Turning down the heat: Influences on conflict management in enduring rivalries

Enduring rivalries represent the most difficult challenges for policy makers seeking to promote international peace and security. Once in place, enduring rivalries account for a disproportionate number of crises, militarized disputes, as well as wars, and include conflicts that are more likely to escalate than those falling in other conflict contexts. Unfortunately, we know very little about conflict management in enduring rivalries from either a theoretical or policy perspective. This study seeks to account for why some rivalries are successfully managed while others persist at high and unabated levels of conflict In addressing these concerns, we explore 35 enduring rivalries over the period 1945–1992. We find that although enduring rivalries are quite resistant to influences that produce changes in their dynamics, both endogenous and contextual influences can exercise a significant impact upon the prospects for conflict management between enduring rivals.     

Credibility and Strategy in International Mediation

We study mediation in international conflict as a process of strategic interaction among the two disputants and the (would-be) mediator. We develop a rational model that examines the choice, process, and outcome of mediation. We start with a conflict game of incomplete information played by rational players that examines the conditions under which disputants and would-be mediators would consider mediation a preferred strategy. The mediation game that follows models the mediator's choice of mediation strategy and the possible responses of the disputants offers. Finally, we explore the conditions under which a mediated solution emerges and the conditions under which mediation fails.

The credibility of the mediator—defined as the extent to which disputants believe the mediator's statements, threats, or promises and her ability to deliver the promised agreement—emerges as a key factor that drives the model. Each disputant has an assessment of the mediator's credibility. Broadly speaking, the more credible the mediator is perceived by the disputant, the more accepting the disputant will be of her offers. Yet, the mediator does not know how credible she is in the view of the disputants. This uncertainty affects the mediator's decision to intervene and her choice of strategies. We derive testable propositions from this model and test them on a dataset consisting of mediation efforts in international conflicts over the years 1945–1995. The findings generally support the propositions derived from the model, and we explore the theoretical and empirical implications of these findings.     

Incentives for Talking: Accepting Mediation in International and Civil Wars

This paper examines the conditions under which warring parties will accept an outside party's offer to mediate. Specifically, we explore variation in the incentives for accepting third-party offers in interstate conflicts as compared to civil wars. We argue that since mediation in civil wars transfers legitimacy to the non-state actor and can generate a precedent of exceptions to the norm of sovereignty, the political cost associated with accepting international mediation will be substantially higher in civil wars compared to international conflicts. States should therefore only accept mediation in the most serious disputes, or when the costs of legitimizing an opponent are outweighed by the benefits of conflict resolution. Building on this theoretical reasoning, the paper analyzes the implications of differences in incentive structures between inter- and intrastate conflicts for offer and acceptance of mediation. We find an empirical discrepancy between interstate and civil wars in regard to demand-side (acceptance) of mediation, and to a somewhat lesser extent the supply-side (offer) of international mediation. In line with our argument, we find that the historical ties between the potential intermediary and at least one of the disputants play different roles in regard to acceptance of mediation in interstate compared to civil wars. This is important to take into consideration in the emerging debate on mediation bias.     

General Deterrence and International Conflict: Testing Perfect Deterrence Theory

Since general deterrence necessarily precedes immediate deterrence, the analysis of general deterrence is more fundamental to an understanding of international conflict than is an analysis of immediate deterrence. Nonetheless, despite a few exceptions, the quantitative literature has ignored the subject of general deterrence, focusing almost exclusively on situations of immediate deterrence. My purpose in this essay is to fill this evidentiary gap by subjecting a recently developed theory of general deterrence—Perfect Deterrence Theory—to a systematic test by examining general deterrence from 1816–2000. The results indicate that the predictions of perfect deterrence theory are strongly supported by the empirical record.     

Deconstructing Mediation: A Case Study of the Cod Wars

In this study, I explore the mediation techniques used by an international organization (IO) to settle an international crisis. Specifically, I have focused on the use of formal and informal techniques with a case study of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) mediation during the Cod Wars between Iceland and the United Kingdom. My analysis indicates that a combination of both formal and informal mediation techniques was instrumental in resolving the Cod Wars conflict. Further research would clarify whether this finding can be generalized to other cases of NATO mediation and interventions of third parties in addition to NATO.     

