How Politicians Discount the Opinions of Constituents with Whom They Disagree

We argue that politicians systematically discount the opinions of constituents with whom they disagree and that this “disagreement discounting” is a contributing factor to ideological incongruence. A pair of survey experiments where state and local politicians are the subjects of interest show that public officials rationalize this behavior by assuming that constituents with opposing views are less informed about the issue. This finding applies both to well‐established issues that divide the parties as well as to nonpartisan ones. Further, it cannot be explained by politicians’ desires to favor the opinions of either copartisans or likely voters. A third survey experiment using a sample of voters shows that the bias is exacerbated by an activity central to representative governance—taking and explaining one's policy positions. This suggests that the job of being a representative exacerbates this bias.     

全面认识和正确把握"政治存在"是政治文明建设的时代需要

从政治哲学理性层面提出"政治存在"基本范畴,认为政治存在与政治意识相对而言,是标志人类政治生活物质方面和物质过程的总和.政治存在具有自身的三维结构,政治主体、政治活动和政治关系是政治存在的三大维度.从动态的角度来看,政治主体多元化、政治活动国际化和政治关系民族化,是政治存在发展的基本规律.     

Whom do you trust? An analysis of executive and congressional economic forecasts

Economic forecasts play an increasing role in U.S. budgetary and fiscal policies. This paper analyzes the accuracy and bias of economic forecasts prepared by the Executive Branch and Congress. Short-run forecasts by the Executive Branch for the forthcoming year do not appear biased. They are as accurate as private forecasts and the forecasts of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO); they are not sensitive to political factors such as the size of the deficit. At the same time, the accuracy of Executive branch's short-run economic forecasts has not improved over the period from 1962 to 1984, and the forecasts themselves can be well approximated by simple, single-equation models that use a small number of variables. In contrast to short-run forecasts, long-run economic forecasts of both the Executive branch and CBO are consistently optimistic. The degree of optimism increases with the length of the forecasting horizon and the degree of fiscal pressure the year in which they are issued. The Reagan Administration's long-run forecasts, while typically optimistic, have not been rosier than those issued under previous administrations.     

Needs,welfare and the limits of associationalism

This paper presents a critical account of current associationalist proposals for welfare reform. It argues that contrary to the associationalists' own case, the institutional structure suggested by associationalism would not better provide for the needs of welfare recipients. After a detailed exposition of the fundamental claims of proponents of associational welfare, the paper challenger two of the key normative judgements that underlie the associational project. First, it criticizes the associationalist tendency to emphasize unregulated choice in welfare provision, arguing that such a settlement would ignore the important disinction between ‘needs’ and ‘preferences’. Second, it rejects the associationalists' acceptance of significant inequalities in welfare provision, suggesting that such inequlities would, almost by conceptual definition, leave many recipients' needs unfulfilled. The paper concludes by indicating that any proposed welfare reform intended to enhance provision for needs should be located within the current statist tradition.     

The Risks and Needs of the Returning Prisoner Population

There is a growing interest in the threat posed by the increase in the number of prisoners released from prison each year. Some have argued that unless new services and programs are funded, the increasing waves of released prisoners will pose a major threat to public safety in general. This paper reexamines these and other issues and finds that a significant portion of released prisoners pose little if any threat to public safety and that the current parole supervision system often serves to increase rather than reduce recidivism. While released prisoners have significant social, economic, residential, and family needs, they are not sufficient to restrict their release from prison.     

浅谈领导干部任前公示制

领导干部任前公示制是我国刚刚实行的干部选拔任用制度,它在某种程度上体现了公开、公平、透明、择优的干部选任原则,但是由于实施时间尚短,难免存在一些欠缺,如公示内容不够丰富,下情上达的途径不够畅通等等,这些问题都有待在实践中不断摸索着解决。要不断充实任前公示的内容,更好地调动群众参与的热情和积极性,使任前公示制真正达到选贤任能的初衷。     

Understanding and influencing the policy process

This essay translates some of the underlying logic of existing research of policy processes into a set of strategies for shaping policy agendas and influencing policy development and change. The argument builds from a synthesized model of the individual and a simplified depiction of the political system. Three overarching strategies are introduced that operate at the policy subsystem level: developing deep knowledge; building networks; and participating for extended periods of time. The essay then considers how a democratic ethic can inform these strategies. Ultimately, the success or failure of influencing the policy process is a matter of odds, but these odds could be changed favorably if individuals employ the three strategies consistently over time. The conclusion contextualizes the arguments and interprets the strategies offered as a meta-theoretical argument of political influence.     

