2020年的东盟及其与中国关系

由10个中小国家组成的东盟，无论从其国土面积，人口数量还是从经济、贸易规模来看，作为一个整体已相当于一个重要的大国，成为亚太地区的一极。在经济全球化和区域一体化浪潮不断高涨的今天，东盟迎来了成立40年。回眸东盟成立的历史，它的确取得了举世瞩目的辉煌成就，在国际上的地位和作用日益显现。在关注它的昨天和今天的同时，这里笔者也试图对今后10多年的东盟作一前瞻，尤其是它的一体化进程、经济发展及其与中国关系的前景。     

The impact of foreign-owned enterprises in low-income economies

An economic impact snapshot of foreign and domestic enterprises from the functional economic areas of Guinea-Bissau showed that not all micro and small enterprises (MSEs) are local, and not all outside investment is large scale. We find that South–South entrepreneurship has prospects to improve livelihoods as drivers of economic growth and development in a low-income economy. While political instability and a lack of resources remain as barriers to solvency for both domestic and foreign investors in the global periphery, as opportunities and effective business strategies are fostered, improved socio-economic integration and development results.     

新条件下推进中俄经贸合作重要问题研究

目前 ,在中俄两国政治关系不断改善与升级的同时 ,两国经贸关系虽有较大发展 ,但仍有着不稳定、水平不高、进出口结构单一和不规范的特点。进入 2 1世纪 ,加强中俄经贸合作对进一步巩固两国的政治关系、促进经济发展具有重要的战略意义。为此 ,在新的历史条件下 ,应以新的思路与对策 ,积极推进两国经贸合作的发展。     

中俄市场化程度的比较分析

市场化是推动经济发展的一个重要因素。世界不同的权威机构研究结果一致认为,中国经济自由化指数排名领先于俄罗斯。但是,欧盟和美国至今没有承认中国为市场经济国家,相反,它们早在 2002年就已先后承认俄罗斯为市场经济国家。究其原因,“市场经济地位”背后隐藏着国家之间的贸易利益,同时,政治方面也是影响因素。只有坚持市场化方向、进一步深化改革,才能充分发挥出我国经济发展的巨大潜力空间。     

The Road to Brussels: Austria's Integration Policy, 1955-72

If one analyzes Austrian integration policy, a range of repeating elements becomes visible. Starting with the 1950s, continued efforts to intensify economic and trade relations with the Common Market can be witnessed. This occurred in the form of step by step cooperation with European institutions. Since 1955 Austria's integration policy had been accompanied by the maintenance of and focus on 'permanent neutrality'. Among the EFTA states, Austria was the country the EEC sympathized with most, for it was important with regard to foreign and trade policy in the context of the East-West conflict. Austria was of central geostrategic significance. With regard to Russia's attitude, Austria succeeded in underlining its 'special case'. Austria's policy of going it alone failed in 1967 for several reasons, not only because of Italy's veto. There were also French reservations and Russian objections. Bridging the gap to Brussels revealed wishful thinking that was only to become true in 1972. An arrangement of bilateral tariff and trade treaties with different EFTA states and the EEC and ECSC came into force.     

中东政治转型及中国中东外交

中东变局持续一年多来,地区局势依旧存在诸多不确定和不稳定因素,但剧烈的群体性动荡局面有所缓和,地区国家将渐次进入深化变革和转型的长期过程。当前的转型主要反映在国内政治方面,但中东转型需求是全方位的,社会文化的转型更具深意,很大程度上决定转型的整体方向和最终成败。地区内部各种力量的博弈、传统文化、宗教及社会思潮都试图在中东转型过程中发挥引领作用和影响力,而全球政治的变化及世界经济的发展同样将对中东转型产生重大影响。面对新形势,中国中东外交要拓展思路,着眼未来,主动谋局,塑造有利环境,提升政治影响力。     