Peace amidst development: 1 a conceptual agenda for conflict and peace research

In recent years, the focus of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency/Cybernetics Technology Office (DARPA/CTO) has become increasingly applied in nature. Concurrently, an explicit concern with coordinating and integrating research and analysis has pervaded the DARPA/CTO milieu. These emphases mirror trends in certain segments of political science; both policy‐relevance and cumulativeness have emerged as prominent themes in disciplinary communication and research evaluation processes.¹     

Beyond the Thomas–Kilmann Model: Into Extreme Conflict

This article discusses an extension to the Thomas–Kilmann conflict mode instrument (Thomas and Kilmann 1977) designed specifically for conflict situations in which strong negative emotional relationships are at play. The Thomas–Kilmann (TK) model is widely used to help participants (disputants and mediators) identify how two basic conflict characteristics interact to influence how stakeholders shape their actions with regard to their interests. Essentially the TK Model is built on the premise that the two salient conflict variables are the relative importance of the relationships at hand and the substantive issues being discussed. These variables are illustrated with a simple matrix that shows how each party will interact with the other based on the relative importance it places on these variables. Graphically illustrating where the behaviors fall on the matrix can explicate parties' behaviors to add a new perspective that may change the dynamic of the conflict. But the TK Model does not address scenarios in which individuals have very negative or destructive relationships, and sabotage, blocking, and exclusion are behavioral norms. Hence, we developed the Baumoel–Trippe (BT) Extension to the TK Model to address the highly negative and often identity‐based conflicts that are often found in the world of family business. Accordingly, the BT Extension to the TK Model explores conflicts in which the relationships are not merely unimportant or uncooperative, but where they become negative to downright vengeful. There is so much at stake for family business stakeholders that the family relationships may become so adversarial that the very business and family harmony all parties value are at risk. With our extension of the TK Model, we seek to provide insight into how decisions might be made when stakeholders are in highly negative, conflictual relationships.     

Psychological Barriers to Resolving Intergroup Conflict: An Extensive Review and Consolidation of the Literature

This article reviews over sixty years of research on psychological barriers to intergroup conflict resolution and finds that scholars have identified eighty nominally different barriers that create or exacerbate intergroup conflict. In order to create a tractable list that would be more helpful to future scholars and practitioners, we consolidate this vast literature (e.g., by eliminating substantive and conceptual redundancies) to produce a list of twenty‐six “unique” psychological barriers. We further organize this inventory of barriers with a framework that distinguishes between “cognitive,” “affective,” and “motivated” psychological barriers. To better understand the literature ecosystem of research on psychological barriers, we employ a data visualization tool to illustrate the extent to which each of the twenty‐six unique barriers has been studied conjointly with every other barrier in the articles we reviewed. We then shift our attention to the work of scholars who have attempted, experimentally, to attenuate psychological barriers in negotiation and conflict settings, and identify five primary methods for doing so. Finally, we discuss the implications of our review for future work in this field.     

Managing conflict in north-west Kenya: the siege of Loregon and its aftermath

Conflict management in the context of ethnic boundaries and a history of inter-ethnic violence remains a challenge in a range of socio-economic contexts. Conflict management in remote rural areas within developing states where state presence and capacity is relatively weak amidst a background of prolonged and ongoing inter-ethnic violence is particularly challenging. This article examines a case of successful bottom-up efforts to manage conflict at the micro level in northern Kenya. Focusing on the so-called siege of Loregon and its aftermath, this case study describes dynamics on one part of the ‘border’ between Turkana and Pokot ethnic groups, examining the causes and consequences of this violent episode, with a particular focus on recent successes at the local level in managing conflict and as a consequence in reducing the likelihood of future violence in a particular locality, despite ongoing violence in other parts of the interface between Turkana-Pokot ethnic groups.     

