A nine-year follow-up study on the predictive validity of the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire for predicting violent and nonviolent recidivism

The effectiveness of the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) in providing estimates for predicting violent and nonviolent recidivism over a 9-year period is examined. The SAQ is a quantitative risk/need instrument consisting of 72 items that compose eight subscales. There were 657 federally sentenced Canadian male offenders who completed the SAQ prior to their release and were followed up for 9 years (108 months) at 4-month intervals. Consistent with previous predictive studies, the results presented here demonstrate that the SAQ has adequate predictive validity.     

The significance of offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism among sex offenders of various age groups

Based on a sample of 682 male sex offenders, this study investigated variables of the offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism in different age groups. The sex offenders were allocated into four age groups. For each group, those characteristics of offending behavior showing a significant bivariate correlation with sexual recidivism were extracted. Using logistic regression, we then analyzed their incremental validity above and beyond a previously developed Crime Scene Behavior Risk (CBR)-Score, which measures the risk of sexual recidivism without taking into account the offenders' age (Dahle, Biedermann, Gallasch-Nemitz, & Janka, 2010). Age-specific offending behavior variables with incremental validity were combined with the general CBR-Score into age-specific scores and examined for their predictive accuracy. We also analyzed the extent in which these age-specific scores showed incremental validity above and beyond the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999). For three of the four age groups, age-specific Crime Scene Behavior Risk-Scores could be determined which were incrementally valid above and beyond the Static-99. Predictive accuracy varied between AUC=.74 and AUC=.90 (r=.28 to r=.49) depending on age group. The results are discussed within context of recent findings on the latent dimensions of actuarial risk assessment variables.     

Beyond static and dynamic risk factors: the incremental validity of release planning for predicting sex offender recidivism

Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.     

Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the incremental validity of changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony over 30 consecutive days following parole, for predicting time to recidivism during the following year. Before release, the participants completed self-report assessment of some stable risk factors – impulsiveness and history of problematic substance use – as well as an assessment of symptoms of anxiety experienced during the weeks prior to release. Analysis of the baseline assessments showed that impulsiveness and a history of problematic substance use, but not pre-release symptoms of anxiety, were associated with recidivism during the parole year. Growth modelling using a linear mixed model was used to assess whether inmates on parole showed changes in acute dynamic risk factors during the first month following release. Individual growth model slopes and intercept were then extracted and used as covariates in a series of Cox regression analyses to test whether changes in acute dynamic risk factors could provide incremental predictive validity beyond baseline stable risk factors. Changes in five dynamic risk factors were associated with an increased risk of recidivism, of which daily drug use and daily summary score showed incremental predictive improvement beyond impulsiveness and history of problematic drug use.     

The predictive validity of criminogenic needs for male and female offenders: Comparing the relative impact of needs in predicting recidivism

Most instruments used to assess offenders' risk of recidivism were developed and validated on male samples. Use of these instruments with female offenders is, however, common practice. This use with female offenders implies the assumption that the risk of recidivism can be predicted on the basis of the same risk factors for women as for men. Yet, this implied gender-neutrality of offender risk instruments has been the topic of much debate. This study compared criminogenic needs in male and female offenders and their relevance in predicting recidivism. A large sample of male and female offenders (N = 16,239) charged with a range of index offenses was studied. Results mainly support the gender neutrality of existing offender risk and needs assessment. However, results do suggest that some criminogenic needs may indeed have a different impact on recidivism for men and women. Problems with accommodation, education and work, and relationships with friends were more strongly correlated to general recidivism in men than in women. For women, difficulties with emotional well-being had a stronger correlation with recidivism than for men. In addition, relative to all other criminogenic needs, problems with emotional well-being were more important for women than for men in predicting general as well as violent recidivism. However, because the bivariate correlation for female offenders between emotional difficulties and recidivism is weak (as it is for male offenders), the question remains whether the relative importance of emotional difficulties in predicting recidivism in women actually has clinical relevance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

The Static-99R predicts sexual and violent recidivism for individuals with low intellectual functioning*

A current debate is whether actuarial risk assessment tools predict sexual recidivism in sexual offenders with intellectual disabilities (SOIDs). Since intellectual functioning exists on a spectrum, the present study examined the predictive validity of the Static-99R across the range of intellectual functioning. The sample was comprised of 454 adult sexual offenders assessed at an outpatient clinic and followed for an average of 10 years. Offenders in the extremely low/borderline group had higher scores on the Static-99R than other offenders, largely due to their score on the detachment subscale of the Static-99R, but did not have significantly higher recidivism rates. Calibration analyses suggested that the expected and observed recidivism rates did not differ significantly. Intellectual functioning did not add incremental validity to the Static-99R. Further, there was no interaction between intellectual functioning and actuarial risk score. The results suggested that the Static-99R can be used across the range of intellectual functioning, albeit somewhat more cautiously for those at the lowest and highest end of the intellectual functioning distribution.     

The myth of offenders' deception on self-report measure predicting recidivism: example from the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ)

Two studies were conducted to investigate the vulnerability of the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) to deception and self-presentation biases. The SAQ is a self-report measure used to predict recidivism and guide institutional and program assignments. In the first study, comparisons were made between 429 volunteer offenders who completed the SAQ for research purposes and 75 offenders who completed the SAQ as a part of the psychological assessments process required for consideration for early release. In the second study, 106 participants over two sessions completed the SAQ and the Balanced Inventory of Desirable Responding. Participants completed both measures under two separate sets of instructions: (a) Answers would be used for research purposes, and (b) answers would be used for making decisions about their release to the community. Results from both studies reaffirmed previous findings that the SAQ is not vulnerable to deception, lying, and self-presentation biases.     