关于失地农民权益保护的对策探讨

我国的社会主义现代化建设正在进入工业化、城市化的历史时期,对土地需求量的急剧上升引发了新一轮“圈地运动”。圈地狂潮直接导致许多农民失去土地,失去生存权、发展权及劳动的权利,丧失了诸多的经济利益。为此,必须从管理体制以及法律的角度探寻失地农民权益保护的有效途径。     

Understanding the development of fundamentalism

We use economic theory to examine the intensity of fundamentalist sects in which leaders work to enhance their followers’ observance level. We model three stylized situations under which fundamentalist groups function, examining the intensity of observance in each. We find that, under reasonable conditions, rivalry among fundamentalists makes them more extreme.     

Disparities in the Spending Needs of Highland Municipalities

A certain rough consensus holds that highland municipalities have higher spending needs than others, because of the particularly adverse conditions in which they provide essential public services. However, there is no empirical evidence to support this assertion. This study examines whether any relevant differences actually exist in the spending policies of highland and lowland municipalities. To this end, we make logarithmic estimations of per capita municipal spending in order to determine whether the indicators selected, which are based on local government powers, adequately reflect spending needs. Our results point to the special circumstances of highland districts as a key explanatory factor for higher municipal spending, along with demographic factors, locational population patterns, economic activity, subsidies, and local fiscal capacity.     

隐喻的含义与解读——基于戴维森隐喻理论的考察

本文对戴维森关于隐喻的含义和理解的思想进行了探讨。戴维森否认有所谓的隐喻意义这种东西。他认为,隐喻是人们富有想象地使用语词和语句的产物;隐喻与普通言说的区别在于使用而非意义;理解一个隐喻就是在做出一个隐喻,对隐喻的解释如同对梦的解析一样,它既是对梦者一方的反映,也在同样程度上是对解释者一方的反映。     

Those who Wear the Crown Wield the Knife: the Brutality of Recent Takeover Reshuffles

Recent ‘takeover’ Prime Ministers have tended to conduct relatively brutal Cabinet reshuffles immediately after taking office. Liz Truss dismissed and moved large numbers of ministers after becoming Prime Minister in September 2022, and Rishi Sunak did the same after succeeding Truss in October 2022. This article locates the tendency towards brutalism in the broader context of British Cabinet reshuffles. It compares the scale of takeover reshuffles with other types of reshuffles and demonstrates how incoming takeover Prime Ministers in the twenty-first century have reconstructed their Cabinets more extensively than their predecessors. The article argues that the use of all-member ballots in party leadership elections has been a key driver of brutalism, and it further identifies several reasons why future Prime Ministers might want to resist the tendency.     

论民警培训需求分析的运行机制建设

民警培训需求分析是生成民警培训计划的前提和基础,它对实现培训价值和教育训练民主,提高民警培训质量具有重要意义。民警培训包括干部培训和警察职业教育活动,开展培训需求分析应兼顾公安队伍建设、公安机关履职能力提升和民警个人职业发展的需要,从需求分析目标、组织机构、分析方法、反馈机制等方面探索需求分析的运行机制,实现需求分析的常态化、规范化。     

What They Do Does Matter: Incumbent Resource Allocations and the Individual House Vote

It is reasonable to presume that House incumbents through their behaviors and resource allocations (e.g., trips home, staff, etc.) are responsible for their electoral success. The empirical case for the resource allocation hypothesis, however, rests primarily upon the support of a few experimental design studies. The remainder of the evidence from 25 years of tests of this hypothesis, at the district and individual-levels, is littered with null findings. Scholars suggest two methodological obstructions hinder alternative hypothesis findings: simultaneity bias (in district and individual-level studies), and restricted variance on the allocation measures (in individual-level studies). In this investigation I apply methodological remedies for these hindrances-nonrecursive analyses on a pooled (1960–1976) NES elections data set. I uncover the strongest evidence yet that incumbents benefit electorally from their resource allocations (here: bills sponsored and cosponsored, staff, and district offices). In addition to this main result, I also discuss the influence generational replacement has on resource allocations and the vote.

我国国有企业领导制度亟待改革

改革开放 2 0年来 ,伴随着经济体制改革的不断深化 ,我国企业领导制度的改革也在不断深化 ,大体经历了四个阶段。第一个阶段是从 1978年 12月至1987年 10月 ,也就是从党的十一届三中全会召开到党的十三大召开之前 ,主要是向企业下放包括人事权在内的各种管理权利 ,尊重企业自主权 ;第二阶段是从 1987年 10月至 1992年 10月 ,也就是党的十三大召开到党的十四大召开之前 ,主要是在企业推行以承包为主的各种形式的责任制 ,进一步扩大企业自主生产经营权 ;第三阶段是从 1992年 10月至 1997年 9月 ,也就是从党的十四大召开到党的十五大召开之前 ,…