试析城市化对印度可持续发展的影响

城市化是居住在农业地区的人口向城市或非农业中心转移,是每个发达国家在其经济发展过程中经历的必然阶段。随着印度经济的发展,印度也必然经历城市化过程,而且印度的城市化规模在世界城市化史上将是史无前例的。城市是印度发展的基础,城市是印度经济发展的重要载体,城市也是印度经济社会包容性发展的关键。城市是印度社会的一个缩影,是不同社区、不同行业和不同收入阶层的共同的家园,城市在印度经济社会发展中发挥的作用会越来越大。     

The Urban Environment and its Influences on Insurgent Campaigns

For a long time, insurgency was a rural affair. The growing modernization of the modern world, however, shifts conflicts to the cities and requires us to explore the logics of armed struggle in urban environments. This article explores how the urban environment shapes armed conflicts, and argues that insurgents face severe practical constraints when acting in the cities. The urban environment offers the insurgents alternative ways of financing and of operating while close state control impedes them in pursuing a classic strategy of insurgency. Although state control cannot prevent attacks as such, it particularly hampers insurgents in relating to the population and organizing opposition. However, without massive and active support, armed struggle will remain sectarian and, thus, fail to achieve major political changes. This article argues that urban insurgents face a paradoxical relationship with society. While urban insurgents become independent of social support on an operational level, they depend more than ever on spontaneous massive and active social support on a strategic level.     

韩国工业化过程中人口城市化进程的研究

20世纪 50年代以来,随着迅速的国家工业化过程,韩国不仅在较短时间内快速地实现了人口城市化,而且人口城市化进程与国家工业化相互促进、协调发展。工业化、产业结构调整、农业发展政策、工业选址政策以及城市社会经济迅速发展是韩国人口城市化的主要社会经济动因。韩国由集中到分散的城市化模式、通过国土综合开发促进新的城市增长极的形成和发展、发展卫星城镇、工业选址政策、可持续的土地政策等推进人口城镇化的成功经验值得我们借鉴。     

Cities and sustainability: Southeast Asian and European perspectives

While cities are considered to be inherently unsustainable, these urban human settlements will be where a majority of the population will be living in the next two to three decades. Among the ten largest cities in the world in terms of population sizes, three are in Southeast Asia alone and more than one in two people will be living in cities in 2025. These primate cities—Metro-Manila in the Philippines, Jakarta in Indonesia and Bangkok in Thailand—are seeing not only rapid rates of in-migration but also rapid expansion and urban sprawl. Such rapid rates of change pose growing challenges to Southeast Asian cities including smaller capital cities like Kuala Lumpur, Ho Chi Minh City and Singapore. The strongest challenge concern infrastructural provision and particularly that provided for urban transport and mobility. Urban traffic congestion is an issue that is common to most Southeast Asian cities including Singapore which has introduced relatively draconian policy measures to both contain the level of car ownership and the use of the car. A comparison with several European cities highlight where Southeast Asian cities can review their own urban transport policies. This paper focuses on the lessons that can be learnt from a comparative study of the infrastructural provision and public policies that are in place in Southeast Asian and European cities.     

俄国农民难以融入城市社会生活的原因探究——以19世纪末至20世纪初的莫斯科为例

19世纪下半叶,莫斯科步入了新的发展阶段,城市经济迅速发展,各种就业机会增加,每年约有10万外来人口涌入,主要是其腹地的农民。受城市经济发展的不稳定性及制度性制约因素和农民自身传统观念的影响,大多数农民与家乡保持着密切联系。农民与其家乡的密切联系使得他们并没有真正融入城市社会生活。此外,大部分人在来莫斯科以前并没有去过其他任何类型的城市,而且其教育水平和职业技能水平也很低。显然,要使这类农民融入城市社会生活并非易事。     

States and their international relations since 1816: introducing version 2 of the International System(s) Dataset (ISD)

