The impact of human-technology cooperation and distributed cognition in forensic science: biasing effects of AFIS contextual information on human experts

Experts play a critical role in forensic decision making, even when cognition is offloaded and distributed between human and machine. In this paper, we investigated the impact of using Automated Fingerprint Identification Systems (AFIS) on human decision makers. We provided 3680 AFIS lists (a total of 55,200 comparisons) to 23 latent fingerprint examiners as part of their normal casework. We manipulated the position of the matching print in the AFIS list. The data showed that latent fingerprint examiners were affected by the position of the matching print in terms of false exclusions and false inconclusives. Furthermore, the data showed that false identification errors were more likely at the top of the list and that such errors occurred even when the correct match was present further down the list. These effects need to be studied and considered carefully, so as to optimize human decision making when using technologies such as AFIS.     

Meta-analytically quantifying the reliability and biasability of forensic experts

Abstract:  In this paper we employ meta-analytic procedures and estimate effect sizes indexing the degree of reliability and biasability of forensic experts. The data are based on within-expert comparisons, whereby the same expert unknowingly makes judgments on the same data at different times. This allows us to take robust measurements and conduct analyses that compare variances within the same experts, and thus to carefully quantify the degree of consistency and objectivity that underlie expert performance and decision making. To achieve consistency, experts must be reliable, at least in the very basic sense that an expert makes the same decision when the same data are presented in the same circumstances, and thus be consistent with themselves. To achieve objectivity, experts must focus only on the data and ignore irrelevant information, and thus be unbiasable by extraneous context. The analyses show that experts are not totally reliable nor are they unbiasable. These findings are based on fingerprint experts decision making, but because this domain is so well established, they apply equally well (if not more) to all other less established forensic domains.     

Understanding juror perceptions of forensic evidence: investigating the impact of case context on perceptions of forensic evidence strength

The most widely accepted model of juror decision making acknowledges the importance of both the case-specific information presented in the courtroom, as well as the prior general knowledge and beliefs held by each juror. The studies presented in this paper investigated whether mock jurors could differentiate between evidence of varying strengths in the absence of case information and then followed on to determine the influence that case context (and therefore the story model) has on judgments made about the strength of forensic DNA evidence. The results illustrated that mock jurors correctly identified various strengths of evidence when it was not presented with case information; however, the perceived strength of evidence was significantly inflated when presented in the context of a criminal case, particularly when the evidence was of a weak or ambiguous standard. These findings are discussed in relation to the story model, and the potential implications for real juries.     

What do forensic analysts consider relevant to their decision making?

In response to research demonstrating that irrelevant contextual information can bias forensic science analyses, authorities have increasingly urged laboratories to limit analysts' access to irrelevant and potentially biasing information (Dror and Cole (2010) [3]; National Academy of Sciences (2009) [18]; President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) [22]; UK Forensic Science Regulator (2015) [26]). However, a great challenge in implementing this reform is determining which information is task-relevant and which is task-irrelevant. In the current study, we surveyed 183 forensic analysts to examine what they consider relevant versus irrelevant in their forensic analyses. Results revealed that analysts generally do not regard information regarding the suspect or victim as essential to their analytic tasks. However, there was significant variability among analysts within and between disciplines. Findings suggest that forensic science disciplines need to agree on what they regard as task-relevant before context management procedures can be properly implemented. The lack of consensus about what is relevant information not only leaves room for biasing information, but also reveals foundational gaps in what analysts consider crucial in forensic decision making.     

Palynology: its position in the field of forensic science

Here we examine the current state of palynology in the field of forensic science. Forensic palynology is discussed with reference to other forensic disciplines to help understand what is required for its progress. Emerging developments are also discussed. Palynomorphs potentially deliver excellent trace evidence, fulfilling the requirements relating to the transfer, persistence, and detection of such evidence. Palynological evidence can provide very powerful investigative and associative evidence. Despite this, the application of palynology to forensic science has had mixed success. There are many anecdotal stories where pollen evidence has had spectacular successes. But it is extremely underutilized in most countries because it is labor-intensive and requires considerable expertise and experience, there is a lack of control over sample collection and inadequate resourcing and funding, and its crime-solving power is not well known. Palynology has been applied to forensic problems in an unstructured way, resulting in a lack of formalized discussion of the underlying principles. As there is renewed questioning of the acceptability of most evidence types in the current legal environment, there is a need for the establishment of palynological evidence through validation-type studies and experimentation, and the implementation of independent proficiency testing.     

Value of DNA tests: a decision perspective

ABSTRACT: Before a Court of Law testifying in DNA‐evidence cases, scientists are often challenged with the idea that the more markers (loci) the better, i.e., why does the scientist not use 16 or more markers? This paper introduces a new perspective, decision analysis, to deal with the problem of the number of markers to type in a criminal context. The decision‐making process, which plays a key role in the routine work of a forensic scientist, consists of the rational choice, given personal objectives, between two or more possible outcomes when the consequences of the choice are uncertain. Simulated results support the hypothesis that analytical added value does not increase with the number of markers.     

