中国社会科学院国际学术论坛"2006～2007年拉丁美洲和加勒比:变化与选择"综述

2007年3月15~16日,中国社会科学院国际合作局和拉丁美洲研究所主办、中国拉丁美洲学会和社会科学文献出版社协办的中国社会科学院国际学术论坛“2006~2007年拉丁美洲和加勒比:变化与选择”在京举行。论坛共分三部分:拉美的选择对中国的启示、拉美大选后政治格局的变化、拉美形势的特点与发展趋势。本届论坛是继2005年和2006年之后举办的第三届拉丁美洲和加勒比形势国际学术论坛。全国人大常委会副委员长、中拉友好协会会长成思危,以及中联部副部长陈凤翔、外交部拉美司司长曾钢等应邀参加会议并分别发表主题演讲。中国社科院副院长李慎明出…     

中国社会科学院国际学术论坛“2009～2010年拉丁美洲和加勒比:后危机时期——金融与技术创新”综述

2010年3月26日,中国社会科学院国际学术论坛2009～2010年拉丁美洲和加勒比在中国社会科学院学术报告厅召开,会议主题为后危机时期--金融与技术创新.论坛由中国社会科学院国际学部和国际合作局、OECD主办,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所承办,论坛聚焦当前拉美和加勒比地区形势和后危机时期的重大理论和现实问题.     

中国社会科学院国际学术论坛“2008～2009年拉丁美洲和加勒比:社会凝聚与全球金融危机的新挑战”综述

2009年3月2日,以拉丁美洲和加勒比地区形势为专题的年度国际学术论坛--"中国社会科学院国际学术论坛:2008～2009年拉丁美洲和加勒比"在中国社会科学院学术报告厅召开,会议主题为"社会凝聚与全球金融危机的新挑战".     

国际区域经济一体化进程与中国

21世纪以来,由于多边贸易谈判屡次受挫,世界各国开始热衷于推进区域经济一体化进程,积极开展区域贸易协定谈判。目前,全球及各主要地区的区域贸易协定在合作模式、运行机制以及运作领域等方面呈现出许多新特征。中国已于2001年起努力寻求与贸易伙伴缔结区域贸易协定。研究区域经济一体化进程及其特点,将有利于深化我国的区域经济一体化战略,应对新的国际区域经济合作进程。     

Sometimes You Just Have to Leave: Domestic Threats and Forced Migration, 1964-1989

In this study we explore why persons flee their homes to become refugees and internally displaced persons. We contend that individuals will tend to flee when the integrity of their person is threatened. Further, we argue that they will flee toward countries where they expect conditions to be better. We conduct statistical analyses using fixed effects least squares, on a pooled cross-sectional time-series data set, consisting of data from 129 countries for the years 1964-1989. Our findings support the conclusion that threats to personal integrity are of primary importance in leading people to abandon their homes. Measures of state threats to personal integrity, dissident threats to personal integrity, and joint state-dissident threats each have statistically significant and substantively important effects on migrant production. We also find that countries making moves toward democracy tend to have greater number of forced migrants, once other factors are considered. We conclude the analysis by identifying several lucrative areas for further investigation.     

Violence,fear, and development in Latin America: a critical overview

This introduction presents the core concepts that shape this special issue on the impact of violence and the processes of development in Central and South America. The understanding of development is considered in terms broader than the economic context alone, in order to assess wider social and political aspects. With a similarly expansive scope, forms of violence are addressed that range from direct physical harm and bodily attack to the often more subtle aggression of racialised abuse or the pressures on community-centred production from dominant market forces. In these contexts, violence, economic initiatives, and political allegiances form unintended and often dangerous networks of consequence for development matters. All the articles in this volume exemplify further the spatial environments of violence and diverse ‘landscapes of fear’ that shape our existence and help to define our actions, territories, and understanding of what happens around us.     

Richard Nixon and Economic Nationalism in Latin America: The Problem of Expropriations, 1969-1974

During the late 1960s and early 1970s, the Nixon administration confronted the problem of how best to protect US economic interests in Latin America during a period of rising economic nationalism. After extensive debate, the president approved a policy designed to deter expropriations and rein in nationalist economic sentiment by threatening to terminate US and international financial assistance to countries that expropriated American holdings without prompt and adequate compensation. As it turned out, however, this policy was little short of a disaster. Nixon's stance heightened American unpopularity during a period when US credibility in Latin America was already on the wane, and failed to have any restraining effect on either the number of expropriations by Latin American countries or the strength of economic nationalism in the area. Informed by domestic and bureaucratic pressures and the same ideological proclivities that have long characterized American relations with the underdeveloped world, Nixon's policy on the expropriations issue ultimately proved ineffective and even pernicious to US interests in Latin America.     

