been paid to the idea of displacement, methodological problems associated with measuring it have often been overlooked. We try to fill these gaps in measurement and understanding of displacement and the related phenomenon of diffusion of crime control benefits. Our main focus is on immediate spatial displacement or diffusion of crime to areas near the targeted sites of an intervention. Do focused crime prevention efforts at places simply result in a movement of offenders to areas nearby targeted sites—“do they simply move crime around the corner”? Or, conversely, will a crime prevention effort focusing on specific places lead to improvement in areas nearby—what has come to be termed a diffusion of crime control benefits? Our data are drawn from a controlled study of displacement and diffusion in Jersey City, New Jersey. Two sites with substantial street‐level crime and disorder were targeted and carefully monitored during an experimental period. Two neighboring areas were selected as “catchment areas” from which to assess immediate spatial displacement or diffusion. Intensive police interventions were applied to each target site but not to the catchment areas. More than 6,000 20‐minute social observations were conducted in the target and catchment areas. They were supplemented by interviews and ethnographic field observations. Our findings indicate that, at least for crime markets involving drugs and prostitution, crime does not simply move around the corner. Indeed, this study supports the position that the most likely outcome of such focused crime prevention efforts is a diffusion of crime control benefits to nearby areas.     

巨额财产来源不明罪的博弈分析

巨额财产来源不明罪这一罪名自设立之日起,就在刑法理论界和司法实践中引起了广泛的争议,本文试图运用博弈论这一数学方法为工具,通过比较相关当事人的收益在有无该罪名时的变化,分析研究该罪名怎样影响他们最终的决定,结果表明,虽然巨额财产来源不明罪对贪污腐败分子有一定的威慑作用,对反腐倡廉有一定的司法救济作用,但总体来看,由于该罪名客观上减少了司法机关取证的激励,增大了潜在的腐败分子的期望收益,与最初的立法宗旨背道而驰,因此该罪名的设立是弊大于利。     

国际犯罪与涉外犯罪、跨国犯罪关系辨析——以基础概念解析为进路

国际犯罪与涉外犯罪、跨国犯罪之间虽然在起源上具有不可磨灭的历史渊源,但它们在内容上并不具有同一或者包容关系,而是一种即相互交叉又彼此保持一定独立性的关系。只有当涉外犯罪、跨国犯罪具有"国际性"时,即它们的危害性达到国际刑法所要求的严重程度时,才能上升为国际犯罪。而在国际犯罪中,除了具有国际性的涉外犯罪和跨国犯罪外,还包括具有国际性的既不属于涉外犯罪又不属于跨国犯罪的单纯的国内犯罪。     

Employment,age, race,and crime: A labor theoretic investigation

The fundamental objective of this paper has been to reinvestigate the relationship between employment and crime, while taking account of deterrence, age and race effects. The data, a sample of Brooklyn arrestees, was collected by the Vera Institute of Justice simply to explore, with individual data, the relationship between employment and crime. In this research, a labor theoretic formulation is used incorporating a model that views the problem as one of rational choice between legitimate work and participation in crime. Factors affecting the diminution of crime participation with age are investigated. Changes at age 18 in economic opportunities and in deterrence effects from moving from juvenile to adult status are found to have a significant impact on crime participation. The results are important because they tend to confirm with official crime report data, results found in earlier studies using self-report data, i.e., (1) when the process is appropriately modeled, previous contacts with police are found to cause some experimenters with crime to become desisters, (2) prior work experience and economic opportunities tend to reinforce this tendency to desist, (3) even though blacks are found to have a greater prevalence of involvement in crime, when the data are standardized for all of the aforementioned factors and educational attainment, there is no significant difference between blacks and whites in their tendency to recidivate.     

WE NEVER CALL THE COPS AND HERE IS WHY: A QUALITATIVE EXAMINATION OF LEGAL CYNICISM IN THREE PHILADELPHIA NEIGHBORHOODS*

This article presents data from the completed first wave of a multiwave comparative study of crime, danger, and informal social control that focuses on youth living in three high‐crime neighborhoods in Philadelphia, PA (N= 147). The study is a purposive sample of delinquent and nondelinquent young men and women in one predominantly African‐American, one predominantly Latino, and one predominantly white neighborhood, and researchers have completed in‐depth interviews and self‐reports with each subject. This article focuses on the narratives that youth living in high‐crime neighborhoods build around their contact with police and the strategies the young people propose for crime reduction in their communities. The data illustrate that most youth in each neighborhood are negatively disposed toward police and that this is grounded in the lived experience of negative encounters with law enforcement. However, when youth expounded on what they thought would reduce crime, they overwhelmingly chose increased and tougher law enforcement. We analyze these findings to determine whether support exists for a subcultural approach or a cultural attenuation/procedural justice argument, and we explore the implications of our findings for community‐based crime control.     