Two items of evidence, no putative source: an inference problem in forensic intelligence

Intelligence analysts commonly associate cases on the basis of similarities found in compared characteristics of scientific evidence. The present paper studies some of the inferential difficulties associated with such operations. An analysis is proposed that breaks down the reasoning process into inference to common source, and inference to case linkage. The former requires an approach to the difficulty associated with evaluating the similarities of items of evidence from different cases with no putative source being available. The latter requires consideration to be given to the relevance of evidence. Throughout the paper, probability theory is used to describe the nature of the proposed inferences. Graphical models are also introduced with the aim of providing further insight into the dependence and independence relationships assumed to hold among the various propositions considered. Notions from decision theory are used to discuss ways in which intelligence analysts may assist investigators in deciding whether or not cases should be considered as linked.     

拳击致牙齿脱落与牙周病关系的法医学研究

目的 探讨拳击致牙齿脱落与牙周病关系的法医临床学问题,研究此类损伤的特点,力求对此类损伤的法医学评定进行量化。方法 将65例牙周病牙齿拳击伤致牙齿脱落的案例编为研究组,将65例正常牙齿拳击伤致牙齿脱落的案例编为对照组,运用统计学卡方检验对相关数据进行分析和研究。结果 牙周病组与正常组相比,在年龄、口腔软组织损伤、脱落牙齿种类及个数、牙齿折断及牙槽突骨折存在显著性差异;所受创伤强度与损伤程度的评定存在负相关。结论 牙周病牙齿外伤致牙齿脱落的损伤程度评定存在误区,在对此类损伤程度评定时运用外伤参与度是十分必要的。     

The development and application of a diatom-based quantitative reconstruction technique in forensic science

Diatoms are a group of unicellular algae that have been recorded and classified for over 200 years and have been used in a range of applications in forensic science. We have developed a quantitative diatom-based reconstruction technique to confirm drowning as a cause of death and localize the site of drowning in two recent, high-profile, case studies. In both case studies we collected diatom samples from the local and/or regional area to act as a control in the examination of diatom assemblages associated with lungs and clothing. In Case Study 1 the modern analog technique suggested that all lung and clothing samples have statistically significant similarities to control samples from shallow water habitats. In Case Study 2, the analog matching suggested that the majority of lung samples show a statistically significant relationship to samples from a pond, indicating that this was the drowning medium.     

Postmortem vitreous Beta-hydroxybutyrate: interpretation in a forensic setting*

Abstract: Vitreous beta‐hydroxybutyrate (BHB) was retrospectively analyzed in 1795 forensic cases using the Pointe Scientific method. Comparison of vitreous BHB with vitreous glucose in 1781 of the cases showed moderately good correlation r = 0.731. Comparison with blood alcohol levels in 1561 of the cases showed no correlation r = ?0.053. Vitreous BHB was a marker of diabetic ketoacidosis when above 6.0 mM with a vitreous glucose over 200 mg/dL. It was an indicator (>50%) for alcoholic ketoacidosis when above 6.0 mM with a vitreous glucose below 200 mg/dL. Recommendations for interpretation of vitreous BHB: <0.4 mM normal; 0.41–1.2 mM slightly elevated, rarely (<1%) of concern; 1.21–2.0 mM moderately elevated, less rarely (2.5%) of concern; 2.01–6.0 mM significantly elevated, frequently of concern (12–48%); >6.0 mM usually (100% in this study) indicated life‐threatening conditions. Vitreous BHB was helpful evaluating cases with ketogenic conditions, especially diabetes and alcoholism.     

Development of a real-time method to detect DNA degradation in forensic samples

Abstract: Knowledge of the degradation state of evidentiary DNA samples would allow selection of the appropriate analysis method (standard short tandem repeats [STRs] vs. mini STRs vs. mtDNA). This article describes the development of a Plexor® technology/real‐time PCR DNA degradation detection assay, which uses a common forward primer and two reverse primers (different fluorophores) to generate two Alu amplicons (63 and 246 bp). This very sensitive assay was optimized for reaction volume, cycle number, anneal/extend time, and temperature. Using DNA samples degraded with DNaseI, the ratio of the concentration of the short amplicon to the concentration of the long amplicon (degradation ratio) was increased versus time of degradation. Experiments were performed on a variety of environmentally degraded samples (age, sunlight, heat) and with seven commonly encountered forensic inhibitors. The degradation ratio was found to predict the observed loss of larger STR loci seen in the analysis of comprised samples.     

Age-related changes in pulp cavity of incisors as a determinant for forensic age identification

To find a simple and convenient method for age identification upon age-related pulp cavity narrowing, the mesiodistal diameters of the cervical pulp chamber, the middle and terminal parts of the root canal of the pulp cavity of 620 incisors were measured on radiographs taken in situ in 80 Chinese aged from 15 to 80. It was shown that the three mesiodistal diameters significantly decreased in a negative linear relationship with age (-0.4233 ≤ r ≥ -0.8465) in all incisors, but the narrowing velocity of the cervical pulp chamber and the middle part of the root canal in the maxillary incisors (b = -0.02 mm) was faster than that in the mandibular incisors (b = -0.01 mm). Accordingly, a mathematical model describing the ages as a function of any one of the three mesiodistal diameters of the pulp cavity was deduced, which would be useful for age identification in forensic medicine or archaeology.     