ABSTRACT

We introduce version 2 of the International System(s) Dataset (ISD), a register of sovereign states across the 1816–2016 period that include numerous states that are missed in commonly used datasets like the Correlates of War (COW) Project. Whereas ISD version 1 identified 363 states between 1816 and 2011, version 2 identifies 482. This version also records valuable information on a range of corollary variables, including start dates, end dates, estimated population sizes, diplomatic relations with Europe, conflict episodes, the existence of borders, and the location of capital cities. This dataset makes an important contribution to the study of international relations. It provides a more accurate understanding of the development of the international system over the last two centuries, it moves beyond the Eurocentric bias that sits at the heart of existing quantitative IR scholarship, and it will enable scholars to pursue a range of research topics such as the historical importance of state borders and boundaries, the practices surrounding recognition, and the frequency and intensity of conflict across regions. In this article, we discuss the existing state system membership lists and show how the ISD addresses their shortcomings. We outline the key concept and operationalization of statehood that the ISD adopts. We detail the variables included in this version of the ISD, discuss the data collection process, and show temporal and spatial distributions that illustrate the uniqueness of the ISD. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of bringing the ISD into one of many potential research topics: the study of conflict.     

When Development Is Not Enough: Structural Change,Conflict and Gendered Insecurity

Despite two decades of rapid global economic growth and social modernisation, including increases in gender equity, levels of violence against women remain stubbornly high. Moving beyond conventional liberal views, a growing literature has identified how structural change and conflict associated with economic development can exacerbate women’s physical insecurity. We examine the relationship between development patterns and variation in the Physical Security of Women index—the best available cross-national indicator—to fill the gap in emerging ethnographic, case and survey-based accounts with systematic cross-country assessment. We find that, after controlling for standard explanatory variables, income inequality, urban crowding, corruption, political violence, autocracy and unequal representation of women in politics are associated with more physical insecurity, confirming the relevance of structural change and conflict approaches to development. Correcting the conventional wisdom, high national incomes are associated with greater security for women only if they are well distributed, and the relationship with female labour force participation weakens as women’s work rises. These relationships are robust to the year in which they are measured, and to the introduction of region and time fixed effects. We also demonstrate that gender-based violence has different correlates than generic insecurity.     

Urban Continent,Urban Activism? European Cities and Social Movement Activism

The European Union is currently experiencing a major protest wave. Citizens all over the continent are taking to the streets in droves to express their dissatisfaction with austerity policies, high unemployment, ineffective leadership and other issues. Many of these protests have been centred in large cities, but while some scholarly work notes the expressly urban nature of contemporary social movement activity, no studies test the effect of urban residential status on the likelihood of social movement participation in the presence of other factors. I hypothesise that cities positively influence the prevalence of social movement activity in the countries of the European Union. Using the multilevel 5th wave of the European Social Survey, I examine how urbanity, resources and grievances influence the likelihood of participation in four different forms of activism: wearing a protest badge, boycotting a product, signing a petition and participating in a demonstration. A series of multilevel mixed-effects regression models indicate that resources and urban status best predict the likelihood of participation in the four activities, indicating that cities offer better environments for social movement activity. I conclude with a discussion about European movement activity and urban society.     

日本沿海工业城市的环境再生

当前,随着全球环境危机的日益加深,环境再生已成为一个世界性的课题。战后日本沿海工业城市的兴起,促进了日本经济的高速增长,但也为此付出了沉重的环境代价。目前,这些城市实施的治理环境公害、发展以资源循环利用为中心的新兴产业、重新规划和建设城市临海部以及建设可持续交通体系等措施,就是为了通过实现城市环境再生,达到发展经济和保护环境的双重目的,使市民生活得更为健康、舒适,并保证经济社会的可持续发展。     

Violence in the city that belongs to no one: urban distinctiveness and interconnected insecurities in Nairobi (Kenya)

ABSTRACT

Rapid urbanisation in the global South has prompted attention to the causes and dynamics of urban violence. Yet, much research tends to either analyse urban violence without attention to the broader conflict complexes of which it forms a part, neglecting linkages between different forms of urban violence and between urban and rural dynamics, or conversely study violence in cities without acknowledging the particularities of the urban context. In this article, we conceptualise urban violence, theorise how it is shaped by urban dynamics and explore its manifestations in Nairobi, Kenya. We find that while Nairobi is not uniquely violent inside Kenya, violence takes on distinct urban forms given city-level processes, and also that urban violence has led to policies that increase securitisation and militarisation of the city. Our analysis thus improves knowledge of how criminal and political violence is shaped by and shapes the stability of developing cities.     