Perception of Seriousness and Concern about White-Collar Crime: Some Results of an Opinion Survey Among Swiss Banks

Scientifically, little is known about white-collar crime in Switzerland or concern about white-collar crime and even less about how concerned bank employees are about this criminality. This article is based on a small opinion survey of Swiss bank employees and tries to explore perceptions of seriousness and concern about white-collar crime among people who, in their position, might have to face this issue regularly. Past assumptions on the public’s indifference towards white-collar crime seem not to be confirmed in this study as the results obtained demonstrate a greater sensitivity with respect to white-collar crime and especially towards crimes perpetrated by corporations. Even though Swiss bank employees do qualify white-collar offences as very serious acts, they are still more punitive with regard to ordinary crimes.     

IS BEING “SPIRITUAL” ENOUGH WITHOUT BEING RELIGIOUS? A STUDY OF VIOLENT AND PROPERTY CRIMES AMONG EMERGING ADULTS

Although prior research has had a tendency to confirm a negative association between religiousness and crime, criminologists have been slow to incorporate new concepts and emergent issues from the scientific study of religion into their own research. The self‐identity phrase “spiritual but not religious” is one of them, which has been increasingly used by individuals who claim to be “spiritual” but disassociate themselves from organized religion. This study first examines differences in crime between “spiritual‐but‐not‐religious” individuals and their “religious‐and‐spiritual,” “religious‐but‐not‐spiritual,” and “neither‐religious‐nor‐spiritual” peers in emerging adulthood. Specifically, we hypothesize that the spiritual‐but‐not‐religious young adults are more prone to crime than their “religious” counterparts, while expecting them to be different from the “neither” group without specifying whether they are more or less crime prone. Second, the expected group differences in crime are hypothesized to be explained by the microcriminological theories of self‐control, social bonding, and general strain. Latent‐variable structural equation models were estimated separately for violent and property crimes using the third wave of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. The overall results tend to provide a partial support for the hypotheses. Implications for criminology and future research are discussed.     

TRAJECTORIES OF CRIME AT PLACES: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF STREET SEGMENTS IN THE CITY OF SEATTLE*

Studies of crime at micro places have generally relied on cross‐sectional data and reported the distributions of crime statistics over short periods of time. In this paper we use official crime data to examine the distribution of crime at street segments in Seattle, Washington, over a 14‐year period. We go beyond prior research in two ways. First, we view crime trends at places over a much longer period than other studies that have examined micro places. Second, we use group‐based trajectory analysis to uncover distinctive developmental trends in our data. Our findings support the view that micro places generally have stable concentrations of crime events over time. However, we also find that a relatively small proportion of places belong to groups with steeply rising or declining crime trajectories and that these places are primarily responsible for overall city trends in crime. These findings are particularly important given the more general decline in crime rates observed in Seattle and many other American cities in the 1990s. Our study suggests that the crime drop can be understood not as a general process that occurred across the city landscape but one that was generated in a relatively small group of micro places with strong declining crime trajectories over time.     

Immigration effects on crime in a midwestern,nontraditional destination: a neighborhood-level analysis of Cincinnati,Ohio

Abstract

A wide-ranging body of research on the immigration-crime relationship has shown that immigration does not increase community crime levels. However, most prior studies have focused on traditional immigrant destinations or border cities. This study addresses several gaps in this line of research by exploring immigration effects on neighborhood levels of Violent and Property Index crimes for the 2008 to 2014 period in Cincinnati, Ohio – a Midwestern, mid-sized, nontraditional immigrant destination. Overall, our findings are consistent with previous research and indicate that controlling for other factors, the percent foreign-born has largely neutral effects on census tract-level crime rates in Cincinnati. Moreover, our findings show no signs of indirect effects of immigration on crime through neighborhood disadvantage.     

Measurement and Other Errors in County-Level UCR Data: A Reply to Lott and Whitley

Lott and Whitley note that our analyses of the errors in the county-level UCR data used in More Guns, Less Crime (J. R. Lott, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1998, 2000) ignore the fact that all data have measurement error, that the largest errors were in counties with low populations, and that population-weighted regressions were used. We agree that this mitigates some of the effects of the errors, but does not take them fully into account. We also note that this is but one of the problems associated with the analysis. We therefore find no reason to alter our original conclusion, that in their current condition, county-level UCR crime statistics cannot be used for evaluating the effects of changes in policy.     

The Dark Figure of Online Property Crime: Is Cyberspace Hiding a Crime Wave?

A pronounced drop in crime, since the early 1990s, has encompassed every crime category tracked by the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, including property crime. However, over the same period, the rates of online property crime (OPC) have been on the rise according to available evidence. We delineate the extent of our knowledge and data concerning cybercrime and identity theft and, using data from several nationally representative victimization surveys, offer an alternative view of property crime trends while pointing out the glaring gap in crime reporting and accounting in relation to the growing category of property crimes perpetrated online. In addition, we compare estimated costs of traditional property crime vs. OPC. Finally, we identify the main challenges for obtaining reliable data on OPC and discuss their implications, especially when applying the traditional methods of compiling crime statistics.     

