Seeing the Lexus for the Olive Trees? Public Opinion,Economic Interdependence,and Interstate Conflict

Many scholars argue that economic interdependence and more extensive economic ties between countries decreases the risk of violent conflict between them. However, despite considerable research on the “capitalist peace” at the macro or dyadic level, there has been less attention to its possible individual-level microfoundations or underpinnings. We argue that public perceptions about economic ties with other states and the costs of conflict should influence the expected constraints on the use of force for leaders. Actual high interdependence and potential economic costs may not suffice to create political constraints on the use of force if people are unaware of the degree of interdependence or fail to understand the benefits of trade and the likely economic costs of disruptive conflict. We examine the linkages between individual perceptions about economic interdependence and their views on conflict and peace through a survey experiment, where we ask respondents in Japan about approval for belligerent actions in a territorial dispute with China and varying information about economic ties. Our findings indicate that greater knowledge and information about economic interdependence affects attitudes about territorial disputes and increases support for peaceful solutions with China.     

Democracy and the Preparation for War: Does Regime Type Affect States' Anticipation of Casualties?

Immanuel Kant and more recent expositors of the democratic peace thesis suggest that citizens in a republic sanction leaders for resorting to war because, in part, citizens are loath to shed their own blood. This Kantian thesis in turn implies substitution. Just as consumers confronted with price shocks shift consumption to less affected goods rather than simply curtailing consumption, democratic leaders facing retribution for casualties can limit losses, not just by avoiding military contests, but also by substituting capital (ships, tanks, aircraft) for labor (soldiers, sailors, airmen) in the provision of security. A simple consumer choice model shows that citizens' leverage over leaders implies that democracies should consume disproportionately more capital in preparing for—and conducting—defense. Numerous anecdotes assert that democracies do shelter labor with capital, especially during war, but tests of defense-factor allocations on factor endowments, regime-type, and other variables show that defense-factor usage is explained by basic economic theory and not by democracy.     

Oil,Natural Gas,and Intrastate Conflict: Does Ownership Matter?

The impact of natural resources on intrastate violence has been increasingly analyzed in the peace and conflict literature. Surprisingly, little quantitative evidence has been gathered on the effects of the resource-ownership structure on internal violence. This article uses a novel data set on oil and natural gas property rights, covering 40 countries during the period 1989–2010. The results of regression analyses employing logit models reveal that the curvilinear effect between hydrocarbon production and civil conflict onset—often found in previous studies—only applies to countries in which oil and gas is extracted by state-owned companies. The findings suggest that only state-controlled hydrocarbon production might entail peace-buying mechanisms such as specific clientelistic practices, patronage networks, welfare policies, and/or coercion. At the same time, it seems that greed and grievance are more pronounced whenever resources lie in the hands of the state. Exploring the within-country variation, further analyses reveal that divergent welfare spending patterns are likely to be one causal channel driving the relationship between resource ownership and internal violence.     

Does Democratization Reduce the Risk of Military Interventions in Politics in Africa?

This article investigates whether there is an association between a trajectory of political liberalization, democratization, and military interventions. In what is arguably the ‘least likely case’ region in the world, this study analyzes the experience of 55 regimes in Africa between 1990 and 2004 and finds a striking regularity. Liberalizing, and in particular democratic, regimes have a significantly different track record of being subjected either to successful or failed military interventions. The analysis suggests that democratic regimes are about 7.5 times less likely to be subjected to attempted military interventions than electoral authoritarian regimes and almost 18 times less likely to be victims of actual regime breakdown as a result. Through an additional case study analysis of the ‘anomalous’ cases of interventions in democratic polities, the results are largely strengthened as most of the stories behind the numbers suggests that it is only when democratic regimes perform dismally and/or do not pay soldiers their salaries that they are at great risk of being overthrown. Legitimacy accrued by political liberalization seems to ‘inoculate’ states against military intervention in the political realm.     

Toward a Theory of Weakness Politics: Does Weakness Rule the World?

This article argues that the debate on “new wars” and “post-Westphalian” wars and conflicts misses a crucial dimension, that of the importance of weakness in the relations between states as well as between states and non-state entities. Most analyses of war examine power relationships between states as if power were an essential determinant of success or failure in war. Recent wars, however, show that weakness can in fact become a strength, that inequality is not so much a problem as an advantage. The author suggests the need to rename and re-problematise “new wars” as “new international conflicts” (NICs), for otherwise we miss the fundamental reasons why “powers” are often defeated, or at least held at bay by the “weakness” of their adversaries. Suggestions will also be made about how to potentially resolve such unequal conflicts and wars.     