Reconstruction and reconciliation: Emerging from transition

I wish first to address some of the simplistic myths about solutions to social conflict, and then reflect on problems that I have experienced with aid efforts organised by the international community, through the UN. In this, I shall focus on Bosnia rather than on Africa. Bosnia, as part of Europe, did not suffer the apathy that characterised international responses to events in Rwanda and Burundi before 1994. The second part of my presentation will address what I see as the flawed assumptions that often underlie the emphasis on economic reconstruction in the wake of war and conflict.     

Comparing urban renewal in Barcelona and Seoul—urban management in conditions of competition among global cities

Cities have become increasingly autonomous economic and political actors which actively respond to the pressures and opportunities of globalisation. Consequently, the urban management of any particular city is often based on the assumption that the city can improve its position against rival cities by efficiently managing its strategic resources and promoting its presumed advantages. Though such an approach to urban management may help cities to improve their global competitiveness and the quality of their residents’ everyday life, it can sometimes result in negative consequences at the local level, thus actually narrowing the development prospects of the cities in the end. This article discusses urban management against the backdrop of the competitive urban policy in Barcelona and Seoul, and compares the local consequences of urban renewal in both cities. Based on a comparison of the two cases of urban renewal, 22@ Activity District in Barcelona and the Cheonggyecheon restoration in Seoul, this article argues that, in conditions of competition among global cities, even very different approaches to urban management and urban renewal may result in similar consequences at the local level.     

西伯利亚地区面临人口危机

俄罗斯经济转轨以来 ,西伯利亚地区人口形势不断恶化 ,已处于危机之中 :人口持续减少 ,劳动潜力被破坏 ,而且 ,据俄专家估计 ,未来 15～ 2 0年西伯利亚人口将继续减少。西伯利亚地区长期存在的劳动力不足问题更加尖锐 ,并对整个俄罗斯构成了威胁。人口问题成为制约西伯利亚地区经济社会发展的突出问题之一和亟待解决的一项首要任务     

Refugees,Economic Capacity,and Host State Repression*

Does hosting refugees affect state repression? While there have been numerous studies that examine the link between refugees and the spread of civil and international conflict, an examination of the systematic links between refugees and repression is lacking. We contend that researchers are missing a crucial link, as the dissent-repression nexus is crucial to understanding the development of armed conflict. Drawing upon logics of the relationship between refugees and the spread of conflict as well as economic capacity, we argue that increased numbers of refugees lead to increased repression. We contend that willingness to increase repression when hosting refugees is in part conditional on a host state’s economic capacity. We argue that, on the whole, the greater the population of refugees in a host state, repression becomes more likely. That said, we argue that increased economic capacity will moderate this relationship. We find empirical support for both predictions.     

东北亚区域人口与可持续发展

在21世纪,人口作为制约东北亚区域经济和社会发展的重要因素,将会显得越来越重要。随着国际经济的日益全球化和区域经济合作的不断发展,积极探索东北亚区域人口与社会、经济、资源、环境相协调的发展道路,将有利于这一区域社会经济的可持续发展。     

Seeing the Lexus for the Olive Trees? Public Opinion,Economic Interdependence,and Interstate Conflict

Many scholars argue that economic interdependence and more extensive economic ties between countries decreases the risk of violent conflict between them. However, despite considerable research on the “capitalist peace” at the macro or dyadic level, there has been less attention to its possible individual-level microfoundations or underpinnings. We argue that public perceptions about economic ties with other states and the costs of conflict should influence the expected constraints on the use of force for leaders. Actual high interdependence and potential economic costs may not suffice to create political constraints on the use of force if people are unaware of the degree of interdependence or fail to understand the benefits of trade and the likely economic costs of disruptive conflict. We examine the linkages between individual perceptions about economic interdependence and their views on conflict and peace through a survey experiment, where we ask respondents in Japan about approval for belligerent actions in a territorial dispute with China and varying information about economic ties. Our findings indicate that greater knowledge and information about economic interdependence affects attitudes about territorial disputes and increases support for peaceful solutions with China.     