The Culture of Interest: A Proposed Addition and Revision of the Three‐Culture Model

Negotiation and conflict resolution theorists have classified world cultures according to three types for the purpose of describing and predicting some of the ways in which individuals and groups within broad, geographically based cultural groups behave in conflict and negotiation‐related situations. These three broad categories, called “cultural syndromes,” have described these cultures according to the relative value they place on these three concerns: honor, face, and dignity. Based on our examination of the literature on the cultural dimensions of negotiation and conflict management, our own practice, and an analysis of literature and practice pertaining to the place and utility of the honor, face, interest, and dignity attributes within and between cultural groups , we propose a reformulation of this typology. Our reformulation would replace the broad “dignity” category with a new category that we call “interest,” which we believe better characterizes Northern European and North American cultures. We also argue that a cultural orientation toward dignity is universal and not geographically unique and is thus shared by all three cultures. This new formulation, we believe, more accurately characterizes the global range of orientations toward negotiation and conflict resolution and would, if adopted, help scholars and practitioners better understand culturally divergent conflict orientations and behaviors as well as the ramifications of such differences for negotiation and conflict resolution practice.     

东北亚各国经济合作开发与开放政策比较研究

东北亚各国的合作开发与开放政策研究不仅具有理论意义,而且具有更为重要的现实意义。东北亚各国合作开发与开放政策的共同点体现在东北亚各国都把区域合作与本国经济发展相结合,开展各国间的经济合作,并结合本国的产业结构调整,加快开发区、自由贸易区或新区建设,以此作为对外开放的窗口,同时各国政策又有着明显的不同之处,它反映了各国在国际社会中所处的地位不同,反映了本国的国情。     

论汉、越社交称谓语异同及交际策略

社交称谓语是社会交往中不可或缺的语言现象。不同的社交称谓语具有不同的社会功能。汉语和越南语都有着丰富且复杂的社交称谓语系统,汉语称谓语曾对越南语称谓语有着各种影响,但由于地理位置、民族文化、语言习惯等原因,这两种社交称谓语系统有着不同的发展方向和发展途径,因此,汉、越社交称谓语有着相似之处同时又存在不少差异。本文通过对汉、越社交称谓语进行分类对比,探究这两种社交称谓语的异同点及产生异同的原因,再根据它们的特征提出有效可行的交际策略。熟练掌握及正确使用社交称谓语有助于更好地进行跨文化交际。     

解决朝鲜半岛问题的方法、视角及路径选择

解决朝鲜半岛问题需要思路的调整,即要从仍然在相当范围内起作用的冷战思维的误区中解脱出来.从我国的角度,需建立分析朝鲜半岛问题与我国的利害关系的理论坐标,这就是我国的东北亚区域战略目标.只有把朝鲜半岛问题置入到我国东北亚区域战略的框架之中,我们才有可能正确理解它对我国的影响程度,进而为解决朝鲜半岛问题提供路径选择的依据.     

IR Teaching Reloaded: Using Films and Simulations in the Teaching of International Relations

This article reflects some experiences in teaching International Relations (IR) by using films to supplement the use of simulations and role play scenarios. The authors have used simulations and role play scenarios in order to teach complex issues and theories, and to engage the interest of students. By using films to supplement the use of simulations in classrooms, it is suggested that students become more active in their own learning. A number of ways in which simulations and role play can be used in teaching are established here alongside an array of films that can be shown to students to complement such teaching approaches. The use of films to teach IR theory is also listed. It is concluded that the use of simulations, role play, and films in teaching IR can aid student learning especially in terms of IR theory.     

Strengthened US-Japan Cooperation in the South China Sea in the Context of the\"Indo-Pacific Strategy\":Measures,Motivations and Effects

In recent years,the US-Japan alliance has been greatly strengthened,and the South China Sea issue has gradually become an important tool for the two countries to jointly promote the\"Indo-Pacific strategy\"and attract regional countries to deter China.The US and Japan,in mutual support,have engaged in the South China Sea issue at various levels,in various fields and by various means,not only strengthening their military presence in the South China Sea,but also increasing support to the Philippines'provocation against China,which has become important factors for the current heating up of the situation in the South China Sea.     