A framework for estimating probability of a match in forensic bite mark identification

In forensic dentistry, a human expert typically does the comparison and identification based on bite marks. Unlike DNA analysis, however, there is no quantitative basis with which to assign a probability for this given match. This paper proposes a framework for empirically estimating the probability of such a bite mark match and reports on initial experimental results. The methodology involved collection of dental population data (3D dental casts and bite mark images), image analysis for quantitatively measuring the degree of match (based on chamfer distance), and performing a logistic regression analysis using the collected population data to estimate the probability of match from the calculated degree of match. The model correctly predicted 35 of the 42 matches and 585 of the 588 mismatches. The method also has potential for use in other forensic applications in which the assignment of quantitative probabilities is important.     

Skeletal identification by radiographic comparison: blind tests of a morphoscopic method using antemortem chest radiographs

This study investigated the value of antemortem (AM) and postmortem (PM) radiographs of the claviculae and C3-T4 vertebrae to identify skeletons of missing U.S. soldiers from past military operations. In total, 12 field-recovered skeletons and AM chest radiographs of 1460 individuals were used. For each skeleton, examiners analyzed an array of AM chest radiographs (up to 1000 individuals) and attempted to identify the correct PM/AM radiographic match. When examiners were able to compare all images within a single test, only true-positive identifications were made. When AM radiographs were presented one-at-a-time, in sequential order, and without examiners having knowledge of array size, erroneous identifications resulted but they were almost exclusively made by untrained examiners (accuracy = 35% vs. 90% for trained examiners). This study demonstrates the value of chest radiographs for the identification of disarticulated and even eroded skeletons, but only when methods are wielded by trained examiners.     

Forensic identification science evidence since Daubert: Part II--judicial reasoning in decisions to exclude forensic identification evidence on grounds of reliability

Many studies regarding the legal status of forensic science have relied on the U.S. Supreme Court's mandate in Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals Inc., and its progeny in order to make subsequent recommendations or rebuttals. This paper focuses on a more pragmatic approach to analyzing forensic science's immediate deficiencies by considering a qualitative analysis of actual judicial reasoning where forensic identification evidence has been excluded on reliability grounds since the Daubert precedent. Reliance on general acceptance is becoming insufficient as proof of the admissibility of forensic evidence. The citation of unfounded statistics, error rates and certainties, a failure to document the analytical process or follow standardized procedures, and the existence of observe bias represent some of the concerns that have lead to the exclusion or limitation of forensic identification evidence. Analysis of these reasons may serve to refocus forensic practitioners' testimony, resources, and research toward rectifying shortfalls in these areas.     

Taphonomy of child-sized remains: a study of scattering and scavenging in Virginia, USA

Child-sized pig carcasses (Sus scrofa) were placed in surface deposit and buried scenarios in a wooded area of Virginia from May 1998 through December 2000, to examine the taphonomic effects of decompositional changes, predator scavenging, and the extent of remains scattering. Changes were observed through on-site examination, charting of remains, and recorded video imaging. Analysis of data revealed that utilization of corpses as food sources by vertebrates was dependent upon invertebrate colonization. Vertebrates avoided feeding on the corpses while invertebrate colonization was active, and would feed before invertebrates successfully colonized a corpse, or would wait until the invertebrate populations migrated away from the corpse. Among vertebrates, there was no apparent succession order for the animals utilizing the remains as a food source. Different vertebrates would feed at different times based upon diurnal or nocturnal predilection. Analysis noted an accidental cooperative relationship between the invertebrates and vertebrates scavenging on the corpses. Certain vertebrates gained access to the internal tissues by utilizing openings in the corpses caused by invertebrate and other vertebrate scavenging. Alternately, carrion-frequenting insects were afforded access to previously inaccessible colonization sites as a result of scavenging vertebrate activities.     

Immunohistochemical staining as a potential method for the identification of vaginal epithelial cells in forensic casework

There is currently no accurate method to identify vaginal epithelial cells uniquely. This study aimed to use a cell extraction procedure compatible with routine forensic sampling methods, and to investigate the expression of cytokeratin (CK), estrogen receptor-alpha (ERalpha), and phosphodiesterase 5 (PDE5) in order to distinguish between skin, buccal, vaginal, and external penile epithelial cells. Seminal fluid samples were also examined. Epithelial cell samples were fixed in formalin, embedded in agarose, and processed using histological methods. Antigen-antibody reactions were detected using the DAKO Envision+ detection system. CK was present in all cells from all five sources confirming the origin of cells as epithelial. Both ERalpha and PDE5 positively labeled vaginal, buccal, and skin epithelial cells. Although an antigen unique to vaginal epithelial cells was not identified, we have described a cell extraction procedure for use in the immunohistochemical detection of a wide range of antigens, an approach compatible with forensic diagnostics.