Population: a new approach

Questionable assumptions are the basis of the prevailing view on population. It is assumed that rapid population growth is responsible for slums, pollution, poverty, unemployment, and underdevelopment, yet these asserted relationships have no proven scientific basis. Even rapid rates of population growth are not necessarily obstacles to economic development, but the present international economic policies of rich countries are. It also is claimed that population control programs are no substitute for other development assistance, but funds have skyrocketed and agencies mushroomed in the population field, while other development assistance has decreased. The world's economic system functions on the basis of producing short term profit for a few. Under this system, production is inevitably directed towards creating an artificial demand for increasingly useless objects, rather than meeting basic human needs. This leads in turn to wasteful methods of production which seriously harm the environment. The poor nations are essentially relegated to the role of purveyors of raw materials. Such industries as are set up are usually capital-intensive and based on Western technology, rather than labor-intensive. This impairs the ability of these nations to provide full employment and social services would would otherwise lead to lower fertility levels. Current efforts to influence birthrates are directed towards changing people's reproductive behavior. There is little reference to the social and economic factors which determine family size. Yet, it is these factors which will have to be influenced if family size is to be substantially altered. Family planning should be freely available to all, but it is the type of society which will actually determine whether or not people use family planning. The mose effective way to alter population variables is to alter societies so that their people have some hope in the future.     

Financing the peace: Evaluating World Bank post-conflict assistance programs

Does World Bank aid to countries damaged by civil conflict meet its stated goals of speeding economic recovery and reducing the risk of conflict recidivism? We contend that the Bank’s success depends on its ability to bolster and signal the credibility of politicians’ commitments to peaceful politics and tailor its programs to the post-conflict environment. In the first systematic evaluation of World Bank post-conflict assistance, we estimate selection-corrected event history models of the effect of Bank programs on recovery and recurrence using an original dataset of all World Bank programs in post-conflict environments. Among key results, we find that the Bank tends to select aid recipients according to their pre-existing probability of conflict recurrence and that, once we control for this non-random selection, the Bank has no systematic effect on either conflict recurrence or economic recovery.     

城市化抑或华人化——曼德勒华人移民、经济发展与族群关系之研究

曼德勒为缅甸第二大城市,也是上下缅甸交汇之处,人口、物资、信息的频繁流动与多元的族群文化共同构成了曼德勒复杂多样的城市风景。随着缅甸的社会发展与城市化进程,曼德勒的人口构成、社会阶层与城市空间也随之发生转变。华人移民的迁入与增长,引起了曼德勒城市华人化的论争。事实上,曼德勒城市景观的变化,并非华人单一促就,而是现代化、城市化等内外动因共同作用下的社会后果,因此,需综合曼德勒华人移民、经济行为与族群互动,以及三者与城市发展之间的关系来理解曼德勒的城市化,以避免族群民族主义所带来的成见。     

Russia-Georgia Conflict and Beyond

Yet another Post 9/11 historical event indicating a significant turning point in the Post-Cold War era, Russia-Georgia conflict represents a remarkable change in the international strategy of a resurgent Russia. It also signifies that former Soviet republics are still groping for a new identity and that a new round of realignment will persist in the vast Eurasia region. The conflict reveals declining U.S. global control, flawed European integration, and NATO embarrassment. To a certain extent, it exposes chaos brought about by international nonpolarity and world governance vacuum. It also highlights what serious consequences can a double standard inflict on the principles of international law. A reasonable arrangement for global security and economic growth is therefore challenging the resolve and wisdom of international strategists. Actually fierce geopolitical rivalry for energy resources is at work behind the Russia-Georgia conflict. This will further compound the international energy strategic environment.