调整中的俄罗斯与东南亚关系及影响因素

俄罗斯曾一度推行亲西方外交 ,结果导致国际地位下降 ,国内民众强烈不满。为扭转不利局面 ,重振大国地位 ,俄罗斯很快开始对外交战略作出重大调整。作为一个欧亚大国 ,俄罗斯的国家利益形成于“特定的地缘政治、经济、社会和文化环境中 ,使得其既不能绝对地关注西方 ,也不能绝对地关注东方”①。随着冷战的结束 ,亚太地区逐渐进入世界文明的发展中心 ,东方在俄罗斯外交中必将日益具有重要的作用。一、稳步发展的俄罗斯与东南亚国家关系1 .恢复与传统盟友的合作冷战结束、苏联解体以及中苏(俄)、中越关系的改善和发展 ,使得苏联与越南关系中…     

L. Louër,Transnational Shia Politics: Religious and Political Networks in the Gulf

If one analyzes Austrian integration policy, a range of repeating elements becomes visible. Starting with the 1950s, continued efforts to intensify economic and trade relations with the Common Market can be witnessed. This occurred in the form of step by step cooperation with European institutions. Since 1955 Austria's integration policy had been accompanied by the maintenance of and focus on 'permanent neutrality'. Among the EFTA states, Austria was the country the EEC sympathized with most, for it was important with regard to foreign and trade policy in the context of the East-West conflict. Austria was of central geostrategic significance. With regard to Russia's attitude, Austria succeeded in underlining its 'special case'. Austria's policy of going it alone failed in 1967 for several reasons, not only because of Italy's veto. There were also French reservations and Russian objections. Bridging the gap to Brussels revealed wishful thinking that was only to become true in 1972. An arrangement of bilateral tariff and trade treaties with different EFTA states and the EEC and ECSC came into force.     

Power Play: Mediation in Symmetric and Asymmetric International Crises

This study engages with the question: Do different types of natural disasters—droughts, earthquakes, floods, storms, and others—trigger political instability? It revisits an ongoing debate over the nature of association between disasters and conflict and reassesses this relationship using the model of conflict developed by the Political Instability Task Force as well as its data, measures of political instability, and methods of assessment. The study finds only marginal support for the impact of certain types of disasters on the onsets of political instability. The preexisting country-specific conditions, including the resilience of a state's institutions to crisis, account for most of the variance in the dependent variable. Once the characteristics of a state's political regime are taken into account, the effect of disasters weakens or disappears completely, suggesting that natural disasters become catalysts of political instability in only those states which are already prone to conflict.     

试论泰国政治发展的经验

政治发展是指政治系统的正向变迁过程,目的是社会价值的公正、公平的分配。在这个过程中,政治的诸要素得以改变以适应这个目标的实现。泰国正处在一个政治发展的新阶段,其社会政治力量在分化组合,政治文化也在转型,政治体制的调整日益到位。泰国的政治发展虽有着自己独特的历程,但其经验也值得发展中国家借鉴。这些经验包括:政治发展必须以合法性为阶段性目标;政治稳定至关重要;军队地位的适当与否,影响政治发展;政治发展应该有相应的政治文化支撑;国家整合是政治发展的必要前提等。     

Does the sequence of land reform and political reform matter? Evidence from state-building in Afghanistan

Property insecurity is associated with terrorism, insurgency and economic underdevelopment. For this reason, land reform is often implemented alongside political reform in post-conflict settings. In contrast, this article argues that political reform should be sequenced prior to land reform during state-building. Evidence from Afghanistan shows how land redistribution, legal titling, decentralisation of state-owned land and provision of legal services to resolve land disputes are unlikely to alleviate political violence or facilitate economic development without establishing or substantially improving political capacity, political constraints and inclusive political institutions at the local level. These findings suggest the importance of sequence in the process of land reform and political reform. More generally, political reform is a prerequisite for land reform to reduce violence and improve development prospects in post-conflict settings.     