Negotiation or Mediation?: An Exploration of Factors Affecting the Choiceof Conflict Management in International Conflict

The conditions under which negotiation or mediation are chosen in internationalconflict have been little studied. Previous research has tended tofocus on the motivations and rational calculations of the states involved.Scant attention has been given to examining the effect of the context onthis choice. In this article, we present a framework for studying the contextualconditions under which negotiation or mediation are likely to takeplace. Employing an original data set, we find that negotiation tends to beused when conflicts are relatively simple, of a low intensity, and when bothparties are relatively equal in power. Mediation, on the other hand, tends tobe used in disputes characterized by high complexity, high intensity, longduration, unequal and fractionated parties, and where the willingness ofthe parties to settle peacefully is in doubt.     

Changing Owners,Changing Content: Does Who Owns the News Matter for the News?

The press is essential for creating an informed citizenry, but its existence depends on attracting and maintaining an audience. It is unclear whether supply-side effects—including those dictated by the owners of the media—influence how the media cover politics, yet this question is essential given their abilities to set the agenda and frame issues that are covered. We examine how ownership influences media behavior by investigating the impact of Rupert Murdoch’s purchase of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) in August 2007. We collect data on every front-page story and editorial for 27 months, and we compare the difference in political coverage between the New York Times (NYT) and WSJ using a difference-in-differences design. We show that the amount of political content in the opinion pages of the two papers were unchanged by the sale, but the WSJ’s front-page coverage of politics increased markedly relative to the NYT. Similar patterns emerge when comparing the WSJ’s content to USA Today and the Washington Post. Our finding highlights potential limits to journalists’ ability to fulfill their supposed watchdog role in democracies without interference from owners in the boardroom.     

Does the State Promote Communal Violence for Electoral Reasons?

It has often been alleged, most recently in the recommendations of India's National Advisory Council (NAC), that the Indian state promotes, or is complicit in, Hindu-Muslim violence for political or electoral reasons. But the evidence for the claim has historically been sketchy. In StevenWilkinson's work, Votes and Violence, the argument is that the evidence supporting state complicity is systematic.We examine this argument and find it to be fundamentally flawed.     

Spreading Hindutva through education: Still a priority for the BJP?

This article explores how the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has pursued its ideology of Hindu nationalism through educational reforms. It pays most attention to the reforms undertaken by the first BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, from 1998–2004. A key argument is that these reforms mirrored BJP’s ideology. The reforms were legitimized with reference to certain challenges facing contemporary Indian society, particularly the threats represented by value degradation and a weakening of indigenous traditions. I view such arguments in terms of sublimating all challenges to the cultural realm. Moreover, these reforms aimed to establish an education system based on a coherent, integrative framework, concurring with the ideological outlook of the BJP. In the final part of the article, I examine the current NDA regime and seek to explain why similar reforms do not appear to be high on Prime Minister Modi’s agenda. By doing so, the article sheds light on the question of Modi’s commitment to Hindu nationalist ideology. A major argument is that to Modi, Hindutva-inspired reforms of the education system collide with the promises made during his electoral campaign and with key elements of the political programs he has initiated so far.     

Whither the Balancers? The Case for a Methodological Reset

Post-Cold War, balancing theory has fallen on “hard times.” A question of crucial importance for 21st-century peace and stability concerns how Asia–Pacific secondary states are responding militarily to China's rise. China's rapid growth, military modernization, and controversial policies vis-à-vis contested space and territories on its periphery make it a prime candidate for counterbalancing behavior. Yet several recent studies claim that secondary states are accommodating, even bandwagoning with, Beijing. This study challenges these claims, attributing them largely to problematic research designs not uncommon in the wider balancing literature. It proposes a methodological corrective, arguing for widespread employment of an alternative analytical framework relying on clearer definitions and explicitly delineated sets of 21st-century-relevant metrics reflecting the myriad ways contemporary militaries enhance their capabilities in response to perceived threats. Applied systematically to original analysis of the contemporary Asia–Pacific, this framework uncovers what existing studies miss—evidence of practically significant and accelerating balancing against China.     

Toilet is not a dirty word: close to meeting the MDGs for sanitation?

Improving access to water and sanitation facilities has been a priority on the international development agenda. Halving the number of those who do not have access to sanitation facilities is an MDG target. This study assessed the toilet conditions in an urban slum in Ghana. Many felt that the sanitary conditions were deplorable; they were unsatisfied with having to walk over half a kilometre before using a toilet. Government efforts to improve hygiene and address sanitation problems need to take into account financial, religious, and other factors that promote the supply and maintenance of appropriate toilet facilities and services in urban communities.