Violent recidivism in criminal psychopaths

The predictive validity of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) was compared with 3 actuarial risk scales in a sample of 81 offenders followed for a maximum of 67 months (average of 30 months). The recommittal or general recidivism rate for the entire sample was 57% (40% for nonpsychopaths, 51.2% for a mixed group, and 85% for psychopaths). The violent reoffense rate was 10% for the sample (nonpsychopaths 0%, mixed 7.3%, psychopaths 25%). All instruments were significantly correlated with general recidivism; however, the PCL-R was the best predictor of violent recidivism. Compared to the actuarial scales, the PCL-R had a higher predictive efficiency (Relative Improvement Over Chance (RIOC)) and yielded fewer decision errors. Most importantly, Factor 1 was a better predictor of violent recidivism than Factor 2, suggesting that the trait construct of psychopathy makes a unique contribution to the prediction of violent recidivism.     

Assessing the impact of imprisonment on recidivism

Objectives  

There is debate about the extent to which imprisonment deters reoffending. Further, while there is a large literature on the effects of imprisonment, methodologically sound and rigorous studies are the exception due to problematic sample characteristics and study designs. This paper assesses the effect of imprisonment on reoffending relative to a prison diversion program, Community Control, for over 79,000 felons sentenced to state prison and 65,000 offenders sentenced to Community Control between 1994 and 2002 in Florida.     

Gender differences in the effects of prison on recidivism

Purpose

This study examines gender differences in the effectiveness of prison in reducing recidivism.

Methods

Using data on released male and female prisoners, we apply a propensity score matching methodology to compare the effects of prison on recidivism versus three counterfactual conditions—jail, intensive probation, and probation.

Results

The analyses indicated that a prison term, as compared to placement on intensive probation or traditional probation, is associated with a greater likelihood of property and drug recidivism. There was little evidence that recidivism was greater when compared to jail, that prison increased the likelihood of violent or other recidivism, or that the criminogenic effect of prison is appreciably greater for females or males.

Conclusions

The findings do not support arguments that prison is an effective alternative to non-incarcerative punishments or that it exerts a differential effect on females or males. Further research is needed on what features of the prison experience contribute to the observed effects.     

Criminal recidivism in sexual homicide perpetrators

Forensic psychiatric reports on 166 sexual homicide perpetrators in Germany were retrospectively analyzed for criminal risk factors. Follow-up information about release and reconvictions from federal criminal records was available for 139 offenders; 90 (64.7%) had been released. The estimated recidivism rate (Kaplan-Meier analyses) for 20 years at risk was 23.1% for sexual and 18.3% for nonsexual violent reoffences. Three men (3.3%) were reconvicted for attempted or completed homicide. Only young age at the time of sexual homicide resulted in higher sexual recidivism, whereas increased nonsexual violent recidivism was related to previous sexual and nonsexual delinquency, psychopathic symptoms, and higher scores in risk assessment instruments. Increased recidivism with any violent reoffence was associated with age-related factors: young age at first sexual offence, at homicide, and at release and duration of detention. The impacts of the results for risk assessment, relapse prevention, and supervision are discussed.     

A comparison of recidivism measures

Three categories-self-reported, F.B.I., and Florida Division of Corrections-of measures designed to tap recidivism are compared. When comparisons are made using different baseline measures, it is observed that variation is greatest between rather than within categories. Further, when two log-linear regressions are fitted where only the recidivism measures are different, the results are radically different. The findings demonstrate that all recidivism measures are not necessarily equally valid or reliable and that the use of different measures can produce discrepant findings.     

The Self-Appraisal Questionnaire: a self-report measure for predicting recidivism versus clinician-administered measures: a 5-year follow-up study

In this study, the effectiveness of the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ), a self-report measure for predicting release outcome, is examined as compared to clinician-administered and widely used risk prediction measures, over a 5-year period. The SAQ was administered along with four similar, but clinician-administered, measures to 91 federally sentenced Canadian male offenders prior to their release to the community. Follow-up data were collected for a 60-month period. Outcome criteria measures were violent and general recidivism. Results indicated that the SAQ is at least as effective as the four other measures in predicting postrelease outcome. The advantages of using the SAQ as a self-report measure as opposed to clinician-administered measures are discussed.     

Violent recidivism and chronicity in the 1958 Philadelphia cohort

In the present study the relationship between chronicity and violent recidivism is analyzed using longitudinal data from the 1958 Philadelphia cohort. The data reaffirm prior research findings that a small cadre of offenders commits the majority of crimes which involve serious harm to the community, yet it was found that the violent offenders accounted for a large share of the more serious index offenses. In addition, among violent delinquents there is a greater proportion of chronic offenders than among nonviolent delinquents. Chronic offenders were more likely than nonchronic offenders to repeat a violent offense. Violent recidivists also committed a large proportion of nonviolent index offenses. One might imply from the results of this study that a policy of selective incapacitation of high-rate offenders would substantially reduce the amount of violent crime as well as nonviolent crime.     

Juvenile recidivism and length of stay

Official data maintained by the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice of 16,779 juveniles released from commitment programs to the community or aftercare between July 1, 1998 and June 30, 2000 were examined in this study. No consistent relationship between length of confinement and recidivism was found. The effects of length of stay were mediated based on the risk level of the commitment facility and gender. The length of confinement was only significant for juveniles released from high-risk facilities and male offenders. More research must be conducted to further examine the positive and negative impact of confinement on juvenile re-offending. Future research must include in its analysis the effect of program quality and treatment. Both factors may significantly mediate the relationship between confinement and recidivism.