Natural Disasters and the Size of Nations

What is the relationship between natural disasters and country size? Is an increasing likelihood of environmental shocks linked to political integration or secessionism? We argue that natural disasters are associated with a decline in country size. This relationship arises because costs generated by disasters are higher for citizens located farther away from the political center of a country, and costs are amplified as disasters affect a larger area in a country, which in turn makes it less desirable for citizens in remote regions to remain part of a larger country. Our empirical results show that greater risks of environmental shocks are indeed associated with smaller countries, as well as smaller administrative units.     

欧盟亚太外交中的朝鲜半岛政策

1991年12月9日《欧洲联盟条约》签署后,欧洲联盟国家在追求经济一体化的同时,也在追求政治一体化,即欧洲联盟国家应以国家联盟共同体的方式,用一种声音说话。由于欧盟成员国间政治经济发展的不平衡以及在对外关系中的各自特点和差异,欧盟在对外政策上要完全用一个声音说话,还需要一个较为漫长的过程,也会受到成员国各种因素的制约。欧盟对朝鲜半岛政策从奉行接触到积极介入以及其中的起伏变化,多少能够看出欧盟在对外政策方面的相对模糊与迟缓。     

Expectations,Rivalries, and Civil War Duration

This paper criticizes the status quo position in African politics on two accounts. First it furthered the consolidation of the state system, and thereby, the failure of integration on the continental level. Second, it resulted in the spread and escalation of ethnic conflicts as a reaction to the suppression of the aspirations for independent expression and equality.

At one level, explaining ethnic conflict requires the reconstruction, in terms of a theory, of the specific context in which it occurs. In this regard, we suggest that ethnic conflicts in Africa are an outgrowth of the consideration that ethnicity constitutes the dominant mode of political practice akin to the state system of dependent, nurture capitalism. Four conditions determine the conflictive potentialities of the ethnic situation: communalization of political practice, catastrophic balance between ethnic groups, economic and political inequalities, and articulation of class conflict and ethnic organization.

Conflict and integration processes are grounded in the dynamics of identity formation. Our hypothesis is that identity formation is contingent on four elements: a) maximum structured relations; b) minimum differentiation; c) maximum ideological interpellation; and d) maximum unity of labor processes. By projecting these conditions on African politics, we advance the thesis that integration in Africa could be worked out as a mode of ethnic conflict resolution and prevention if, in addition to the progressive substantiation of the four elements mentioned above, it takes place on the continental level.     

Civilian supremacy in democracies with ‘fault lines’: The role of the parliamentary standing committee on defence in Bangladesh

This article sets out to identify the conditions that promote civilian supremacy over the military in the post-military democracies. The article addresses the case of Bangladesh, where a decade-old post-military democratic political process is riddled with problems, such as the absence of opposition parties in the parliament, chronic political instability and violence and inefficient governance. However, the powerful military has not yet shown any inclination towards intervention in domestic politics. Rather, various civilian institutions, such as the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence (PSCD), have been successful in raising the level of the military's accountability to the civilian government and society. The article seeks to explain the role of PSCD during 1998–2001 in promoting civilian supremacy in Bangladesh. It argues that three sets of factors can explain the PSCD's role. First, there is intense competition for political power between the two major parties, which resists the military's involvement in politics in favour of any one political party. Second, there is the important role of civil society in favour of civilian supremacy. Third, there are external factors such as the donor countries' and international agencies' stance in favour of democracy and the Bangladesh military's participation in United Nations peacekeeping missions, which are discouraging military intervention in politics at home.     

Legal Harmonisation in Africa: Taking Stock and Moving Forward

Despite the lofty objectives set out in the treaties of African intergovernmental organisations, such as the African Union, ECOWAS, SADC and the East African Community, legal harmonisation in Africa is still underdeveloped. Apart from a push towards harmonisation in the protection of human rights and the environment, mainly driven by a global agenda, some progress has been made with regard to legal harmonisation linked to economic integration at the sub-regional level. However, the process is slow and measures to ensure implementation of agreed norms at the national level and ensure consistent interpretation are still underdeveloped. This is illustrative of the lack of political will and the big gap between political rhetoric and reality on the African continent.     