Toilettes n'est pas un mot tabou : à deux doigts d'atteindre les OMD en matière d'assainissement ?

L'amélioration de l'accès à l'eau et aux installations sanitaires a été une priorité de l'ordre du jour international en matière de développement. La réduction de moitié du nombre de personnes qui n'ont pas accès à des installations d'assainissement est un OMD. Cette étude a évalué les conditions sur le plan des toilettes dans un bidonville urbain du Ghana. De nombreuses personnes estimaient que les conditions d'assainissement y étaient déplorables; elles n'étaient pas satisfaites de devoir parcourir plus d'un demi-kilomètre pour pouvoir utiliser des toilettes. Les efforts fournis par les pouvoirs publics pour améliorer l'hygiène et résoudre les problèmes d'assainissement doivent tenir compte des facteurs financiers, religieux et autres qui favorisent la fourniture et l'entretien d'installations et de services de toilettes dans les communautés urbaines.

Excusado no es una mala palabra: ¿se está próximo a cumplir con los odm en el área de saneamiento?

La ampliación del acceso al agua potable y al saneamiento ha sido una prioridad del desarrollo internacional. Una de las metas de los odm es reducir a la mitad el número de personas que actualmente carecen de acceso al saneamiento. El presente artículo valora las condiciones en que se encuentran los excusados en un barrio pobre de Ghana. Muchos de quienes residen allí consideran que las condiciones de saneamiento son deplorables, manifestando su desacuerdo con tener que caminar más de medio kilómetro para hacer uso del excusado. Los esfuerzos realizados por el gobierno para mejorar la higiene y enfrentar los problemas de saneamiento, deberán tomar en cuenta tanto los factores financieros como los religiosos u otros que promuevan la oferta y el mantenimiento de excusados, así como la posibilidad de otros servicios de saneamiento en las comunidades urbanas.

Banheiro não é uma palavrão: estamos prestes a cumprir os ODMs para saneamento?

Melhorar o acesso a redes de abastecimento de água e saneamento tem sido uma prioridade na agenda de desenvolvimento internacional. Reduzir pela metade o número de pessoas que não têm acesso a redes de saneamento faz parte dos Objetivos de Desenvolvimento do Milênio (ODMs). Este estudo avaliou as condições de banheiros em uma favela na zona urbana de Gana. Muitos sentiam que as condições de saneamento eram deploráveis e estavam insatisfeitos em ter de caminhar mais de meio quilômetro para usar um banheiro. Esforços do governo para melhorar a higiene e abordar os problemas de saneamento precisam levar em conta fatores financeiros, religiosos, além de outros, que promovam o fornecimento e manutenção de instalações de banheiros e serviços adequados nas comunidades urbanas.     

TNCs: Aid agents for the new millennium?

Until very recently private capital flows to developing countries have been growing rapidly. In the wake of the 1997 East Asian financial crisis, foreign direct investment has been identified as a vital ingredient to restore and invigorate the economies in the Asian region and beyond. In an attempt to attract overseas capital and to stimulate economic development, countries such as the Philippines have stepped up the adoption of policies that allow for greater access by foreign investors. Increasingly, it appears that foreign capital, provided through transnational corporations, is set to replace official aid and to promote economic development first and foremost, with 'trickle-down' social benefits to follow. This study examines the role of one transnational corporation called the Alliance, in the promised development of Bohol in the Philippines, as a by-product of a water treatment and supply proposal linking the island provinces of Bohol and Cebu. The findings suggest that economic objectives tend to take priority over social development. The Alliance seemed to expound its economic and technical ability, with less effort given to involving and consulting with affected communities. This resulted in residents being disenfranchised from the development process, and gave rise to a feeling of mistrust and resentment.     

The Chicken or the Egg?: A Coevolutionary Approach to Disputed Issues and Militarized Conflict

Is state behavior influenced by the context in which it occurs, or does context arise because of the way in which states behave? I investigate these questions in the context of international disputes over issues and states’ militarized behavior. The prevalent assumption in interstate conflict research is that disputed issues are exogenous to militarization patterns. I question the validity of this assumption, arguing there are reasons to suspect certain states self-select into disputes. I use a coevolution modeling strategy to allow the existence of disputes and states’ behavior to mutually affect one another. I find disputes are not exogenous to states’ militarized behavior. States that resort to militarized behavior are more likely to dispute an issue than peaceful states. I also find evidence of behavioral contagion among states engaged in disputes: Militarized behavior begets militarized behavior.     