《拉丁美洲和加勒比发展报告(2010～2011)》(黄皮书)发布式暨拉美形势研讨会综述

2011年4月20日,由中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所和社会科学文献出版社联合举办的"2011年<拉美黄皮书>发布式暨拉美形势研讨会"在京举行,正式发布由社会科学文献出版社出版的<拉丁美洲和加勒比发展报告(2010～2011)>.外交部、中联部、商务部、中国人民银行、国家开发银行、北京大学、南开大学等机构的专家学者以及人民日报、新华社、中央电视台、中国国际广播电台等国内媒体人士共150余人出席了会议.     

The G7, International Terrorism and Domestic Politics: Modeling Policy Cohesion in Response to Systemic Disturbance

This work probes the variability in G7 cohesion in response to relatively new disturbances in the international system. Using a domestic politics model, we argue that G7 cohesion weakens in the face of international terrorism in the context of variable domestic consequences to common foreign policy responses to this systemic disturbance. We compare the predictions from our model with predictions stemming from neorealist and liberal/institutionalist explanations. We find that, consistent with the domestic politics explanation, G7 foreign policy cohesion declines as internal terrorism increases.     

中国社会科学院国际学术论坛"2007～2008年拉丁美洲和加勒比:多样性与挑战"综述

2008年2月27日,中国社会科学院国际学术论坛"2007～2008年拉丁美洲和加勒比:多样性与挑战"在中国社科院学术报告厅召开.这次论坛由中国社科院国际学部、国际合作局、拉丁美洲研究所共同主办,中国拉美学会和社科文献出版社协办.本届论坛是自2005年以来举办的第四届拉丁美洲和加勒比形势国际学术论坛(年会).     

拉美"增长性贫困"与社会保障的减困功能——国际比较的背景

在考察1980～2008年拉美增长与贫困等数据时发现,拉美地区存在一个比较特殊的社会经济现象:一方面经济呈增长状态(虽然增幅很小),但另一方面贫困率却也呈持续上升趋势,只有当增长率超过3%时贫困率才开始下降.作者将拉美这个特殊现象称之为"增长性贫困"和"3%拐点假说".索罗一斯旺增长模型的引入在理论上检验了增长可以减困和"3%拐点假说"的"增长性贫困"存在的依据,诠释了1981年以来智利增长与收入分配不公得以并存的现象,解释了分配不公会降低增长对减困的弹性的事实.实证分析的结果显示,有些相关在欧盟和美国是失灵的(如"3%拐点"),有些则没有失灵(如"奥肯定律").重要的是,在比较欧盟和美国等经济体时发现,欧美社保制度的减困效果在拉美基本是"失灵"的,在作者估算中发现拉美地区社保制度的减困幅度和减困系数都远远小于欧盟和美国,并发现拉美社保制度的减困效果之所以会出现这个差距,之所以出现"增长性贫困",除初次分配不公和初始贫困率较高等其他因素之外,与拉美社保制度在改革之后存在一些问题存在高度相关:在缺乏再分配作用的同时,个人缴费率较高,对参保人遵缴率和缴费密度的要求较高,这与拉美就业市场多元化发展趋势形成冲突,参保人难以满足,导致替代率逐年下降;这一制度问题对制度外非参保人员形成负面影响,导致预期低下,进而致使制度覆盖面不但不能扩大,反而比改革前还要低.拉美式"半覆盖"社保制度却使其"合法性"逐渐开始演变成一个"政治问题":2008年11月阿根延私有化社保制度的"国有化事件"和两年前厄瓜多尔私有化社保的"骚乱事件"可视为颠覆其"合法性"的开端,可见,拉美私有化社保模式将面临严峻考验.     

Speech Rights in America: The First Amendment,Democracy, and the Media,by Laura Stein Beyond the First Amendment: The Politics of Free Speech and Pluralism,by Samuel P. Nelson

In this article, we develop and test an economic theory of Supreme Court news. We hypothesize that information about the Third Branch is newsworthy when it has lower production costs and qualities attractive to the audiences and advertisers desired by news organizations. We examine Supreme Court news in elite newspapers, television news broadcasts, and online news sources during the October 2008 and 2010 terms. The results of our quantitative analyses indicate that all three types of news outlets are more likely to provide content about Supreme Court decisions with substantive importance but vary in their responses to costs and qualities appealing to the lay audience. We conclude by discussing the similarities and differences among news outlets with regard to their selection of Supreme Court information as news content.