Will Erdogan's Victory Mark the Rise of Illiberal Democracy?

In 1990, right after the Berlin Wall fell, NPQ published our Spring edition, titled “The New World Disorder,” about the nationalistic chaos and up‐in‐theair sensibility of that fraught new historical moment. Nearly a quarter of a century later, the regime of globalization that had supplanted the Cold War world of blocs is itself coming apart at the seams. Even Henry Kissinger these days says “the world order is crumbling.” Will this New World Disorder 2.0 revert to a system of conflicting blocs, as during the Cold War, or will we be mature enough to save the interdependence of plural identities that is the foundation of a new global civilization? In this section our contributors offer their perspectives on what the future holds.     

Will the regulation of governmental accounting go too far?

The establishment of the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) ushered in a new era in the regulation of governmental accounting. The promotion of uniform accounting standards for all state and local governments and the adoption of more effective regulations in certain areas, such as pension reporting, may lead to lower borrowing costs for governmental units. The GASB should, however, be concerned not only with the potential benefits associated with any new regulations but also with the related costs of implementing these regulations.     

Will the Muslim Brotherhood Succeed Where Osama Failed?

Just as the Arab Spring blossomed, the al‐Qaeda‐led era of terrorism came to an end with the killing of Osama Bin Laden in his Pakistani lair by American special forces. We asked two of the most contentious experts on all things Islamic—Ayaan Hirsi Ali and Tariq Ramadan—to assess the meaning of these historic moments on the future. Amr Moussa, the leading candidate for Egypt's presidency, and Ehud Barak, Israel's defense minister, also offer their views. Two top former intelligence agents from MI6 and the CIA look at the next turn of events—the Saudi counter‐revolution.     

Is the time of suicide a random choice? A new statistical perspective

The problem of the time distribution of suicide has aroused the interest of many authors, but their findings often appear uncertain and contradictory. These inconsistencies can be partially explained by both the choice of the sample and the statistical method used for the analysis. In this study, in order to reveal expected and unexpected periodicities in the time distribution of suicides, we analyzed a small but complete and very homogeneous sample of suicides which occurred in the Mountain District of the Metauro River Valley in Italy in the period 1960-1994. A recent circular statistics technique, the "maximization of mean vector length" was used. We found no significant weekly and lunar patterns, but significant seasonal and intraseasonal cycles, with peaks in March and at the beginning of each season. The superposition of these two significant cyclic trends was also studied.