The Status of Democracy and Human Rights in the Middle East: Does Regime Type Make a Difference?

The collapse of communism and the end of the Cold War have been accompanied by the spread of democracy, advancement in human rights, and the introduction of market reforms throughout the world. The Middle East has been no exception to this trend. There, in response to mounting economic crises and domestic pressures, several governments introduced democratic and economic reforms. This article investigates the progress that Middle East states have made on the path to political liberalization. In particular, it explores whether democratic reforms vary between regional republics and monarchies. To do so, the study analyzes patterns and trends associated with the distribution of political authority and human rights. The article employs five dimensions in this process, including electoral procedural democracy, liberal democracy, personal integrity rights, subsistence rights, and economic freedom. On the one hand, our findings comport with the view that Middle East states have not made significant progress toward institutionalizing procedural democracy and civil liberties. On the other, they lend support to the notion that liberalization is occurring in the region, particularly among monarchies.     

On the Meiji Restoration: Japan's search for sovereignty?

It is generally taken for granted that the Meiji Restorationwas a watershed event that incorporated Japan into the modernsovereign state system. This conventional wisdom is misleading.The Japanese political system that existed prior to the MeijiRestoration, the so-called Tokugawa Baku-Han regime, was comparablewith many modern sovereign states in its exercise of publicauthority and its ability to control cross-border movements.Furthermore, as Krasner has shown, sovereignty itself is a problematicconcept, the fundamental norms and principles of which are frequentlyviolated. A case study of the 1862 incident known as NamamugiJiken demonstrates how Japan was recognized and treated internationally,revealing that while some aspects of Japan's sovereignty wereconveniently violated, other sovereignty norms were certainlyrespected by the Western nations. These norms constrained therange of choices available to the key actors involved in thisincident and thus significantly affected the subsequent courseof events, which ultimately led to Tokugawa's collapse in 1868.Hence, it was the complex (hypocritical) nature of Japan's existentsovereignty, and not its absence, that explains why the MeijiRestoration occurred the way it actually did.     

Setting political priorities: What role for the press?

This article reviews briefly the relationship between the press and politics in the United States, using one influential press lord, Roy W. Howard, as a case study. It also reviews the results of social science research on media effects, with an emphasis on studies of agenda‐setting, and raises questions about who sets the media agenda in light of the 1988 U.S. presidential election. Finally, it draws some conclusions about the influence of the news media in setting political priorities and, thus, influencing the political process in the United States.     

Is There a Niche for Lawyers in the Field of Mediation?

Negotiation Journal -     

Health for All by the Year 2000: What about the nomads?

Health for All by the Year 2000 (HFA/2000) was a goal embraced in 1978 by all countries, especially the developing countries. Therefore to that end, many countries have since established policies and plans to make healthcare accessible to all of their citizens. Such access has come to be regarded as a right, and the last 30 years have seen major growth in national systems of healthcare provision. However, while remarkable advances have been made in both health status and the healthcare sector in general, nomadic people still lag the furthest behind in every field of progress. They continue to be neglected and left out of the development mainstream, including access to health services. Some countries have large nomadic populations, such as Somalia, with more than 60% of its population nomads. All nomads share characteristics which include an unstable life pattern, an interest in livestock, suspicion of outsiders, strong cultural beliefs, and faith in their traditional medicine. Nomads' self-reliance and independence, their sense of identity and community organization, and the predictability of their movements between water-points favor the development of health services. In the interests of equity and social justice, and if HFA/2000 is to become a reality, nomadic people must have equal rights to better healthcare.     

Russia and the role of the OSCE in European security: a ‘Forum’ for dialog or a ‘Battlefield’ of interests?

Abstract

This essay explores Russia's Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) policy, by focusing on two questions. First of all, analysts have noted Russia's disinterest and obstructive policies towards the Organization. Thus, the question is what – if anything – does the Russian Federation still want from the OSCE? Secondly, does the OSCE still serve as a forum for dialog? These two issues are studied on the basis of rational institutionalism and realism. The essay demonstrates that Russia is still interested in the OSCE, but its policy has become more pragmatic, selective and instrumentalist. It includes obstructive and constructive strategies. At the same time, today the Russian Federation ascribes less significance to the Organization in European security. This is predetermined not only by its inability to push its interests through the OSCE, but also by the declining interest of other participating States in the Organization. The differences between OSCE participants have turned it into a battlefield of interests in many areas.