Violent Crime in the Urban Community: A Comparison of Stockholm and Basel

In this article the authors present some preliminary findings from a comparative study of police recorded violent crimes in Stockholm and Basel. They present the first results from a comparative analysis of the situational context, the ecology of crime, and of offender residences in these cities. There is impressive evidence of basic similarities in the situational context of violent crime and the residential distribution of violent offenders. Yet there are also significant differences, some of which may have interesting implications for crime prevention. Firstly, violent crime seems to be more highly concentrated during weekend nights in Stockholm than in Basel. Secondly, they find evidence that the presence of weapons in a community increases the risk of more serious outcomes of violent events. Efforts to reduce the availability of weapons may thus have significant effects on the outcomes of violence, but not necessarily on its frequency. Thirdly, they show that offenders in both cities are highly concentrated in socially disorganised communities with few economic and social resources.     

THE BIG PICTURE: 2010 PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS TO THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY*

Microanalysis holds sway over macroanalysis in contemporary criminology. All of criminology would be better off if greater attention were devoted to the big picture—the relationship between crime and the interplay of institutions in the social systems of whole societies. Microlevel researchers often assume that the reduction of individual criminal propensities leads ipso facto to reductions in aggregate crime rates, but the implied connection is illusive, has not been demonstrated, and is belied by the macroanalysis of crime. The perspectives, methods, and data of macrocriminology also need to be developed, however, if they are to advance our understanding of crime at the level of social systems. Emile Durkheim , Talcott Parsons , Karl Polanyi , and C. Wright Mills have contributed essential building blocks for the study of the big picture of crime. Improvements in the quality and timeliness of aggregate crime data, finally, are necessary to bolster the policy relevance of macrocriminology.     

Interpreting “Percent Black”

Abstract

Time series analysis is employed to assess the relationship between “percent Black” and violent crime in Washington D.C. over a 40-year period. Race-disaggregated violent crime arrest data are also examined. It is concluded that while there is some indication of a positive relationship between violent crime and “percent Black” over time, that relationship is not robust when disaggregated by race and crime type and may be limited to Black robbery offending. Further, it appears that “percent Black” may be serving as a proxy for other social problems. An exploration of possible correlates of racial disparity in violent arrests suggests that they are associated with a variety of factors, including social problems and their disparities.     

GENERAL ASSESSMENTS AND THRESHOLDS FOR CHRONIC OFFENDING: AN ENRICHED PARADIGM FOR EXPLAINING CRIME

General assessments refer to individuals’ overall judgment of their standing on broad dimensions that have special relevance for the explanation of crime, such as their overall bond to society or their prospects for success. These assessments are partly a function of the independent variables that are commonly considered in contemporary crime theories and quantitative research. But these standard etiological variables are far from fully determinative of general assessments because individuals differ in how they interpret, weigh, and combine their standing along these variables. The social–psychological factors that affect the subjective judgments underlying general assessments have yet to be theorized in any comprehensive, systematic manner. Nevertheless, we hypothesize that the incorporation of general assessments in models of offending will greatly enhance their explanatory power because these assessments are the most proximate, comprehensive, and personally relevant causes of crime. Moreover, we anticipate that once these assessments reach certain threshold levels, such as the view that bonds to society are severed irreparably or success is beyond reach, they result in a nonlinear jump in the frequency, seriousness, and duration of offending (i.e., chronic offending). A consideration of general assessments and their associated thresholds should therefore substantially improve efforts to explain crime.     

CRIMINAL BEWARE: A SOCIAL NORMS PERSPECTIVE ON POSTING PUBLIC WARNING SIGNS*

Recent studies have suggested that crime‐prevention strategies tend to interact with characteristics of the community in such a way that what works in one community might not work in another. In this article, we extend this finding to fear of crime and residents' perceptions of crime using a Focus Theory of Normative Conduct framework. Data are reported from three experiments that examine the impact of publicly posted Neighborhood Watch signs on perceived crime rates and worry about victimization. The studies used a virtual community tour to assess the causal impact of Neighborhood Watch sign presence and content. Across the experiments, we consistently find the potential for publicly posted Neighborhood Watch signs to produce unintended consequences such as increased fear of crime and worry about victimization. Moreover, the outcomes associated with posting the signs are influenced not only by the information printed on the sign but also by an interaction between the signs themselves and the environmental context in which they are posted.     

To protect and collect: a nationwide study of profit-motivated police crime

This study is part of a larger research project on police crime in the United States. Police crimes are those criminal offenses committed by sworn law enforcement officers who have the general powers of arrest. Profit-motivated police crime involves officers who use their authority of position to engage in crime for personal gain. This study reports the findings on 1,591 cases where a law enforcement officer was arrested for one or more profit-motivated crimes during the seven-year period 2005–2011. The profit-motivated arrest cases involved 1,396 individual officers employed by 782 state, local, special, constable, and tribal law enforcement agencies located in 531 counties and independent cities in 47 states and the District of Columbia. Our data is the first systematic study of profit-motivated police crime. The study describes the nature of this form of police misconduct in terms of several dimensions, including the characteristics of police who perpetrate these crimes, where it occurs, the specific criminal charges, and the contexts within which profit-motivated police crime is punished through police agencies and the criminal courts.