冲突与兼容:荷印吧城华人遗产继承的法律适用问题——以巴达维亚华人公馆《公案簿》档案为例

在19世纪的吧城华人社会里,华人的遗产继承涉及诸多法律适用问题。本文拟就已整理出版的《公案簿》档案中一些较为典型华人遗产继承案例进行考察和分析,从中探讨荷印法律与中国法律在这一时期吧城华人遗产继承上的相互冲突和相互认可,以及在不同情况和条件下吧城华人遗产继承纠纷的法律条规适用问题,以期进一步了解荷印吧城华人在保持中国传统的同时又逐步融入当地社会生活的进程。     

Television and attitudes toward foreign countries: A report on a survey of Scandinavian children

Children of all ages are more likely to use electronic sources of information such as television and radio-than they are print sources-such as newspapers and magazines-according to a variety of studies. This study examines whether this tendency continues if the children are forced by their primary and secondary school teachers to use multiple news sources-of their own choice-to follow an election campaign. Based on responses from an extraordinarily large sample of 24,348 children, this study focuses on media use by participants in the Kids Voting USA civics education program. Study results demonstrate that even when seeking campaign information in 1994, a non-presidential election year when the emphasis was more on state and local races, children overwhelmingly preferred television and radio as sources of information. Newspaper usage trailed both electronic forms even when a child's family subscribed to a paper. The study found no significant difference between White and non-White children in their choices and uses of information sources. The large sample size also allowed for a detailed look at often neglected subgroups such as Native American children (n = 1,114) and Asian-American children (n = 768).     

Evaluating the impact of IMF programs: A comparison of matching and instrumental-variable estimators

We examine the impact of IMF programs on economic performance in 95 developing countries over the period 1993–2002. Three macroeconomic measures of economic performance are considered: the real per capita economic growth rate, the ratio of the fiscal surplus to GDP, and the ratio of the current account surplus to GDP. Three estimation techniques are used: censored-sample, full-sample instrumental-variable, and matching. Substantively, we find little statistical support that IMF programs contemporaneously improve real economic growth in participating countries, but stronger evidence of an improvement in economic growth in years following a program. We find that both the fiscal ratio and the current-account ratio improve contemporaneously with IMF participation relative to the counterfactual, with effects in succeeding years differing little from the impact effects. We conclude that the program-effect estimates of matching and other estimators will differ largely because of the sample included in estimation. Matching by its nature excludes country episodes associated with extreme values of the propensity score, while the instrumental-variable estimator includes those. If there is heterogeneity of performance response in extreme vs. moderate cases, the estimates differ systematically between the two techniques. JEL codes F33 · F34 · C34     

Health Pluralism: A More Appropriate Alternative to Western Models of Therapy in the Context of the Civil Conflict and Natural Disaster in Sri Lanka?

This paper considers some dilemmas relating to developing effectiveassistance with and to people who have lived through extremeevents in a civil war and ‘post-conflict’ contextwithin Sri Lanka. The tsunami which devastated many coastalareas of Sri Lanka in December 2004 and left many people withno homes or livelihood has further affected the country. A majorissue is how far the concepts and methods of western psychologyand psychiatry are appropriate to radically different culturesand contexts: in particular, how post-conflict and post-disasterpsychosocial rehabilitation may depend in complex ways on localspecifics and interact or not with biomedical notions of PTSDdiagnosis and individual therapy. The relationship between aculture and its healing rituals is a complex one. Cultural,socio-political, existential and personal meanings, expressionsand responses to civil war or traumatic events and their aftermathare likely to be mediated by each individual and the contextin which they occur. This paper details our findings and offerssome suggestions for future practice.     

次区域合作背景下国际河流通航利用的冲突模式——澜沧江—湄公河与图们江的实践比较

探索国际河流合作通航中的经验及模式,对于化解矛盾和早日实现图们江合作通航有着重要意义。以次区域合作为背景,运用地缘政治与地缘经济理论与方法,对澜沧江—湄公河与图们江通航实践进行比较分析,基于正反经验提出了合作通航的冲突模式。研究表明,在国际河流的合作通航中,地缘政治向地缘经济的转移是前提条件,次区域合作是主要推动力,多维利益的平衡是核心问题,签署和规范国际河流法是根本保障。针对图们江合作通航中的矛盾冲突,指出了化解途径。