Civil society and the European common security and defence policy

The involvement of civil society organizations (CSOs) is widely regarded by students of the EU's domestic policy fields as enhancing transparency and accountability and, more generally, the democratic quality of political processes. This article explores the contribution of CSOs to the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy and assesses whether a democracy-enhancing effect of their involvement can also be demonstrated for this policy field. We analyse the contribution of CSOs based on two common models of democracy: the intergovernmental and the supranational model of democracy. We find that CSOs are indeed quite actively involved in the EU's security policy. With regard to their democracy-enhancing effects, however, our findings are rather mixed. While the engagement of CSOs does provide a remedy for the democratic deficits associated with intergovernmental decision-making, these organizations do not fully meet the demands posed by supranational governance.     

拉美民众意识形态极化趋势及其影响

拉美国家近年来政局不稳的一个重要原因在于民众的意识形态出现了极化的趋势。本文分析了2012—2019年间“美洲晴雨表”中18个拉美国家的数据,发现自2014年以来,持极端意识形态的民众尤其是持极左观点的民众比重出现了显著上升,这主要是受到经济发展形势和各国执政党意识形态两个因素的交互影响。宏观上,以极左民众比重上升为特征的极化趋势主要是受到整个区域经济持续低迷和右翼政府的紧缩性经济政策影响。微观上,本文通过回归分析发现,民众对国家经济形势的判断与其所在国执政党的意识形态共同影响着其极化方向。在右翼执政的国家,民众对国家经济形势的评价越负面,其持极左观点的概率越高,持极右观点的概率越低;在左翼执政的国家,民众对国家经济形势的评价越负面,其持极左观点的概率越低,持极右观点的概率越高。最后,本文讨论了民众意识形态极化对拉美国家政局稳定的影响。本文发现,拉美极端民众尤其是极左民众参加抗议游行的概率显著高于温和民众。这意味着一国的极端民众比重越高,其发生大规模示威游行的概率越高。     

The politics of deep integration*

Abstract

Efforts to pursue ‘deep integration’—agreeing to international rules governing domestic policies to mitigate their adverse trade effects—have been pivotal to the politicization of trade policy. The contributions to this special issue focus on different political dynamics associated with recent high-profile efforts at deep integration. Collectively, they analyse the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) and the Japan–European Union Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) negotiations. The special issue, therefore, focuses on extreme examples of deep integration in order to illuminate new political dynamics. This introductory article introduces the concept of ‘deep integration’ and explores how it has been pursued in historical and contemporary trade negotiations. It also relates recent attempts at deep integration to the rise of populist anti-globalization movements. In light of these discussions, this article introduces the contributions to the issue. It concludes by considering whether the politics associated with TTIP and CETA in Europe represent the future of trade policy.     

Which European Public Order? Sources of Imbalance in the European Area of Freedom,Security and Justice1

Abstract

The creation of the Single European Market has been accompanied by an intense discussion on whether market-creating measures have been privileged over market-correcting ones by the institutional system of the EU. The creation of an ‘Area of Freedom, Security and Justice’ (AFSJ) launched by the Treaty of Amsterdam poses a similar question which, however, has remained heavily under-researched: will the balance between policing competencies and individual rights shift towards the former at the expense of the latter? Recent work on the ‘new raison d’état’ and the strengthening of national executives in processes of Europeanisation points in this direction. This essay explores the parallels between the Common Market and the AFSJ with regard to the relationship between the structures and substance of governance. The balance between security and individual rights is scrutinised in the main pillars of the AFSJ: asylum cooperation, judicial cooperation in criminal matters and police cooperation.